How much can the loss of one player mean to a team? In the case of the Tennessee Titans and Albert Haynesworth, it might just be the difference between being a playoff contender and an also-ran.
The Titans were 6-2 with Haynesworth in their starting lineup, but have since lost their last three games, all of which Haynesworth missed with a hamstring injury.
If you don't believe that a defensive tackle can make that big of a difference, consider this: During Tennessee's 6-2 start, the Titans' defense had allowed only 124 points, an average passer rating of 55.8 and only 528 rushing yards. In its 0-3 run since then, the defense has fallen apart. The Titans have allowed 97 points, 480 rushing yards and an average passer rating of 113.1.
Those totals show the overall effect of Haynesworth's loss, but let's take a look at some additional metrics to clarify what his loss has done to this defense.
The first place to start is the pass rush. Prior to Haynesworth's absence, the Titans had racked up 22 sacks in eight games, or nearly three sacks per game. Twenty of those sacks were collected by Tennessee's defensive line. In the three games since, Tennessee's defensive line has only two sacks and the defense as a whole only three sacks.
It's not just a lack of sacks, either. In the past three games, the Titans have forced the quarterback to scramble out of the pocket only four times. One of the scramble plays did result in a sack, but two other plays resulted in completions, one of which was a 48-yard touchdown pass in the Week 11 Monday night game at Denver. In addition, the lack of pressure has caused the Titans' forced bad decision percentage to plummet to a meager 2.2 over this three-game stretch.
The lack of a pass rush has affected the Titans' pass coverage. Take a look at their route depth metrics over these three games and you'll see what I mean.
These metrics tell me that the Titans are mostly sitting back in coverage to take away the bomb passes. I say this not only because of the bomb metrics but also because of the 6.3 success percentage the Titans have posted against short passes. That is a terribly low success rate, even against a high-percentage play like a short pass. To put that number in perspective, consider that Indianapolis ranked dead last in short pass success percentage in 2006 with a 19.0 rate.
This philosophy has affected Tennessee's cornerbacks as well. Nick Harper and Cortland Finnegan had been playing fairly well before the past three games, but their metrics since then have been less than stellar.
The interception in Finnegan's coverage was actually tallied by Calvin Lowry and it came as a result of a dropped pass by Cincinnati's Chris Henry. Henry would have gained 13 yards at the point of the drop, so if those yards were added back in, Finnegan's YPA would jump to 10.4.
It isn't just the cornerbacks who are suffering, either. One of the ways that Tennessee has been trying to generate a pass rush is by blitzing its nickel cornerbacks/safeties. The Titans usually have one of their deep safeties rotate up to fill the coverage hole left by the blitzer. When they do this with Michael Griffin, their talented rookie free safety, it works out OK for them. Griffin has allowed six completions in nine direct coverage passes, but has allowed only 40 yards on those passes.
When the Titans try to fill the coverage hole with Chris Hope, however, it hasn't been nearly as successful. Hope has been in direct coverage on five occasions in these games and has given up three completions for 67 yards and a touchdown. Hope's forte has never been pass coverage, and it is costing the Titans when they have to ask him to do this.
The loss of Haynesworth caused a domino effect of catastrophic proportions for this defense. The Titans' playoff lives may depend on whether Haynesworth can get and stay healthy for the rest of the season.
KC Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. His core passing metrics can be found in the ESPN Fantasy Football Magazine, which is on newsstands now. A free sample of his latest release ("Scientific Football 2007") is available at his Web site.