ESPN senior writer Mike Sando asks league insiders to pick winners in selected games each week. Three evaluators joined the panel for Week 7. This week's selected games: Chiefs-Raiders, Jets-Dolphins, Broncos-Chargers, Falcons-Patriots and Redskins-Eagles.
Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders
Thursday: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS | Point spread: KC by 3 | PickCenter
While the Chiefs have been an offensive machine with cohesive coaching over multiple seasons, the Raiders have gone backward on offense after their January firing of coordinator Bill Musgrave. It's too early to know for sure whether Oakland made the wrong move, especially because quarterback Derek Carr hasn't been healthy. But the two insiders picking Kansas City to win at Oakland on a short week think the Raiders are paying a price for the change.
"Why disrupt a 12-4 team?" one of the insiders picking Kansas City asked. "The Raiders played very well last year and kept getting better. The other thing is, the Chiefs are second in scoring. They have so many weapons to cover: The quarterback [Alex Smith] is playing among the best in the league, they have the running back [Kareem Hunt], they have Tyreek Hill, they have the tight end [Travis Kelce]."
The insider picking Oakland did not sound confident. He is banking on the Raiders' desperation carrying the night. He also thinks the Raiders have needed two things in combination that they have too frequently lacked this season: run-pass balance on early downs with a healthy Carr in the lineup. The quarterback's return from injury gives Oakland that chance.
"I want to pick Oakland in this one, just because of the desperation and they are at home," this insider said. "Ultimately, it is the health of Carr that carries it all. It's like [Marcus] Mariota and the Titans, too. One way of protecting him is to get that balance."
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
Sunday: 1 p.m. ET, Fox | Point spread: MIA by 3 | PickCenter
At one point before the season, the Jets were the only NFL team not favored to win any of its regular-season games. The odds suggested they would win at least a couple, but in picking outcomes for all 256 games before the season, I abstained from picking the Jets to win any single one. Now they're 3-3 and have run more offensive plays per game while leading than Green Bay, Tennessee, Detroit and Miami -- among others. Todd Bowles for Coach of the Year?
"The one thing about the Jets is, their defensive front is good and their young safeties have been playing really well together," one of the insiders said. "And actually, their receiving corps has had some explosives, with [Jeremy] Kerley and Robby Anderson."
All three insiders picked the Dolphins to win even though Miami is averaging 12.2 points per game, which is last in the league by 3.5 points per game. The Jets are 26th at 18.2 points per game.
"Todd Bowles is a good defensive coach, but his MO since he was in Arizona has been to come in with exotic looks and blitzes, and when you blitz-package [Miami coach] Adam Gase and junk it up for [Miami QB] Jay [Cutler], Jay does well," an insider said. "Jay gets into trouble in coverage-type situations. Miami will hit you with screen games, which gives Jay the potential to kill you in those situations."
When Atlanta sent five or more pass-rushers on Sunday, Cutler completed 12 of 15 passes for 109 yards and a touchdown. The Jets have sent five or more 35.2 percent of the time, the seventh-highest rate in the league.
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS | Point spread: LAC by 1 | PickCenter
Two of the three insiders are picking Denver to bounce back from its ugly home loss to the then-winless Giants. The insiders noted that quarterback Trevor Siemian can do enough to win if the Broncos establish a productive enough ground game to ensure balance. That seems especially important against a Chargers defense that leads the NFL in third-down sack rate (19 percent) while allowing a league-high 5.6 yards per rush on early downs outside a goal-line context.
"The Chargers are a team that, every time I look at them, I wonder how they are not better than what they are," one of the insiders said. "They have so many tight games and they end up losing. I'm going to pick Denver, but that one might be closer than the experts expect."
The Chargers are 1-3 in games decided by three points or fewer this season. Only the 49ers have played in more of those games, losing all five of them -- Cleveland is 0-3 and Indianapolis is 2-1 among teams with three or more games decided by three points or fewer.
"Denver has been killing people because they have been able to establish the run game and then Siemian is able to create off the run game," an insider picking the Broncos said. "Going against New York, they were never able to establish the run game because that interior line just matches up so well against Denver's offensive line. When they shut that down, Denver didn't have a good counter because [Giants cornerback] Janoris Jenkins is so good in coverage."
The Chargers have the pass-rushing personnel to get after Siemian, provided they can shut down Denver's running game.
"I'll take the Chargers," another insider said. "The Broncos' D is good, but the Chargers have [Melvin] Ingram and [Joey] Bosa. We have faced them. They were tough, man. They are high up in sacks. Those are drive killers. The Broncos fell on their face against the Giants and the Chargers have had all these close losses."
Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots
Sunday: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC | Point spread: NE by 3.5 | PickCenter
NFL teams leading by 17-plus points have a 145-7 record since the start of last season, counting the playoffs. The Falcons account for a league-high 15 of those games. They also account for a league-high three of those losses, including their notorious Super Bowl LI collapse against New England and their 20-17 loss to Miami on Sunday.
"One piece to that is, they are a simple scheme defensively and they try to let their pass-rushers loose, especially when they are playing with a lead, and if the pass-rush does not get home, they are vulnerable," one of the insiders said. "I just was surprised last week that they weren't able to put more points up on Miami. I very well could see Atlanta take a lead, 10 points or so, even at halftime, and then I could see a Tom Brady comeback in the end to win it."
Atlanta QB Matt Ryan is one of five starting quarterbacks this season whose total for touchdown passes (six) does not exceed his total for interceptions (six). The Patriots have allowed 14 touchdown passes against five interceptions so far. The winless Browns are the only team to allow as many scoring passes this season.
"People are understating the value of what [49ers coach] Kyle Shanahan did when he was there [as the Falcons' offensive coordinator]," one of the insiders said. "The stuff they were doing on offense was pretty rare. They were almost balanced, heavier on the run, and eating off chunks of yardage in the passing game. And distributing the ball to everybody, yet letting their big dog eat when it was time. Coordinators can't do that. Look, the 49ers are terrible, but they are in every game because the guy is a freaking good offensive playcaller."
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles
Monday: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN | Point spread: PHI by 5 | PickCenter
All three insiders picked Washington (3-2) to beat Philadelphia (5-1) in Philly, which could mean Eagles fatigue has arrived in full. It also could mean the Redskins are earning respect. Both themes have been prominent in conversations with coaches and evaluators.
"Everyone is riding high on Philly right now," one of the insiders said, "but I feel like, let's wait and see with them, especially after last year. I think Washington defensively is sneaky good, especially in the pass game. I don't know if [Redskins cornerback] Josh Norman is back yet, but their mix with their rush and coverage is actually pretty good."
Norman, who fractured a rib against the Chiefs in Week 4, could return, but the Redskins just put defensive lineman Jonathan Allen (foot) on injured reserve.
"When [Redskins assistant head coach Bill] Callahan wants to get it going and [head coach Jay] Gruden sticks to it, the Redskins can clearly run the ball," one of the insiders said.
Washington is running the ball 53 percent of the time on early downs. That's the fourth-highest rate in the NFL and a big increase from last season, when Washington ranked 25th at 41 percent. The difference in percentage points remains in double digits after removing plays when the Redskins were trailing and potentially more apt to throw.
"This will be a fun game," an insider said. "I do like the Eagles' defense, but a lot of things swing back to .500 in this league, and I wonder how many times the Eagles can keep winning."