An NFL team executive recently predicted an uptick in trades this offseason for a couple of reasons. His perception was that general managers were getting younger and more adventurous. He also thought another weak crop of projected free agents could make the trade market more appealing by comparison. It might wind up being wishful thinking, but here are eight proposed trades to get the conversation rolling as NFL teams head to Indianapolis for the scouting combine.
The Chicago Bears acquire QB Jimmy Garoppolo from the New England Patriots for 2017 and 2018 second-round choices.
Chicago lands its next quarterback without giving up the third overall pick in the draft, while the Patriots acquire the second-round picks they seem to covet (New England has used a league-high 16 picks in second rounds over the past 10 drafts). New England could press for more in return.
There are compelling points on both sides of the debate over whether New England will trade Garoppolo this offseason. An executive with experience in the quarterback trade market said he thought the Patriots would keep Garoppolo for another season and then name him their franchise player in 2018 as a prelude to a trade, the same approach New England took with Matt Cassel. The trade market could be stronger next offseason if current Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels becomes a head coach and wants Garoppolo as his quarterback.
"They need a backup for Brady more than they need another high pick right now," this executive theorized. "If someone goes to them with an offer they can't refuse, then that changes. But I don't see anybody doing that when it would also mean giving Garoppolo at least $20 million a year on a new deal, which takes away your free-agency money as well."
Those are valid points, but from the Patriots' perspective, how good is Garoppolo, anyway? To what degree is he the product of a phenomenal system? New England did go 10-5 when Cassel started for them in 2008, after all. They could ship out Garoppolo, hire Chip Kelly as senior offensive assistant/quarterbacks and then make a play for Matt Barkley in free agency, to name one of several plausible scenarios.
The Miami Dolphins acquire CB Malcolm Butler and a 2018 seventh-round choice from the Patriots for 2017 first- and fifth-round picks.
The Patriots will presumably place a first-round tender on Butler as he becomes a restricted free agent, setting the price any team would have to pay if New England decided against matching an outside offer. Under this scenario, they would flip a 2014 undrafted free agent (Butler) for a 2017 first-rounder and more. The Dolphins, who need cornerback help despite having traded for Byron Maxwell last offseason, would fill that need in one quick move.
This wouldn't be the first high-profile trade between the AFC East rivals. In 2007, New England sent second- and seventh-round picks to Miami for Wes Welker, who had gone undrafted in 2004.
"I think New England will put a first-round tender on Butler and you could see someone try to bid him up, but I think New England will keep him in the end," one league insider said.
The New York Jets or San Francisco 49ers acquire QB Jay Cutler from the Bears for a 2017 sixth-round pick.
Why would any team trade for Cutler when the Bears probably will release him in the absence of a deal? Because a late-round pick is a low price for preventing Cutler from signing with a different quarterback-needy team.
The 49ers are flush with salary-cap space, so taking on Cutler's $16 million cap charge would be no problem for them, especially with Colin Kaepernick's $14.5 million base salary coming off the books under this scenario. San Francisco also owns an extra pick in each of the draft's final two rounds, so giving up a sixth-rounder is about as easy as it could be. New 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan was not with Denver back in 2006 when his father coached the Broncos and drafted Cutler, but the connection doesn't hurt. The 49ers could draft a quarterback and try to develop him while Shanahan sees what he can get from Cutler.
The Jets, meanwhile, do not own an extra sixth-round pick this year, but they do own two picks in the third round, so they would still have seven selections if they made this deal. Cutler's salary would only slightly exceed the $12 million average for former starter Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Jets could still draft a quarterback while keeping 2016 second-round choice Christian Hackenberg. New quarterbacks coach Jeremy Bates coached the position for the Broncos when Cutler was in Denver, a connection that wouldn't hurt in this case.
"Someone is going to be enamored with Cutler's talent," a team executive said. "No one wanted him, and then last year [2015], people thought he was back. You will ride the roller coaster with him, but I think someone would trade for him. You are just taking on the salary for a sixth. The Jets paid $12 million for Fitz, so they can pay $16 million for Cutler. If you are Kyle Shanahan, you will take Cutler and maybe you get a couple years. It buys some time."
The 49ers acquire QB AJ McCarron from the Cincinnati Bengals for DL Arik Armstead and a 2017 sixth-round pick.
It's quite possible a young talent such as McCarron could excite the 49ers more than a 33-year-old veteran such as Cutler. If that's the case, why not make a play for Andy Dalton's backup?
Under this scenario, the 49ers could use the second overall choice in the 2017 draft for Alabama defensive lineman Jonathan Allen, who would team with DeForest Buckner to form a talented young tandem up front. In Armstead, the Bengals would be getting a tall, versatile defensive end fitting their prototype. Amstead, chosen 17th overall in 2015, is signed through 2018, a year longer than McCarron's rookie contract is scheduled to run.
The Washington Redskins or Oakland Raiders acquire DT Sharrif Floyd from the Minnesota Vikings for a 2017 third-rounder.
Vikings coach Mike Zimmer publicly expressed frustration with Floyd's injury situation last season, sounding the way coaches sound when they're ready to move on from a player. Even if Zimmer has not reached that point, it's fair to wonder whether the Vikings will extend Floyd's contract beyond its 2017 fifth-year option.
The Redskins and Raiders both need immediate help for their defenses as they try to help out their high-powered offenses. Both made aggressive moves in free agency last offseason. An NFL team's analytics director thought Seattle also could make sense for Floyd, who was chosen 23rd overall in 2013. The Seahawks do own three third-round picks, giving them ample ammo, but they also have other needs and lots of money already invested in their defensive core.
The Indianapolis Colts acquire S Ron Parker from the Kansas City Chiefs for a conditional 2018 draft choice.
New Colts general manager Chris Ballard reaches into his past with the Chiefs to find a center fielder to replace Mike Adams, who is eligible for free agency. Kansas City would save under the cap while remaining focused on re-signing Eric Berry.
The Seattle Seahawks or Colts acquire DE Jaye Howard from the Chiefs for a 2018 fourth-round choice.
Howard is signed through the 2017 season on a deal featuring $3.7 million in base salary. The Chiefs have other priorities to re-sign on defense, from Dee Ford to Dontari Poe to Berry. Parting with Howard still could be tough for the Chiefs as they try to keep together a playoff-caliber defense.
Seattle has consistently found effective veteran defensive linemen on short-term deals in free agency. This move would use the trade route to the same end. The Colts also would make sense given their need for defensive help and their ties to the Chiefs through their new general manager.
The Los Angeles Chargers acquire OT Cyrus Kouandjio and a 2017 seventh-rounder from the Buffalo Bills for a 2017 fourth-rounder.
Kouandjio played pretty well for the Bills at left tackle last season when Cordy Glenn was unavailable. This trade would reunite him with former Bills offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn, the Chargers' new head coach. Quite a few other teams also could use help at offensive tackle. The list includes Carolina, Denver and Seattle, who hold additional third-round selections.
Kouandjio, 23, has made only seven starts in his first three NFL seasons. He's no star, obviously, but finding viable players at the position isn't getting easier. Kouandjio is entering the final year of the four-year deal he signed as a second-round choice in 2014.