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Will the Patriots' weak QB schedule derail them on road to Super Bowl?

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Both Steelers and Patriots have skeletons in their closets (1:57)

The SportsNation crew discuss recent comments from Patriots WR Julian Edelman and Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger and decide who took the higher ground, even though both organizations have a history of player and organizational troubles. (1:57)

The winner of Super Bowl LI will have undoubtedly beaten two great quarterbacks in the final two games of the season. MVP favorite Matt Ryan already dueled Aaron Rodgers' Green Bay Packers in Week 8, but Ben Roethlisberger missed the big clash with Tom Brady's New England Patriots in Week 7. Backup Landry Jones started the 27-16 loss for the Pittsburgh Steelers.

In fact, New England's No. 1 scoring defense has caught a lot of breaks this season with the schedule, which ranks as the easiest in the league. The caliber of opposing quarterbacks has a lot to do with this, and it is part of why the Patriots defense ranks only 16th in DVOA, Football Outsiders' main efficiency metric (explained here) that adjusts for opponent strength.

One could argue that Russell Wilson was the only good quarterback the Patriots faced this season, and they lost at home in a 31-24 final. However, even Wilson was not on top of his game this season; he finished 15th in passing DVOA among qualified quarterbacks (minimum 200 pass attempts). The Patriots did not face a single quarterback who ranked in the top 12 in DVOA in 2016, so Roethlisberger (ranked ninth) will be their first, while Ryan (first) or Rodgers (eighth) would be a second should the Patriots advance to the Super Bowl.

On the other hand, the 2016 Packers have played the eighth-toughest set of quarterbacks based on average passing DVOA among the 108 teams to reach conference championship games since 1990. Atlanta's schedule of quarterbacks ranks 36th, while Pittsburgh's ranks 77th.

As for the 2016 Patriots, we have them firmly among the top-10 easiest quarterback schedules since 1990, which are outlined below. Only games in the regular season against quarterbacks who threw at least 10 passes in the game were included. We also noted the top quarterback faced that season in terms of highest DVOA ranking, the team's regular-season record in games against top-12 quarterbacks and which quarterbacks the teams faced in the postseason, with their DVOA rank for the season in parentheses.

1. 1992 Dallas Cowboys (minus-14.1 percent DVOA)

Result: Won Super Bowl XXVII vs. Buffalo Bills
Top quarterback faced: Jim Everett (6th)
Games vs. top-12 quarterbacks: 5 (3-2 record)
Postseason quarterbacks faced: Randall Cunningham (15th), Steve Young (1st) and Jim Kelly (5th)

The first of three Super Bowl winners for Dallas in the 1990s, the 1992 Cowboys pounced on the likes of Will Furrer (Bears), Stan Gelbaugh (Seahawks) and a young Tommy Maddox (Broncos) when John Elway was out for the Broncos. This Dallas team played only eight games against quarterbacks who threw at least 300 passes over the regular season.

Dallas had an impressive run in the playoffs, taking down Randall Cunningham's Eagles before winning a 30-20 classic in San Francisco against that season's league MVP, Steve Young. Dallas dispatched Jim Kelly's Bills in the Super Bowl, but Kelly did leave that game injured after throwing two interceptions on seven pass attempts. Dallas played most of the game against Frank Reich, the backup who engineered a record 32-point comeback against Houston that postseason but was unable to save the Bills from a 52-17 Super Bowl blowout.

2. 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (minus-13.1 percent DVOA)

Result: Won Super Bowl XXXVII vs. Oakland Raiders
Top quarterback faced: Tommy Maddox (13th)
Games vs. top-12 quarterbacks: None
Postseason quarterbacks faced: Jeff Garcia (8th), Donovan McNabb (21st) and Rich Gannon (4th)

We already have our second Tommy Maddox reference, and he was actually the best quarterback the historic 2002 Buccaneers faced in the regular season. That means the 2002 Buccaneers and 2016 Patriots are the only teams out of the 108 to not play a single regular-season game against a top-12 quarterback in DVOA. Tampa Bay dominated the likes of Randy Fasani (Panthers), Henry Burris (Bears) and Chris Redman (Ravens).

In the playoffs, Jeff Garcia and Donovan McNabb were no match for the Tampa-2 defense, but the masterpiece performance came in the Super Bowl against that season's league MVP Rich Gannon, who threw five interceptions in the 48-21 rout. Of course, Tampa coach Jon Gruden could have known quite a bit of what Gannon, his quarterback in Oakland, was going to run, but it was a great performance to cap off one of the more dominant defensive seasons we have seen.

3. 2000 New York Giants (minus-12.7 percent DVOA)

Result: Lost Super Bowl XXXV vs. Baltimore Ravens
Top quarterback faced: Trent Green (5th)
Games vs. top-12 quarterbacks: Two (1-1 record)
Postseason quarterbacks faced: Donovan McNabb (25th), Daunte Culpepper (4th) and Trent Dilfer (35th)

This was a forgettable Super Bowl team. The 2000 Giants played nine games against quarterbacks ranked 25th or lower in DVOA and only lost to Detroit's Charlie Batch out of that bunch. New York's best performance was a 41-0 NFC Championship Game domination of a great Minnesota offense led by Daunte Culpepper and Randy Moss.

Unfortunately, in the Super Bowl, the Giants ran into a historic Baltimore defense led by Ray Lewis, and Kerry Collins imploded on the big stage in a 34-7 loss known best for a ton of punts and back-to-back kickoff return touchdowns.

4. 1999 Jacksonville Jaguars (minus-12.6 percent DVOA)

Result: Lost AFC Championship vs. Tennessee Titans
Top quarterback faced: Steve Beuerlein (9th)
Games vs. top-12 quarterbacks: Two (1-1 record)
Postseason quarterbacks faced: Dan Marino (23rd) and Steve McNair (10th)

Jacksonville faced six quarterbacks ranked 33rd or worse in DVOA in 1999, which is why the average ranking in DVOA for this team (26.1) is the lowest among the 108 teams studied.

The 1999 Jaguars are really best remembered for two things: The 62-7 annihilation of Miami in the playoffs in Dan Marino's final NFL game, and finishing 15-3 with all three losses to the Titans. Yep, Tennessee, led by 10th-ranked passer Steve McNair, pulled off the three-game sweep of the Jaguars in the AFC Championship Game with a 33-14 road win. Jacksonville has not returned to the AFC Championship Game since.

5. 1997 San Francisco 49ers (minus-12.1 percent DVOA)

Result: Lost NFC Championship Game vs. Green Bay Packers
Top quarterback faced: Chris Chandler (3rd)
Games vs. top-12 quarterbacks: Four (2-2 record)
Postseason quarterbacks faced: Randall Cunningham (N/A) and Brett Favre (6th)

The 1997 49ers did play three games against Hall of Fame quarterbacks John Elway, Warren Moon and Troy Aikman, but they also saw Heath Shuler, Craig Whelihan and Kerry Collins, whom they intercepted three times in two different games. They also managed to hold St. Louis' Tony Banks below 40 percent completions in two games.

In the playoffs, the 49ers got past Randall Cunningham, who started only three games in the regular season for Minnesota that year. However, San Francisco was eliminated from the postseason for the third year in a row by MVP Brett Favre and the Packers.

6. 2016 New England Patriots (minus-12.0 percent DVOA)

Result: To be determined
Top quarterback faced: Andy Dalton (13th)
Games vs. top-12 quarterbacks: None
Postseason quarterbacks faced: Brock Osweiler (33rd) and Ben Roethlisberger (9th)

Believe it or not, Andy Dalton is the highest-rated quarterback in DVOA that the Patriots have faced this season. We mentioned Russell Wilson's win in Foxborough; Tyrod Taylor (19th) also won in New England this season, albeit without Tom Brady active for the Patriots. Otherwise, the Patriots have gone through Trevor Siemian (21st), Carson Palmer (22nd), Cody Kessler (23rd), Ryan Tannehill (25th), Joe Flacco (29th), Colin Kaepernick (30th), Ryan Fitzpatrick twice (32nd), Brock Osweiler (33rd) and Jared Goff (34th). For good measure, they also played two playoff teams that had to start backups Landry Jones and Matt Moore, while drawing Osweiler again in the playoffs last week.

Now, the Patriots could only play the schedule in front of them, but this is a most fortunate group of quarterbacks to face. Of the 108 teams studied, the Patriots are the only one to face a quarterback schedule with cumulative negative DYAR (total value, as opposed to DVOA, which measures value per play). Don't be surprised if one or two of the remaining quarterbacks carves up this New England defense in a championship game.

7. 1998 Minnesota Vikings (minus-11.4 percent DVOA)

Result: Lost NFC Championship Game vs. Atlanta Falcons
Top quarterback faced: Troy Aikman (7th)
Games vs. top-12 quarterbacks: 5 (5-0 record)
Postseason quarterbacks faced: Jake Plummer (23rd) and Chris Chandler (4th)

Led by Randall Cunningham, Cris Carter and a sensational rookie named Randy Moss, the 1998 Vikings were a 15-1 offensive juggernaut, seemingly capable of outscoring anyone. They swept Brett Favre's Packers and withstood a 455-yard performance from Troy Aikman in a 46-36 win on Thanksgiving Day. Believe it or not, the team's lone regular-season loss was to the lowest-rated passer they faced: Tampa Bay's Trent Dilfer (27th in DVOA).

After trouncing the outmatched Cardinals in the playoffs, the Vikings looked destined to head to Super Bowl XXXIII, but kicker Gary Anderson missed a field goal that would have given Minnesota a late 10-point lead in the NFC Championship. Anderson had not missed a kick all season until that moment, and the Falcons came back to win in overtime behind Chris Chandler, who had a career year himself.

8. 1998 Denver Broncos (minus-11.0 percent DVOA)

Result: Won Super Bowl XXXIII vs. Atlanta Falcons
Top quarterback faced: Troy Aikman (7th)
Games vs. top-12 quarterbacks: Three (3-0 record)
Postseason quarterbacks faced: Dan Marino (13th), Vinny Testaverde (2nd) and Chris Chandler (4th)

Much like the 1998 Vikings, who hoped to play Denver in the Super Bowl, the Broncos leaned on their offense. Behind John Elway and MVP running back Terrell Davis, they outscored the likes of Troy Aikman, Drew Bledsoe and Mark Brunell on their way to a 13-0 start, but were upset by the 13-point underdog Giants in Week 15 behind a late Kent Graham touchdown pass to Amani Toomer.

Denver's defense was outstanding in the playoffs, holding three very good offenses to a combined 25 points on its way to back-to-back Super Bowl wins.

9. 1991 Buffalo Bills (minus-10.8 percent DVOA)

Result: Lost Super Bowl XXVI vs. Washington Redskins
Top quarterback faced: Dan Marino (6th; played him twice)
Games vs. top-12 quarterbacks: Four (3-1 record)
Postseason quarterbacks faced: Steve DeBerg (9th), John Elway (24th) and Mark Rypien (1st)

The second of four straight Super Bowl losses for Buffalo, the 1991 Bills were a potent, offensively driven team. They outgunned rival Dan Marino in two games but also feasted on two games each from division duds such as Jeff George (32nd in DVOA) and Hugh Millen (28th). Half of Buffalo's schedule came against quarterbacks ranked 25th or worse in DVOA.

The Bills caught some breaks against the AFC in the playoffs. Steve DeBerg left the divisional round loss with a sprained thumb, and backup Mark Vlasic threw four interceptions in his place. The following week, John Elway, who was having one of his lesser seasons, also left the game early and was replaced by Gary Kubiak, who led the only scoring drive for Denver that day. But the Bills were then exposed by Super Bowl MVP Mark Rypien, who led the league in DVOA that year for a Washington team that has the highest DVOA (56.9 percent) of any team we've ever measured (since 1989).

10. 1999 St. Louis Rams (minus-10.6 percent DVOA)

Result: Won Super Bowl XXXIV vs. Tennessee Titans
Top quarterback faced: Gus Frerotte (7th)
Games vs. top-12 quarterbacks: Four (2-2 record)
Postseason quarterbacks faced: Jeff George (3rd), Shaun King (N/A) and Steve McNair (10th)

The 1999 NFL season was full of surprises, but none bigger than the Rams coming out of nowhere to have a dominant, Super Bowl-winning season. They did face the easiest schedule in the league and lost to half of the top quarterbacks they played, but the Rams were a top-four team on offense and defense. They just happened to face three rookie quarterbacks ranked 30th or worse in DVOA (Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb and Cade McNown), while also embarrassing New Orleans' concoction of the Billy Joes (Tolliver and Hobert).

In the playoffs, the Rams outgunned Jeff George's Vikings, escaped a strong Tampa Bay defense that had to start rookie Shaun King at quarterback and stepped up to stop Steve McNair's comeback bid at the 1-yard line in the Super Bowl.

Conclusion

Four of the above nine teams who are not the 2016 Patriots still went on to win the Super Bowl. Only one team that played one of the nine other toughest quarterback schedules won the Super Bowl (2003 Patriots). At this point in the season, all that matters is how the teams perform now. We found in this 108-team dataset that the Super Bowl winners have actually faced the easiest group of quarterbacks on average with the fewest number of games against top-12 quarterbacks.

Fortunately, with a final four that features quarterbacks this good, we should see a Super Bowl winner who had to win two high-scoring games, or a defense that stepped up in grand fashion on the game's biggest stages.