If you've ever seen X-rays from collarbone injuries, you know the unsightly images can look like a jagged Wall Street graph after the stock market takes a big tumble. The visual also applies to a suddenly volatile NFC race after the Green Bay Packers announced the terrible news that a broken right collarbone will sideline quarterback Aaron Rodgers, quite possibly for the season.
When Rodgers plays, the Packers are the one team in the NFC with a quarterback great enough for the team to contend without much help from the defense and/or conventional running game. With Rodgers out, we stacked all 16 NFC teams into one of four groupings in what was already looking like a pretty wide-open conference.
"This is as open as I can remember it in a lot of years, because it is hard to say who the top one or two teams are in the conference," an evaluator said. "Usually, you would put the Packers and someone else -- Seattle, maybe -- that you feel strongly about. You just don't feel as strongly about those teams this year."
We start with the leading contenders, including three that have been to the Super Bowl recently with many of the same key players in place, including quarterbacks who have shown they can win playoff games with sufficient support. Every one of these teams is flawed enough to trade places with teams below them, which is why this NFC race will be a difficult one to handicap.
Leading contenders
These are the teams with either the pedigrees or upsides (or both) to factor in a wide-open conference. The Packers would be here with Rodgers.
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle's winning formula includes a top-five defense, a quarterback whose resourcefulness shows up in two-minute situations and a strong running game that drives explosive plays. The running game has not been there and might not return now that Chris Carson is on injured reserve.
The Seahawks had just one explosive play -- defined here as a run gaining at least 12 yards or a pass gaining at least 16 -- in their latest game. That was their lowest total in a game during the Russell Wilson era and their lowest since having two against Arizona in the 2012 opener, which marked Wilson's first NFL game.
"They are built on defense and the run game," a veteran coach said. "A lot of times, it takes more weeks for that run game to jell. They have a quarterback who can pull rabbits out of hats. They can still get it right, and if they play playoff games at home, they will be right there in the end."
Philadelphia Eagles
Carson Wentz ranked 21st over the summer in our 2017 QB Tiers survey of 50 NFL coaches and evaluators, but there was every expectation he'd be climbing up the list in a hurry. One general manager even thought Wentz in 2017 could join the top tier, reserved this year for Rodgers, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees and Matt Ryan (barely). A defensive coach said he thought that was tremendously premature.
"My eyes work better than my ears," this coach said. "Philly is good because they have an offensive-oriented head coach [Doug Pederson] who turns the entire defense over to a really good defensive coordinator [Jim Schwartz], they pressure the passer, play nasty D and have a young quarterback who has really made some strides."
It's less ambitious to say Wentz is making the jump from the third tier into the second, which is generally reserved for quarterbacks who carry their teams some of the time but not consistently -- guys who can contribute significantly to a championship formula.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons have already lost at home to Buffalo and Miami. They barely won at Chicago and Detroit. Matt Ryan has six touchdowns with six interceptions through five games. He had 12 TDs with two picks at the same point last season. This affirms fears that this offense would not be the same for various reasons, including Kyle Shanahan's departure as coordinator.
The outlook could worsen in the short term, with Atlanta playing four of its next five on the road, including games against New England, Carolina and Seattle. But there's enough talent (including young talent) in key spots for the Falcons to contend. They beat Green Bay when Rodgers was in the lineup.
"They have one of the better head coaches in the league coming into his prime, they play for each other, they fight and compete, they have a high-end quarterback and just need more time for [offensive coordinator Steve] Sarkisian to know all the weapons well," said a coach who faced the Falcons this season. "They played [in a Week 6 home loss to Miami] without [Mohamed] Sanu, and Julio [Jones] is already hurt with a hip flexor [injury], so those are things to watch."
Carolina Panthers
Carolina will be dangerous as long as the defense ranks near the top of the league and Cam Newton is at quarterback. However, Luke Kuechly's concussion issues and Newton's inconsistency can be season-altering flaws.
"If [defensive coordinator Steve] Wilks keeps channeling [Sean] McDermott, they have a chance to make a run," a veteran coach said. "It seems like they have about 125 run plays designed for their quarterback, though, and if they overdo that, get him nicked up, they are screwed just like the Packers."
Hard as it might be to fathom, Carolina has had only two .500-or-better seasons out of six with Newton at quarterback. The Panthers ranked among the NFL's top six in both points allowed and defensive expected points added (EPA) during those two successful seasons. They were poor on defense in the other years, and the offense with Newton wasn't consistently good enough to make them winners anyway.
So you're telling me there's a chance
These five teams appear good enough to make some noise, but it's a little early to start talking about a deeper run. Four of the five have quarterbacks with playoff experience.
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams have won three times on the road and nearly pulled off home victories over Washington and Seattle. The upcoming schedule looks favorable enough for the Rams to fight their way into the 8-8 area this season -- better if Jared Goff progresses further. But there is still debate over the Rams
"I would put the Rams before Dallas," a GM said. "Then I would have New Orleans in that mix, too, because they are hot offensively."
While a personnel director thought it was too early to place the Rams in this group, an analytics director agreed with the GM. Neither was willing to anoint Goff just yet, but they had seen enough to place the Rams in this category.
Count me among those who went into the season optimistic about head coach Sean McVay for the long term but figuring he would face a learning curve at age 31, especially while walking into an organization that hasn't won for so long. I thought there was a chance Goff might be unsalvageable after a brutal rookie season. Sammy Watkins' durability seemed questionable. Throw in Aaron Donald's holdout and it was easy to find reasons why the Rams would not succeed.
"They just keep winning, and they win on the road," an evaluator said. "They have a good defensive coordinator [Wade Phillips], and that head coach knows how to move an offense. They run the ball, he gets the ball out of Goff's hands quickly, there's a lot of play-action stuff, so I have seen enough to say they are good enough to win with Goff right now."
The defense does not look great, but there is pass-rushing talent on the roster and capacity to improve under a veteran coordinator. How much the defense improves and Goff progresses will determine whether the Rams join the upper tiers.
Washington Redskins
Games against Philadelphia, Dallas, Seattle, Minnesota and New Orleans over the next five weeks will reveal where the Redskins stand. Their defense appears improved. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has fared better than he could have after losing receivers Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson.
"Washington has a good team," said a GM who thought the Redskins belonged in the group with the Falcons, Eagles, Seahawks and Packers. "I watched them against Kansas City and they are physical up front -- O-line and D-line. They are pretty good. Cousins is good. They are pretty good in the secondary."
Dallas Cowboys
The drama swirling around the Cowboys has been consuming, even by Jerry Jones' standards. While subtracting Ezekiel Elliott for six games hurts the offense, it also temporarily removes from the equation a leading source of that drama in Dallas.
Can the Cowboys silence the noise sufficiently to stabilize their season, improve steadily and finish strong? Yeah, they can, but there are some factors working against them. The offensive line isn't as talented as it was last season, Elliott is a question mark, Dez Bryant hasn't dominated in some time and the defense is perpetually striving to be better than the sum of its parts.
Detroit Lions
If Rodgers does miss the season, Detroit will be the only team to play two games against Green Bay with a backup quarterback in the Packers' lineup. That could give the Lions a one- or two-game boost in the standings. They also could soon welcome back left tackle Taylor Decker from the shoulder injury he suffered in June. If a return by Decker stabilizes the Lions up front, Detroit could gain momentum late in the season, win the division and break through in the playoffs, provided Decker's return lets Matthew Stafford get healthy.
Stafford has protected the ball well enough over the past couple of seasons to make his five-turnover performance in New Orleans on Sunday feel more like an aberration than part of a pattern. He didn't play as well when injured late last season, however, and if his leg injuries drove his struggles Sunday, it's fair to wonder whether his play will continue to suffer while his rehab continues.
The Lions could be more dependent on Stafford than the Packers are dependent on Rodgers. They won't contend if he is diminished.
New Orleans Saints
The Drew Brees-era Saints have always won when their defense wasn't terrible. They were 58-22 with a Super Bowl victory in the five full regular seasons in which they allowed no more than 21.3 points per game. They allowed at least 24 points per game in the six other Brees-era seasons, compiling a 43-53 record that would have been much worse with an average quarterback.
So far this season, the Saints' defense has been all over the place -- which is still better than the historically bad unit it has been in recent years -- especially with the unit's performance improving dramatically of late. The Saints' three defensive touchdowns during their 52-38 victory over Detroit on Sunday set a franchise record. With any kind of sustained defensive improvement as the season progresses, New Orleans can become dangerous.
Stranger things have happened, but ...
These teams have some of the pieces in place but enough question marks to keep them from the upper tiers.
Minnesota Vikings
They are good enough on defense to compete as long as their offense continues to overachieve. There are usually diminishing returns with a backup quarterback in the lineup over an extended period, and with running back Dalvin Cook on injured reserve, this offense will have a hard time being explosive enough.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The upgrades Tampa Bay made at the offensive skill positions made them a tantalizing candidate for a breakthrough season.
Quarterback Jameis Winston risks the football too freely, which is why he ranks second-to-last in interception rate since 2015 among the 19 quarterbacks with at least 1,000 attempts over that span (Ben Roethlisberger fell into the 19th spot over the past two weeks, so the company could be worse for Winston). Winston is now hurt, and he won't have a bye week to recuperate.
On the other side of the ball, the Buccaneers' pass rush has too frequently been invisible. Their 3.0 percent sack rate through five games ranks 151st out of 160 defenses over the past five seasons.
Arizona Cardinals
Losing David Johnson and Markus Golden knocked the Cardinals down a few notches. Multiple coaches and evaluators thought the Cardinals were in serious trouble despite what happened Sunday. Adrian Peterson looked five years younger in his Arizona debut, a 38-33 victory over the Buccaneers. Perhaps the Cardinals can build on that, but they need stability.
You might wonder why the Arizona can look great some weeks and horrible other weeks. An offensive coordinator from another team offered some insight during a conversation in the days after Arizona faced Dallas in Week 3. He said Arizona's willingness to drop back and throw without as much regard for pass protection makes the Cardinals an extremely volatile team.
"There is no protecting the line," this coordinator said. "That is why sometimes they can blow people right out of the water and it's not even close early in the game. But if it is close, it can be tough."
Green Bay Packers (without Rodgers)
The Packers are built to win with Rodgers. It's unfair to expect success with a backup such as Brett Hundley in the lineup, but multiple evaluators thought Green Bay could be better than expected with Hundley behind center. But, they weren't betting on it.
"Most teams default to their defense and run game when their starting quarterback is hurt," a dissenting coach with NFC North experience said. "That formula is not available in Green Bay. They haven't squared away the run game. They threw the ball 118 times in the first two weeks of the season. The average pro game is 64 plays. That is how much they rely on Rodgers, and in this day and age, it's not like the backup has been getting extensive snaps."
An evaluator said he liked Hundley and wished his team had selected the former UCLA quarterback.
"I'm excited to see what he looks like," this evaluator said. "Can they go 5-5 the rest of the way and then be 9-7 and in the hunt? That is reasonable."
Not in the picture
For one reason or another, these teams are looking more to the future than a playoff run in 2018.
New York Giants
They needed their receivers and tight ends to carry a pass-heavy offense. That didn't happen early, and now their top receiving targets are injured. A surprising win over the Broncos on Sunday doesn't change the long-term outlook.
"They are good enough to win some games, and they will win some games, but with their start, in that division, it's probably too late," a GM said.
Chicago Bears
It was obvious the Bears lacked the receiving talent to give themselves a chance even if Mitchell Trubisky impressed. They are a physical team that will try to win low-scoring games while Trubisky develops.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are now 0-5 in games decided by three or fewer points, which is not terrible for them in the long term. They'll draft early in 2018, and if the odds even out next season, they'll win a few of the close ones to mark improvement in head coach Kyle Shanahan's second year.