Every year, Football Outsiders puts together a list of the NFL's best and brightest young players who have barely played.
Everybody knows that Andrew Luck and Jameis Winston are good. There's a cottage industry around the idea of hyping every draft's No. 1 quarterback as a potential superstar. This is a list of players who have a strong chance to make an impact in the NFL despite their lack of draft stock and the fact that they weren't immediate NFL starters. (Our full criteria for who's eligible for this list is at the bottom of this article.)
We have included the likes of Geno Atkins, Elvis Dumervil, Malcolm Butler, Arian Foster and Jamaal Charles in previous versions before they blew up.
Here's our ranking of the NFL's top 25 prospects for 2016.
1. David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals
412 offensive snaps, third-round pick (2015), age 24
You may remember Mr. Johnson as a major swing factor for your fantasy football league last winter. His advanced statistics certainly backed up the touchdowns: Johnson finished fourth in rushing DVOA and eighth in DYAR in his rookie season. And while he's not a dumbfoundingly obvious talent like Todd Gurley, that's the reason the Cardinals were able to get Johnson in the third round. At 6-foot-1, 224 pounds, Johnson is built to be a workhorse back. He also made outstanding plays as a receiver, finishing sixth in receiving DYAR among running backs and averaging 4.0 more yards after the catch than expected given where he caught those passes. The usual caveats about running backs apply -- high attrition, increased role-splitting -- but Johnson sure looks like a franchise running back as we enter 2016.
2. Danielle Hunter, DE, Minnesota Vikings
393 defensive snaps, third-round pick (2015), age 21
Hunter came out of LSU incredibly raw. He scored fairly low in our SackSEER forecast (which we use to project college edge rushers into the NFL) not because of his athleticism, but because of his lack of on-field production. Hunter managed just 4.5 sacks in three seasons at LSU. That dropped him to the third round, where the Vikings decided that a 252-pounder who ran a 4.57 40-yard dash at the combine might, in fact, be someone to groom. Hunter notched six sacks and a handful of hurries as a rookie, and he's coming for Brian Robison's job sooner rather than later.
3. Henry Anderson, DE, Indianapolis Colts
450 defensive snaps, third-round pick (2015), age 25
Anderson only qualifies for this list because he tore his ACL in the middle of the season. A strong run-stopping 5-technique, Anderson surprised the NFL with how much heat he was able to put on opposing QBs. He picked up 10 pressures in our charting despite playing on the interior in Indy's 3-4. His rehab from injury aside, this is as nice a player as you can hope to find in the third round. The explosion off the line is rare for an interior player.
4. Thomas Rawls, RB, Seattle Seahawks
289 offensive snaps, undrafted (2015), age 23
In his rookie campaign, Rawls led all running backs in rushing DYAR and finished second in DVOA. He did this despite Seattle's poor offensive line, following in the footsteps of his predecessor Marshawn Lynch by leading ESPN Stats & Info charting with 2.68 average yards after contact. (No other back with at least 100 carries was over 2.3.) So why isn't he our No. 1 prospect instead of Johnson? Context has a lot to say here. The Seahawks spent three picks on running backs this year. Rawls wasn't allowed to be much of a receiver as a rookie, and third-round pick C.J. Prosise would seem to fit that role better going forward. He's also a UDFA, and despite playing for a team that regularly boasts about their UDFAs, he wasn't drafted for a reason. (Actually, a lot of reasons: three felony charges, a knee injury, and an academic suspension from Central Michigan's 2014 appearance in the Bahamas Bowl.) We still really like Rawls' talent. He just has a few more knocks against him.
5. Owamagbe Odighizuwa, DE, New York Giants
127 defensive snaps, third-round pick (2015), age 24
Odighizuwa was regarded as a steal by draft pundits after he fell into New York's lap in the third round. His SackSEER score was rather pedestrian, but that's in large part because UCLA used him often as a 3-4 defensive end. Like Danielle Hunter, his production was obscured by factors outside the scope of his control. The Giants recognized this, but unlike the Vikings with Hunter, they didn't have much of a role for their third-round pick last year. Odighizuwa's talent is obvious, and that's why he's still on this list. A 4.62 40-yard dash and good jump numbers point to how explosive he is at the line of scrimmage. His short-term role is up for grabs after the Giants spent heavily to bring in Olivier Vernon and Damon Harrison this offseason.
6. Jordan Hicks, LB, Philadelphia Eagles
450 defensive snaps, third-round pick (2015), age 24
As with Henry Anderson's knee, Hicks' season-ending pectoral injury preserved his eligibility for this list. Hicks played an immediate role for the Eagles, with the highest run-stop rate among all linebackers on the team last year. Going forward, he projects as a true three-down linebacker. The only question: Can he stay on the field? Hicks lost two seasons at Texas to hip problems and an Achilles injury. This is starting to become a trend, and it's the reason he's a bit lower on this list even though he has top-five talent.
7. Brett Hundley, QB, Green Bay Packers
0 snaps, fifth-round pick (2015), age 23
Hundley fell to the Packers in the draft because he wasn't really asked to do much for UCLA. Jim Mora's scheme didn't let him audible, and the offensive line made Hundley's job hell. Despite all that, Hundley fits the new mold of NFL's infatuation with a dual-threat quarterback who can actually pass. Hundley tore up the preseason, completing 69.1 percent of his passes with seven touchdowns and only one pick. That doesn't mean he's ready to start tomorrow, but as with Tyrod Taylor last year, it's certainly proof that he has earned a real shot. Hundley won't get that shot for a bit -- this Aaron Rodgers fella is all right -- but he's our favorite quarterback prospect nobody is talking about.
8. Grady Jarrett, DT, Atlanta Falcons
267 defensive snaps, fifth-round pick (2015), age 23
Coming into the draft, Jarrett fit the Geno Atkins role of "undersized defensive tackle who blows everyone up." Then, he was ignored just like Atkins was, and the comparisons got stronger. He didn't play much in Atlanta until the last month of the season, but he played well enough to draw a lot of praise from his coaching staff this offseason. The Falcons want to try him at nose tackle, which is an odd projection for someone who measures in at 304 pounds in today's NFL, but Jarrett may just be good enough in the trenches to pull it off.
9. Daryl Williams, OT, Carolina Panthers
58 offensive snaps, fourth-round pick (2015), age 24
A trade-up target for Panthers general manager Dave Gettleman, Williams played extremely well in the preseason even though Carolina handed the starting right tackle job to Mike Remmers. Williams has done nothing in his limited sample size to show himself as unworthy of starting. The future may not be here tomorrow, but someday soon, he'll be anchoring one of Cam Newton's sides.
10. Chris Conley, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
369 offensive snaps, third-round pick (2015), age 23
Conley was a true workout warrior, blowing up the combine with a 4.35 40-yard dash time and off-the-charts broad and vertical jumps. Playing mostly behind Albert Wilson in his rookie year, Conley finished 16th in DVOA among all receivers with 10-49 targets, and he has the size (6-foot-3) to be an NFL outside receiver. The Kansas City depth chart at receiver looks wide open after Jeremy Maclin. Conley has come a long way in a few seasons: He didn't start until he was a junior at Georgia, and if he continues to improve his game, we might see him as an actual threat to stretch the field. Or whatever kind of threat a receiver like that can be with Alex Smith as his quarterback.
11. JC Tretter, OL, Green Bay Packers
431 offensive snaps, fourth-round pick (2014), age 25
Another embarrassment of riches on the Green Bay depth chart. Tretter came in cold off the bench against Washington in the playoffs, shifted to left tackle to replace David Bakhtiari, and helped hold the Skins to just one sack. He's an interior lineman by trade, but with the line as strong as it is today, it's hard to see an open spot for him -- at least until the annual Bryan Bulaga injury, anyway.
12. Clive Walford, TE, Oakland Raiders
439 offensive snaps, third-round pick (2015), age 24
Walford came out of Miami as a pure power player. He's a good blocker who hits with force, and he's a good straight-line runner who can catch the ball in tight traffic. He started to eat more and more into Mychal Rivera's snaps as the season went along, and should be the starter in Oakland this season. We have our doubts that Walford is going to become an actual pass-catching tight end you want to target in fantasy football, but developing into the poor man's Dwayne Allen might be in the cards.
13. Sammie Coates, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
34 offensive snaps, third-round pick (2015), age 23
Coates, like Conley, is a pure physical projection. He has an ideal frame (6-foot-1, 212 pounds), along with decent wheels (4.43) and awesome broad (131 inches) and vertical jump (41 inches). He was also one of Playmaker Score's favorite receivers of the 2015 draft, with an asterisk: He was a high-volume receiver in a run-heavy Auburn offense, which has been one of Playmaker's blind spots. Coates wasn't exactly an immediate fit in Pittsburgh, disappointing coaches with poor conditioning and difficulty picking up the playbook. He has been talked up a lot more this preseason, and many reporters who cover the Steelers feel he has finally earned the confidence of the coaches. We're not entirely sure what side to believe, but when you see Darrius Heyward-Bey and Markus Wheaton as the only obstacles in Coates' way of becoming the next Martavis Bryant, the upside is pretty tantalizing.
14. Quandre Diggs, CB, Detroit Lions
471 defensive snaps, sixth-round pick (2015), age 23
Diggs had a 56 percent success rate on 38 targets last season, and allowed just 8.5 yards per pass. While his size (5-foot-9, 197 pounds) and arm length (29 5/8 inches) are sure signs that most teams would never put him outside, ace slot cornerbacks are pretty valuable in today's NFL. But in the 10 years we've been doing this, we have seen our share of one-year-wonder slot cornerbacks, so we resisted putting Diggs inside the top 10.
15. Tevin Coleman, RB, Atlanta Falcons
226 offensive snaps, third-round pick (2015), age 23
Coleman spent much of his rookie season either injured or fighting for carries. Devonta Freeman seized the starting job when Coleman missed two early games with a fractured rib, and all the college bugaboos about him came true. He wasn't great running zone plays, he ran high at times, and he didn't exactly seize his chance when Freeman was out with a concussion in the middle of the season. While Coleman's raw speed and upside merits a slot on this list, he's a low-floor player who has a good running back ahead of him on the depth chart.
16. Eli Harold, OLB, San Francisco 49ers
337 defensive snaps, third-round pick (2015), age 22
Unlike Coleman, Harold has a high floor. With the fourth-highest SackSEER projection for the 2015 class, there was plenty of reason to expect him to be a steady, valuable edge rusher. But he was stuck behind Ahmad Brooks last year and didn't play much. Will that change in 2016? It depends on how high the new coaching staff is on Brooks. In the meantime, Harold will get an opportunity to shine right away with Aaron Lynch's four-game suspension opening up a spot in the starting lineup.
17. Jay Ajayi, RB, Miami Dolphins
158 offensive snaps, fifth-round pick (2015), age 23
Ajayi was a favorite among draft pundits last year before a lack of cartilage in his knee scared off teams, causing Ajayi to free fall into the fifth round. The Dolphins siphoned some carries away from a productive Lamar Miller to Ajayi down the stretch. Even if you look at Ajayi's knee as something that could end his career at any moment, he's still a back with enough burst to be productive. With Arian Foster in town and Kenyan Drake a highly-drafted contender to play on passing downs, Ajayi's fantasy value for this year has taken a hit. But as long as he stays healthy, he's still the runner in this backfield we believe in most.
18. P.J. Williams, CB, New Orleans Saints
0 defensive snaps, third-round pick (2015), age 23
Williams has a lot of strikes against him as a prospect. His timed speed at the combine wasn't that fast (4.57). His college career was very inconsistent, with Williams giving up a lot of space at times and showing poor tackling. On the other hand, he's the only guy on this list who has the skill set to be an outside NFL corner tomorrow. He reads the quarterback well, and his gambling mentality can also create a lot of turnovers. And he's definitely going to get an opportunity in New Orleans, where the depth chart after Delvin Breaux is not good. This is a high-risk, high-reward pick.
19. Kevin Pierre-Louis, LB, Seattle Seahawks
184 defensive snaps, fourth-round pick (2014), age 24
Pierre-Louis has all the traits you want in a three-down linebacker. He ran a 4.51 40-yard dash at the combine, his 4.02 short shuttle was one of the best times in his class and he shined in coverage at Boston College. The downside is that, at 6-foot, 232 pounds, he doesn't fit the size prototype of a linebacker. However, those standards have been changing for a long time now, since the days of Jimmy Johnson and Derrick Brooks, and we think Pierre-Louis can play. The Seahawks may not need him to, since they have Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright, but it's nice to have a player this talented waiting in reserve.
20. Rashad Greene, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
168 offensive snaps, fifth-round pick (2015), age 23
Greene was Jameis Winston's security blanket at Florida State, catching balls in tight coverage and getting vertical with ease against college corners. At 5-foot-11, 182 pounds, it's hard to project Greene as an outside receiver. But he definitely has a chance as a shifty slot receiver. The Jaguars haven't seen much from Marqise Lee yet, and Blake Bortles could use another reliable target over the middle. Greene will have to improve on last season's 53 percent catch rate to be that target.
21. Davis Tull, DE, New Orleans Saints
0 defensive snaps, fifth-round pick (2015), age 24
Tull came into the league with a frightening combination of college production and agility. At the combine, he recorded vertical and broad jumps of 42.5 inches and 11 feet, respectively, and he added a 4.57-second 40-yard dash at his pro day. Late-round picks from small schools (in this case, Chattanooga) have a decent success rate as edge rushers, including players such as Robert Mathis and Jared Allen. We haven't seen much to indicate that Tull is going to have a real role with the Saints this year, but with Hau'oli Kikaha out for the season with a torn ACL, they have a dire need for pass-rushing help next to Cameron Jordan on the outside. Tull could be that player.
22. Kenny Bell, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
0 offensive snaps, fifth-round pick (2015), age 24
The Bucs wasted a lot of wide receiver snaps on practice squad-quality players last year and didn't do much to upgrade the position this offseason. Enter Bell, a tough Nebraska receiver who missed all last season with a hamstring issue. Bell has tweener size for an outside guy (6-foot-1, 197 pounds), but he plays bigger, offers good explosion off the line, and won early in the down with his technique against press coverage in college. How that projects in Tampa is still up for interpretation, but with only an aging Vincent Jackson in front of him for the No. 2 job, Bell could rise quickly if he impresses.
23. AJ McCarron, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
257 offensive snaps, fifth-round pick (2014), age 25
Forced into work after Andy Dalton's season-ending injury, McCarron wasn't half bad in a limited sample, posting a 6.9 percent DVOA in 132 dropbacks. The caveats: 1) This was a Bengals offense absolutely stacked with talent and 2) All Cincy asked McCarron to do was be a caretaker for the offense. We don't think McCarron is going to be a star, but he could absolutely hang around the league for 12 more years as one of the 25-35 best quarterbacks in the league.
24. J.J. Nelson, WR, Arizona Cardinals
137 offensive snaps, fifth-round pick (2015), age 24
Last year, Nelson was a situational speedster, the guy that rocketed through the middle of the defense to catch Carson Palmer bombs. This is the sort of skill set that, in a good offense, leads to 23.7 yards per reception. Nelson's future in the league is harder to forecast. He's tiny enough (listed 5-foot-10, 160 pounds) that it's hard to buy him as an outside receiver. He came out of UAB with almost zero ability to make tacklers miss. Head coach Bruce Arians is big on the receiver's future, calling him "unique" at tracking the ball over his shoulder. It's possible that Arians sees similarities to a player the Colts drafted while he was in Indy: T.Y. Hilton. For the near future, Nelson is behind three great receivers on the depth chart. To become more, he'll need to show more ability to deal with the physical grind of the league. He'll also need to get better after the catch -- he gained more than three yards after the catch on just two of his receptions.
25. Quinton Dunbar, CB, Washington Redskins
257 defensive snaps, undrafted (2015), age 24
Dunbar, an undrafted free agent out of Florida, converted from wideout to cornerback for Washington after they noticed how good he was jamming gunners on punt coverage. Dunbar combines modern corner size (6-foot-2, 201 pounds) with wideout speed, and impressed down the stretch for the Skins as they made their playoff push. Dunbar allowed just 5.7 adjusted yards per pass in limited time, and now he's had a full offseason to work on the fundamentals of a position he never played before last season. Washington just might have found something here.
Honorable Mention
DT Carl Davis, Ravens
C/G Max Garcia, Broncos
FS Clayton Geathers, Colts
WR Jeff Janis, Packers
RB Matt Jones, Washington
RB Jeremy Langford, Bears
OLB Shaq Riddick, Cardinals
WR Eric Rogers, 49ers
RB Karlos Williams, Bills
Methodology
This is the 10th anniversary of the list. We're still relying on the same things we always do: scouting, statistics, measurables, context, expected role and what we hear from other sources. The goal is still to bring your attention to players who are still developing in their second and third seasons, even after the draftniks have forgotten them. We have made one change to freshen up the list this year, and that's to determine eligibility based on snap counts rather than games started. It's something we couldn't have done when the list was first launched, but with the increased usage of nickel defenses over the last few seasons, it didn't make sense to keep counting slot cornerbacks as prospects just because they don't start many games.
Here's our full criteria:
Drafted in the third round or later, or signed as an undrafted free agent
Entered the NFL between 2013 and 2015
Fewer than 500 career offensive or defensive snaps
Have not signed a contract extension (players who have bounced around the league looking for the right spot, however, still qualify for the list)
Age 26 or younger in 2016
You'll see a number of references to Football Outsiders stats on our list, in particular DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), which takes every play and compares its success to the NFL average based on situation and opponent, and DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement), which gives total value by comparing efficiency on each play to a replacement-level player. You can read more about those and other FO stats on this page.