Way back on Sept. 6, when Aaron Rodgers was healthy, Andrew Luck was on the mend and the Vegas books had the Los Angeles Rams' season win total at six, I locked in predictions for all 256 regular-season games. It seemed futile ... until the early returns came in.
Week 1 came and went: 11-4.
Week 2 was even better: 13-3.
An 11-5 showing in Week 3 pushed my three-week total to 35-12.
It has been a tougher slog since then, and one that will lose traction as injuries mount, which makes this the right time to account for how all 32 teams have fared in relation to what I expected from them on a game-by-game basis before the season, and explore what's next.
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN | CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAC | KC | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | OAK | PHI | PIT | SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WAS
They are who I thought they were!
I've got a 28-4 record on preseason picks through Week 7 for the Redskins -- entering Monday Night Football -- Colts, Browns, 49ers and Broncos.
Washington Redskins (3-2)
Games picked wrong so far (0): None
Full-season prediction: 9-7
I picked the Redskins to beat the Raiders at home in Week 3 without knowing before the season that Oakland would struggle to find its way offensively. The Raiders' issues played a role in Washington winning that game 27-10. My projection had the Redskins ultimately getting to nine wins -- above Vegas' 7.5 over-under total -- even though I had Washington losing twice to Philadelphia.
The fear was that Kirk Cousins' contract situation and a decline in talent at receiver might cause this season to unravel.
That could still happen, but Washington has supported Cousins in other ways. Last season, the Redskins ran the ball less than half the time on early downs when tied or leading outside the final two minutes of halves. The rate is above 60 percent this season, taking pressure off the quarterback. Meanwhile, the Washington defense has improved from 28th last season into the mid-teens this season, as measured by expected points added.
Indianapolis Colts (2-5)
Games picked wrong so far (1): Week 7 home loss to Jaguars
Full-season prediction: 4-12
Eleven days before the 256-game prediction published, an executive from another team offered an interesting possibility for the Colts.
"Wouldn't it be some s--- if they just sat Andrew Luck the whole year and they ended up with the first pick in the draft and they got a haul of picks from some quarterback-desperate team?" the exec asked. "Let's just say Andrew won't be ready to start the season. It makes sense to sit him and put him on PUP. Then he is out 6-8 weeks at a minimum. What if after six weeks they are 0-6? Your season is over at that point."
Luck never landed on PUP, but he missed the first seven games and recently suffered a setback in his rehabilitation from shoulder surgery. I made my predictions assuming Luck might return for some games, but also assuming we could not take for granted his availability or that he would return to his 2016 form. My four-win projection looks pretty good as a result.
Cleveland Browns (0-7)
Games picked wrong so far (1): Week 5 home loss to Jets
Full-season prediction: 2-14
My projection had the Browns winning home games against the Jets and Jaguars, specifically because those teams' quarterback situations seemed problematic. The Browns' quarterback situation was admittedly as bad or worse in the short term. While there was some chance DeShone Kizer would elevate Cleveland, I felt it was unrealistic for him to do that as a rookie. The roster around Kizer appeared too weak. Kizer himself had gone 4-8 and gotten benched at Notre Dame. This was an easy projection that is panning out about as expected.
San Francisco 49ers (0-7)
Games picked wrong so far (1): Week 3 home loss to Rams
Full-season prediction: 2-14
I had the 49ers winning home games against the Rams and Jaguars to finish 2-14, but because they faced no quarterbacks voted into the top tier in my 2017 QB Tiers survey, there was some thought San Francisco could exceed expectations. It was going to require Brian Hoyer overachieving in Kyle Shanahan's offense, and while that has happened at times, the 49ers lost five consecutive games by three or fewer points, setting an NFL record.
Denver Broncos (3-3)
Games picked wrong (1): Week 6 home loss to Giants
Full-season prediction: 8-8
Trevor Siemian was arguably undervalued in QB Tiers voting, but those results gave Denver a quarterback advantage only one time all season, during a Week 14 game against the Jets. Siemian has shown he can be efficient when adequately protected and backed by a decent ground game, but the Broncos haven't been able to provide those things consistently. That was a big fear entering the season. It remains a big fear now.
My projection had the Broncos going 7-1 at home and 1-7 on the road. That has not happened since the 1999 Cowboys did it with current coach Jason Garrett starting two games at QB. The Broncos are on that track so far, however. They are 3-1 at home and 0-2 on the road. That Week 14 game at Indy is looking like the only probable victory away from home.
They are pretty close to who I thought they were
I've got a 39-18 record on preseason picks through Week 7 for the Cardinals, Patriots, Titans, Seahawks, Bengals, Bills, Cowboys, Falcons and Eagles (heading into Monday Night Football).
Arizona Cardinals (3-4)
Games picked wrong (2): Week 6 home victory over Buccaneers; Week 7 loss to Rams in London
Full-season prediction: 8-8
The Cardinals have played in mostly predictable games to this point. Their problems also were predictable, which is why our Aug. 30 piece on the biggest worries facing Arizona required just once sentence: "The hits will keep coming for QB Carson Palmer, leaving him diminished come playoff time." Palmer is more than diminished after suffering a broken arm Sunday.
The Cardinals have now lost Palmer, running back David Johnson and pass-rusher Markus Golden to long-term injuries, making my eight-win season projection tougher to achieve.
New England Patriots (5-2)
Games picked wrong (2): Week 1 home loss to Chiefs; Week 4 home loss to Panthers
Full-season prediction: 14-2
My projection assumed the Patriots would win home games against Kansas City and Carolina even if there was going to be a breaking-in period for veteran newcomers to the team. There was also zero expectation that break-in period would see New England field one of the NFL's very worst defenses for weeks on end. It's a good reminder that teams do not pick up where they left off the previous season, even if New England sometimes makes winning look easy.
New England would have to win out to match my 14-2 projection for the full season. That seems highly unlikely based on what we've seen so far. Then again, what we've seen so far might not match what the Patriots will become. They typically do improve.
Tennessee Titans (4-3)
Games picked wrong (2): Week 1 home loss to Raiders; Week 3 home victory over Seahawks
Full-season prediction: 11-5
My 11-win projection for the Titans suggested optimism, but I've felt like a Titans skeptic based largely on Marcus Mariota's questionable durability. My fear was that Mariota might need time to get all the way back, and that Tennessee might stumble early as a result. Instead, Mariota came back strong and led the Titans to a victory over a Seattle team that was struggling on offense. Mariota then got hurt again, and with his mobility compromised, the Titans had to work hard for victories over Indianapolis and Cleveland.
My 11-win projection seems doable only if Mariota is healthy enough to stick in the lineup. That doesn't seem like the safest bet.
Seattle Seahawks (4-2)
Games picked wrong (2): Week 3 road loss to Titans; Week 7 road victory over Giants
Full-season prediction: 12-4
The Seahawks were 3-5-1 on the road last season, counting playoffs. I figured they would lose the opener at Green Bay (correct), then find a way to win at upstart Tennessee (incorrect) and then fail to solve the Giants' front four in Week 7. That Giants' front was not the same without Olivier Vernon, but Seattle might have won regardless when we consider just how bad and undermanned the Giants have been on offense.
Seattle is now a team on a three-game winning streak that feels more like a three-game losing streak when held against past successes. They trailed Indy and the Giants at halftime, and trailed the Rams through three quarters.
The Seahawks would have to go 8-2 the rest of the way to match my 12-win projection. But injuries to J.J. Watt, Whitney Mercilus, Carson Palmer, David Johnson and Markus Golden make the upcoming schedule look a little easier.
Cincinnati Bengals (2-4)
Games picked wrong (2): Week 1 home loss to Ravens; Week 2 home loss to Texans
Full-season prediction: 10-6
It's all so easy to see now. Why couldn't I see it before the season? The Bengals were sure to struggle out of the gates on offense while facing Baltimore and Houston defenses that were exceptionally formidable at the time. Cincy would be facing these defenses while replacing their two best offensive linemen from last season (Andrew Whitworth, Kevin Zeitler) and while working two rookie draft choices (John Ross, Joe Mixon) into the mix.
The offense was going to improve as the season progressed, but a diminished line was going to work against the consistency Cincy enjoyed in past seasons, at least when healthy. My 10-win projection for the full season appears unrealistic, especially with one Browns game in the rear-view mirror already, and with the Green Bay game falling before Aaron Rodgers' injury.
Buffalo Bills (4-2)
Games picked wrong (2): Week 4 road loss to Falcons; Week 7 home victory over Buccaneers
Full-season prediction: 6-10
There was some thought before the season that Buffalo was signaling a rebuild by trading Sammy Watkins for Jordan Matthews, trading cornerback Ronald Darby for a 2018 third-round pick and watching Stephon Gilmore leave in free agency. The way the Bills have competed -- and won, sometimes unexpectedly -- shows they simply could have been seeking to build around players who better fit coach Sean McDermott's mindset.
Predicting four of the Bills' first six outcomes correctly doesn't mean I had the right read on this team overall. My six-win projection for the full season did include a Week 3 victory over Denver and a disclaimer: "Winning home games against Tampa Bay and Miami would push the Bills nearer to the .500 range in this projection." The victory over Tampa came Sunday.
Dallas Cowboys (3-3)
Games picked wrong (2): Week 4 home loss to Rams; Week 5 home loss to Packers
Full-season prediction: 10-6
My 10-win projection for the Cowboys assumed they would fall off some from 2016. Their offensive line appeared diminished. Ezekiel Elliott was facing a potential suspension. The defense changed over enough personnel to invite questions about whether coordinator Rod Marinelli could pull it together well enough.
The Cowboys scored 30 points against the Rams and 31 against the Packers, losing both those games by a combined nine points. It's oversimplifying things to blame those defensive performances solely on Sean Lee's injury absence from the lineup, but Dallas' performance with him on the field has certainly been better. The numbers from Week 7 are not yet in, but through Week 6, the Cowboys allowed 6.7 yards per pass attempt and 3.6 yards per carry when Lee was on the field, compared to 7.1 yards per pass and 5.9 yards per rush without him.
Philadelphia Eagles (5-1)
Games picked wrong (2): Week 4 road victory over Chargers; Week 6 road victory over Panthers
Full-season prediction: 9-7
My nine-win season projection for the Eagles seems conservative after Philly pulled off close road victories over the Chargers and Panthers. I had them sweeping Washington on their way to a 6-3 record before stumbling down the stretch against Dallas (Week 11), Seattle (Week 13), the Giants (Week 15) and Oakland (Week 16).
A late-season Eagles stumble still could be coming. They are 2-0 in games decided by three or fewer points and figure to have some of those outcomes go against them ultimately. But if Carson Wentz is as improved as he appears to be, the Eagles could possess a level of insurance that was unavailable to them in 2016. Wentz has been dramatically more productive as a third-down passer through this 5-1 start compared to the 4-2 start last season. That largely explains why his third-down Total QBR is 93.7, compared to 31.4 at this point last season.
Atlanta Falcons (3-3)
Games picked wrong (2): Week 4 home loss to Buffalo; Week 5 home loss to Miami
Full-season prediction: 11-5
It was reasonable to expect Matt Ryan to regress from his 2016 MVP status back to previous form, when he averaged 27 touchdown passes and 15 interceptions per season from 2011-15 (that was part of another projection). It was a stretch to think Ryan and the Falcons would fall off enough for Buffalo and Miami to beat them in Atlanta. That has happened.
My full-season projection had the Falcons going 8-0 at home and 3-5 on the road. They are already 1-2 at home and regressing, but the talent is there on offense for the Falcons to hit their stride again. They might need the points. They entered the season playing the NFL's fourth-toughest lineup of opposing quarterbacks based on 2017 QB Tiers voting, and still must play road games against teams featuring Cam Newton, Drew Brees and Russell Wilson.
They are not quite who I thought they were
My record falls to 36-30 on game-by-game preseason picks through Week 7 for the Vikings, Packers, Bears, Chiefs, Raiders, Jets, Lions, Saints, Texans and Buccaneers.
Minnesota Vikings (5-2)
Games picked wrong (3): Week 4 home loss to Lions; Week 5 road victory over Bears; Week 6 home win over Packers
Full-season prediction: 8-8
The Vikings have been a difficult team to figure, with Sam Bradford leaving the lineup indefinitely and Dalvin Cook leaving the lineup for the full season. Case Keenum has been better than expected in his five replacement starts, ranking sixth in Total QBR while taking only four sacks. Can he perform at this level for the long haul? The Vikings should reach my eight-win season projection regardless.
Keenum has twice started more than five games in a season. He went 0-8 with Houston in 2008, when the Texans could not provide him with the defensive support available to him in Minnesota (Houston was 28th in defensive EPA that season, while the Vikings are 12th).
Keenum also started nine games with the Rams last season, winning three of his first four before losing four of his last five. What happened in Los Angeles last season said more about the situation -- think "Hard Knocks," bad line, no receiving talent, lame-duck coach, franchise relocation and no unified offensive vision -- than it said about many of the players involved.
Green Bay Packers (4-3)
Games picked wrong (3): Week 5 road victory over Cowboys; Week 6 road loss to Vikings; Week 7 home loss to Saints
Full-season prediction: 12-4
There was no predicting if or when the Packers might lose Aaron Rodgers to a significant injury. Rodgers' superb play early in the season helped the Packers win a road game against Dallas that I had placed in the loss column. Rodgers' absence from the lineup Sunday explained away the Packers' home loss to New Orleans.
There is not much more to say, except that my 12-win projection for the season isn't going to hold up.
Chicago Bears (3-4)
Games picked wrong (3): Week 3 home victory over Steelers; Week 5 home loss to Vikings; Week 6 road victory over Ravens
Full-season prediction: 5-11
Chicago defeated Carolina in Week 7, or was that in the year 7 B.C.? John Fox and the Bears went prehistoric on us by becoming the first team since at least 1940 to win by 14-plus points while completing no more than four passes, attempting no more than seven and taking at least four sacks, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com.
While I did have the Bears winning that Carolina game, I also had them with only five wins all season. They're at three already, and while there was nothing at all sustainable about what happened Sunday, this Bears team will run the ball, play defense and steal a few victories.
Kansas City Chiefs (5-2)
Games picked wrong (3): Week 1 road victory over Patriots; Week 5 road victory over Texans; Week 6 home loss to Steelers
Full-season prediction: 10-6
No part of me thought Alex Smith would reach Week 8 on pace to finish the regular season with 34 touchdowns passes and zero picks. That is how his 15 touchdowns and zero interceptions project across a full regular season. Smith has already completed six passes traveling at least 30 yards past the line of scrimmage, matching his career high for an entire season.
Regression seems inevitable, but the Chiefs still should reach my 10-win projection, which was one victory over Vegas' win total.
Oakland Raiders (3-4)
Games picked wrong (3): Week 1 victory over Titans; Week 5 home loss to Ravens; Week 6 home loss to Chargers
Full-season prediction: 11-5
The Raiders have yet to develop the running game that helped sustain their breakout 2016 season, which is why their unpredictability goes beyond Derek Carr missing 74 of 208 offensive snaps during their four-game losing streak.
In retrospect, we might have figured the offense could experience growing pains with a new coordinator, a new running back in Marshawn Lynch and an offensive line that spent much of camp without left tackle Donald Penn, who was holding out. There were fewer outward signs the Raiders would change their blocking schemes as much as they appear to have changed them. However, with a young first-time coordinator (Todd Downing) and a veteran high-profile line coach (Mike Tice), some unpredictability could be expected.
New York Jets (3-4)
Games picked wrong (3): Week 3 home victory over Dolphins; Week 4 road victory over Jaguars; Week 5 road victory over Browns
Full-season prediction: 0-16
I picked the Jets to lose every game without thinking they would actually go 0-16. Trying to guess which games the Jets might win seemed like a riskier alternative than trying to pinpoint in advance the Week 3 game against Miami more than the Week 4 game against Jacksonville or some other game in December.
The Jets did not deserve better coming off last season, but they do now in retrospect. They have competed hard and played better than they played through much of last season, when their payroll was much higher.
My biggest Jets fear was that Josh McCown's disregard for his own body would land him on injured reserve, forcing the Jets to play much of the season with Christian Hackenberg or whoever else. Who could forget the Jets launching McCown into full helicopter orbit back when he was with the Browns in 2015? But after scrambling on 5.0 percent of pass plays during his starts from 2007-15, McCown has scrambled at a lower rate. He scrambled twice in 137 pass plays last season (1.5 percent) and has scrambled on seven of 248 (2.8 percent) this season.
Detroit Lions (3-3)
Games picked wrong (3): Week 2 road victory over Giants; Week 4 road victory over Vikings; Week 5 home loss to Panthers
Full-season prediction: 8-8
My projection had the Lions starting 2-4 before beating Pittsburgh at home in Week 8 as part of a rally toward an 8-8 finish.
Rodgers' injury could make Detroit the only team scheduled to face Packers backup Brett Hundley twice during the regular season, although that would change if Rodgers returned in time for the teams' Week 17 meeting.
The Lions also face the offensively challenged Bears (twice), Ravens and Browns. They could use the reprieve. They have already gone 0-3 against NFC South teams featuring Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Cam Newton at quarterback. They do not face Jameis Winston's Buccaneers 'til Week 14, which could work against them if Tampa Bay rights itself offensively by then.
New Orleans Saints (4-2)
Games picked wrong (3): Week 3 road victory over Panthers; Week 4 road victory over Dolphins; Week 7 road victory over Packers
Full-season prediction: 8-8
The Saints have won three road games I had them losing, including the one Sunday featuring Hundley in the Packers' lineup instead of Rodgers. That puts them on pace to exceed my eight-win season projection for them.
For years, Drew Brees has set the Saints' floor at seven victories, even when the defense was historically bad. That floor will rise as the Saints' defense improves.
New Orleans is allowing 10.3 fewer points per game than the team allowed through six games last season, down from a league-worst 32.5 to an 18th-ranked 22.2. That change marks the NFL's largest year-over-year improvement through six games (Jaguars 8.3). It also puts the Saints' defense within striking distance of where it was when the team was contending for the Super Bowl and winning one.
Houston Texans (3-3)
Games picked wrong (3): Week 1 home loss to Jaguars; Week 2 road victory over Bengals; Week 5 home loss to Chiefs
Full-season prediction: 7-9
The Texans went into the season with Tom Savage at quarterback, replaced him with Deshaun Watson and then lost two-thirds of the NFL's best pass-rushing trio when J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus suffered season-ending injuries. Left tackle Duane Brown also continues to hold out much later than players almost ever hold out.
These things have made the Texans volatile enough to allow 10 sacks at home to Jacksonville and then put up 57 points on Tennessee in a span of 22 days.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-4)
Games picked wrong (3): Week 4 home victory over Giants; Week 6 road loss to Cardinals; Week 7 road loss to Bills
Full-season prediction: 9-7
The Buccaneers sacked opposing quarterbacks on 6.2 percent of pass plays last season, good for a No. 9 ranking. They rank 32nd by a wide margin this season at 2.9 percent, which would rank 540th out of 543 defenses since 2001. So, while Tampa Bay probably expected to rank better than 13th in offensive points per game (21.8) after loading up at receiver and tight end, that figure through Week 7 is more tolerable than some of the defensive measuring sticks.
My projection had the Bucs at nine victories while asking whether Jameis Winston would play his way out of Tier 3, which is where 2017 QB Tiers voters had him over the summer. That seemed important for a team that was scheduled to play a league-high 10 games against quarterbacks in the top two tiers. Rodgers' injury reduces that number to nine, but if the Tampa Bay defense does not improve significantly, Winston will have to carry even more of the load. That could be scary for a team without a rock-solid running game.
These teams have kept me guessing
I've got a 21-34 record on game-by-game preseason picks through Week 7 for the Ravens, Steelers, Rams, Panthers, Chargers, Dolphins, Jaguars and Giants
Baltimore Ravens (3-4)
Games picked wrong (4): Week 1 road victory over Bengals; Week 4 home loss to Steelers; Week 5 road victory over Raiders; Week 6 home loss to Bears
Full-season prediction: 7-9
I called my seven-win projection for the Ravens optimistic with Joe Flacco battling back problems, especially with such a weak supporting cast. But I still figured the Ravens might extend to six their home winning streak over Ben Roethlisberger (they did not). I figured they would lose at Oakland, not knowing EJ Manuel would be the Raiders' quarterback that day. And I figured the Ravens would win at home against Chicago (wrong).
The Ravens are as inconsistent as they were projected to be, which makes it tough to know which games they'll win or lose.
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2)
Games picked wrong (4): Week 3 road loss to Bears; Week 4 road victory over Ravens; Week 5 home loss to Jaguars; Week 6 road victory over Chiefs
Full-season prediction: 12-4
Ben Roethlisberger has not even roughly approximated the quarterback who trailed only Tom Brady and Rodgers in 2017 QB Tiers balloting. That has made the Steelers a difficult team to trust from week to week, but this team could be good enough to win without Roethlisberger carrying the load every week.
Le'Veon Bell is back in peak form following a slow start. The defense ranks second in points allowed per drive, fourth in three-and-out rate, fifth in expected points and sixth in offensive touchdowns allowed. It won't be a shock at all if the Steelers reach my 12-win projection, which was higher than Vegas' 10.5-win total.
Los Angeles Rams (5-2)
Games picked wrong (4): Week 3 road victory over 49ers; Week 4 road victory over Cowboys; Week 6 road victory over Jaguars; Week 7 victory over Cardinals in London
Full-season prediction: 3-13
What the Rams are doing was always possible, but there was little reason to give them the benefit of the doubt entering the season. They had a 31-year-old rookie head coach and a second-year quarterback who had appeared lost as a rookie.
We needed to see Jared Goff function within a balanced offense featuring improved weaponry. Once that happened, we could adjust our expectations accordingly. I've certainly had to do that after putting down the Rams for only three victories. Going through the schedule now, it's not hard envisioning the Rams reaching double-digit victories.
The Rams rank eighth in both offensive and defensive expected points heading into their bye. They were 31st and 14th, respectively, through seven games last season. They also have 54 points off turnovers, 12 more than they scored all last season. That is one variable to watch.
Carolina Panthers (4-3)
Games picked wrong (4): Week 3 home loss to Saints; Week 4 road victory over Patriots; Week 5 road victory over Lions; Week 6 home loss to Eagles
Full-season prediction: 9-7
The Panthers are a volatile team with a quarterback who can be spectacular or ineffective depending on the week. I had them down for nine victories overall, pointing to Newton as the key variable while navigating a schedule featuring six games against Tier 1 quarterbacks, tied with Tampa Bay for most in the league.
That figure appears overstated in retrospect now that the Falcons' offense is struggling. Will Rodgers be back in the lineup for Green Bay when the Packers visit Carolina in Week 15?
Los Angeles Chargers (3-4)
Games picked wrong (4): Week 2 home loss to Dolphins; Week 4 home loss to Eagles; Week 5 road victory over Giants; Week 6 road victory over Raiders
Full-season prediction: 7-9
The Chargers' 0-4 start included nonsensical defeats featuring wayward field-goal tries from a rookie kicker and growing pains for a rookie head coach. My seven-win projection for the season seems reasonable for a team with a streaky veteran quarterback, a questionable running game and standout pass-rushing talent.
I did not predict a Week 8 victory at New England, and do not wish to change my projection now.
Miami Dolphins (4-2)
Games picked wrong (4): Week 2 road victory over Chargers; Week 3 road loss to Jets; Week 4 home loss to Saints; Week 6 road victory over Falcons
Full-season prediction: 8-8
I has been a wild and unpredictable season for the Dolphins. I had them going 4-2 to start the season, but not this way. My projection had them beating the Saints and Titans while sweeping the Jets instead of splitting with them. It had them going 8-8 overall.
No projection could have included the Dolphins winning in Atlanta several days after firing their offensive line coach following a scandal uncovered by a self-proclaimed model based out of Las Vegas. On the field, few could have foreseen Miami averaging 14.2 offensive points per game. That figure is rising, and will almost surely continue to rise, but for now, it ranks 157th out of 160 offenses in the past five seasons, with the 2016 Rams (13.6) as the only team worse over a full season since then.
The Dolphins will now proceed with Matt Moore instead of the injured Jay Cutler at quarterback, a seemingly small adjustment for a team that has made many already.
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-3)
Games picked wrong (4): Week 1 road victory over Texans; Week 4 road loss to Jets; Week 5 road victory over Steelers; Week 6 home loss to Rams; Week 7 road victory over Colts
Full-season prediction: 6-10
The Jaguars have a league-leading defense (No. 1 in EPA) and a powerful running game, which means they should finish at least .500 if their quarterback does not lose games regularly. Their offseason moves to add Calais Campbell on defense and Leonard Fournette on offense carried high price tags, but the payoff has been immediate, substantial and beyond my expectations.
I didn't trust Blake Bortles enough to project the Jaguars with more than six victories, but that is obviously a low projection at this point.
"Their culture of toughness is showing up," a veteran coach said Sunday.
New York Giants (1-6)
Games picked wrong (5): Week 2 home defeat to Lions; Week 4 road loss to Buccaneers; Week 5 home loss to Chargers; Week 6 road victory over Broncos; Week 7 home loss to Seahawks
Full-season prediction: 11-5
We knew the Giants would struggle to run the football. We knew the offensive line could flounder, at least for a while. I thought a top-five defense and a veteran quarterback surrounded by potentially dynamic weaponry would vault the Giants back into double-digit victories against a schedule featuring zero Tier 1 quarterbacks.
That didn't happen. The Giants needed to win a couple of the close games they lost, stick together and grind their way through a tough NFC East. Instead, they lost those close games -- three in a row by 10 combined points -- and then they lost their most important receiving weaponry.
Game over. Column over. Enjoy the Eagles' projected victory over the Redskins on Monday night, and if the Redskins win, just remember we told you so.