Each NFL team's offseason is filled with small moves and marginal personnel decisions. Sometimes, that series of small moves will build a winner. But a big, bold move can help dramatically -- by improving talent at an important position or changing the overall direction of the franchise.
This week, we'll be suggesting a bold move for each team. Some of these are realistic; others are more far-fetched, but each would provide a significant change and improve a team's chances of winning future Super Bowls.
As a reminder, Football Outsiders' DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) metric takes every play during the season and compares it to a baseline adjusted for situation and opponent. It is explained further here and will be referenced below.
Moves are suggested for each team independently of those suggested for other teams. Below are bold moves for each AFC team, with the NFC article published here.
AFC East | AFC North| AFC South | AFC West
AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills
Let CB Stephon Gilmore walk
As coach Sean McDermott tries to reconstruct a defense that underachieved under Rex Ryan, letting a premier cornerback leave in free agency wouldn't seem to be the optimal first step. Given how badly McDermott's Panthers struggled last year with a green secondary after rescinding Josh Norman's franchise tag, he may not want the Bills' front office to make a similar decision on Gilmore.
The only problem is that the "premier cornerback" label may not actually apply to Gilmore, at least based on his charting numbers. Sports Info Solutions charting had Gilmore allowing 9.4 yards per target in 2016, which ranked 77th out of 84 qualifying cornerbacks and highlighted his troublesome problems with the deep ball. Although Ryan's scheme demanded a lot from its corners, Gilmore did not necessarily thrive when given greater responsibility. Gilmore's 7.2 yards per target allowed in 2015 show he's capable of better, but those career-best numbers still ranked just 25th.
McDermott's scheme does not call for a $15 million-per-year cornerback, which is the figure currently projected if the Bills were to franchise Gilmore. Coincidentally, that's the same per-year average of the record-setting contract Norman signed with Washington. Even if Gilmore doesn't match that on the market, he would seem ticketed for no less than the five-year, $62.5 million deal Janoris Jenkins landed last year as the top free-agent cornerback.
Buffalo does still have Ronald Darby in place, and it could use the savings to beef up other areas of the roster, such as the pass rush and receiving corps. Norman's departure was hardly the only factor behind Carolina's defensive funk last season, and retaining Gilmore isn't the key to helping the Bills snap out of theirs. -- Aaron Schatz
Miami Dolphins
Sign WR Kenny Britt instead of Kenny Stills
Stills improved during his second season in Miami and emerged as the Dolphins' primary vertical target. Among qualifying receivers, Stills' 17.3 yards per catch ranked third, and his career-high nine touchdowns led the team. That production could result in a windfall for the impending free agent, with reports suggesting a market in the $12 million per year range.
Stills was a useful cog in Adam Gase's offense last season, but such a deal seems wildly out of line with his role and past production. A $12 million per year deal would currently rank sixth among wide receivers in annual average salary, sandwiched between T.Y. Hilton and Doug Baldwin. Stills' best season was actually in 2014, when he produced 931 yards on 63 catches for a career-high 285 DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement, explained here) in the Saints' receiver-friendly system.
From Miami's perspective, replacing one Kenny with another should provide a more cost-effective option. Britt has long struggled to live up to his first-round pedigree, but he had the best year of his career in 2016 and is still just 28. Britt posted an almost identical receiving DVOA to Stills (6.6 percent to 6.5 percent) and a superior DYAR (167 to 120) despite playing in the league's worst offense. With a 16.0 yards per catch average over the past three seasons for the Rams, Britt would seem capable of reprising Stills' role.
The market seems unlikely to explode for Britt in the same way it reportedly will for Stills. Given Britt's multiyear production in the Rams' miserable offense, it would be intriguing to see if Gase's scheme could further elevate his game. -- Aaron Schatz
New England Patriots
Let TE Martellus Bennett and CB Logan Ryan Walk
The reigning champs are quietly at a crossroads this offseason, with a glut of free agents necessitating some tough decisions from coach Bill Belichick. New England will see seven players who played at least 450 snaps last season hit free agency, and that doesn't include a potentially lucrative extension for restricted free agent Malcolm Butler. Though the Patriots are projected to have over $60 million in cap space, the market likely won't allow them to retain the entirety of their championship core.
Bennett and Ryan are the two free agents who may have most out-priced their relative value to the team. Both were valuable contributors in 2016 -- the former played hurt and allowed the offense's basic schematic identity to remain intact after Rob Gronkowski went down, while the latter established himself as a reliable starter who could play outside or in the slot. But Bennett can probably eclipse the $7 million per year offer he turned down during the season, and the team won't pay him more than Gronkowski's $9 million per year average. Meanwhile, given the positional demand, Ryan may follow the likes of Byron Maxwell and Sean Smith as No. 2 cornerbacks who received No. 1 money from other teams in free agency.
Rather than meeting these costs, the Patriots can feasibly find replacements elsewhere. Gronk will presumably be back in 2017, and an extremely deep tight end draft class should allow Belichick to find a cheaper complement. And though Cyrus Jones admitted to suffering a crisis of confidence when he struggled as a rookie punt returner, the Patriots aren't about to give up so quickly on last year's second-round pick. Jones should receive an opportunity to earn the nickelback role, where he profiles as a replacement for Ryan.
New England's on-field consistency belies its high year-to-year personnel turnover. The Patriots are typically due for a surprise or two every offseason, and Belichick certainly won't be afraid to let a valuable contributor or fan favorite walk if the value lies elsewhere. -- Aaron Schatz
New York Jets
Sign S Tony Jefferson
After an ill-fated decision to stick with a veteran-heavy core last season, the Jets are as starved for young talent as any team in the league. Gang Green entered the offseason with less cap space than any other franchise, and Leonard Williams is the only player who represents a definitive part of their long-term plans.
No matter how they do it, the Jets need to start acquiring young talent as soon as possible. Free agency isn't usually the avenue for that, but Arizona Cardinals safety Tony Jefferson might be a player worth spending on. The former undrafted free agent carved out an increasingly large role as a "Honey Badger Lite" in the desert, playing deep safety, box safety and even a little slot corner. He's coming off a successful debut as a full-time starter in 2016 and is the premier safety on the market after Kansas City struck an agreement Tuesday with Eric Berry.
The Jets, of course, need help throughout the secondary. New York ranked 28th in DVOA on deep passes. On passes to the middle of the field, where safeties would typically patrol, the Jets were dead last in DVOA. Marcus Gilchrist is a question mark for the start of 2017 after tearing his patella tendon in December, and Calvin Pryor's development has stagnated after three seasons. Moving on from Darrelle Revis is only the first step toward rebuilding the secondary.
Jefferson just turned 25 in December and has familiarity with coach Todd Bowles' system from their days in Arizona. Spending big in free agency won't be the primary avenue general manager Mike Maccagnan takes to rebuild the roster. However, Jefferson shouldn't be too cost-prohibitive, and his youth and experience in Bowles' defense makes him a potential cornerstone for New York. -- Aaron Schatz
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens
Release DB Lardarius Webb
Webb has been a longtime fixture for the Ravens since being selected in the 2009 draft, and he was a consummate pro who agreed to a position change and helped Eric Weddle fix the safety position in 2016. But Webb has not been the same player since suffering an ACL tear in 2012.
The Ravens are eternally cap-strapped, Webb is now 31 years old, and the team is going to need extra money for other things this offseason: possible re-signings of DT Brandon Williams and G Rick Wagner, replacing the retired Steve Smith and Zach Orr, and finding some new edge rushers alongside the aging Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil.
Webb is due to be a $7.5 million cap hit in 2017. The Ravens can save $5.5 million by releasing him. It's the right call at this point. -- Rivers McCown
Cincinnati Bengals
Re-sign OT Andrew Whitworth
As the Bengals' longtime starting left tackle, Whitworth probably feels quite disrespected at this point. Cincinnati brought in a couple of tackles two years ago with high draft picks: Texas A&M's Cedric Ogbuehi and Oregon's Jake Fisher. The Bengals have, at times, played Whitworth at guard in their attempts to develop both of these players or improve the offensive line as a whole. What they have learned in the first two years is that neither of these players is Whitworth. In fact, Ogbuehi played so poorly last year that it's hard to recommend him for a starting job anywhere. According to SIS charting, his 20 blown blocks ranked him among the 20 worst offensive linemen last year.
Now, the easy thing to do would be to stick with the plan, say the Bengals drafted these guys to replace Whitworth, and let him walk. But the plan is effectively broken at this point, with neither Ogbuehi nor Fisher showing enough to gain the team's confidence in the short term. Cincinnati has more than enough cap space to keep Whitworth from walking to a win-now team on a short-term deal. He may be 35, but he's still playing at such a high level that the Bengals should keep rolling him out there. -- Rivers McCown
Cleveland Browns
Trade for Tyrod Taylor
Ah, wow, a bold move that involves the Browns trading for a quarterback. I'm sure this idea has never been breached anywhere on the internet before.
If you consider Texas A&M defensive end Myles Garrett the easy No. 1 overall pick in this draft -- and we do -- the question then becomes: How can the Browns address quarterback without the No. 1 pick? The easy answer is "draft a guy," but if the rumors about Taylor's availability in Buffalo are true, the Browns should absolutely inquire on the price.
Taylor's minus-2.7 percent passing DVOA last year is belied by the fact that his best receivers were one-legged Sammy Watkins and the ineffective Charles Clay. Taylor is not a conventional franchise quarterback, but he doesn't actually have to be to be an improvement on what Cleveland has right now. Head coach Hue Jackson can design an offense to fit Taylor's scrambling, big-armed ways. (Taylor's rushing value was a big reason he ranked ninth in QBR as opposed to 19th in passing DVOA.)
If the Browns can pick up Taylor for a Day 2 pick, then pair him with the fabled Quarterback of the Future using their second first-round pick, they have a combination that can bring competence now without rushing a rookie into the frying pan. Perhaps they can even rehabilitate Taylor's value and then deal him for more down the line. -- Rivers McCown
Pittsburgh Steelers
Sign RB Le'Veon Bell to a long-term contract
Wow, re-signing one of the best young players in the league. That's very bold, Football Outsiders. But hear us out:
It was the easy move to place the franchise tag on Bell. One-year contracts for running backs are, in general, a smarter idea than long-term ones. We know that running backs tend to decline dramatically by their late 20s, and the passing game is a better long-term investment, which explains Antonio Brown's big-money deal.
But we would argue that, with the salary cap expected to only keep going higher, it makes a lot of sense to lock into Bell now. The Steelers are well under the cap for the first time in what seems like a while, so they've got the space to play with. They also should know that, as time goes on, most contracts handed out from 2013 that involve still-good players look pretty good today. In three years, when the debate becomes "is this the year that Bell finally loses a step?" the Steelers will be happy to have him on the tail end of a long-term deal, without much guaranteed money around to blow up their cap. Franchising Bell and kicking that can down the road could force a Peterson-esque situation, where the Steelers would feel obliged to give a long-term deal to a back quickly nearing his 30s. Doing it now will save a lot of stress. -- Rivers McCown
AFC SOUTH
Houston Texans
Draft a quarterback in the first three rounds
One year in, signing Brock Osweiler looks like a terrible mistake for the Texans. They managed to win the division title with him, but that was due to DVOA's seventh-ranked defense and a lousy division rather than the passing offense our numbers ranked 30th. With his $16 million base salary fully guaranteed this season, Osweiler will be on the Texans' roster for 2017. But the Texans need another option if they want to be a Super Bowl contender and not just the AFC South's first-round fodder.
Given all the other teams that need quarterbacks and the cap issues created by Osweiler's guarantee, that option needs to come from the draft -- and fairly early, for two reasons. First, quarterbacks taken on the third day should be viewed as lottery tickets, unlikely to develop into average starters. Second, even late first-round picks come with fairly modest salaries, meaning if they strike out again, it at least won't be cap crippling like the Osweiler deal. -- Tom Gower
Indianapolis Colts
Dedicate the entire draft to defense
Since drafting Andrew Luck in 2012, the Colts have concentrated on building the best offense they could while neglecting the defense. Two-thirds of their picks in the first three rounds have been used on offensive players. The defense got by with veterans and stopgaps for four seasons, but collapsed in 2016, ranking 29th in DVOA.
The Colts' biggest problem is a lack of game-changing defensive players. Vontae Davis is a good cornerback, but he is by far the best Colts defensive player and he doesn't really affect the opposing game plan. Robert Mathis was the last real Colts impact defender, but he had declined in recent years and is now retired. The free-agent market doesn't present a game-changing edge rusher; the best place for the Colts to find that is in the draft.
Just look at how the Colts built their last Super Bowl contender: Once Bill Polian had Peyton Manning and the core of the offense in place, he focused his draft resources on defensive players to complement them. GM Chris Ballard should do the same, at all levels of the defense. More importantly, he needs to do a better job of determining which players to pick than the departed Ryan Grigson did. And if the Colts want a new punter or offensive depth, they can find those things among the undrafted free agents. -- Tom Gower
Jacksonville Jaguars
Draft a pass-rusher with the fourth pick
The boldest move for the Jaguars would be finding serious competition for Blake Bortles, who underwhelmed in his third season after progressing in his second (the Jaguars were 22nd in passing DVOA last year after ranking 20th the year before and last in Bortles' rookie season). But they seem committed to giving him another shot, so we must look elsewhere.
Two years ago, Jacksonville spent the third overall pick on edge rusher Dante Fowler Jr. He has disappointed, suffering an injury as a rookie and producing 4.0 sacks in his second season. Rookie Yannick Ngakoue flashed with 8.0 sacks, but overall the Jaguars were 17th in adjusted sack rate and could still use a game-changer. Either Alabama's Jonathan Allen or Stanford's Solomon Thomas could be that player and transform a Jaguars defense that went from bad to average in 2016 but still has room to improve. -- Tom Gower
Tennessee Titans
Pay the price for defensive backs
The Titans were the anti-Texans in 2016, a top-10 passing offense paired with a bottom-10 passing defense. Cornerback is the obvious starting point, with Perrish Cox cut midseason and Jason McCourty due $7 million in the final year of his deal. The Titans could use two starting-quality corners. We're talking here about making a premium investment, such as signing A.J. Bouye or drafting Marshon Lattimore, along with adding a second starting cornerback, perhaps signing Logan Ryan or drafting a cornerback such as Cameron Sutton or Quincy Wilson in the third round.
The Titans could also use a better answer at safety after rotating four players last year, plus an upgrade at nickel linebacker after ranking 30th covering running backs last year. The pass rush that covered for the secondary in 2015 may also need help to stay strong in the future, especially given how last year's second-round pick, Kevin Dodd, disappointed. Adding five immediate contributors will require significant resources, but the defense needs it. -- Tom Gower
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos
Acquire Tony Romo
On the surface, Trevor Siemian produced better statistics in 2016 than the duo of Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler did for Denver's 2015 championship team. But the unit actually dropped from 25th in offensive DVOA in 2015 to 28th this past season. At one point, the Broncos were 8-4, but the offense scored just 23 points during a three-game losing streak in December that doomed the season.
With a defense that is still championship-caliber, the Broncos could use a veteran quarterback with big-play ability to get back to the playoffs in a top-heavy AFC. Romo is that quarterback. John Elway has done a fantastic job of drawing in big-name talent to Denver the past few years, so an expensive hardball move to acquire Romo, who could be cut in Dallas, is in his wheelhouse. Romo would be armed with a fantastic defense, and he could get a lot out of the receiving duo of Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. New Denver head coach Vance Joseph is obviously not indebted to Siemian or Paxton Lynch, who looked lost as a rookie in 2016.
Given Romo's own injury history, this could be an even bolder move than when Elway signed Manning after four neck surgeries in 2012. Romo, who turns 37 in April, has been limited to five games over the past two seasons. Despite playing behind what is considered the league's best offensive line, Romo has a long history of collarbone injuries and has not completed a 16-game season since 2012. Romo would be among the rare breed of top-shelf quarterbacks to hit the open market in NFL history, but he is not a sure thing to get back to his once consistently high level of play. Still, given what the Broncos have seen from Siemian and Lynch, Romo is worth the risk. -- Scott Kacsmar
Kansas City Chiefs
Let Dontari Poe walk
Kansas City is another interesting theoretical landing spot for Romo, especially since Alex Smith is essentially a more expensive version of Trevor Siemian, but let's add some variety. The Chiefs could be undergoing some change on defense with Poe being a pending free agent and questions about the health of aging linebacker Derrick Johnson.
A first-round pick in 2012, Poe once looked like a lock to earn a second contract with the Chiefs, but he last made the Pro Bowl in the 2014 season. This past season, Kansas City's defense ranked 26th in run defense DVOA and 30th in adjusted line yards. The pass defense was still strong despite a lack of pressure up front, but Poe has not been the same force he was in his earlier seasons for the Chiefs. Poe has just 2.5 sacks in the past two seasons after he had 6.0 in 2014 alone. Sure, the 1-yard touchdown pass Poe threw against Denver this past season was great fun, but that's not going to be a staple of the offense, nor a reason to bring him back.
Dominant defensive tackles such as Aaron Donald and Geno Atkins are rare players, and Poe is not on that level. Having Poe around won't change the fact that what the Chiefs really need to go far in the playoffs is a fully healthy postseason from Justin Houston. -- Scott Kacsmar
Los Angeles Chargers
Sign Calais Campbell
Over the past two seasons, the Chargers have won nine games and blown 11 fourth-quarter leads. Some of the Chargers' problems could take care of themselves now that the team has a new head coach in Anthony Lynn, and they had horrible injury luck in 2016. The offense is still led by quarterback Philip Rivers, and he has a lot of young talent around him at running back and tight end with Melvin Gordon and Hunter Henry. Wide receiver could be an area of interest, but the Chargers are not really in position to add an expensive player such as Alshon Jeffery as the final piece.
The Chargers quietly finished No. 8 in defensive DVOA this past season, and they will hopefully get full seasons in 2017 out of their best young players -- Defensive Rookie of the Year Joey Bosa and cornerback Jason Verrett. Melvin Ingram and his eight sacks will return thanks to the franchise tag. However, moving to defensive coordinator Gus Bradley's 4-3 scheme, the Chargers will need some run-stopping help between their two bookend pass-rushers.
Signing Arizona lineman Calais Campbell to play alongside Corey Liuget would give the Chargers one of the NFL's best defensive lines. Campbell would pay off in a division where the other three teams like to run the ball. He also brings interior pass pressure, with eight sacks and five tipped passes last season. -- Scott Kacsmar
Oakland Raiders
Trade up to draft Alabama TE O.J. Howard
If there is anything we know for certain at this time of year, it is that we really don't know where most players will fall in the NFL draft in late April. Howard could be a top-10 pick, or he could be within arm's reach of the Raiders when Oakland picks 24th overall in the first round.
Regardless of where he gets picked, Howard would be an incredible addition to a young Oakland offense that is quickly becoming one of the league's best. Derek Carr already has Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, a strong offensive line, and a stable of running backs with a variety of skill sets. But it has been a long time since the Raiders had a consistent threat at tight end. Clive Walford was expected to do big things in 2016, but he barely improved on his rookie season with five more catches for 30 more yards despite a career year from Carr.
Howard could add a Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham type of impact to this offense, and Carr is no stranger to aggressively throwing passes up for grabs to give tall receivers chances to make plays for him. While the Raiders still need help on defense, adding a player who can help outscore the Patriots or Steelers in January will be important if Oakland wants to be a serious Super Bowl contender. -- Scott Kacsmar