The NFL's quarterback carousel is just starting to get going, but it's never too early to peer into our crystal ball. From the slam dunks (yes, Brady is staying put) to head-scratchers (we're looking at you, San Francisco), here are our pre-free-agency predictions for every team's 2017 starting QB.
AFC East | AFC North| AFC South | AFC West
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West
AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills
Projected 2017 starter: Deshaun Watson
The feeling here is that Clemson's Watson is the first quarterback taken in the draft, to the Bills at No. 10 overall. It also could be North Carolina's Mitch Trubisky, but we're giving the edge to Watson. The Bills are reluctant to pay Tyrod Taylor $18 million per year, so he's likely to play elsewhere in 2017. Some in the organization believe Cardale Jones could start, but Watson has a better body of work.
Miami Dolphins
Projected 2017 starter: Ryan Tannehill
Adam Gase lived up to his billing as a quarterback repair man. Tannehill completed a career-high 67.1 percent of his passes, and the Dolphins went to the playoffs with a 10-6 record. But don't go overboard thinking they completely turned the corner. They won only one game against a team with a .500 record or better, a Steelers team that blew them out in the playoffs. Miami went 8-2 in close games and might expect a small drop-off with its tougher schedule.
New England Patriots
Projected 2017 starter: Tom Brady
Despite missing four games because of his Deflategate suspension, Brady had his most satisfying season. He accepted the Super Bowl MVP trophy from the commissioner who suspended him. He had the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history. Now, the greatest quarterback in NFL history is planning on another three to five more seasons.
New York Jets
Projected 2017 starter:
Glennon gets the Jets job by process of elimination. It doesn't make much sense for Tony Romo to join an aging roster that needs a lot to get back to the playoffs. Bill Belichick likely won't trade Jimmy Garoppolo within the division. That leaves New York with Glennon or Tyrod Taylor, and the former third-round pick Glennon, who's 5-13 in his career as a starter for the Bucs, makes sense. The Jets still hope they can get something from Bryce Petty and Christian Hackenberg.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens
Projected 2017 starter: Joe Flacco
Flacco's game has regressed -- to a degree. His yards per attempt have dropped from 7.2 to 6.8 to 6.4 over the past three seasons. After a 27-touchdown passing season in 2014, Flacco has had only 34 in the past two years (he missed six games in 2015). The Ravens' offense struggles to get to 21 points per game. The pressure is on Flacco and the offensive coaching staff to improve in a hurry.
Cincinnati Bengals
Projected 2017 starter: Andy Dalton
The organization underestimated the losses of wide receivers Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu to free agency last year, and tight end Tyler Eifert played in only eight games due to injuries. As a result, Dalton struggled. His completion percentage dropped slightly (66.1 percent to 64.7), and he lost almost a yard off his yards-per-attempt average (8.4 to 7.5). The Bengals' offense went from 26.2 points per game in 2015 to 20.3 last season.
Cleveland Browns
Projected 2017 starter: Jimmy Garoppolo
The Browns are the team with the most ammo to make a deal with the New England Patriots to get Garoppolo, as noted here. Belichick showed he could deal with the Browns, getting a third-round compensatory pick for linebacker Jamie Collins, who signed a big extension last month. The Browns might have to use the No. 12 overall pick if bidding gets too hot, but they can't let Garoppolo slip away if they think he's their long-term quarterback answer.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Projected 2017 starter: Ben Roethlisberger
Roethlisberger and the Steelers are, at the moment, the only AFC team that has a chance to beat Brady in Foxborough. It didn't work out last season as Pittsburgh lost the AFC title game. The Steelers have a chance to get to the 30-points-per-game level after averaging 25.6 in 2016. And with some younger defenders improving, the Steelers still have a chance to get to the Super Bowl.
AFC SOUTH
Houston Texans
Projected 2017 starter: Tom Savage
The Texans should explore the Romo option, but it would be tough to fit him under their cap. The team has $19 million of cap room tied up in the disappointing Brock Osweiler, whose contract is guaranteed. Putting Romo with the league's No. 1 defense would be intriguing, but the Texans would then have more than $30 million tied up in quarterback contracts, which isn't likely to happen. Enter Savage, who was OK in two starts at the end of last season.
Indianapolis Colts
Projected 2017 starter: Andrew Luck
General manager Ryan Grigson lost his job because he didn't surround Luck with enough talent. The line was bad. The defense was worse. Luck bounced back from injuries last season and took the offense from 20.8 points per game to 25.7. He did his part, throwing for 4,240 yards with 31 touchdown passes. If new general manager Chris Ballard has a good offseason, the Colts can get out of their 8-8 rut.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Projected 2017 starter: Blake Bortles
The Jaguars are expected to give Bortles one last chance. He didn't come close last season to the 35-touchdown season he had in 2015, giving away too many possessions with pick-sixes and fumbles. His numbers -- 23 touchdown passes, 16 interceptions and a Total QBR of 48.9 -- were plain awful. Jacksonville could move on from him in 2018.
Tennessee Titans
Projected 2017 starter: Marcus Mariota
All signs point to the Titans getting over the top and taking control in the AFC South. They have two first-round choices this year and have the fourth-most cap room to use in free agency. Mariota is one of the best young quarterbacks in the league, and Tennessee has a bright future.
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos
Projected 2017 starter: Tony Romo
If Romo gets cut, Denver is the best fit ... at the right price. General manager John Elway could tempt Romo with an offer that puts the QB on a contender. Elway believes in Trevor Siemian and hopes Paxton Lynch can keep developing. Romo is a luxury, but he would be Denver's best bet in getting back to the 11- or 12-win level and into the playoffs.
Kansas City Chiefs
Projected 2017 starter: Alex Smith
Smith's 41-20 regular-season record as a Chief keeps him in the good graces of Andy Reid, but Smith's 1-3 postseason record is a problem. Smith is a great game manager. Unfortunately, he's not the 4,000-yard thrower who could prevent Brady, Roethlisberger and others from beating the Chiefs in the playoffs. Smith averages 222.4 yards a game through the air, so more is needed from other parts of the offense to win in the playoffs.
Los Angeles Chargers
Projected 2017 starter: Philip Rivers
Rivers and the Chargers are overdue for a bounce-back year. Over the past two seasons, they are 7-18 in games decided by eight points or fewer. Normally, a team that loses that many close games bounces back, but the Chargers have responded with only nine wins in two seasons. The move to Los Angeles could bring him a little bit of luck.
Oakland Raiders
Projected 2017 starter: Derek Carr
Thanks to Carr, the Raiders had a 12-win season in 2016, but it was doomed when he was lost for the playoffs with a broken leg. While getting back to 12 wins might be tough, Carr and the Raiders could be a perennial playoff team. He had seven fourth-quarter comeback victories last season, and his offense is loaded with talent.
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys
Projected 2017 starter: Dak Prescott
If all goes according to plan, Prescott will join Troy Aikman and Tony Romo as decadelong starters for the Cowboys during Jerry Jones' ownership tenure. That will be remarkable given that Romo was not drafted and Prescott was only a fourth-round selection.
New York Giants
Projected 2017 starter: Eli Manning
Though 36, Manning should remain viable for the Giants if they can give him a running game to balance out the offense. He has never missed a game and has thrown 91 touchdowns with 44 interceptions over the past three seasons following a career-worst year in 2013.
Philadelphia Eagles
Projected 2017 starter: Carson Wentz
Wentz is one season into a four-year rookie contract featuring a fifth-year team option that can keep him under contract through 2020. He attempted 607 passes, the second-highest total in NFL history for a rookie behind Andrew Luck's 627 in 2012.
Washington Redskins
Projected 2017 starter: Kirk Cousins
The negotiating relationship between Cousins and the team appears strained, calling into question whether a long-term deal will get done. The team could use the franchise tag once again. Cousins ranks behind only Prescott, Brady and Matt Ryan in Total QBR (71.3) over the past two seasons. He ranks 12th in touchdown passes and tied for ninth in victories as a starter (17-14-1 record).
NFC NORTH
Chicago Bears
Projected 2017 starter: Tyrod Taylor
The Bears appear ready to move on from Jay Cutler. They need offensive weapons. They need to continue building through the draft. Signing the multidimensional Taylor would help accomplish all three goals. It could become possible if the Bills decide against exercising their option on Taylor's contract.
Detroit Lions
Projected 2017 starter: Matthew Stafford
Stafford is entering the final season of his contract and will be in line for an extension. His statistical efficiency has improved over the past season and a half, but the Lions are still looking for their first playoff victory since drafting him in 2009. An improved running game would help.
Green Bay Packers
Projected 2017 starter: Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers appears as athletic as ever at age 33. He has now gone three-plus seasons since missing a game to injury. Rodgers will be a few months past his 36th birthday when his contract expires following the 2019 season.
Minnesota Vikings
Projected 2017 starter: Sam Bradford
Bradford is entering a contract season for a Vikings team that needs to figure out its future at the position over the next year. Will Teddy Bridgewater return? Should Bradford get a contract extension? Bradford is probably the best option right now.
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons
Projected 2017 starter: Matt Ryan
Ryan led the NFL in Total QBR (83.3) last season. Since entering the NFL in 2008, Ryan ranks fifth in QBR behind Peyton Manning, Brady, Drew Brees and Rodgers among the 75 players with at least 500 pass attempts over that span. His contract runs through 2018, which means an extension will be in the works.
Carolina Panthers
Projected 2017 starter: Cam Newton
Newton is entering the third season of a contract extension that runs through the 2020 season, when he will be 30. He has missed only three games in his career despite taking more hits than any quarterback in the league. How long can he hold up?
New Orleans Saints
Projected 2017 starter: Drew Brees
Brees ranked among the NFL's top six in completion percentage, passing yards, passing touchdowns, passer rating and Total QBR this past season. His current contract voids following the 2017 season, but it's looking like Brees, 38, can continue for years to come.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected 2017 starter: Jameis Winston
Winston's 50 touchdown passes through two seasons rank third behind Carr (53) and Russell Wilson (52) among quarterbacks drafted over the past 10 years. He becomes eligible for a contract extension following the 2017 season, although the Buccaneers control his rights through the 2021 season via a fifth-year option and the franchise tag.
NFC WEST
Arizona Cardinals
Projected 2017 starter: Carson Palmer
Palmer set a career single-season high for pass attempts (597) last season despite missing one game to injury. His 26 touchdown passes tied his fourth-highest total. His 4,233-yard passing total was the third highest of his career. His plays dipped from 2015, but he's still a productive starter. Palmer's contract runs through 2018, when he will be 38.
Los Angeles Rams
Projected 2017 starter: Jared Goff
Goff went 0-7 as a rookie starter for a Rams offense that has floundered for years, precipitating Sean McVay's hiring as the team's first offense-minded head coach since Scott Linehan in 2008. Goff's contract runs through 2019, with a team option for 2020.
San Francisco 49ers
Projected 2017 starter: Jay Cutler
Cutler played with 49ers GM John Lynch in Denver and was drafted by the Broncos by Mike Shanahan, father of the 49ers' new head coach. Dots such as these do not always connect, and the 49ers will have other options, but Cutler could give them a short-term veteran option.
Seattle Seahawks
Projected 2017 starter: Russell Wilson
Wilson ranks sixth in Total QBR (71.1) among 51 quarterbacks with at least 500 attempts since his 2012 rookie season. His contract runs through 2019, when he will be 30.