The Cleveland Browns raised some eyebrows when they selected Cody Kessler in the third round of the 2016 NFL draft. The USC product was considered an undersized, weak-armed project likely to receive no more than late-round consideration. Instead, the perpetually quarterback-needy Browns took the plunge on Day 2. New head coach Hue Jackson said "trust me on this one" and pointed specifically to 6-foot-1, 220-pound Kessler's terrific accuracy.
Less than one year after selecting and praising his new quarterback, Jackson seems to be backing off. "You play with the hand that's dealt you," he said when asked at the NFL combine about the Kessler pick.
What's odd about Jackson's backpedaling is that Kessler was actually pretty good as a rookie. At the very least, he met or exceeded expectations. Here's proof the Browns shouldn't be so quick to bail on Kessler as their quarterback of the future.
Kessler completed 65.6 percent of his attempts, which ranked 11th among 43 players who attempted at least 70 passes. A closer look at those throws shows that he was off-target only 10.8 percent of the time, which trailed only Drew Brees (9.7 percent) for best in the NFL. Kessler threw too many passes away (14), but did well to avoid interceptions.
In all, Kessler completed 128 of 195 attempts for 1,380 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions. His average of 7.1 yards per attempt (YPA) fell just below the 2016 league average (7.2) and he was sacked a ton (21 times). Kessler's inaugural season looks even better when compared to other rookie performances from the past decade. Of the 34 rookies who have attempted at least 150 passes during the span, Kessler ranks third in TD:INT ratio (3:1), third in completion percentage, first in off-target percentage, 13th in YPA and second in interception rate (1.0 percent).
Of 50 rookies who attempted more than 40 passes during the past decade, 10 completed at least 61 percent of their passes while also averaging at least 7.0 yards per attempt. That list includes Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson, Marcus Mariota, Teddy Bridgewater, Robert Griffin III, T.J Yates and 2016 rookies Jacoby Brissett, Dak Prescott and, of course, Kessler. There are plenty of quality NFL passers who failed to hit those marks as rookies (including Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton and Matthew Stafford).
The big knock on Kessler is that he doesn't have a big enough arm or the willingness to make throws deep downfield. Kessler's 7.6 average depth of throw was below last season's league average (8.4), but was still higher than the likes of Sam Bradford, Alex Smith, Jared Goff, Joe Flacco, Carson Wentz, Brees and Stafford. On balls thrown 20-plus yards downfield, Kessler completed 37 percent of his attempts, which equals the NFL average completion rate in the category. He was charted as off target on 32 percent of those throws. That's actually better than the 40 percent league-wide mark.
As for Kessler's willingness to chuck it deep, of his 195 attempts, 19 (or 9.7 percent) were thrown 20-plus yards down field. The league-wide average for all other passers was 11.0 percent. Not much different.
Another plus for Kessler was his ability to get the ball to his best receiver. Of his 180 aimed throws, 54 (or a hefty 30 percent) were directed at Terrelle Pryor. The two connected 35 of those passes (65 percent) for 427 yards and four touchdowns. Kessler didn't have as much luck with Corey Coleman (nine of 18 for 87 yards), but he completed at least three-quarters of his throws to Andrew Hawkins (76 percent), Gary Barnidge (79 percent), Duke Johnson (81 percent) and Isaiah Crowell (94 percent).
The tape on Kessler paints a similar picture to the stats. His accuracy, touch passing and decision-making were terrific, and, although he took too many sacks, he wasn't afraid to stand in the pocket and take a hard hit to deliver an accurate throw. Kessler certainly did not look good throwing the deepest of his passes, but as we noted earlier, that only makes up a small percentage of a quarterback's game. With few exceptions, Kessler's ball location on 50-50 balls -- usually to Pryor -- was good. Kessler doesn't add much value with his legs, but he made plenty of on-target throws while being flustered or moved from the pocket (8.6 YPA outside the pocket ranked fifth overall).
Kessler's size and underwhelming arm strength will always be limitations, but the likes of Bradford, Smith, Brees and, over the past few years, Stafford have had plenty of success working primarily in the short area.
This evaluation of Kessler is obviously based off a small sample of work, so the goal here isn't to suggest definitively that Kessler is a good NFL player. Instead, Kessler's rookie-season success should be enough of a reason for Jackson and the Browns to give him another look as the team's starter. The Browns may eventually get to a point where they want to aim higher at the position, but Kessler's presence also means they don't have to force the selection of a quarterback in the first round of the draft.