With the first head-coaching casualty of the 2017 season occurring earlier this week, as the New York Giants fired Ben McAdoo, it's a perfect time to revisit our coaching hot seat model.
Back in August, we estimated the likelihood each head coach could survive a poor 2017 season using a machine learning model based on multiple data points that you can read more about here.
This time around, I'm factoring Football Power Index's current projections of each team's 2017 record into the hot seat model, estimating each coach's chance of being fired based on that projected final showing.
Although the model is highly accurate in aggregate, in individual cases, it's best to think of the probabilities as measuring how unusual or expected it would be for a coach with a similar résumé to be fired, rather than as a definitive prediction. Each situation is unique, and there are factors no quantitative model can consider.
In McAdoo's case, there's no input variable for holding uninspiring news conferences or having heated blowups with respected veterans. In fact, our model gave McAdoo just a 33 percent chance of being fired based on his résumé alone. Still, that is an unusually high number for a second-year coach, especially one a year removed from an 11-5 season that included a playoff appearance. It's that fall from grace that primarily drove McAdoo's firing probability within our model: A coach with lower expectations would have had a better chance of surviving to his third season.
With McAdoo off the board, let's take a look at the current projections heading into Week 14 of the 2017 regular season. Whose seats are hottest?
Chuck Pagano, Indianapolis Colts
Projected record: 4-12
Firing probability: 74 percent
Pagano ranked No. 1 on our preseason list of coaches unlikely to survive a poor season, and that poor season has come to pass. He's the current coach most likely to be fired.
It has been three seasons of steady decline and no playoff appearances since the peak of Pagano's tenure -- an appearance in the 2014 AFC Championship Game. With franchise quarterback Andrew Luck out all season, Pagano might have been given the benefit of the doubt; but Luck's absence has revealed how hollow the team is. The defense, purported to be Pagano's specialty, is ranked dead last in the league in our FPI metrics, at -5.9 points per game.
Pagano is on particularly thin ice, given the presence of new general manager Chris Ballard, who seems likely to begin a coaching search in January.
Hue Jackson, Cleveland Browns
Projected record: 1-15
Firing probability: 69 percent
Surprisingly, Jackson was not among the coaches considered most likely to be fired after a poor 2017 when we did this exercise in August. But that assumed a four-win season, rather than a winless or one-win campaign. Four wins would have represented progress in Cleveland, while 1-15 or 0-16 would not.
Jackson is well-respected. He inherited a dearth of talent. And he has been in the job for just two seasons. Plus, he has been supported by GM Sashi Brown, who chose him to take over the team in 2016. But common wisdom is that at some point, the stigma of losing so many games begins to stick with a coach, and the locker room might benefit from a fresh voice. With season-ticket holders in Cleveland growing more impatient with the Browns, the front office might need to find some new blood on the sideline.
John Fox, Chicago Bears
Projected record: 4-12
Firing probability: 62 percent
According to our model, Fox was fairly lucky to survive last season's 3-13 campaign. Now in his third year with the Bears, he has yet to post a winning record, and the team appears headed in the wrong direction. Rookie quarterback Mitchell Trubisky has not progressed as many observers had hoped, ranking 35th out of 35 qualifying starting quarterbacks in Total QBR. If the team somehow turns a corner and demonstrates dramatic improvement in the final four weeks of the season, it's reasonable that Fox could be retained. Otherwise, this is likely the end of the Fox regime in Chicago.
Bruce Arians, Arizona Cardinals
Projected record: 6-10
Firing probability: 40 percent
If projections hold, 2017 would represent two seasons of consistent decline for the Cardinals since their 13-3 campaign of 2015. Arians can't be blamed for the injury to starting quarterback Carson Palmer, but the team had a losing record (3-4) prior to his absence.
Todd Bowles, New York Jets
Projected record: 6-10
Firing probability: 39 percent
Before the season, Bowles was widely considered to be on the hottest of hot seats. On the heels of last year's 5-11 finish, experts predicted 2017 would be nightmarishly bad for the Jets, due to a purge of significant contributors and lack of depth on the roster. But Bowles' team has outperformed expectations this season and is even likely to improve on 2016's record. If the team finishes strong in the final stretch, Bowles might not only survive for a fourth season, but he could earn a contract extension.
Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati Bengals
Projected record: 7-9
Firing probability: 38 percent
The good news for Lewis is that his 0-6 playoff record is unlikely to get any worse this season, as his Bengals are nearly eliminated from contention. Lewis, now in his 15th season as head coach, has defied odds of being fired several times before, as the Brown family seems to value continuity more than most teams when it comes to the coaching staff. Still, if projections hold, this will be the second consecutive losing season for a coach who has famously failed to notch a playoff victory. It would not be shocking for a coach with that track record to be let go, even by the Bengals.
Bill O'Brien, Houston Texans
Projected record: 6-10
Firing probability: 35 percent
O'Brien shows up on this list only because a season of six or fewer wins would be a disappointing decline from his three straight 9-7 campaigns and back-to-back playoff berths. That said, the model is unaware of how badly injuries have hurt this team or how well rookie phenomenon Deshaun Watson played before being injured. It's unlikely the Texans' front office wants to upset the formula that worked so well before the injuries began to mount.
Vance Joseph, Denver Broncos
Projected record: 5-11
Firing probability: 32 percent
New coaches taking over successful teams are in particularly precarious circumstances. Though Joseph is only in his first year, it has been a bitterly disappointing fall from a 9-7 record in 2016. He's still more likely than not to stay on for at least another season.
Dirk Koetter, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected record: 6-10
Firing probability: 26 percent
Koetter has failed to live up to the heightened expectations that followed a 9-7 showing in his first season at the helm of the Buccaneers. Assuming he gets a third season in Tampa, it will likely be a make-or-break year for him and his staff.
Jay Gruden, Washington Redskins
Projected record: 7-9
Firing probability: 19 percent
This season will mark two consecutive years of decline since the Redskins reached the wild-card round in 2015 under Gruden, who is in his fourth season. It's worth noting that no head coach hired since Dan Snyder bought the franchise in 1999 has made it to a fifth season on the sideline in Washington.
Jason Garrett, Dallas Cowboys
Projected record: 8-8
Firing probability: 17 percent
The Cowboys have fallen well short of sky-high expectations after sensational rookie seasons by quarterback Dak Prescott and running back Ezekiel Elliott in 2016. Elliott's suspension can't be held against Garrett, but the team has not otherwise looked nearly as good as it did in 2016. Garrett is in his seventh full year and has led Dallas to just two winning seasons to date (albeit with only one losing season over that stretch).
A look below at each coach's potential to be replaced at the conclusion of 2017, excluding Giants interim coach Steve Spagnuolo.
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