Attention is starting to turn to the 2024 NFL draft, so let's project Round 1 with an updated mock draft. With Michigan's dominant national title win Monday night, the 2023 college football season is over. Declaration day for underclassmen is Monday, and prospects will begin to focus on pre-draft events, including all-star games, the combine and pro days.
The 2023 NFL regular season is also complete, which means the top portion of the draft order is set. The Bears have the No. 1 pick after the Panthers dealt the selection as part of a March 2023 trade and then went 2-15. We know the order for pick Nos. 1-18, but we used ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) to project the order for the 14 playoff teams' picks, which will become final over the next month. Two of those postseason teams traded away their selections: Houston's slot will go to Arizona, and Cleveland's pick belongs to Houston.
Here are my first-round projections for April's exciting draft, including landing spots for four quarterbacks.
1. Chicago Bears (via CAR)
Caleb Williams, QB, USC
After a disappointing finish to the season, the Justin Fields era in Chicago might officially come to a close this offseason. The Bears have to decide whether they want to trade Fields or the No. 1 pick, but in the end, passing on a franchise QB for a second consecutive year -- especially when Fields hasn't done enough to cement his spot -- wouldn't be logical. General manager Ryan Poles could draft a signal-caller he can tie to his tenure.
Williams remains my QB1 and No. 2 overall prospect, with terrific arm talent, accuracy and creativity under center. The 2022 Heisman Trophy winner threw 72 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions over the past two seasons.
Team needs: QB, WR, EDGE
2. Washington Commanders
Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
With new ownership -- and soon a new coach -- the Commanders are in desperate need of a spark. Maye can be just that. With a powerful arm to make any downfield throw, he can attack all three levels of the field. This season, he completed 35 passes of 20-plus air yards, the third most in the FBS. Maye still needs to improve his decision-making and progressions, but he is commonly getting comps to Justin Herbert. That speaks to his upside. Sam Howell flashed this season, but he threw a matching 21 touchdown passes and 21 interceptions.
The Commanders already have solid offensive targets in Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson, and with four additional picks in the first three rounds, Washington could see a quick turnaround.
Team needs: QB, OL, EDGE
3. New England Patriots
Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
Stale and lacking talent. That's the only way to sum up the current state of the Patriots' roster. The QB carousel of Bailey Zappe and Mac Jones left more questions than answers, and New England has to find some form of excitement on offense. Daniels is an electrifying talent who brings downfield passing ability and rushing mobility. His improvement during his senior season was remarkable, as he finished first in the FBS in Total QBR (95.6), touchdown passes from the pocket (35) and passing yards per attempt (11.7). His 40 passing TDs ranked second, and his 10 rushing scores tied for ninth among QBs.
Team needs: QB, OT, WR
4. Arizona Cardinals
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
If we were playing a game of matchmaker, the prospect-to-team fit that makes the most sense of any first-round pick is Harrison to the Cardinals. Quarterback Kyler Murray won't hesitate to throw the ball up to his receivers in one-on-one situations, and Harrison -- my top-ranked player in this class -- is exactly what's needed on a roster that's still devoid of high-end talent. Plus, Marquise Brown is a free agent and might not be back.
Harrison's combination of hands, body control and route running make him the clear best receiver in a loaded group, and he has a chance to quickly become a top-10 target at the next level. He is coming off back-to-back seasons with 14 touchdowns and more than 1,200 yards at Ohio State.
Team needs: WR, CB, DL
5. Los Angeles Chargers
Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
The Chargers are definitely a team that could look to trade back and stock up on picks to fill roster holes with younger talent. But if they stick at No. 5, they should go with a wide receiver for the second consecutive year (Quentin Johnston in 2023). Nabers is an explosive target who would be an immediate upgrade for the team's offense. He's a natural tackle-breaker, finishing sixth in the FBS in forced missed tackles on catches (27). Nabers also led the FBS in receiving yards per game (120.7). He is a big play waiting to happen and the exact type of receiver Los Angeles needs, especially with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams getting older and struggling to stay on the field.
Team needs: WR, CB, OL
6. New York Giants
Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
This is a nightmare scenario for the Giants, with all three of the top quarterbacks and both of the top two receivers off the board. Offensive tackle could be an option here, but I don't think GM Joe Schoen is ready to throw in the towel on Evan Neal at right tackle just yet, even though the early returns haven't been promising. Plus, the top two tackles in this class have played only on the left side, where Andrew Thomas lines up for New York.
That leads me to Odunze, who dictates his own route tempos and can make catches in any situation, as evidenced by his FBS-high 1,640 receiving yards this season. He tied for the most contested receptions (24) in the country and had the third-most touchdowns (eight) in those situations. If things play out this way, it would be the first time in the common draft era that three receivers went in the top six picks, per ESPN Stats & Information data.
Team needs: QB, WR, OL
7. Tennessee Titans
Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
The Titans would be jumping for joy in this scenario. Will Levis has shown that he could possibly be the long-term quarterback answer, but Tennessee needs multiple new starters along the offensive line to protect him. The Andre Dillard signing hasn't worked out, so left tackle is a huge question mark for whoever ends up as the Titans' new coach.
Alt was the most impressive prospect I saw out on the scouting trail this season. The 6-foot-8, 320-pound player has shown continuous improvement each year of his college career, and some scouts believe Alt -- who allowed two sacks combined over the past two seasons -- is the most well-rounded blocker in this class. Penn State's Olumuyiwa Fashanu could also be the move here, but it shouldn't come as a surprise if Alt is the first offensive tackle off the board.
Team needs: OT, CB, WR
8. Atlanta Falcons
Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
It's no secret the Falcons need a quarterback. But Arthur Smith has been relieved of his coaching duties, and with pressure to win next season, I think Atlanta could go the veteran route under center. With that in mind, adding another pass-rusher makes sense, as the Falcons owned the worst pass rush win rate (30.9%) in the league. Latu has an impressive arsenal of pass-rush moves and has improved as a run defender. He was second in the FBS in pressure rate (20.1%) this season and recorded 23.5 sacks since joining UCLA in 2022.
Medical issues are the biggest question mark here. Latu was forced to sit out two seasons because of a 2020 neck injury while still at Washington. But with a clean bill of health, he would be a no-brainer top-10 pick.
Team needs: QB, EDGE, OL
9. Chicago Bears
Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
The midseason Montez Sweat trade improved the Bears' defense, but Chicago still finished 31st in sacks (30). Pairing Sweat with Turner would suddenly give Chicago an exciting young duo off the edge. Turner needs to add more pass-rush moves, but he has continued to get better each season of his career, posting a career-high 10 sacks in 2023. His 16.7% pressure rate was also eighth best in the FBS. And at 6-foot-4 and 242 pounds, Turner comes with versatility and is comfortable dropping in coverage.
Team needs: QB, WR, EDGE
10. New York Jets
Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
The Jets appear set to run it back with Aaron Rodgers, and with a 40-year-old QB coming off a torn Achilles, they will need to improve his protection. Mekhi Becton was attributed 17 sacks against this season, so there's a clear need for an upgrade at tackle. Fashanu has an impressive combination of foot quickness, balance and fluidity as a pass-protector, and he has the potential to eventually be one of the best offensive tackles in the NFL.
Team needs: OT, WR, QB
11. Minnesota Vikings
Jer'Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois
The Vikings are a prime candidate to take a QB, and I almost made that move here. But there's a good chance Kirk Cousins will return to Minnesota, giving the Vikings the chance to instead take one of the best defensive players in the draft. Outside of Danielle Hunter -- who is a free agent this offseason -- Minnesota had a severe lack of talent along its defensive front.
One of my favorite overall prospects in this class regardless of position, Newton is a disruptive 3-technique who finished the season with 42 pressures, 7.5 sacks and an 11.4% defensive pressure rate. And he simply doesn't come off the field; his 715 snaps ranked seventh among all FBS defensive linemen in 2023. Newton can play from multiple alignments, and he can be included in creative third-down packages because of his versatility and explosiveness as a pass-rusher.
Team needs: QB, IDL, EDGE
12. Denver Broncos
J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
Russell Wilson could be released before the start of the new league year, which would leave coach Sean Payton in search of a young QB to mold in his offense. The Broncos might sign an experienced veteran, but McCarthy has some traits we've seen Payton gravitate toward in the past: The Wolverines star is an instinctive and accurate passer who makes plays to win games. He has really good ball placement, hitting 72.3% of his throws this season. Scouts have mixed opinions on McCarthy -- mainly surrounding his role in Michigan's run-heavy scheme -- and he's no lock to go on Day 1, but he has the chance to be a solid NFL starter.
Team needs: QB, DL, CB
Keon Coleman gets Florida State into Syracuse territory with a miraculous one-handed catch.
13. Las Vegas Raiders
Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
The Raiders could attempt to trade up for a signal-caller, and I wouldn't be surprised if that happens. A lot hinges on whether interim coach Antonio Pierce and interim general manager Champ Kelly stick around in Las Vegas in full-time roles. But with four QBs off the board, I projected a defensive prospect here instead, especially because the Raiders need help on the perimeter. Amik Robertson is a free agent, and only three teams have fewer interceptions over the past two seasons than Las Vegas (19).
McKinstry is a technician on the outside, allowing a 32.1% completion rate on throws into his area (tied for 14th best in the FBS). He has the physicality and ball skills to be a starter right away.
Team needs: QB, EDGE, OL
14. New Orleans Saints
JC Latham, OT, Alabama
The Saints have historically shown commitment to the trenches in the early rounds, and considering that Trevor Penning hasn't lived up to his first-round billing and Ryan Ramczyk battled knee injuries this season, offensive tackle should be a high priority in New Orleans. Latham is a massive 6-foot-5, 350-pound player with power at the point of attack and good quickness. He is a dominant run-blocker, able to take away defenders quickly once he gets his hands on them. If he lands in a scheme that prioritizes downhill running, Latham has the potential to be a reliable starter.
Team needs: OT, EDGE, WR
15. Indianapolis Colts
Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
Coach Shane Steichen did a great job with this Colts team after losing rookie QB Anthony Richardson four games into the season, but Indianapolis should keep building around him (especially if free agent receiver Michael Pittman Jr. doesn't return). This pick is simply about Bowers being the best player on the board, even if tight end is not an immediate position of need. Bowers is a game-changer who led all FBS tight ends in receiving yards after contact (494) and finished second in forced missed tackles (18) despite being limited to 10 games. He can play in-line, flexed out or even in the backfield.
Team needs: EDGE, WR, CB
16. Seattle Seahawks
Troy Fautanu, G, Washington
Damien Lewis and Phil Haynes are both free agents, so help along the offensive line, especially at guard, will be needed in Seattle. Some scouts project Fautanu as a tackle, where he primarily played at Washington, but he's my top-rated interior lineman. Perhaps he'll start out as a tackle, but I see him as a plug-and-play guard at the next level, especially with Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas locked into the Seahawks' lineup. Fautanu is a sudden and physical blocker who plays with aggressive hands, and his positional flexibility would give Seattle some insurance in case injuries hit the OL again.
Team needs: OL, DL, S
17. Jacksonville Jaguars
Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State
Trevor Lawrence and his targets lacked continuity and chemistry in the passing game, and the Jaguars' wide receiver group had a 4.3% drop rate, sixth worst in the NFL. One missing element is a true 50-50 ball winner on the outside, and at 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds, Coleman can come down with contested catches (13 this season). He would also alleviate some of the attention on Calvin Ridley and open up things inside for Christian Kirk and Evan Engram.
Team needs: WR, IOL, EDGE
Iowa's Cooper DeJean catches the punt and returns it 48 yards for a go-ahead Hawkeyes touchdown.
18. Cincinnati Bengals
Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
With Jonah Williams entering free agency, right tackle becomes an immediate hole for the Bengals -- especially because quarterback Joe Burrow is coming off a season-ending right wrist injury. Yes, Mims comes with questions; he has made nine starts in his career and missed six games in 2023 after undergoing TightRope ankle surgery. But at 6-foot-7 and 340 pounds, he is a nimble mover with great balance in pass protection and strength in the run game. If Tee Higgins ends up signing elsewhere, watch for a receiver here.
Team needs: OT, DL, WR
Reminder: Pick Nos. 19-32 are based on ESPN's Football Power Index projections for the playoffs, and the order won't be final until after Super Bowl LVIII on Feb. 11.
19. Green Bay Packers
Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
The Packers have used only one first-round pick on offense (Jordan Love) over the past decade, and I'm projecting more of the same in 2024. Wiggins is a long and polished prospect who primarily plays on the outside. A strong argument could be made that he has the best technique in this cornerback class, and he has the movement skills and instincts to suffocate matchups in coverage. The trade of Rasul Douglas at the deadline left Green Bay thin in the secondary, and the Packers allowed 8.3 yards per attempt this season (22nd in the NFL). Over the past two seasons, Wiggins broke up 17 passes and picked off three.
Team needs: OL, CB, S
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
Coming into the 2023 season, many thought Verse might be the first defender off the board. A slow start cooled that talk, but he is back on the rise after a dominant second half: 6.5 of his nine sacks came during the final six games. He's a power rusher who relies heavily on speed-to-power moves and his heavy hands, and his 16.5% pressure rate was 10th in the country. The Tampa Bay interior is set with Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey, but the Bucs' most consistent rusher off the edge has been rookie YaYa Diaby. Let's boost that unit with Verse.
Team needs: EDGE, IOL, S
21. Pittsburgh Steelers
Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
Broderick Jones has shown potential as a right tackle in Year 1, but his natural position is on the left side. I could see Pittsburgh sliding him over -- left tackle Dan Moore Jr. gave up 12 sacks this season and 35 over the past three years -- and drafting another first-round tackle. Fuaga is a physically imposing blocker who overwhelms defenders at the point of attack, and the Steelers could build their offensive line around these two reliable bookend tackles.
Team needs: OT, CB, C
22. Arizona Cardinals (via HOU)
Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
Marvin Harrison Jr. was Arizona's first pick (No. 4), so let's turn to defense here. Rookie third-rounder Garrett Williams has been a pleasant surprise, but Antonio Hamilton Sr. is a free agent and turns 31 years old this month. Jonathan Gannon's defense badly needs cornerback help. Arnold's five interceptions tied for sixth most in the FBS this season, and he is an effortless mover in the secondary, even if his game is still a little raw. He has versatility, too, with experience at safety. Arnold will be a riser over the next few months, and some scouts think he could be the first corner off the board in April.
Team needs: WR, CB, IDL
23. Los Angeles Rams
Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
The Rams have been a surprise this season, and although they might choose to focus on their young defense, they could use help on the offensive line. Guyton has the footwork and quickness to develop into a starter on either side, although he has played primarily right tackle at Oklahoma. He thrives in space, and although a lot of his scouting report is projection, he has more than enough traits to become an impact blocker at the next level. He has allowed one sack over 511 career pass-blocking snaps.
Team needs: EDGE, OT, CB
24. Miami Dolphins
Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona
The Dolphins have some important decisions to make along the offensive and defensive lines. Miami was 31st in pass block win rate in the regular season (49.2%). Connor Williams and Robert Hunt are both on expiring contracts, and Terron Armstead has battled injuries, so adding a versatile offensive lineman who can play either spot makes sense. Morgan has played 98% of his 2,313 career snaps at left tackle, but his balance, strength and awareness would allow him to fill multiple positions at the next level.
Morgan would be the seventh OT taken in Round 1 -- the second most in the common draft era (eight in 2008).
Team needs: OL, DL, TE
25. Kansas City Chiefs
Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
Outside of Rashee Rice, the Chiefs' pass-catchers have had a disappointing season, from a league-leading 38 drops to an ineffective downfield passing attack. At 6-foot-4 and 205 pounds, Thomas is a fluid mover, getting in and out of his breaks with ease and showcasing the speed to race past defenders. His 17 touchdown catches led the FBS this season, and 10 came on vertical routes. But Thomas can also use his frame in contested situations to make tough catches, which would make him a favorite of quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
Team needs: WR, IDL, EDGE
26. Houston Texans (via CLE)
Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas
Yes, the Texans' defense has already shown promise in its first year under DeMeco Ryans, but it could go to another level if Houston adds a disruptive defensive tackle this offseason. A versatile 3-technique, Murphy broke out in his first season as a starter, posting a 12.8% pressure rate and five sacks on the interior. He's also able to penetrate the first level against the run and make plays in the backfield (11 run stops).
Team needs: IDL, LB, OL
27. Philadelphia Eagles
Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
Philadelphia hasn't drafted a defensive back in the first round since Lito Sheppard in 2002, but considering how poorly the secondary has played, it might be time to break the 21-year streak. From Week 13 on, the Eagles were 27th in the league in opponent yards per attempt (7.8). Plus, starting safety Sydney Brown suffered a knee injury in Week 18, thinning the team's depth chart. DeJean is dealing with a leg injury of his own, but he can play corner or safety -- I have him as the top safety in the class -- and he had seven interceptions over the past two seasons. He has great speed and plays with physicality.
Team needs: CB, S, LB
28. Detroit Lions
Bralen Trice, EDGE, Washington
The Lions' culture is built on toughness, physicality and relentlessness. If there's one prospect in this class who checks all three boxes, it's Trice. His game centers around power, and he created first pressure on an FBS-high 71 plays this season. Trice also never comes off the field, with a level of effort sure to catch the eyes of GM Brad Holmes and coach Dan Campbell. With seven sacks in 2023, he could serve as a complementary pass-rusher to Aidan Hutchinson, allowing James Houston to stay fresh in a designated pass-rushing role once healthy.
Team needs: CB, EDGE, IOL
29. Buffalo Bills
Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
Ed Oliver is currently the only Bills defensive tackle under contract next season, but it's too early for Texas' T'Vondre Sweat, Michigan's Kris Jenkins or Miami's Leonard Taylor III. The Bills also have a looming decision on free agent Gabe Davis, and while the Josh Allen-Stefon Diggs connection was inconsistent this season, struggles at No. 2 receiver definitely played a part in that. Adding Mitchell, who has impressive speed and sure hands, would give the Bills a different type of target. The most impressive Mitchell metric: 81.8% of his catches went for either a first down or a touchdown this season, second best among receivers with 50-plus catches in the FBS.
Team needs: WR, IDL, CB
30. Dallas Cowboys
Graham Barton, C, Duke
Some scouts believe Barton could play tackle or guard at the next level, especially because he has played left tackle for Duke the past three seasons. But I see him fitting in best at center, where he began his college career. He's my top-ranked center thanks to his awareness and toughness.
Regardless where Barton ultimately lines up, Dallas could use someone who can move around. Tyron Smith is a 33-year-old free agent, and Terence Steele has been woefully inconsistent since signing an extension before the 2023 season. Barton has 39 collegiate starts under his belt and would help this Dallas O-line.
Team needs: OL, IDL, CB
31. Baltimore Ravens
Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State
The Ravens like to continue building up strengths, and that's what they do here with Robinson. Baltimore has gotten a lot of pass-rush productivity out of Jadeveon Clowney (9.5 sacks) and Kyle Van Noy (9.0), but Robinson would make this defense even better. He is one of the most explosive players in this class. Yes, he had only four sacks in 10 games this season, but his 18.0% pressure rate ranked sixth among players with at least 150 pass-rush snaps. For Robinson to reach his full potential, he will need a situation where he isn't relied on as an immediate full-time starter, and this seems like a perfect match.
Team needs: OT, DL, CB
32. San Francisco 49ers
Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
You'll start hearing Mitchell's name more and more because he's likely to rise up draft boards quickly. And for the 49ers, this value is too good to pass up, especially with needs in the secondary. The 6-foot, 196-pound corner first caught scouts' attention last season with a four-interception performance against Northern Illinois. He is a ball magnet with 32 pass breakups and six picks over the past two seasons, but he also limits receivers, allowing a 35.6% completion rate this season as the primary defender.
Team needs: OT, CB, EDGE