It's always interesting watching mock drafts evolve over a long period of time. A year out from the NFL draft, we already know most of what we need to know about most of the players who will hear their names called. In his May 2022 way-too-early rankings for 2023, Mel Kiper Jr. listed Alabama's Will Anderson Jr. and Bryce Young, Ohio State's C.J. Stroud and Georgia's Jalen Carter as his top four prospects; in his most recent rankings, all four were still in his top five. Six of last May's top 10 were still in Kiper's top 10.
There are always shifts, however. Some players have disappointing seasons and fall in the mocks. (Sorry, Kayshon Boutte.) Some veterans finally put all the pieces together and rise. (Hello, Joey Porter Jr.) And almost inevitably, more and more quarterbacks coalesce toward the top as bad teams with top picks begin talking themselves into trying to win the QB lottery. Last May, Kiper had two quarterbacks in his top 10. Now? Four in his top six.
We know why this happens, of course. Quarterback is the most important position in team sports, and as Bill Barnwell recently wrote, there is a pretty big financial incentive when it comes to building around a quarterback on a rookie contract. (Financially, it almost doesn't make sense to draft anything but a quarterback, left tackle, edge rusher or receiver in the first round.)
Still, just because a QB gets picked in or near the top five, that obviously doesn't mean he'll be a top-five performer. In the past five drafts, 18 quarterbacks have been selected in the first round -- 12 have gone among the top 10 picks, seven among the top three. Of this batch of 18 first-rounders, only three have ranked among the top 12 quarterbacks, per Total QBR, over the past five NFL seasons: Josh Allen (No. 7 pick in 2018), Lamar Jackson (No. 32 in 2018) and Justin Herbert (No. 6 in 2020). All had statistical flaws on their résumé, all landed with teams that proved equipped to maximize their talent and none went in the top five.
Certain recent top picks are certainly trending in the right direction -- Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence, to name two -- but some either have flamed out (Josh Rosen) or are well on their way to doing so (Zach Wilson, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold). The jury remains out on others, due to either injury (Trey Lance), injury and stagnation (Kyler Murray), or a small and confusing sample size (Justin Fields).
We're never as good at predicting player success as we think we are, and as I wrote a couple of years ago, in the game of nature vs. nurture, we always underestimate the importance of nurture -- i.e. the competence of the team selecting the player. (It probably isn't a total coincidence that two of the "on their way toward flaming out" quarterbacks mentioned above were drafted by the New York Jets, for instance.)
This piece therefore isn't about which top QB prospect from the 2023 draft class will succeed or which I would personally take with the No. 1 pick. (I'm sure my preferences will become semi-obvious, however.) Instead, it's about simply setting the table. What can we learn from each quarterback's statistical profile? What are each player's noteworthy red flags and fatal flaws that teams will need to understand and accommodate?
First, the numbers.