One productive half against the Chicago Bears could not realistically suppress all the panic surrounding Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers' offense. The concerns draw from a yearlong decline in production. A recent column in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel suggested Rodgers had fallen from the ranks of the greats as a result.
Rodgers has never been worse through six games of a season when it comes to completion percentage, yards per pass attempt and passer rating. There are real issues with the offense, but the conventional numbers paint an incomplete and misleading picture: Rodgers has never been better through six games in three key areas.
Rodgers remains right in line with past seasons when it comes to Total QBR, the ESPN metric that measures how quarterbacks contribute to winning. Coaches and evaluators see no physical decline for Rodgers. They expressed more concern about the Packers' defense than for a quarterback with eight more total touchdowns than turnovers, which is tied with Ben Roethlisberger and Derek Carr for fourth in the league.
A deep dive into Rodgers' season reveals why.
The good
Big shift in sacks: Rodgers has taken 11 sacks. He has never taken fewer sacks through the first six games of a season. Not all sacks are equal, but fortunately, ESPN has an expected points added (EPA) metric that reveals just how much each play affects teams' chances of scoring and, by extension, their chances for winning. Rodgers' sack EPA is a career best through six games. The sacks he has taken have not been killer, by and large.
Incredible rushing value: Rodgers' conventional rushing statistics are nothing to gloat about. He has his sixth-highest career totals for rushes (22) and rushing yards (96) through six games. Do not be fooled. Rodgers' rushes have carried more value than ever before through the first six games of a season.
The reason? The Packers lead the NFL in third-down conversion rate (50.6 percent), but they would rank only 11th without the seven conversions Rodgers provided with his legs. Rodgers' scoring run against Minnesota on third-and-goal from the 10 was worth 2.6 EPA. Among his rushing contributions, Rodgers had a 9-yard run on third-and-8 against the Vikings (plus-2.2 EPA), an 11-yard run on third-and-10 against the Giants (plus-2.0), an 8-yard run on third-and-6 against Chicago (plus-1.8) and a 9-yarder against Dallas on third-and-7 (plus-1.7). Those are game-changing plays -- and they don't show up in his passing stats.
Game-changing penalties: The Packers have drawn seven penalties for 239 yards on defensive pass interference calls. No other team over the past decade has drawn more than 163 yards via DPI through six games of a season.
Rodgers' traditional stats didn't change on Thursday night, when the Packers drew a 44-yard penalty against the Bears for defensive pass interference. Think that play was important? It added 1.1 EPA and 8.2 percentage points toward the Packers' win probability. It was a huge swing, and one Rodgers helped make happen.
The neutral-zone infraction Rodgers and the Packers drew against Jacksonville in the fourth quarter of the season opener was another biggie. This penalty on third-and-8 from the Jacksonville 15 added 3.5 EP.
Rodgers' plus-5.9 EPA on penalties leads the league and is his best (by far) through the first six games of a season.
The bad
Completion rate lags (but ...): Rodgers has thrown away the ball 14 times this season, a career high for him through six games. This could help explain why sacks are down, but throwing away the ball also affects completion rate. Rodgers has averaged about seven throwaways through six games in previous seasons. His completion rate this season would jump from 62.4 percent to 64.3 percent if we removed seven throwaways from the 2016 equation. Rodgers has a 65.8 completion rate through the first six games of seasons for his career. His low completion rate this season could be overrated.
Yards per attempt lags (but ...): Rodgers is averaging 6.3 yards per pass attempt, by far the lowest of his career through the first six games of a season. He was at 8.3 YPA through the first six games of his previous eight seasons. This is where those seven DPI penalties for 239 yards should come into play. Adding seven completions for 239 yards to Rodgers' passing totals would bump his YPA to 7.1 for the season -- still low for him but not alarmingly so.
The bottom line
The Packers have no difference-making tight end to stretch the seam. They cut the leader of their offensive line, Josh Sitton, right before the season. Their best receiver, Jordy Nelson, has yet to reemerge as a dynamic threat following knee surgery.
"With no camp and not much practice, this is like Week 2 of the season for Jordy Nelson," a personnel evaluator from another team said. "You have to practice to be good at something. Jordy and Aaron not practicing together affects timing, trust level, everything."
When the Packers stood pat at running back last offseason, it qualified as their No. 1 gamble in my June column assessing offseason risks. Guess what? The Packers spent Thursday night handing off the ball to a wide receiver on runs between the tackles. Incredible!
Rodgers himself has never been Tom Brady when it comes to pocket fundamentals. He holds the ball low and in one hand at times, increasing the risk for turnovers. He throws from awkward body angles. The payoffs for Green Bay have more than offset the risks in past seasons, but the margin for error appears lower than usual now.
Coaches who watched the Packers beat the Bears on Thursday night saw Green Bay reverting to the first pages of the Mike McCarthy playbook. The Packers have put Rodgers back under center more frequently. They are running their quick game. They are letting Rodgers run around but making sure he throws away the ball to avoid negative plays. It must feel remedial at times for Rodgers, but there's something in it for him. He set a franchise record for pass completions in a game (39) on Thursday night.
This might not be a formula for winning a championship, but the Packers have won only one of those in the previous 19 seasons. They have a 4-2 record through six games this season and have a chance to improve on offense if Nelson reemerges, the running backs get healthy and the offensive line comes together. In the meantime, Rodgers is doing more than it might appear on the surface to keep Green Bay competitive.