The 2023 college football season is down to two teams and one game. And the two quarterbacks in Monday's College Football Playoff national championship game will be talked about endlessly in the lead-up to the 2024 NFL draft. Washington's Michael Penix Jr. will face Michigan's J.J. McCarthy, and following standout performances by both in the semifinals, NFL scouts have been buzzing about their pro potential.
How do McCarthy and Penix stack up? Where does Penix and his fantastic deep ball fit into the class? What about the all-around play of McCarthy? Are either of them -- or both -- potential first-rounders? We spoke with scouts and general managers to dig deeper on these two quarterbacks, including when they could get drafted, what they do best, where they still need work and how they best fit in the NFL game.
J.J. McCarthy, Michigan
Height: 6-foot-3 | Weight: 202 pounds
2023 stats: 2,851 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, 4 interceptions
Where do NFL scouts rank McCarthy, assuming he enters the draft?
Scouts are intrigued by McCarthy's game, and one from the AFC East recently compared his skill set to Joe Burrow because of his mobility, toughness, winning mentality and ability to hit every throw. The consensus projection for McCarthy among NFL evaluators is first-rounder.
"McCarthy isn't really allowed to do a lot at Michigan, but he's so gritty and tough," an NFC general manager said. "The moxie is through the roof. And he's a much better all-around passer than he gets credit for."
I have him at QB4 and No. 22 overall on my board behind Caleb Williams (USC), Drake Maye (North Carolina) and Jayden Daniels (LSU). That could put him anywhere from the top 10 of the first round down to a pick in the late-20s, depending on how fast the other passers come off the board.
The biggest equation in McCarthy's draft stock is the unknown. Of the top six quarterbacks in the class -- Williams, Maye, Daniels, McCarthy, Penix and Oregon's Bo Nix -- he has thrown the fewest passes (472) and fewest touchdown passes (49). The pre-draft process will be huge for extrapolating McCarthy from the Michigan scheme and seeing his talents as a pure passer. But he is still firmly in the Round 1 conversation and is seen around the NFL as a potential top-15 pick, as long as he leaves school early and declares.
How worried are scouts about McCarthy's lack of production?
It comes up. Fans of McCarthy will point to his position-specific traits, like arm strength, field vision, poise and running ability. But those who are less sure about his transition to the NFL definitely hang their hat on his lack of star power stats. After all, he is 40th in passing yards and tied for 37th in touchdown passes among the FBS quarterbacks this season. He went over 300 passing yards once all season (335 against Purdue) and threw for more than 150 against just one of four ranked opponents (221 against Alabama).
"Tell me the game to watch where you're blown away by his quarterback ability," said an AFC South area scout, who had McCarthy graded in Round 3.
McCarthy can't boast the numbers of Penix or his peers, and it could be the deciding factor in a draft room if he's on the board with Daniels, Nix or Penix also available. His 22.4 attempts per game rank 89th in the nation, so the opportunity just hasn't been there. That said, his efficiency stands out. McCarthy's 89.5 QBR ranks third in college football. He threw all of four interceptions and completed 73.2% of his passes.
Where does McCarthy separate himself from the rest of this QB class?
That word "efficiency" comes up often when discussing McCarthy with scouts. He's not a checkdown Charlie looking for every easy pass, but he also doesn't take many uncalculated risks. And those he does take seem to work out. I'm reminded of a throw against Ohio State when the junior fired a pass at the head of a Buckeyes linebacker who had failed to turn around in coverage and still completed it. He averages 9.1 yards per attempt and has been off-target on 8.3%. Both numbers rank 13th in the country.
McCarthy -- who turns 21 on Jan. 20 -- also has great positional upside. Nix, Penix and Daniels are all five-year starters, whereas McCarthy and Maye are two-year starters who NFL scouts believe can be better developed given their youth and all-around abilities.
J.J. McCarthy finds a wide open Blake Corum running toward the end zone as Michigan levels the score with Alabama.
What's his best NFL team fit?
McCarthy is an efficient passer with a strong arm, good mobility and a toughness that scouts love and praise consistently. He also has won a ton of games in college -- 26-1 -- and scouts mention it often. But what NFL team makes the most sense for McCarthy?
Well, the Las Vegas Raiders could very well hire his college coach, Jim Harbaugh (who recently said McCarthy is the greatest quarterback in Michigan football history). Vegas has a big hole at quarterback, and with a pick projected to be in the middle of Round 1, McCarthy could be the answer.
Michael Penix Jr., Washington
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 213 pounds
2023 stats: 4,648 passing yards, 35 touchdowns, 9 interceptions
Is Penix a first-rounder?
I asked 10 NFL scouts and received replies all over the map. Penix joins McCarthy as the most debated quarterbacks in terms of draft stock in this class.
"I would put him in the same range as [Daniels]," an AFC scout who covers the Pacific Northwest said. "I think he's in that pick six to 13 range."
But a different AFC scout who is tasked with cross-checking the quarterbacks has a completely different opinion: "I think he's a Round 3 guy on grade but might go earlier because of the position."
Various other evaluators chimed in with a wide spectrum of takes. Of the 10 scouts and general managers polled, three said Penix would be a first-round pick, five saw him as a second-round selection and two said the third round was more likely. I personally have him at No. 40 overall and QB5, but there's a lot of time for things to change. With the pre-draft process just getting started, Penix has opportunities to win over doubters -- notably if he accepts an invitation to participate in the Senior Bowl this month.
Why are scouts still skeptical of his pro ceiling?
We can start with the injuries. Though Penix -- who will be 24 years old as an NFL rookie -- has made it through two seasons at Washington without missing action, his four prior seasons at Indiana ended early due to health. An NFC West scout who has covered Penix in person says those medical concerns and a one-read Huskies offense will bring Penix's stock down to Earth after the season ends.
"He's had four seasons in college end in injury -- two knees and two shoulders. That's pretty vital to the position," he said.
Teams must weigh it, and much is unknown now, before a full medical evaluation is done at the combine in late February. "I haven't even dug into the injury stuff yet," an AFC general manager said, "but I know it exists and it's real, and we'll see how it looks when we get [to the combine]."
On the field, one AFC North scout pointed out ball placement to the intermediate levels of the field -- even after Penix threw for 430 yards and completed 76% of his passes against Texas. The numbers do back that, as Penix is 87th in the country in off-target percentage on throws 10 to 20 yards downfield this season (18.4%).
"Even against Texas, I thought there were too many throws when his receivers bailed him out," he said.
What is Penix's best trait?
Is it too simple to say "throwing the football" here? Penix is a master at laying the ball up for his wide receivers and understanding the type of pass needed for each moment. If Rome Odunze is blanketed in man coverage, Penix trusts him to bring down a 50-50 ball. If Jalen McMillan is streaking down the field, Penix leads him into space, trusting McMillan's body control and acceleration.
Penix's 95.5 QBR on deep routes is outstanding and points to how successful he is on vertical passes. He has great arm strength and the ability to loft the ball over defenders from multiple arm angles and multiple platforms. No other quarterback in college football has more completions on passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield this season than Penix (45).
Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. lobs a perfect pass to Rome Odunze for a 32-yard play.
What's his best NFL team fit?
Penix has a world-class arm with fantastic ability to loft the football deep over the heads of defensive backs, but he needs a scheme at the next level where he's protected by a good offensive line and can get the ball out quickly. Finding a trio of wide receivers like he has had at Washington might be tough in the NFL, too.
But I keep going back to the Atlanta Falcons, who need a reset at quarterback and have invested three straight top-10 draft picks in offensive skill players.