It's not often that a player once regarded as a franchise quarterback hits the free-agent market. Yet, according to ESPN's Todd Archer, that is the most likely scenario for Tony Romo. Even if the Dallas Cowboys are able to find a trade partner instead of cutting Romo, the cost likely won't be too high.
Although the fortunes of their longtime teams in their final seasons could not be more different, Romo's free-agency foray would be pretty similar to Peyton Manning's after the 2011 season. Manning missed the entire season for Indianapolis with a nerve issue in his neck, and there were whispers about how he would come back. There's nothing NFL general managers are happier about than certainty, and given Romo's recent injury history, he can't be counted on to stay healthy.
However, that is the reason he's available in the first place. Players as good as Romo don't become available without mitigating factors. Brett Favre and Drew Brees moved on because their franchises had Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers waiting in the wings. Manning moved on because the Colts had the No. 1 overall pick in a draft class that included Andrew Luck.
Romo, who will turn 37 in April, isn't Manning -- but he's still a very good quarterback in a league with a short supply of them. Statistically, Romo's last healthy season in Dallas compares favorably to Manning's in Indianapolis -- though in context Manning's season was better because he engineered the offense on his own.
Here are the teams that should be in the market for Romo's services this offseason:
Denver Broncos
Incumbent quarterbacks: Trevor Siemian, Paxton Lynch
The Broncos' passing offense was actually better in 2016 than it was during their Super Bowl year of 2015, but between Siemian's penchant for turnovers and poor play from the rookie Lynch in short spurts, it wasn't a big improvement. The running game and offensive line still need to be sorted, but John Elway didn't balk at adding a talent like Manning to this offense and disrupting the natural order of things in 2012. I'm not sure why he shouldn't do it in 2017, either.
This defense is built to win right away -- it finished first in Football Outsiders' DVOA for the second consecutive season -- and if Romo bounces back to even be half of what Manning was in his Denver prime, that means an instant Super Bowl contender.
Houston Texans
Incumbent quarterbacks: Brock Osweiler, Tom Savage
There's talk about how Osweiler's contract limits the Texans, but let's think about recent examples of quarterback busts. Nick Foles, acquired by the Rams in a trade, accepted a pay cut to be released. Matt Flynn, who signed as a free agent, likely would have faced the same scenario had the Seahawks not been so far under the cap. Colin Kaepernick, who signed an extension in 2014, had to renegotiate his contract before the 49ers would let him play this year. If the Texans come to Osweiler with a pay-cut-or-benching ultimatum, the team has a lot of leverage.
The Texans have had a garbage offense every year under Bill O'Brien, no matter what they do, because they can't get a good quarterback. A healthy Romo would immediately change that and make them a real AFC contender instead of a squad that ducks and covers the second it runs into a real playoff team.
Los Angeles Rams
Incumbent quarterbacks: Jared Goff, Case Keenum
The Rams have a lot of the attributes of a successful bounce-back season in place. They have Wade Phillips coaching a powerful front seven, and they've finally pushed Jeff Fisher out the door, giving the offense a chance to grow.
On its face it seems blasphemous to bench a quarterback drafted No. 1 overall, but Goff was horrible last season. He finished dead last in our DYAR statistic among qualified quarterbacks despite throwing 300 fewer passes than the runner-up, Osweiler. Romo could be a bridge quarterback to allow Goff to get another year of education and training, while simultaneously rebuilding his own value for a quick free-agent strike in 2018. It's a bit awkward, but this team could absolutely make a play for an NFC wild-card spot with better quarterback play in 2017.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Incumbent quarterbacks: Blake Bortles, Chad Henne
Speaking of teams hamstrung by bad quarterback play in 2016: We all witnessed this offense (27th in DVOA) drag a much-improved Jaguars defense down as Jacksonville finished 3-13. I understand that the Jaguars invested a high draft pick in Bortles, and that most of the people who did this are still in the building. But I'd find it difficult to have any confidence in Bortles with this sort of run-oriented/defense-heavy game plan. This is a team that is screaming out for a quarterback who can play smart.
And Romo, throwing to a core of Allen Robinson, Marqise Lee and Allen Hurns, could be a devastating development for an AFC South that nobody has been able to really seize for the last two seasons. Perhaps Marcus Mariota and the Titans will make a surge for the division this year, but if you're the Jaguars, what do you have to lose by putting your chips on the table? They don't even have enough faith in Bortles to exercise his fifth-year option. With Romo, they're a division contender.