Our panel of NFL Insiders weigh in on where Derek Carr should rank in MVP consideration. Plus: Who is the most valuable non-quarterback in the league, and which offseason addition has proved most important for a contender?
Where does Derek Carr rank on your MVP ballot?
Matt Bowen, NFL writer: At this point of the season, I'd put Carr right behind Matt Ryan. The Raiders are off to a 6-2 start, and Carr has already tossed 17 touchdowns with only three interceptions. Plus, he's showing up in critical game situations -- that's why the Raiders are a legit contender in the AFC West. However, let's not forget about Tom Brady. After returning from his suspension, Brady is 4-0 with 12 touchdown passes and a league-high 92.9 total QBR, and he has yet to throw a pick. I know it's only four games, but if Brady continues to play at this level, he has to be in the mix at the end of the year.
Dan Graziano, national NFL insider: Top five is as far as I can go right now, as it's a free-for-all among several candidates. Ezekiel Elliott is my front-runner right now. I'd also give strong consideration to Ryan, Sam Bradford and, of course, Brady -- though the fact that Brady has played only four games would hurt his case, even if you assume that wasn't his fault. Carr and the Raiders are a fascinating team. They feel like an out-of-control train car that's somehow making all the stops. I have no idea whether what they're doing is sustainable, but it sure is fun to watch.
KC Joyner, NFL writer: As notable as Carr's 513 yards and four touchdowns were on Sunday, he posted those numbers against a Tampa Bay defense that's tied for 25th in yards per attempt and has one of the worst starting safety tandems in the NFL. Carr also ranks 11th in Total QBR (65.9) and 20th in yards per attempt (7.2). Given those factors, he would rank behind Brady, Ryan and Elliott on my MVP ballot and could rate even lower.
Scott Kacsmar, Football Outsiders assistant editor: Since I think the award almost has to go to a quarterback on a winning team, you really have only a few options since some of the top players have been suspended or injured this year. I would put Carr second behind Ryan, who has excelled against a tougher schedule than Carr to this point. Ryan's DVOA (35.2 percent) is more than double that of Carr's (16.4 percent), as he's been a much more efficient passer, including in the head-to-head matchup in Week 2, when Ryan outplayed Carr. Carr has gotten lucky with some fourth-down penalties and dropped interceptions this season, and I'm skeptical he will continue his success once the schedule gets tougher this week against Denver.
Mike Sando, senior NFL writer: Brady, Ryan, Aaron Rodgers and Elliott would be higher. Brady, Ryan and Rodgers have the production and the pedigrees. We know they're legit. Elliott is the No. 1 reason Dallas has flourished with a young quarterback. Carr will climb higher on my ballot when he conquers the top defenses he needs to beat within his own division. He hasn't played Denver yet, and played once against Kansas City, bombing against the Chiefs and continuing a trend he'll need to break. By the way, Carr had 19 TDs with four INTs at this point last season; he then ranked 29th out of 29 qualifying quarterbacks in Total QBR over the Raiders' final eight games, tossing 13 TDs with nine INTs. A strong finish from Carr this season will validate what we've seen to this point.
The NFL's most valuable non-QB is ...
Bowen: Cowboys rookie running back Elliott would be a solid choice here because of his versatility and overall production. Elliott is averaging 5.03 yards per carry and leads the NFL with 799 yards rushing. However, Von Miller is still the most disruptive defensive player in the league. He has 8.5 sacks on the season, but the tape tells us it's much more than numbers. This guy can create chaos in the pocket, and that impacts the entire defense in Denver. He's the catalyst for the 6-2 Broncos.
Graziano: Elliott, with a big assist to the five big guys opening holes for him. The Cowboys drafted Elliott fourth overall thinking he was good enough to help their entire roster: maintain ball control, keep the defense off the field and reduce the pressure on the quarterback -- and that was even before they knew they'd be playing a fourth-round rookie at QB. He has delivered on all of his promise and, along with the offensive line, is the biggest reason the Cowboys are at the top of the NFC.
Joyner: It has to be Elliott because of his ability to impact the entire Dallas squad. The Cowboys' defense ranks 11th in ESPN Stats & Information's defensive expected points added metric, which measures a platoon's scoreboard impact in an expected points added framework. Dallas does not have top-10-caliber talent on that platoon but is playing at a near-top-10 level because Elliott and the Cowboys' offense can control game situations.
Kacsmar: Miller's ability to disrupt plays is still key to making Denver's defense so special. Beyond just getting sacks, he gets timely plays that help lead to game-deciding takeaways. While the Broncos can lose DeMarcus Ware or Aqib Talib for stretches at a time, Miller is the one player Denver cannot afford to be without.
Sando: Elliott is an easy choice based on the role he plays in allowing the Cowboys to play games on their terms, which is critical for them.
Who has been the most important offseason addition for a contender?
Bowen: Jim Schwartz has transformed the Eagles' defense in his first year as coordinator. Through seven games, this Philadelphia unit is holding opposing quarterbacks to a Total QBR of 40.1 (second in the NFL) and is giving up only 16.71 points per game (fourth in the NFL). Plus, I see a defense that is playing with technique and speed on the tape. That's coaching; that's building a defensive identity.
Graziano: I feel like, since I said Elliott for the last question, he has to be the answer here, too. But repeating myself would be lazy, so I'll go with Alex Mack in Atlanta. The Falcons had major problems snapping the ball last year, and he has obviously solidified that. But he has also solidified everything along that offensive line, and the offense has congealed nicely around him. If a center could be an MVP candidate, he'd be one.
Joyner: Tennessee Titans offensive line coach Russ Grimm. The Titans ranked dead last in the league in 2015 in my good blocking rate (GBR) metric that measures how often an offense gives its ball carriers quality run blocking (roughly defined as not allowing the defense to disrupt a rush attempt). Grimm has led to a complete turnaround here, as Tennessee leads the league in GBR and has been at the No. 1 spot for almost the entire season.
Kacsmar: The Titans are at least contenders in the AFC South, so I'll say running back DeMarco Murray. A lot of people gave up on him after last season's disappointing Philadelphia experiment, but he is a great fit for the run-heavy Titans. Murray is the league's second-leading rusher with 756 yards, has converted 90 percent of his third-down runs for first downs and is tied for the team lead in receptions (28).
Sando: Alex Mack was No. 1 on my preseason list of signings in free agency. I'll stick with him based on how Atlanta's offensive line and running game have come together, elevating Matt Ryan into the MVP discussion. He has been the force multiplier the Falcons hoped they were getting when owner Arthur Blank opened the vault for Mack.