The Los Angeles Rams will mark their first season back in California with one of the more memorable trades in recent NFL history, one that will define the franchise for years to come.
Acquiring the No. 1 pick in the 2016 draft from the Tennessee Titans looks like a desperation move. It is a desperation move. It is a home run for the Titans and a risky swing for the fences by a Rams leadership group running out of innings. That doesn't necessarily make it a terrible move for the Rams. I'd much rather be on the Titans' end of the equation, but I get the Rams' thinking.
The Rams have used a league-high 17 draft choices in the first three rounds since hiring Jeff Fisher as their head coach in 2012. They know that team building is about using a high number of picks over several seasons, thereby improving the chances of finding talented players. The Rams used those and other selections to stock their roster with young talent. They made many of those selections under the assumption Sam Bradford would be their franchise player for years to come.
The Rams were wrong on Bradford. They've been a talented, young team without a quarterback, and they've floundered as a result. They have been stuck between 6-10 and 7-8-1 during their four seasons under Fisher. They meekly committed to Case Keenum as their likely starter heading into training camp, but there was no way they could feel great about any of their current quarterbacks for the long term.
The Rams will now most likely use the top pick for Jared Goff or Carson Wentz. They gave up the 15th, 43rd, 45th and 76th picks in this draft, plus their first- and third-rounders in 2017. For the Titans, who already have Marcus Mariota on their roster, the move marks a sensational coup. They are now set up to build their team the way the Rams have built theirs, and if they are right on Mariota, they won't be in the position Los Angeles finds itself currently.
"[The Rams] are going to fix the quarterback situation, but the Wentzes and Goffs of this draft are all three-year projects," said a veteran NFL coach who has studied the draft-eligible quarterbacks this year. "These quarterbacks are going to start playing well in three years, like Kirk Cousins did. The Rams are not getting Andrew Luck. These guys will not be dynamic to start. They are going all-in, so Fisher plugs along for another 32 games."
As part of the deal, the Rams did pick up fourth- and sixth-round picks in the 2016 draft. They now have five picks this year, tied with Atlanta for the fewest in the league. They hold the first, 110th, 113th, 177th and 190th choices. They are all-in on a quarterback in this draft, even though many analysts do not see a great prospect at the position this year. Tennessee comes away with nine picks in this draft, including six in the first three rounds.
Volume is the key to winning the draft. Some of the teams with the worst rosters are also the teams that have drafted the fewest players over the past five years (Atlanta, Indianapolis, San Diego, Chicago and New Orleans among them). Some of the teams with the strongest rosters are also the teams that drafted the most players over that time (Minnesota, Seattle, Green Bay, Cincinnati and New England among them). There are always exceptions. San Francisco is struggling after drafting a league-high 50 players over the past five years. Carolina is coming off a Super Bowl season after tying the Saints and Bears with a league-low 31 selections over the same span.
"For the Rams, it comes down to whether they have the running game and defense good enough to win with a young quarterback," another coach said. "I do not know how great their defense is going to be. I do know they can beat Seattle, and they have had some success against Arizona. They have the back [Todd Gurley], who must stay healthy. It will come down to how good their defense really is and whether they have the offensive line they think they have. Because the quarterback they are drafting does not look like an Andrew Luck or a Russell Wilson."
This is undeniably a great trade for the Titans. It's a riskier proposition for the Rams, which is why one analytics director texted to say the team was "crazy" for thinking one of the quarterbacks in this draft can be a transformative player. But the fact is, the Rams have not had a viable quarterback on their roster, and they've paid a steep price for that deficiency. They now have another shot at a top young quarterback, and if they hit on one in this draft, they are banking that few will quibble with the price. It's a risky gambit in an era where teams with good quarterbacks -- think Matt Ryan in Atlanta or Drew Brees in New Orleans -- can be bad enough throughout their rosters to lose anyway.