The Super Bowl is the most overanalyzed sporting event each year, but don't think for a second that you have learned everything you need to know about the Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots. We dug into the databases at ESPN Stats & Information and Football Outsiders to find a few obscure statistical areas to highlight that could help predict the outcome of Sunday's showdown.
Which quarterback to blitz?
Blitzing should come with a warning to be used in moderation against quarterbacks of this caliber. It might be well known that a defense should not blitz Tom Brady, but what do the numbers say? This season, including the playoffs, Brady leads all quarterbacks with a 92.1 QBR against the blitz. Matt Ryan has been excellent too with a 90.8 QBR, which ranked third, and he led all passers with 16 touchdowns against the blitz.
The difference in QBR can be accounted for by the effectiveness of the blitz at generating pressure. Brady was sacked only twice against a blitz compared to 15 times for Ryan. In fact, Ryan was pressured on 45.0 percent of his dropbacks against the blitz, which ranked 28th out of 30 quarterbacks in 2016. Compare that to the 28.9 percent for Brady, which was seventh. Ryan has been good at operating under pressure this season, but all it takes is a well-timed pressure or two to throw a quarterback off his game for a tide-turning turnover. The Patriots are more likely to do this to Ryan with the blitz than the Falcons will be with blitzing Brady.
It's also important to point out that Dan Quinn seems to understand his defense's deficiencies well this year.
This strategy would still not be advised against Brady, who was never blitzed more often than in his season debut: 34.9 percent at Cleveland. Look for Quinn to try to replicate his former team's game plan in what was Brady's only loss this season. The Seahawks blitzed Brady 17.1 percent of the time, but still finished the game with a 31.4 percent pressure rate. Atlanta was 7-1 this season when generating at least a 30.0 percent pressure rate.
Since 2011, Brady is 82-24 (.774) as a starter, but when breaking down his wins and losses, there are obvious differences. In losses, Brady was blitzed less frequently, but the pressure was a little more effective, resulting in more sacks and an interception rate that was more than double that in wins.
Getting pressure on Brady is obviously critical, but the Falcons do not have the defense the 2011 Giants had when they pressured Brady 33.3 percent of the time with only a 9.5 blitz rate. Quinn will have to be creative -- and patient.
What to make of these unusual Super Bowl defenses?
Perhaps the most misleading framing of Super Bowl LI is to call it the No. 1 offense (Atlanta) against the No. 1 defense (New England). Yes, the Falcons scored the most points in 2016 while the Patriots allowed the fewest, but this is arguably the most offensive-oriented Super Bowl in history. The Falcons and Patriots finished No.1 and No. 2, respectively, in offensive DVOA, and neither defense fared better than 16th.
In the past 20 seasons, the defense that finished No. 1 in points per drive allowed, as New England did this year, had never finished lower than eighth in Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings -- until the Patriots finished 16th. Bill Belichick's bend-but-don't-break style usually performs better in points allowed than DVOA anyway, but things were especially stacked in his favor this year.
The Patriots had the fewest giveaways (11) in the league as well as very strong kickoffs and punts, all of which helped the defense have the best average starting field position in the NFL. Even more importantly, the Patriots faced an abnormally weak slate of quarterbacks, which led to the easiest schedule of opposing offenses in 2016. Out of the 56 teams to reach the Super Bowl since 1989, the 2016 Patriots had the fourth-easiest schedule on defense based on average DVOA (minus-7.1 percent) of their opponents. Atlanta's offense will be by far the most difficult challenge for New England's defense. The big question: Will the Patriots' scoring defense regress closer to its DVOA ranking now that they're playing the NFL's best offense?
It also shouldn't be forgotten that Atlanta is in the conversation for the worst defense to ever reach a Super Bowl. The Falcons allowed 406 points in the regular season. The most regular-season points ever allowed by a Super Bowl winner: 400 by the 2011 Giants, who beat the Patriots. Oddly enough, those 2011 Patriots have the lowest-ranked unit (offense or defense) in DVOA to reach a Super Bowl since 1988. New England's 30th-ranked defense that season ultimately succumbed to Eli Manning (and Mario Manningham) at the end of Super Bowl XLVI.
Before the season started, we did a three-part study at Football Outsiders on building a Super Bowl winner, focusing on whether balance was really better than having one great unit. Well, the Falcons are as imbalanced as they come, with a 27th-ranked defense that would be the lowest-ranked unit to win a Super Bowl since 1989. Atlanta also ranked 27th in points per drive allowed, but also allowed a good share of garbage-time points, and have allowed more than 24 points only once in the previous nine games.
Atlanta did win six games this season when allowing at least 28 points, a single-season record. The Falcons' 11 wins are the most ever for a team that allowed 400 points in a season. One more high-scoring win may be a necessity against the Patriots.
Tackle the catch
With two suspect defenses and two great quarterbacks, expect a lot of pass completions in this game. That will make limiting yards after the catch (YAC) extra important, since Ryan (6.19) and Brady (6.04) led all quarterbacks in YAC per completion this season.
This is another area where the Patriots may have an easier time of exploiting the Falcons than vice versa. Including the playoffs, Atlanta was 10-0 when allowing less than 4.2 YAC per completion, but only 3-5 when quarterbacks surpassed that mark. Brady has surpassed that YAC mark in 12 of his 14 games this season, and in 83.0 percent of his games since 2011.
This season, Atlanta's defense was very good against starting wideouts and tight ends, but ranked 26th in DVOA against receiving backs. No pass defense allowed more receptions (109), yards (870) and touchdowns (six) to backs than Atlanta. James White ranked fifth in YAC per reception (8.82) this season, but this is where a back like Dion Lewis could really come in handy. The Patriots completed 11 passes for 64 yards to Shane Vereen in Super Bowl XLIX to make up for a lack of a running game against Quinn's scheme. Lewis could have that kind of impact. He's a much more elusive runner with the ball in his hands than Vereen was, and he can also win mismatches with linebackers deep down the field.
The passing games the Patriots played this season left a lot to be desired, but no quarterback averaged more than 6.0 YAC per completion in 18 games this season. Ryan had 13 such games, but struggled to do so when defenses were more passive against him. Against a three-man rush, Ryan's QBR was just 44.4 -- below the league average (55.8) and Brady (74.9). On defense, the Patriots ranked 15th in QBR (49.2) when sending a three-man rush, but the interesting part was just how often they did so. Quarterbacks had 159 dropbacks against New England's three-man rush in the regular season. The next closest defenses were Dallas (122) and Buffalo (98). The 2016 league average was 52.4 three-man rushes.
Given that the Falcons use play-action passing more than any offense in the league, the Patriots may have a good argument to remain passive in rushing Ryan. This allows for a maximum number of defenders in coverage to prevent Julio Jones or Taylor Gabriel from turning a short pass into a long gain.
That might go against the stats in the previous section that show blitzing Ryan is a good way to pressure him. However, this is why Super Bowl LI is a fascinating chess match. Both offenses have many ways of attacking, and the defensive coaches will have to be very careful with how they proceed against these quarterbacks.
Do call it a comeback?
In the 2016 regular season, the Falcons blew four fourth-quarter leads. Ten of the other 12 playoff teams blew one each, while the Raiders had no such losses. Atlanta's five losses were by a combined 22 points, and that helps to explain how the 11-5 Falcons rank No. 2 in point differential (plus-134) and No. 3 in DVOA for 2016.
Protecting leads was a problem for Atlanta head coach Quinn when he was the defensive coordinator of the Seahawks (2013-14). In Super Bowl XLIX against New England, Brady led a 10-point comeback against Quinn's defense, the largest comeback that led to a win in Super Bowl history.
Brady is 50-37 (.575) at game-winning drive opportunities in the fourth quarter and overtime in his career, the best record among all active quarterbacks. Ryan is not far behind in fourth place at 34-37 (.479), and he has the most game-winning drives through a player's first nine seasons in NFL history. He has also led five game-winning drives that started in the final 60 seconds of a game, another NFL record.
So far, this postseason has yet to have a fourth-quarter comeback, or much late-game drama period. However, every postseason since the 2006 season has had at least one fourth-quarter comeback. Twelve of the past 13 Super Bowls have been within one score in the fourth quarter. No team has ever won a Super Bowl after trailing by more than 10 points, though this could be the matchup where that finally happens with two great offenses and vulnerable defenses.