Expectations are always high for all 32 NFL teams at this point in the year, but a lot can impact a season over 17 games. There will always be surprises, and 2021 will be no different.
To look at the bigger picture and just how good -- or bad -- every team could be this season, we turned to our ESPN Football Power Index (FPI). FPI gives us projected win totals for every team based on 20,000 simulations of the entire season performed by our ESPN Stats & Information team, but to find a high and low, we picked out the middle 90% of those simulations. That gave us a ceiling and a floor in terms of expected record for each team in 2021, and extremely unlikely outliers were eliminated. In other words, we identified the realistic best case and worst case for every team.
So what can we expect for each NFL team this season? If everything goes right, what might each team's record be? And if the worst scenario plays out, what would all 32 teams' records look like? We pulled those FPI ceilings and floors, and then we asked our NFL Nation reporters to explain what will determine where each team falls within that win-total spectrum -- the biggest factor in each team hitting the high or low end of the range.
Jump to:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills
Ceiling: 13-4 | Floor: 8-9
Biggest variable: Something went drastically wrong if the Bills win only eight games this season. If the defense continues to decline after a down year in 2020 (at least by their recent standards), the Bills could become overly reliant on quarterback Josh Allen and the offense to keep them in games. But even in that scenario, Buffalo's offense should be good enough to keep the reigning AFC East champion from hitting the eight-win floor. And if the defense reverts to its 2019 form, the rest of the conference better hope the Bills win only 13 games. Because if you can't score or keep them from scoring, you're in for a long day in western New York. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques
Miami Dolphins
Ceiling: 12-5 | Floor: 7-10
Biggest variable: Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is arguably the biggest catalyst in the Dolphins' success this season. If he plays well, Miami's defense and playmakers are good enough to hit that 12-win mark and contend for the AFC East. If Tagovailoa struggles, or if the offensive line fails to improve in front of him, it puts even more pressure on Miami to take the ball away at a high rate (29 turnovers in 2020, first in NFL). But in a loaded conference, there simply isn't much room for mediocre play if the Dolphins want to make their first postseason under Brian Flores; Tagovailoa and this offensive line have to be better than they were last season. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques
New England Patriots
Ceiling: 12-5 | Floor: 7-10
Biggest variable: Mac Jones' growth seems like the big one, especially after the Patriots cut Cam Newton and named Jones the starting QB this week. How Jones grows into the job will most determine the Patriots' success. One thing that should help: He is surrounded by a more complete team than the Patriots had in 2020. -- Mike Reiss
New York Jets
Ceiling: 9-8 | Floor: 4-13
Biggest variable: It seems like a trend for most of these AFC East teams, but the biggest variable for the Jets lies with the quarterback. How quickly Zach Wilson adapts to the pro game will determine whether the Jets finish near the bottom of the league -- again -- or surprise everyone by cracking .500. He absolutely has the arm talent to be an instant success, but can he handle sophisticated coverages? Can his body withstand the weekly pounding? If Wilson brings stability to the position, the Jets will overachieve, though they have a low bar. Only once in the past 14 years has their starting QB exceeded the league average in Total QBR (Ryan Fitzpatrick, 2015). -- Rich Cimini
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens
Ceiling: 13-4 | Floor: 8-9
Biggest variable: Can the Ravens overcome the season-ending injury to running back J.K. Dobbins? Baltimore has been nearly unstoppable when it gets the ground game rolling, and it is 16-2 (.889) over the past two seasons when gaining over 180 rushing yards. But when held under that mark, Baltimore is 9-5 (.642). It's a favorable schedule for the Ravens, who play 12 games against run defenses that ranked in the bottom half of the NFL, but Gus Edwards and Ty'Son Williams have to show they can fill the void left by Dobbins, who was primed for a breakout season. -- Jamison Hensley
Cincinnati Bengals
Ceiling: 10-7 | Floor: 4-13
Biggest variable: Cincinnati's hopes -- and perhaps the fate of coach Zac Taylor -- will hinge on the passing offense. QB Joe Burrow will need to continue his development and build on a strong rookie year. The offensive line must keep Burrow upright and make him comfortable in the pocket. And the receiving trio of Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase needs to live up to the offseason hype. If everything comes together, the Bengals could be in the mix for a playoff berth in December. -- Ben Baby
Cleveland Browns
Ceiling: 12-5 | Floor: 8-9
Biggest variable: Whether the Baker Mayfield-Odell Beckham Jr. connection finally comes together will impact Cleveland's ceiling. Whether a revamped defense can jell around several new faces will determine Cleveland's floor. The Browns showed last year they can win without OBJ -- but to become a legit Super Bowl contender, they need a playmaker of Beckham's talent. Defensively, Cleveland was a mess at times in 2020, and if the notable additions of pass-rusher Jadeveon Clowney and safety John Johnson III stabilize the defense, the Browns should win their first division title since 1989. -- Jake Trotter
Pittsburgh Steelers
Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11
Biggest variable: It all comes down to the offensive line. If the group jells quickly -- despite limited snaps in the preseason together -- and keeps QB Ben Roethlisberger upright while creating space for first-round running back Najee Harris to be effective, then the Steelers will trend more toward their ceiling. But if the young group can't overcome lingering injuries or be more physical than last year's subpar group, then a losing season isn't off the table. A six-win season in Pittsburgh would be an unmitigated disaster for the Steelers; Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season as head coach. -- Brooke Pryor
AFC SOUTH
Houston Texans
Ceiling: 7-10 | Floor: 3-14
Biggest variable: Does new coach David Culley have the ability to turn this team -- which is expected more to have a top-five pick in the draft than make the playoffs -- into a group that rallies together and is able to rebound from a four-win season? It will be a tough task for the Texans to get to seven wins, especially without QB Deshaun Watson, and much will depend on whether this new roster built with a mindset of rebuilding the culture can actually work right away. -- Sarah Barshop
Indianapolis Colts
Ceiling: 12-5 | Floor: 7-10
Biggest variable: Can quarterback Carson Wentz stay healthy? He had surgery on his left foot on Aug. 2 and is hopeful to be ready for Week 1 against Seattle, and his availability throughout the year will heavily impact whether the Colts are a double-win playoff team or end up missing the postseason for the fifth time in the past seven seasons. And if Wentz can't stay healthy, the Colts might have to reconsider their long-term status at QB, too. -- Mike Wells
Jacksonville Jaguars
Ceiling: 9-8 | Floor: 4-13
Biggest variable: The offensive line is a big issue, especially at offensive tackle, but coming up with some kind of a pass rush is the swing factor here. Josh Allen is the Jaguars' most accomplished pass-rusher (13 sacks over 24 career games), but Dawuane Smoot (11.5 sacks over four seasons) is next on the list. Defensive coordinator Joe Cullen has to be aggressive with blitzes to manufacture pressure, but that carries risk: If you don't get home, the secondary is vulnerable. The Jaguars had just 18 sacks last season, second worst in the NFL and ahead of only Cincinnati (17). They'll at least have to double that total. -- Michael DiRocco
Tennessee Titans
Ceiling: 12-5 | Floor: 7-10
Biggest variable: This one comes down to the defense. It's a pretty safe assumption that Tennessee's offense will deliver, but the defense has to show improvement on third down and in the red zone. These areas will get better if the pass rush can get home and the secondary can challenge receivers more. A stingy defense matched with what should be a highly productive offense is the perfect formula for a 12-win season. -- Turron Davenport
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos
Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11
Biggest variable: Can the defense be dominant? Defensive end Shelby Harris has openly said the group's goal is to be the "No. 1'' defense in the league, and while the Broncos didn't face a starting quarterback in any of their three preseason games, the first-, second- and third-teamers all did not surrender a touchdown in any of them. The bottom line is they have to avoid the long list of injuries they had last season, and Von Miller and Bradley Chubb have to be on the field together for at least 15 of the team's 17 games. -- Jeff Legwold
Kansas City Chiefs
Ceiling: 14-3 | Floor: 9-8
Biggest variable: The success or failure of the offseason's offensive line rebuild has the potential to swing the Chiefs' season one way or another. The Super Bowl loss to the Bucs showed what the Chiefs look like when they are overwhelmed up front, so if they didn't make the right personnel choices during the offseason, this has the potential to get ugly again. But if those decisions work out like they hope, QB Patrick Mahomes and the offense should be humming -- and the Chiefs could well finish the regular season with the most wins in the league. -- Adam Teicher
Las Vegas Raiders
Ceiling: 10-7 | Floor: 5-12
Biggest variable: The play of the revamped offensive line will be a determining factor here. QB Derek Carr -- who has improved in each of his seasons in Jon Gruden's system -- has weapons galore, but none of it matters if the O-line can't protect him. Stalwart center Rodney Hudson, road grader right guard Gabe Jackson and maddening right tackle Trent Brown were among the departures. New pieces include center Andre James, right guard Denzelle Good and rookie right tackle Alex Leatherwood, and if that group is solid, so too should be the Raiders' record. Otherwise, avert ye eyes, Raider Nation. -- Paul Gutierrez
Los Angeles Chargers
Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11
Biggest variable: The Chargers' defense is tough to figure out, but that's the way it was designed by coach Brandon Staley. And safety Derwin James Jr. is back and at the center of it. He is healthy after missing all of 2020, will be a dynamic impact player on D and is relaying the plays from the sideline. But is he a safety? A corner? A linebacker? He brings a different feel to the Chargers' defense, and his play -- and health -- could be a big decider in whether Los Angeles is a very good team or has another losing season. -- Shelley Smith
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys
Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11
Biggest variable: It has to be health. Will QB Dak Prescott make it through a full season? How about offensive linemen Tyron Smith, Zack Martin and La'el Collins? Edge rusher DeMarcus Lawrence had his third back surgery since 2015 during the offseason, and linebacker Leighton Vander Esch has missed 13 games over the past two seasons. Injuries happen on every team, but it matters who gets hurt. This is a team that is top heavy -- 10 players account for $127 million in cap space -- and it doesn't have the depth necessary to handle losing its stars for any significant amount of time. -- Todd Archer
New York Giants
Ceiling: 10-7 | Floor: 5-12
Biggest variable: If the offensive line is serviceable, QB Daniel Jones could have a breakout season, and the Giants will score points. If it's not, Jones will likely continue to turn the ball over too much, and the points will be sporadic. The problem is that the Giants have questions at four of the five spots, even with last year's No. 4 overall pick, Andrew Thomas, at left tackle. -- Jordan Raanan
Philadelphia Eagles
Ceiling: 9-8 | Floor: 4-13
Biggest variable: The youth has to deliver, particularly on offense. The Eagles have an intriguing group of young skill players, led by quarterback Jalen Hurts (23), receivers DeVonta Smith (22) and Jalen Reagor (22), and running back Miles Sanders (24). In contrast, the offensive line blocking for them features three players in their 30s in Jason Kelce (33), Brandon Brooks (32) and Lane Johnson (31). If the skill group can mature quickly, and the old guard can avoid doing so, Philadelphia will be in contention for the NFC East title. -- Tim McManus
Washington Football Team
Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 5-12
Biggest variable: A lot rides on Ryan Fitzpatrick and the team's quarterback play. Washington ranked last in Total QBR in 2020, so the bar is low. If Fitzpatrick is playing his best ball -- which he and the team are both saying -- then Washington can repeat as NFC East champ. But if he has too many FitzTragic games, then it will be difficult. The defense should be better, but it will need help from the offense. Washington bolstered its receiving corps, too, so it will come down to steady play under center. -- John Keim
NFC NORTH
Chicago Bears
Ceiling: 10-7 | Floor: 5-12
Biggest variable: The Bears' defense is talented enough to keep the team in games, but coach Matt Nagy's offense needs to make major strides behind Andy Dalton and/or Justin Fields. Maintaining the status quo on offense is unacceptable, and Nagy knows that. The Bears spent their entire offseason focused on that area and need to see a return on their investment. Another sluggish year on offense, and the Bears will be much closer to that floor of five wins. -- Jeff Dickerson
Detroit Lions
Ceiling: 8-9 | Floor: 3-14
Biggest variable: The narrative of coaching influence and front-office changes can go only so far with this new-look Lions team. Players are going to have to produce. For starters, the defense has to be much better than last season -- when it ranked at the bottom of the league. Offensively, the Lions will need the receiving corps to step up in a major way. Tyrell Williams, Kalif Raymond, Quintez Cephus and rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown will have to make some big plays as QB Jared Goff tries to revitalize his career in Motown. -- Eric Woodyard
Green Bay Packers
Ceiling: 12-5 | Floor: 7-10
Biggest variable: The Packers had one of the best offensive lines in the NFL -- if not the best -- last season, but they're starting this year without left tackle David Bakhtiari, who's still recovering from knee surgery in January. Combine that with the loss of center Corey Linsley to the Chargers in free agency, and they're down two All-Pro linemen. The Packers look poised to start two rookies on the line -- center Josh Myers (second round) is a lock, and guard Royce Newman (fourth round) could start, while Elgton Jenkins kicks out to tackle until Bakhtiari returns. -- Rob Demovsky
Minnesota Vikings
Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11
Biggest variable: Double-digit wins depend on whether the Vikings' defense can truly bounce back to its traditional form. As we saw in the preseason, the depth behind Minnesota's starters is weak, especially at linebacker and in the secondary, so the Vikings have to see a strong return on their investment in players such as Patrick Peterson, Bashaud Breeland, Dalvin Tomlinson and a host of others. If it doesn't pan out, the Vikings might be looking at that six-win floor and a lot of turnover next offseason. -- Courtney Cronin
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons
Ceiling: 10-7 | Floor: 5-12
Biggest variable: There are real questions about depth at so many places on the roster. Stay largely healthy, and 10 wins is a possibility with the top-end talent the Falcons have, especially on offense. But if injuries start piling up, particularly in the defensive front seven, it could get really difficult really fast for Atlanta in Arthur Smith's first season as a head coach. Dean Pees can be a difference-maker as a defensive coordinator in a lot of ways, but if the Falcons start running into depleted defensive options, even his genius won't be enough to help. -- Michael Rothstein
Carolina Panthers
Ceiling: 10-7 | Floor: 5-12
Biggest variable: This all starts and ends with quarterback Sam Darnold. If he plays well, there's enough talent around him for this team to hit the high mark. But if the team's new plan at the most important position doesn't work out, a third straight losing season is in the cards. Carolina finished 22nd in Total QBR last season and was 32nd in 2019; both were five-win campaigns. Simply put, QB play needs to be much better for success this season. -- David Newton
New Orleans Saints
Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11
Biggest variable: QB Jameis Winston is an obvious answer, since the Saints have a new starting quarterback for the first time in 15 years, but the biggest reason for concern in New Orleans is a thinned-out roster. The reduced salary cap forced the Saints to make some tough subtractions at cornerback, receiver and defensive tackle, among other spots. They are still loaded with star talent, but throw in surgeries for wideout Michael Thomas and kicker Wil Lutz, and a six-game suspension for defensive tackle David Onyemata, and this team can't afford many more setbacks. -- Mike Triplett
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ceiling: 13-4 | Floor: 8-9
Biggest variable: The Bucs return all 22 starters on offense and defense and lost just one assistant coach from their Super Bowl win. And now they play a much weaker schedule in 2021 (ranked 29th in strength of schedule). That bodes well for their chances to repeat and hit that ceiling. But the team must, as coach Bruce Arians put it, "beat the virus" again in one of the biggest COVID-19 hot spots in the country right now. Only four starters missed a total of six games while on the reserve/COVID-19 list, among the lowest in the league, but the Buccaneers have four players on it now. Discipline off the field will be a must. "Our guys are very, very aware of the situation and they're willing to do whatever it takes to make sure it doesn't affect our team," Arians said. -- Jenna Laine
NFC WEST
Arizona Cardinals
Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 5-12
Biggest variable: Reaching the best-case scenario of 11 wins could be relatively easy for this team if the offense figures out a way to balance itself and if defensive lineman J.J. Watt can return to form, providing pressure off the edge to offset Chandler Jones' pass rushing. However, if coach Kliff Kingsbury can't adapt when/if the offense struggles, or if the defense can't get the pressure up front, then five wins might be where this season heads. And if that happens, a major reorg could be coming. -- Josh Weinfuss
Los Angeles Rams
Ceiling: 12-5 | Floor: 7-10
Biggest variable: The Rams' defense is coming off a great season and is anchored again by three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald and All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey. But whether the Rams win 12 games or seven could depend on how well the unit adjusts to new defensive coordinator Raheem Morris and the loss of four key starters, including veteran defensive lineman Michael Brockers, safety John Johnson III, cornerback Troy Hill and outside linebacker Samson Ebukam. The development of defensive lineman A'Shawn Robinson, outside linebacker Justin Hollins, cornerback David Long Jr. and safety Taylor Rapp will be paramount. -- Lindsey Thiry
San Francisco 49ers
Ceiling: 12-5 | Floor: 7-10
Biggest variable: We saw what health means for the Niners last season, but the thing that could make or break this season is whether they can press the right buttons when it comes to their quarterback situation. It's not so much about the performance of Jimmy Garoppolo or rookie Trey Lance -- both should have the tools to produce -- as it is about managing the competition between them and not allowing it to morph into a controversy. It hasn't been a problem yet, but things can change when a loss or two hit. How coach Kyle Shanahan, the two quarterbacks and the locker room respond when that adversity inevitably comes will go a long way in determining if this team can return to contender status. -- Nick Wagoner
Seattle Seahawks
Ceiling: 12-5 | Floor: 7-10
Biggest variable: The Seahawks' biggest swing factor is how well -- and how quickly -- their offense finds its footing. It's easy to predict that the defense will excel at pressuring quarterbacks but struggle in coverage. It's not as easy to predict what kind of growing pains there may be with new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, a first-time playcaller, or how seamless the transition will be for QB Russell Wilson & Co. Waldron's system places more of an emphasis on getting the ball out quickly, which will become an even bigger priority if left tackle Duane Brown misses games amid his contract dispute. -- Brady Henderson