Colin Kaepernick has been named the starting quarterback for the 49ers. Our panel of NFL Insiders breaks down what went wrong previously with Kaepernick in San Francisco, whether it can be fixed and whether he'll be with the team next season.
From 2012 to 2013, Kaepernick ranked second in Total QBR behind only Peyton Manning (including playoffs). What happened?
John Clayton, senior NFL writer: He was successful early, but he didn't improve. You can't take away what he did well early -- he helped to carry San Francisco to Super Bowl XLVII. But like a pitcher in baseball who doesn't adjust to opposing batters, Kaepernick never made adjustments. He struggled to get to his second, third and fourth reads in passing progression. He has an elongated delivery that he hasn't fixed. When he's flushed to his left, he comes out throwing a fastball. In this league, you can't stay stagnant.
Dan Graziano, national NFL Insider: Go back to the Super Bowl season. The 49ers used to talk about the challenge of developing Kaepernick while at the same time taking advantage of his unique ability and the strong group around him to try to win while he developed. They came very close to winning it all, but somewhere along the line, whether it was his fault or the coaching staff's, Kaepernick never advanced as a passer, never corrected the issues with his throwing motion, etc. Add the injuries, the deterioration of the roster and the coaching staff changes of the past two years, and you have a quarterback who's in his sixth actual season but never advanced beyond the second or third year of his NFL development. It's not too dissimilar to the Robert Griffin III story.
KC Joyner, NFL writer: His production on vertical and stretch vertical passes -- aerials thrown 11 or more yards and 20 or more yards downfield, respectively -- collapsed. In 2012, Kaepernick ranked second in vertical YPA (13.8) and first in stretch vertical YPA (17.2) if penalty plays such as pass interference and defensive holding are included. Fast-forward to 2014 and Kaepernick was tied for 29th in vertical YPA (10.0) and 31st in stretch vertical YPA (10.6). A lot of the blame here has to go to the 49ers' tight ends. In 2012, the 49ers got superb performances from Delanie Walker and Vernon Davis, both of whom were in the top 10 among tight ends in vertical YPA. In 2014, Walker was no longer on the team, and Davis posted an abysmal 4.8 vertical YPA that ranked 37th (next to last) among tight ends.
Mike Sando, senior NFL writer: The support structure around him collapsed in almost unprecedented fashion. Almost overnight, the 49ers went from among the NFL's best to among its worst along the offensive line (including tight end) and on defense. The coaching situation also deteriorated as Jim Harbaugh wore out his welcome and ownership did a poor job finding a replacement. Kaepernick can be effective when everything around him is right. Few quarterbacks could have flourished in San Francisco given all that changed.
Will the 49ers be better with Kaepernick than they were with Blaine Gabbert?
Clayton: If Kaepernick can stay healthy, they might get a little bit better. Gabbert had 24 three-and-outs in his first five starts. I don't see a big improvement, though. Neither quarterback has enough offensive weapons to use. Kaepernick might cause more problems for defenses because he's such a gifted runner, but Gabbert's not a bad runner either. It's also worth wondering whether Kaepernick might make more mistakes and turnovers.
Graziano: I see no change at all. They'll still struggle to protect him. They still won't have any significant threat at wide receiver. They still lack edge players who can get the defense off the field consistently and get the offense the ball to allow it to develop some kind of rhythm. This is a team with problems that run deeper than quarterback. Also, the last time we saw Kaepernick play wasn't that long ago -- less than a calendar year -- and he was no better at that time than Gabbert is now.
Joyner: Better, with a caveat about his health. Gabbert ranks 25th in vertical YPA this year (9.2). Part of that is due to his having thrown only 11 vertical passes to Torrey Smith, a pace that ranks tied for 47th in that category. Smith is still one of the best downfield receivers in the NFL -- he was fifth in vertical YPA last season (15.0, if penalty plays are included). Coach Chip Kelly's system can get the vertical pass game going, something evidenced by Sam Bradford leading the league in vertical YPA from Week 9 to Week 17 last season (15.1). If Kelly calls for more downfield passes to Smith with Kaepernick under center -- and the quarterback is physically up to par -- this offense has nowhere to go but up.
Sando: Better, if Kaepernick is healthy and motivated. Is he? That is difficult to assume. While Kelly has never sought to build his NFL offenses around dual-threat players, he has the ability to go that route. Gabbert has been pretty effective as a runner, which explains why his Total QBR scores were higher than one might have expected watching San Francisco play.
Is Kaepernick a member of the 49ers next season? And if not, what will the market be like for him?
Clayton: He's gone, and he will have a limited market. The limited market is because there won't be as many teams as usual looking for starting quarterbacks. I don't see him as a fit in Cleveland. Buffalo should keep Tyrod Taylor. I don't think the Jets will go for him. His work on a restructured contract that he can void after the season shows he doesn't see much future in San Francisco. That the team wants him to void his injury waiver in 2017 shows that the Niners want to make sure Kaepernick can be released.
Graziano: I would be shocked if Kaepernick is a 49er next year. The only way I see it happening is if he plays lights-out the rest of the year and makes everybody think he can once again be the 2012-13 version of himself. I find that unlikely, which means I think he's destined to be a part of that backup quarterback market next offseason -- selling himself as an upside play who can come in and compete for a spot on a team looking for answers at the position.
Joyner: The NFL is a talent-trumps-all league. If Kaepernick shows he is close to his former elite physical level, either the 49ers will keep him or some other team will sign him with the hopes that it can rekindle the magic from 2012-13. If Kaepernick shows his physical skills and durability have diminished too far, no team will have interest.
Sando: Kaepernick and the 49ers seem destined to go their separate ways after the season. I could see a team signing Kaepernick for Chase Daniel-type money if he is convincing in his motivation to regenerate his career. No team is going to name Kaepernick its starter outright, but he could certainly be in the mix.