WITH A MONTH to go before the 2023 NFL regular season ends and a number of teams begin searching for new coaches, one potential opening looms as more historic and significant than all the others.
I'm talking, of course, about the New England Patriots. They last changed head coaches 24 years ago, when they moved on from Pete Carroll and replaced him with Bill Belichick, who went on to rewrite NFL history.
Belichick has won a record six Super Bowl titles as coach of the Patriots, dominating the salary cap era in unprecedented ways. After going 5-11 in his first season in New England, Belichick went 11-5 in Year 2 and won the Super Bowl after Tom Brady replaced an injured Drew Bledsoe at quarterback. From 2001 to 2019 -- Brady's final season in New England -- the Patriots averaged 12.2 regular-season wins and went 30-11 in the postseason, including 6-3 in Super Bowls.
But since Brady left, the 71-year-old Belichick hasn't been able to make it work. The Patriots went 25-25 in the first three years post-Brady, playing only one playoff game (and losing by 30) in that span. This season, the Pats are 3-10 after Thursday night's win against the Steelers -- tied for second-worst in the NFL behind the Panthers, who fired coach Frank Reich two weeks ago.
Unproductive drafts, questionable staffing decisions and the failure to develop 2021 first-round pick Mac Jones into a franchise quarterback are among the factors that have contributed to the worst Patriots season in more than two decades. And whether it's team owner Robert Kraft's decision to move on, Belichick's decision to step away or a mutual decision between the two parties, there is a growing belief around the NFL that someone besides Belichick will be coaching the team in 2024.
THIS IS NO easy task for Kraft. Belichick is not only the coach but also the general manager. He has, since his hiring, been the final decision-maker on the team's football moves in free agency, the draft and the trade market. Replacing him would likely require Kraft to make two major hires: a coach and a GM.
It would also require some finesse in terms of presenting Belichick's departure publicly. I was covering the Dolphins when they moved on from Don Shula, the Yankees when they moved on from Joe Torre and the Giants when they moved on from Tom Coughlin. In each of those cases, the decision was not announced as a "firing." Each of those individuals had accomplished too much and made himself too significant a part of franchise history for the team to simply "fire" him.
And in each of the three cases, it was clear the decision was the team's choice and that the coach/manager disagreed with it -- Coughlin famously brushed past Giants co-owner John Mara without shaking his hand after he was done with his news conference, and Torre held a private news conference arranged by his own people away from Yankee Stadium -- but each announcement was accompanied by at least some attempt by the team to honor the man's accomplishments rather than just unceremoniously boot him out the door.
This is my expectation for what happens at the end of the season in New England, based on multiple conversations with people in and around the building. Make no mistake: It's ugly there right now. People I've spoken to with the organization paint a miserable picture. The Patriots haven't just been losing -- they have generally been non-competitive on offense. They're averaging 12.8 offensive points per game. In their three games before Thursday night's 21-18 win, they had held their opponents to 10 or fewer points -- and lost all three. And before last Thursday's much-needed win in Pittsburgh, sources in New England were describing the atmosphere as "glum" and "depressing."
After Week 13's 6-0 loss to the Chargers, and with the next game scheduled for four days later, Belichick held 8 p.m. staff meetings at the team's offices.
"Imagine how hard it is to motivate a defense to play after giving up six points and losing," one source with longtime knowledge of the Patriots' organization said.
It didn't always look this bad. In Jones' rookie season, the Patriots went 10-7 and made the playoffs. There was reason to believe they might be able to transition from Brady to the next franchise QB. But then Josh McDaniels left to take the ill-fated Raiders coach job, and Belichick made the widely panned decision not to hire a new offensive coordinator to replace him. Instead, he placed defensive coach Matt Patricia in charge of the offense and longtime special teams guru Joe Judge in charge of working with the quarterbacks.
It did not work.
Belichick had put Patricia, Judge, Jones and the rest of the players on offense in a nearly impossible spot. The results included Jones' regression, an 8-9 record and further changes this past offseason. Former Patriots OC and Texans coach Bill O'Brien was brought back in to run the offense; Patricia left the organization and took a job with the Eagles' defensive coaching staff, while Judge remains with the team in a different role. Jones, meanwhile, has since been demoted to a backup role behind second-year QB Bailey Zappe, who threw three touchdown passes on Thursday but has a 27.2 QBR on the season.
THE FRUSTRATION OVER the quarterback play has helped define this disastrous Patriots season. According to team sources, there were times early in the season when the coaching staff thought Jones was showing improvement in key areas, but it did not last. There were also times in the middle part of the season when the Patriots hoped Zappe would show enough in practice to take the starting job from Jones outright, but he did not. And there was a brief time when the coaching staff thought undrafted rookie Malik Cunningham (now with Baltimore) would present himself as an option under center, at least as someone they could use in specific packages. That didn't happen either.
Belichick benched Jones in the fourth quarter of a 10-6 loss in Week 10 to the Colts. When the team came back from its Week 11 bye, Belichick let Jones take the first-team reps in practice all week even as he repeatedly said he had "told every player to be ready to play." Jones started the Week 12 game against the Giants, but Belichick benched him at halftime and replaced him with Zappe. The Patriots lost that game 10-7. Zappe was not an improvement, throwing a pick and averaging 3.9 yards per attempt, but things had reached a breaking point between the team and Jones.
"I think at this point, there's a sense that it just couldn't be worse," a team source said at the time.
Zappe started again in Week 13, and the Pats were shut out by a Chargers team that had been allowing an average of 23.5 points per game. He threw for 240 yards against Pittsburgh in Week 14, leading one team source to tell me the next day, "The offense plays with more energy for him." But Kansas City's elite pass defense is on deck in Week 15, which makes the chances of carryover from the feel-good win a bit slim.
BELICHICK LOOKS INCREASINGLY like a coach with no answers. The Patriots appear destined for a very high pick -- possibly the No. 1 pick -- in next year's quarterback-rich draft. There doesn't appear to be any chance they pick up Jones' fifth-year option for 2025, and they are one of the most likely teams to draft a quarterback in April. The question, then, becomes: Who gets to make that pick?
The answer in New England has been Belichick for seemingly forever. But the Patriots' roster reflects a struggling decision-maker. Recent early-round whiffs on players such as receiver Tyquan Thornton (Round 2 in 2022), receiver N'Keal Harry (Round 1 in 2019), running back Sony Michel (Round 1 in 2018) and lineman Isaiah Wynn (Round 1 in 2018) have left the offense bereft of playmakers. Overpaying for middling receivers like Nelson Agholor didn't help, and a trade for DeVante Parker still left the team looking for a WR1. Letting valuable wideout Jakobi Meyers leave to sign with the Raiders in the 2023 offseason made the issue worse. And the offensive line isn't what it used to be. The defense is holding up its end of the bargain lately, but it can't do everything.
The defense's performance could end up strengthening the case of linebackers coach and de facto defensive coordinator Jerod Mayo as the presumed successor to Belichick, though. Sources close to the Patriots believe Kraft's plan entering this season was for Belichick to coach two more seasons and have Mayo take over in 2025. Belichick entered the season needing 18 wins to catch Shula for most career victories (regular season and postseason combined) among NFL coaches, and the thought was he could get that done in two seasons.
Entering Week 15, though, Belichick remains 15 wins behind Shula and the Patriots' roster issues make it difficult to imagine him getting there anytime soon. The extent to which this season has gone off the rails, sources say, has Kraft rethinking everything.
Multiple sources in and around the building say Mayo taking over next year is the most likely outcome, though others are no longer certain that's the way Kraft will go. Mayo would have to sell Kraft on who will be in charge of the offense, the quarterback's development and personnel. That could all happen and work out in Mayo's favor, but it doesn't sound like it's a 100% sure thing. Tennessee coach Mike Vrabel, recently inducted into the Patriots Hall of Fame for his contributions as a player, is among the other names mentioned in league circles as a potential candidate to succeed Belichick, though there's no indication a split between him and the Titans is imminent. NFL rules require a full search with multiple interviews, and no one should assume any succession plans that were in place a year ago remain.
Even once the coaching question is settled, there is the issue of who the GM will be. Kraft might end up having to conduct two searches simultaneously, and that means the process could take time and involve unforeseen twists and turns.
THERE IS ALSO the question of what happens next with Belichick.
His contract has always been a difficult one to get details on -- there's even a longtime belief that it includes a clause requiring him to be the league's highest-paid coach -- but to the best of our knowledge it does not expire at the end of this season. That would enable the Patriots to trade his rights to another interested team for a draft pick(s), the way the Saints did in January when the Broncos wanted to hire Sean Payton. Denver gave the Saints its 2023 first-round pick and 2024 second-round pick for Payton and the Saints' 2024 third-round pick. That could potentially be a framework for the return the Pats could expect to get in a potential Belichick trade, though obviously that depends on the level of interest another team has in bringing him in. (It's also worth noting that Belichick has been traded before. When he left the Jets for the Patriots in 2000, New England sent the Jets a first-round pick plus future fourth- and seventh-rounders for Belichick, the Jets' 2001 fifth-rounder and their 2002 seventh-rounder.)
For the trade possibility to come into play this time around, Belichick would have to have a desire to continue coaching and agree to any proposed deal. Assuming he does want to match or break that Shula record, and assuming Kraft decides he doesn't have the patience to wait for him to reach it with the Patriots, Belichick would have to find another place to pick up those 15 wins. And another franchise would have to want to hire the league's second-oldest coach (behind Carroll), who has had a losing record in three of the past four seasons. While there is plenty of speculation around the league about the possibility of Belichick landing with the Commanders, Bears or Chargers, should those jobs come open, there's a very real possibility he doesn't turn out to be the hot candidate his name and accomplishments might lead you to assume.
In the meantime, by all accounts, Belichick retains his legendary week-to-week focus. People who are in the building every day say he hasn't talked about what happens after this season, what he thinks Kraft might do or what he thinks he might want to do if Kraft moves on. Belichick famously keeps everything close to the vest. Heck, he just went two weeks without telling any of his players or coaches who he was planning to start at quarterback in their next game. Belichick has long preached the mantra of the next game being the focus, and he continues to practice what he preaches, even amid the misery of his worst season.
In a few weeks, though, there won't be any more games on deck. The 2023 regular season will end, likely with the worst record Belichick has ever posted in his head-coaching career. And he and the Patriots will be confronting some complex and difficult decisions about what to do next. It's a time of great uncertainty for a man and a franchise that spent two decades as the picture of constancy in an unpredictable league. But at this point, there are growing indications that the greatest coaching run in NFL history is about to come to an end.