It's a well-worn truism in the NFL that sometimes teams go from last to first in their division very quickly. The last few seasons haven't seen the kind of huge one-season reversals that we saw 15 years ago. It's been a while since a team went from five or six wins to a Super Bowl title the way that the Rams and Patriots did around the turn of the century. Still, roughly one team per season climbs from last place into the postseason. Last year it was Washington, and while no team accomplished this feat in 2014, two teams did in 2013: Kansas City and Philadelphia.
So which of last year's eight last-place teams are most likely to make their way into the playoffs? One is the clear favorite: the Dallas Cowboys. It won't be a big surprise for the Cowboys to go from last to first, because last year they went from first to last.
Below, we've gone through the eight teams that finished in last place in each division last season, ranked by their odds of making the postseason in 2016. These odds are based on the huge 2016 simulation that we ran for our new book Football Outsiders Almanac 2016. The system predicts each team's DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average, explained here) on offense, defense and special teams using a number of variables, including performance over the last three years, coaching experience and personnel changes. Then we simulate the season a million times to get a wide range of possibilities that account for every team's best-case and worst-case scenario.
1. Dallas Cowboys
Playoff odds: 50.5 percent (8th of 32 teams)
Two years ago, Dallas went 12-4 and ranked sixth overall in DVOA. Last year, the Cowboys went 4-12 and ranked 27th. The main difference between the teams was health on offense. The Cowboys ranked about the same in defense and special teams each year, but the offense imploded without Tony Romo and Dez Bryant healthy (and, to a lesser extent, without DeMarco Murray to draw defensive attention).
Since 1990, there have been only nine teams that kept their starting quarterback and No. 1 wide receiver from the previous season, only to see those players each play fewer than 10 games because of injury. It's a rare occurrence that devastates an offense, and it happened to Dallas and Baltimore last season. The Cowboys don't just get Romo and Bryant back; they also add Ezekiel Elliott to give them a better running game, more like the one they had in 2014.
There's also a strong indicator that the Dallas defense will be more productive in 2016. Last year, the Cowboys ranked last in the NFL, ending only 6.0 percent of opponent drives with a turnover. Having a turnover rate that low almost always regresses toward the mean the following season, just like it did for the Jets' defense between 2014 and 2015. (Incidentally, this is another indicator that the Cowboys share with the Ravens, who ranked 31st in this stat.) The Cowboys are unlikely to be a good defense, given the questions about the pass rush with Greg Hardy gone and DeMarcus Lawrence suspended for four games. But a better turnover ratio makes it more likely they'll be an average defense instead of a bad one.
2. San Diego Chargers
Playoff odds: 37.2 percent (14th)
Like Dallas, the Chargers look primed to bounce back. San Diego certainly wasn't as good as Dallas in 2014, but they were a roughly .500 team for five straight years before things collapsed to 4-12 last season. There isn't a huge difference between those .500 teams and the Chargers today, and there's a strong and important similarity: Philip Rivers.
Quarterback is still the most important position in the game, and the Chargers still have one of the top quarterbacks in the league. Rivers dropped to 59.4 QBR last year, 20th among qualifying quarterbacks, but San Diego's schedule had a lot to do with that. Rivers ranked higher (11th) in Football Outsiders' passing DVOA, which adjusts for the fact that he faced Denver's and Kansas City's strong pass defenses twice each. The biggest issue in Rivers' game last year was that he threw fewer deep passes than in past years, but the arrival of Travis Benjamin and maturation of Tyrell Williams should help rectify that.
3. Tennessee Titans
Playoff odds: 28.9 percent (21st)
Life is easier in the AFC South, where the NFL might consider getting rid of the idea of "first place" and instead offering all four teams a nice participation ribbon at the end of the year. All four teams in this division average fewer than 8.0 wins in our million-season simulations. Tennessee's DVOA projection is 29th in the league, but the weakness of the AFC South gives the Titans better playoff odds than stronger teams such as the Jets, Rams and Eagles. The Titans have the easiest projected schedule in the league based on our DVOA forecast. And actually, the Titans' odds are probably higher than what's listed above, because our simulations were done before we could account for J.J. Watt's early-season injury.
Otherwise, the only reason to really recommend the Titans as a playoff team is the presence of the talented Marcus Mariota. Our stat projection system sees Tennessee as a team on the rise because our QBASE projection system loved Mariota so much. On the other hand, Mike Mularkey has a lousy head-coaching record, and his plan to build the Titans' offense around "exotic smashmouth" football seems stuck in the '70s and simultaneously misunderstands Mariota's skill set.
The Titans have an underrated pass rush, with Derrick Morgan, Jurrell Casey and a refreshed Brian Orakpo. But their secondary has a lot of question marks, and there's no reason to expect an above-average defense here.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Playoff odds: 26.4 percent (24th)
It's really easy to tell the story of how the Tampa Bay Buccaneers can become a playoff team in 2016: 1) Jameis Winston builds upon his strong rookie year and takes another step forward. 2) Doug Martin plays like he did in 2015 and not like he did in 2013 and 2014, when he couldn't even average 4 yards per carry. 3) Veteran additions Brent Grimes and Daryl Smith reinvigorate the defense instead of playing like they're in their mid-30s. 4) Carolina's defense gets hit by injuries and its rookie cornerbacks struggle, dropping the Panthers to 8-8.
The problem with that story is that it just isn't very likely, except for the part about Winston. Martin is unlikely to repeat the strong performance of 2015. The Bucs are adding a bunch of old guys to a mediocre defense; Grimes in particular is past his prime, but at least he's not on a milk carton at this point like Alterraun Verner. Carolina's defense will take a step back -- its high turnover ratio last year will lead to a regression effect that's the opposite of what will happen to the Cowboys -- but the Panthers' inexperience at cornerback will probably still be masked by a spectacular front seven, making it hard for any other team to win the NFC South.
5. Chicago Bears
Playoff odds: 21.7 percent (28th)
The good news: Chicago is probably not going to have 83 pass targets going to Josh Bellamy, Marc Mariani and Cameron Meredith. It's a lot better to throw to a healthy Alshon Jeffery and Kevin White. The bad news: Chicago will miss Matt Forte, particularly in the passing game. The offensive line has very little continuity from last season. And the defense, which has been near the bottom of the league for three straight years, should be better in the second year of Vic Fangio's scheme, but the free agents who spur a defense to take a significant leap forward are usually pass-rushers or star cornerbacks, not inside linebackers such as Jerrell Freeman and Danny Trevathan.
6. Miami Dolphins
Playoff odds: 13.3 percent (30th)
Based on our projections, the top four teams going into 2016 are Seattle, Arizona, Pittsburgh and New England. It's not a surprise that we see the last-place teams in those divisions as the ones least likely to make the climb back to the postseason.
The arrival of Adam Gase means that the Dolphins will once again have some sort of scheme coherence instead of last year's inscrutable back-and-forth between "Lamar Miller is awesome" and "let's forget Lamar Miller exists." But except for getting great draft value by snagging the plummeting Laremy Tunsil 13th overall in the draft, Miami's offseason acquisitions look a lot like the guys they are replacing. Is Arian Foster replacing Miller a win? What about Mario Williams for Olivier Vernon? Kiko Alonso for Kelvin Sheppard? Byron Maxwell for Brent Grimes?
The other problem is that Ryan Tannehill has now been in the league for four years, and he is who he is. It's very unlikely that he suddenly rises above the level of average NFL starter. He's better than he looked through the lens of last year's inexplicable game plans -- he threw 58 passes one week and just 19 a week later -- but it's hard to see him playing much better than he did two years ago, when he ranked 16th in QBR and 17th in DVOA.
The Dolphins also have to deal with a schedule that ranks fourth in the NFL. Sure, they get the Patriots once without Tom Brady, but the whole AFC East has to face the NFC West and AFC North this season.
7. Cleveland Browns
Playoff odds: 6.8 percent (31st)
There's a big gap in playoff odds between the top 30 teams and our last two. The Browns won't come right out and say it, but they're essentially punting the season. It's a perfectly reasonable decision, given the state of their roster. Most of the veterans are gone, except for Joe Haden, who has been hurt, and Joe Thomas, who will probably still be great when then the Browns are done building around him. The Browns have brought in a ton of young players and will get 16 weeks of game film to help evaluate them for 2017. They can develop Corey Coleman, teach Terrelle Pryor how to be a wide receiver and try to screw Josh Gordon's head on straight. Meanwhile, Hue Jackson gets a year to try to save Robert Griffin III; otherwise, the Browns will be in fine position to make Deshaun Watson or Brad Kaaya the new face of the franchise with one of the top two picks in next year's draft.
8. San Francisco 49ers
Playoff odds: 6.7 percent (32nd)
Cleveland is actually forecast to be the worst team in the league by our DVOA projections, but it is San Francisco that has the lowest odds of making the postseason. This is what happens when a bad team plays in what is otherwise the best division in football. The 49ers have the hardest projected schedule in the league. We have Seattle and Arizona projected as the top two teams, and if both of those teams somehow stumble, the Rams have a defense good enough to sneak themselves into the postseason. Meanwhile, the 49ers will go three-and-out over and over, and they will do it really, really fast. At least there's still some talent on this defense: NaVorro Bowman will lead the league in tackles because he is still a very good player and will always be on the field.