Each member of our NFL Insiders panel offers his pick for the best 25-and-under quarterback in the league. Plus: Offensive coordinators who have been the most impressive, and grades of Aaron Rodgers' performance so far this season.
Which 25-and-under QB would you like for the long term?
Matt Bowen, NFL writer: Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr is the pick because of his development this season and the tremendous upside to his game. Carr has top-tier arm strength and the athleticism to make plays off rhythm, and we've seen growth in the pocket. Carr can throw from multiple platforms and anticipate windows with touch passes, and he is using his entire toolbox to attack opposing secondaries. But along with the numbers this year -- 17 touchdowns and just three interceptions -- the tape shows us the quick rise in Carr's learning curve. He's beating pressure and winning in critical game situations. The young QB has a super-high ceiling and is an ideal fit for today's NFL game, which features a blend of pro-style and spread concepts.
John Clayton, senior NFL writer: I'd go with Carr. As one GM put it, Carr's release and the way he pinpoints some throws reminds him of Tom Brady. Carr also has that Brett Favre fearlessness. I like the fact that he's perfecting comeback wins. Plus, he wins games on the road, and that's tough for any 25-and-under quarterback. There's a good young group of QBs -- but Carr is at the head of that class. You also like the fact that he is a good pocket passer and doesn't have to rely on his legs to make plays; that gives him more longevity in the league. Carr has it all. It will be interesting to see how quickly he starts to move up into the group of elite quarterbacks. That is coming.
Scott Kacsmar, Football Outsiders assistant editor: Marcus Mariota (Titans) and Dak Prescott (Cowboys) have the desired combination of accuracy and mobility to do damage from inside and outside the pocket. I still lean toward Mariota because of his pedigree, but I can see that Prescott is in a better situation for long-term success. Mariota will still miss some easy throws that he should make, but his best games have been really strong -- he has put up three-plus touchdowns in eight of his first 22 games, which has been surpassed by only Dan Marino (nine) and Kurt Warner (12) in NFL history. Early-career success at quarterback is a great predictor for long-term success.
Mike Sando, senior NFL writer: Carr is the choice based on skill in combination with turnover avoidance. Jameis Winston (Bucs) and Mariota turn over the ball too frequently -- Winston through the air and Mariota with his ball security. Carr throws as well, if not better, than both Winston and Mariota, and seems to be ascending.
Kevin Seifert, national NFL writer: Carr has more game experience than any of the other young quarterbacks in the NFL, so this is an easy pick. We've already seen Carr take promise and convert it into high-level play. It helps to have a strong offensive line, as the Raiders do, but Carr has dramatically improved when he is under pressure -- the one deficiency that scouts noted in his pre-draft evaluation.
Which offensive coordinator have you been most impressed with this season?
Bowen: With the production of Prescott, it has to be Cowboys offensive coordinator Scott Linehan. Yes, the Cowboys' offensive line and the running game with Ezekiel Elliott allows Dallas to control tempo and create play-action opportunities -- I get it. But the Cowboys' OC also has built a hyper-efficient passing game with Prescott. The rookie is completing 66.8 percent of his passes, has thrown for 14 touchdowns (and only two interceptions) and his 82.5 Total QBR is second only to Tom Brady. Just look at the middle-of-the-field throws, the movement passes and the concepts that produce inside matchups. Linehan has done a good job of meshing QB-designed runs and run-pass options into the game plan, all of which cater to Prescott's skill set. Adapt to your personnel and put your players in a position to produce -- that's coaching.
Clayton: Kyle Shanahan of the Atlanta Falcons. He has gone out of his way to be creative with a lot of the running plays. When Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman are on the field together, Shanahan keeps defensive coordinators guessing with some of the creative ways the Falcons run the ball. He has some great packages with fullback Patrick DiMarco and has finally found the right way to run his offense based on Matt Ryan's skills. Ryan isn't a rollout quarterback -- he's a no-huddle, quick-decision-making quarterback who can get the ball to his wide receivers. Shanahan has used Ryan with the right tempo and a better ability to distribute the ball to all of his weapons.
Kacsmar: I like how Shanahan has turned things around in Atlanta after a tumultuous start in 2015, when the Falcons slipped to 23rd in offensive DVOA. They've been No. 1 this year, and the highest-scoring offense in the NFL, as well as one of the most versatile. Ryan really struggled down the stretch last season, but has played at an MVP-level this season under Shanahan. The offense is not as focused on Julio Jones as in past years. Tevin Coleman has emerged as a very good receiving back and complement to Devonta Freeman. The offensive line has been solidified with the addition of center Alex Mack from Cleveland. Sunday was a hiccup, but Shanahan's offense has arguably produced the best offensive results of the season while playing a schedule with three of the toughest games you can have: on the road at Denver, Seattle and Philadelphia.
Sando: Have we forgotten what Josh McDaniels accomplished during the four games Tom Brady missed while suspended? Jimmy Garoppolo flashed onto the scene as a potential young star. The team even won with Jacoby Brissett before an injury affected the rookie third-round choice. Brady's presence on the roster lets McDaniels change his game plans weekly, and alter his offensive approach from season to season based on personnel. Many other coaches would have a hard time straying from their systems.
Seifert: It's always amazing how the perception of coaches can rely on the quality of his players. When Bill Musgrave was the Vikings' offensive coordinator from 2011 to 2013, he was viewed as unimaginative and out of touch as the team struggled to move the ball with quarterbacks Christian Ponder and Matt Cassel. Now, with a Raiders offense that includes Carr, one of the NFL's top offensive lines and high-end weapons at both receiver (Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree) and running back (Latavius Murray), Musgrave looks like a genius. His offense ranks No. 4 in the NFL, with a scoring average of 27.2 points per game.
How would you grade Aaron Rodgers' performance this season?
Bowen: Rodgers has pretty decent numbers on the season -- 2,410 yards passing, 22 touchdowns and seven interceptions -- and he still makes those throws that absolutely jump off the film. Ridiculous stuff. However, when breaking down his tape, it's clear that Rodgers has played inconsistent football this season. There are a lot of factors at work here. Look at the erratic play calling in Green Bay, or the route tree, or the inability of the wide receivers to win one-on-ones in certain game situations. But then we see the technique concerns pop up with Rodgers, the lack of trust he has in some of his targets, and the plays to be made that he leaves on the field. A grade? I'd give Rodgers a C-plus. Too much up and down for a team that is playing below average football.
Clayton: I'd give him a C. I've rated Rodgers as the No. 1 or No. 2 quarterback for years, but he has been average this season. He's not in sync with his receivers, and he hasn't been comfortable in the pocket on a consistent basis. I'm still trying to figure out why defensive coordinators are putting a spy on him to keep him in the pocket. With his arm and decision-making, you would think you would not want him to beat you from the pocket. He had a 15-game stretch when he struggled to get 300 yards -- eclipsing the mark only once before putting up 371 against Tennessee last week -- and his yards-per-completion average was at a career low. Something just isn't right. He doesn't have a lot of speed at the receiver position, but he has enough talent there. I know the lack of a running game has hurt of late, but he had a decent running game in that 15-game slump dating back to last year. It's one of the most puzzling stories in the league this year.
Kacsmar: Rodgers used to turn in A and A-plus seasons, but he slipped closer to a C-plus quarterback last season with no apparent injury to explain his decline. If we can credit him for all the great throws he used to make with ease, and getting receivers other than Jordy Nelson involved, then we can certainly criticize him when things go south -- ever since that rough night in Denver a season ago. Through 116 career games, Rodgers averaged 8.22 yards per pass attempt, but he's down to 6.25 over his past 19 games. That type of decline just has not happened to an all-time great apart from injury or old age. Rodgers, who should still be in his prime, is working through a funk that could require a fresh set of eyes at head coach to fix next season.
Sando: It's tough giving Rodgers a grade as high as the ones he has earned in the past, but I wouldn't go below a B. This could go down as one of his more impressive seasons based on the personnel issues around him. The passing game obviously isn't as cohesive, but Rodgers still has 22 touchdown passes through nine games. Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer and Matt Ryan are the only QBs to throw more through nine games over the past five seasons. The Packers have been playing without starting-caliber tight ends or running backs, and the defense hasn't been good enough to pick up the slack consistently. Rodgers is scrambling to keep Green Bay competitive. He has six runs for first downs on third-and-5 or longer -- twice as many as any other quarterback. His passes have drawn seven defensive pass-interference penalties for a league-high 239 yards.
Seifert: Rodgers has always suffered from skewed perception. He made so many unique and singular throws early in his career that any performance short of exemplary is now viewed as a regression. With that said, his accuracy has dropped -- and it's not simply the result of deteriorating personnel around him. Rodgers' off-target rate of 19.1 percent ranks 24th in the league and, overall, he gets a B for his play this season.