The most important element of the NFL draft is picking the right players. The hardest part of the NFL draft is picking the right players. Study after study suggest the ability to pick prospects is overwhelmed by randomness and variance.
Players can struggle to stay healthy. The coach who drafted a player might get fired and replaced by someone who runs a different scheme. College success might not translate to the professional level. Even if a general manager is great at scouting talent, he might get only a couple of drafts before he gets fired. This stuff is hard. GMs can't control how the prospects they pick will pan out, but they do have more control over what they do in terms of moving up, down and around the board during draft weekend.
Let's focus on those decisions and run through each of the 31 picks in the first round of the 2023 draft. I'll identify whether each team can make a stronger argument toward moving up, down or staying put at each selection. Remember, there are only 31 selections because the Dolphins were stripped of their first-rounder for tampering with Tom Brady and Sean Payton. Giving away a first-round pick for nothing is a good way to ensure a team doesn't draft well.
To try to figure out what each team should be thinking on draft day, I'll look at how they should be approaching the draft given their current roster construction and expected success in 2023. For teams that have had the same brain trust in place for a number of years, I'll also consider the moves they've made in the past to inform how they typically approach Round 1 trades and whether they prefer moving up or down.
We'll start with a pick that already has been on the move. The Panthers acquired the No. 1 overall pick, and they won't deal it again ... right?
Jump to an interesting pick:
ARI at No. 3 | SEA at No. 5
NYJ at No. 13 | GB at No. 15
MIN at No. 23 | PHI at No. 30
1. Carolina Panthers (from CHI)
What they should do: Stay put.
Well, this pick already has been traded. There's not much logic in a team trading up for the No. 1 pick and then moving back down, but the Panthers have insisted they moved up without a specific player in mind. If you're skeptical of that claim, join the club, which is why I have them staying put here.
Let's take what the Panthers have suggested at face value. We can safely say that they moved up for a quarterback. If they were willing to settle for the third-best quarterback in this class, they should have been able to offer a lesser package to the Cardinals (to move up from No. 9 to No. 3) than the one they sent to the Bears. It seems plausible Carolina could be open to one of two quarterbacks, which would mean a move down to the No. 2 pick.
How much would the Texans really be willing to give to undo the Miracle of Lovie Smith and get their choice of quarterbacks at No. 1? And how much would the Panthers want to pass up that choice? Carolina could try to squeeze Houston for the 33rd pick, which is one of the most valuable selections in the entire draft after accounting for cost. That deal might look great by most (advanced) draft value charts, but if the Texans end up landing the best quarterback by moving up, Carolina general manager Scott Fitterer wouldn't hear the end of it for the rest of his career.
I don't think the Panthers realistically should or will trade down, but, well, they can't trade up.
2. Houston Texans
What they should do: Trade up.
The Texans have no reason to move down given where they stand, their need for a quarterback and all the teams that want signal-callers lurking below them. If there's a quarterback they truly love and believe the Panthers would take him at No. 1, they could consider trading up.
Only they know how much they value one quarterback in this class over the others, but that confidence isn't always rewarded. We saw a team in 2017 move up one spot in the top three, when the Bears sent two third-round picks and a fourth-rounder to the 49ers to move up from No. 3 to No. 2 and grab Mitch Trubisky. In that scenario, Chicago was trading up to prevent San Francisco from dealing the pick to another team, which could then have drafted Trubisky.
It didn't go so well. The No. 3 selection was used on defensive lineman Solomon Thomas, though the midround picks general manager John Lynch acquired produced a pair of future superstars. The 49ers drafted linebacker Fred Warner and traded one of the other selections to the Saints, who took running back Alvin Kamara. The Bears could have just stayed put, held on to the picks and drafted Patrick Mahomes. Drafting is hard!
3. Arizona Cardinals
What they should do: Trade down.
There might not be a more obvious spot to trade down in this draft than the Cardinals. Any team that wants the third-best quarterback in the class will want to move ahead of the Colts at No. 4, so new general manager Monti Ossenfort should field reasonable offers for this selection over the next few weeks. At the very least, Arizona should be able to extract something from the Colts to move up one spot, as the 49ers did from the Bears.
Drafting a player who projects as a star at a critical position isn't the worst thing in the world, so I wouldn't fault Arizona for taking edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. (Alabama) if no trade offer arises. The Cardinals aren't one player away from being competitive, however. If Ossenfort can extract a future first-round pick from a team in the top 12 -- maybe the Raiders (No. 7) or Falcons (No. 8)? -- it likely would be worth moving down. Arizona should still be able to land a building block in 2023 while adding a second possible top-10 pick in 2024.
4. Indianapolis Colts
What they should do: Trade up.
The Colts have to be hoping the Cardinals don't get any trade interest and take Anderson, because they don't want to see a third quarterback drafted before them. They're in a no man's land, as they can't move down and expect to land the quarterback prospect they've needed since Andrew Luck retired unless they want to take a shot on Hendon Hooker (Tennessee) outside of Round 1.
Indianapolis won't be able to move up to Nos. 1 or 2 since those teams won't want to be stuck drafting what could be the fourth-ranked quarterback in this class. The Cardinals aren't going to give them the No. 3 pick unless they don't field any significant interest, at which point they would just draft Anderson anyway.
In the Colts' dream scenario, the Panthers draft C.J. Stroud (Ohio State), the Texans balk on the size of Bryce Young (Alabama) and take Anthony Richardson (Florida) or Will Levis (Kentucky), the Cardinals take Anderson, and Young is available at No. 4. After a nightmarish 2022 season, the Colts might feel like they deserve a ray of sunshine or two.
5. Seattle Seahawks (from DEN)
What they should do: Trade down.
If the Seahawks plan to draft a quarterback, they could consider trading up to get ahead of the Colts. As NFL.com's Gregg Rosenthal pointed out, though, they re-signed Geno Smith and gave Drew Lock $4 million guaranteed to be Smith's backup. It's not out of the question Seattle drafts a passer -- Richardson? -- and installs him as the No. 3 option, but the Lock signing might also be an indication the organization doesn't like the top quarterbacks, no matter how many pictures it takes with them.
Let's say the Seahawks are not drafting a quarterback. We know general manager John Schneider typically prefers to trade down, both from his lineage of working underneath late general manager Ted Thompson and more than a decade of his own work in Seattle. When he has traded within the first two rounds of the draft since 2010, 14 of his 17 deals have been trades down. Schneider has been aggressive in trading picks in those rounds for veteran players, but it's difficult to imagine him dealing this selection for somebody already in the league.
Seattle typically doesn't draft this high, so this might be a chance to add someone at a key position such as Anderson if four quarterbacks come off the board to start the draft. It's typically more valuable to move down and add more premium selections if you're offered first- and second-round picks as part of a deal, though. If the Seahawks can land a future first-rounder from the Titans (No. 11) or Commanders (No. 16) as part of a trade up for a quarterback, Schneider should be amenable to moving back.
6. Detroit Lions (from LAR)
What they should do: Stay put.
The Lions seem comfortable moving forward with Jared Goff as their quarterback after his excellent second half of the 2022 season. Goff has two years left on his deal, so the team could use the first of its two Round 1 selections on a quarterback to eventually replace him, but I wouldn't be surprised if the 28-year-old Goff instead landed a contract extension this offseason.
After ranking 32nd in pass defense QBR a year ago, Detroit addressed its secondary by signing Cameron Sutton, Emmanuel Moseley and C.J. Gardner-Johnson in free agency. Aidan Hutchinson, the No. 2 overall pick last year, looked promising as a rookie, but staying put here would give the franchise the opportunity to add one of the other top defensive linemen, Tyree Wilson (Texas Tech) or Jalen Carter (Georgia). Carter is considered one of the most talented prospects in this class, but he recently pleaded no contest to misdemeanor charges of reckless driving and racing for his alleged role in a Jan. 15 car wreck.
Unless the Lions are blown away by an offer, it would make sense for them to address their D-line here.
7. Las Vegas Raiders
What they should do: Trade down.
The Raiders desperately need draft capital. They're missing an entire generation of homegrown talent from their drafts between 2013 and 2020, a period in which just three of their 29 selections within the top 100 are still on the roster. (Just two are starters -- running back Josh Jacobs and offensive tackle Kolton Miller.) Coach Josh McDaniels arrived in town and immediately dealt his first- and second-round picks in last year's draft for Davante Adams, adding a star wide receiver but depriving the Raiders of the cost-controlled starters they need to rebuild the roster.
Vegas has an extra pick at the bottom of the third round in this draft after trading Darren Waller to the Giants, but this organization needs to add extra selections. It could stand to add a cornerback such as Christian Gonzalez (Oregon) or one of the defensive linemen, but so could the Falcons, Bears and Eagles behind them in the top 10. Every top-100 pick the Raiders can add for depth on their roster would be valuable.
8. Atlanta Falcons
What they should do: Stay put.
With their cap problems behind them, the Falcons have been aggressive in free agency this offseason, adding defensive linemen Calais Campbell and David Onyemata and safety Jessie Bates to a long-woeful defense. Coach Arthur Smith appears to be confident in Desmond Ridder as the team's starting quarterback in 2023, even if his justification curiously starts by quoting Ridder's record and success in college. The Falcons don't appear to be in the Lamar Jackson discussion, and it would be a surprise if they moved up for another young quarterback before seeing more out of Ridder.
Edge rusher and cornerback are still weaknesses for this team, and there should be options on the board in this range for Atlanta. Adding another player to the mix for new defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen would make sense.
9. Chicago Bears (from CAR)
What they should do: Stay put.
The Bears already traded out of the No. 1 overall pick, landing wide receiver DJ Moore and a bevy of draft picks from the Panthers in the process. Great! Even Bears fans would admit they're not one young player away in their rebuild, so while this draft is going to be critical in general manager Ryan Poles' developmental plan, it's not the final chapter of the book. Chicago should be far more open to trading down from this pick than trading up.
The only issue is the premium positions the team needs to land at some point during this process are left tackle and edge rusher, and there could be options for it on the board here. Rookie fifth-rounder Braxton Jones battled gamely at left tackle a year ago, but he might profile best as a right tackle at this level. ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. has tackles Paris Johnson Jr. (Ohio State) and Peter Skoronski (Northwestern) coming off the board at Nos. 9 and 10 in his most recent mock draft, and Poles likely would love to come out of this draft with one of those linemen to protect quarterback Justin Fields.
10. Philadelphia Eagles (from NO)
What they should do: Trade down.
Howie Roseman is one of the most analytically inclined general managers in the league, so the Eagles are always going to lean toward trading down. When Roseman has moved up in the past in the first round, it usually has been small moves to get ahead of a team, as he did for offensive tackle Andre Dillard in 2019 and defensive tackle Jordan Davis in 2022. His biggest deal came in 2016, when he moved up from No. 8 to No. 2 for then-quarterback of the future Carson Wentz.
Given the cutbacks the Eagles have needed to make on defense this offseason in advance of quarterback Jalen Hurts' raise from $1.5 million per season to something north of $50 million per year, Roseman & Co. need to add more cost-controlled talent to their roster. I would expect Philadelphia to use at least one of its two first-round picks -- it also owns No. 30 -- on a defensive lineman. It likely would drop deeper into the round to do so.
11. Tennessee Titans
What they should do: Trade down.
If the Titans aren't rebuilding, they're undergoing a significant retooling. They've cut several of their most expensive players without signing many replacements. Safety Kevin Byard, who was a first-team All-Pro in 2021, was asked to take a pay cut and refused. He might be next. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill and running back Derrick Henry are in the final years of their contracts and don't have extensions. It certainly feels like new general manager Ran Carthon was brought in to start over.
In that scenario, moving up for a quarterback could be appealing, as long as there's somebody Tennessee loves toward the top of this draft. If the team struggles next season, though, it might be in position to draft a signal-caller much higher in 2024. And on a roster in which just four of former GM Jon Robinson's 14 first- and second-round picks from 2016-21 are starters -- and eight are off the roster altogether -- the Titans need to add more homegrown talent to their roster.
12. Houston Texans (from CLE)
What they should do: Stay put.
Assuming the Texans use the No. 2 pick on a quarterback, this selection likely will go toward a defender. Houston's only returning player to have more than three sacks last season is 34-year-old Jerry Hughes, so this would be a logical place to look for pass-rushing help. This could be a landing spot for Wilson, Nolan Smith (Georgia) or Lukas Van Ness (Iowa).
It's also not a spot teams are likely to be targeting in trades, given the uncertainty around the prospects the Jets, Patriots and Packers could be drafting afterward.
13. New York Jets
What they should do: Trade down.
If we assume the Jets end our national nightmare and eventually consummate the Aaron Rodgers trade, they'll be sending some uncertain amount of draft capital to the Packers to land their new quarterback. It doesn't seem as if the Jets are willing to send this choice to Green Bay, but they have two second-rounders and all of their key selections in 2024, so it seems safe to suggest at least one of those second-round picks and some capital next year will be heading the other way.
Moving down from No. 13 would help recoup some of that capital for general manager Joe Douglas. The Jets are fortunate enough to have an exciting roster after the past few years, so their goal should be to add depth along the defensive line and help on the interior of the offensive line, which they can achieve later in the draft.
One exception would be if the Jets aren't optimistic about former first-round pick Mekhi Becton, who has missed most of the past two seasons with injuries and seemed to fall out of favor with the organization. Duane Brown is on the roster, but he is 37 and entering the final year of his deal. If Douglas is ready to move on from Becton, he could move up to get ahead of the Bears (No. 9) and Titans (No. 11) to take a left tackle.
14. New England Patriots
What they should do: Stay put.
Bill Belichick traded down a year ago and has generated plenty of draft capital by trading down over his 23 years as the chief grocery shopper in New England. He also has traded up more than you might remember, although those moves are usually no more than a few spots. The last time Belichick moved up in the first round was 2012, but he did it with two different selections. Both deals went well, as the Patriots landed edge rusher Chandler Jones and linebacker Dont'a Hightower for their efforts.
Otherwise, though, Belichick has either stayed put, traded down (nine times) or swapped his first-round pick for a future first-rounder (twice) since 2004. The Pats usually haven't landed this high in the draft, but this would be a place for Belichick to land his left tackle of the future, given that Isaiah Wynn didn't pan out and Trent Brown is entering the final year of his deal.
The Patriots could try to move up a few spots to land one of the top two tackles in the class, but that would be surprising.
15. Green Bay Packers
What they should do: Trade up.
Since becoming Packers general manager in 2018, Brian Gutekunst generally has been aggressive in the first round, trading up in each of his first three drafts. The third trade led to quarterback Jordan Love and all of the subsequent Aaron Rodgers drama. The Packers obviously hope the Rodgers trade is resolved by the time they're on the clock, given that they'll want to plan their draft decisions knowing which picks they actually have to work with over the three-day window.
It's tough to imagine the Jets sending the No. 13 pick outright to the Packers as part of a Rodgers deal, but it's not impossible to imagine a scenario in which the Jets get Rodgers and Green Bay moves up from No. 15 to No. 13 as part of that trade. In doing so, the Packers could jump the Patriots if they want to land a left tackle. David Bakhtiari was a building block, but he has played just five complete games over the past two seasons because of injuries and has a $40.5 million cap hit in 2024. Yosh Nijman played the left side for a stretch last season, but he might be best at right tackle long term.
Green Bay could also take an edge rusher or wide receiver ahead of New England, although the latter feels at least a little bit like a running joke at this point.
16. Washington Commanders
What they should do: Stay put.
Washington feels like a franchise on pause, pending the potential sale of the team by Daniel Snyder at some point during the 2023 league year. The Commanders seem to be comfortable at quarterback with Jacoby Brissett and second-year passer Sam Howell, and while they could stand to add a cornerback in Round 1, there are several with first-round grades who profile to be on the board here.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers
What they should do: Stay put.
The Steelers have not traded down in the first round of the draft since 2001, when Kevin Colbert was in his second season as the director of football operations. Colbert retired after the 2022 draft and turned things over to Omar Khan. It remains to be seen whether Khan will chart his own path, but outside of trading up three times in the first round over that stretch, this is an organization that generally stays where its picks fall early in the draft.
18. Detroit Lions
What they should do: Trade down.
The Lions traded up with their first-round pick from the Rams last year, jumping from No. 32 to No. 12 to take wide receiver Jameson Williams. The Jimmy Johnson chart loved the deal for the Lions, but more modern charts pegged the deal as a win for Minnesota. Detroit general manager Brad Holmes gave up the second pick in Rounds 2 and 3 as part of the deal, although he did get back the No. 46 pick in return.
With the Lions closer to contention, there's going to be an urge to try to land another premium player by moving up, but I'd like to see them recoup some of the capital they lost last year by going the other way. This is a spot in which teams could be trying to trade up for a quarterback, which could happen if one of the top four passers falls out of the top 15 or if a team has a mid-first-round grade on Hendon Hooker (Tennessee).
The Buccaneers and Seahawks are coming up next and could consider a quarterback with their picks. Holmes made a deal with the Vikings last year; could Minnesota move up again here to land its quarterback of the future?
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
What they should do: Trade down.
Tampa Bay general manager Jason Licht understandably put the pedal to the metal over the past three years to build a Super Bowl-caliber team around Tom Brady, and the Bucs landed a second Lombardi Trophy in franchise history as a result. No issues there, but now they're dealing with what happens after a team goes all-in. The Bucs are in messy cap shape and have a quarterback room composed of Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask. If there's any team that could spring a surprise and unexpectedly move up to the top five for a passer, this would seem to be the one.
If they don't move up for a quarterback, the Bucs need to land cost-controlled talent to fill out their roster. There's just not any meaningful depth left at most positions. Lacking a fourth-round pick, even a small move down to add an extra midround selection or two would be helpful for Todd Bowles' team. With the Chargers (No. 21), Ravens (No. 22), Giants (No. 25) and Bills (No. 27) all coming up and potentially in the market for a receiver in the first round, Tampa Bay could be in a position to leverage its pick with one of those teams.
20. Seattle Seahawks
What they should do: Trade down.
Likewise, the Seahawks don't need receivers and should be trying to solicit interest from the teams below them. We've seen them be comfortable moving down to the bottom of the first round and even to the top of the second round in this range, so I'm not sure they typically see much difference between the players in the 20s and the ones available 10 or 15 picks later.
What happens here might depend on what Seattle elects to do with the No. 5 pick. If it drafts a quarterback who won't play much in 2022, this selection might be coach Pete Carroll's chance to add an immediate contributor to the roster. If the Seahawks draft a non-quarterback early, they are more likely to trade away this pick for additional selections, possibly to take a quarterback later in the draft.
21. Los Angeles Chargers
What they should do: Stay put.
With quarterback Justin Herbert about to get dramatically more expensive, the Chargers need to find more talent on team-friendly deals over the next few seasons. They need speed at receiver and depth in their front seven, but those are issues they can address later in the draft.
The problem? General manager Tom Telesco hasn't traded down once in the first three rounds of the draft since taking over in 2013. He has traded up four times over that time frame, most recently for disappointing linebacker Kenneth Murray in 2020. I'd like to see the Chargers trade down for extra selections, but if the alternative is trading up and giving away draft capital they will need in the years to come, staying put is fine.
22. Baltimore Ravens
What they should do: Stay put.
If the Commanders are a franchise on hold because of their ownership situation, the Ravens' situation is on pause as they wait to see what happens with quarterback Lamar Jackson. Do they need to draft a quarterback, either to play in 2023 or beyond? Should they be pursuing run-blocking talents to play in an offense built around Jackson's strengths, or should they add another wide receiver to operate in a more traditional passing attack? I'm sure Baltimore would prefer some resolution of the Jackson situation by draft day, but a conclusion to one of the offseason's most intriguing storylines doesn't appear to be on its way anytime soon.
As it stands, the Ravens likely would be looking for help on the defense, with cornerback a pressing issue. Adding local product Deonte Banks (Maryland) would seem like an obvious opportunity if he's still on the board here, with wide receiver as a fallback plan.
23. Minnesota Vikings
What they should do: Trade down.
Minnesota general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah moved all around the first two rounds of the draft a year ago, trading down twice (both times within the NFC North) and moving up once. As someone who was part of the analytics side of the building in San Francisco earlier in his career, it's easier to imagine Adofo-Mensah making the choice to trade down here, especially if there are teams that want to jump ahead of the Giants for a wide receiver at No. 25.
While the Vikings won 13 games a year ago, a trade up would be less about the 2023 team and more about the seasons that follow. Quarterback Kirk Cousins will be a free agent in 2024, and the only quarterback behind him on the roster is former 49ers backup Nick Mullens. If the Vikings were to try and head way up the board for something significant, it could be for a quarterback.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars
What they should do: Trade down.
Jacksonville general manager Trent Baalke made a small move up in Round 1 last year to land inside linebacker Devin Lloyd, but during his time with San Francisco, he was aggressive moving both ways. In 2011, Baalke moved up in Round 2 for future Super Bowl quarterback Colin Kaepernick, but moves up for Vance McDonald (Round 2, 2013) and Joshua Garnett (Round 1, 2016) didn't turn out quite as well.
The Jaguars don't have pressing holes in key spots on their roster, which usually means they can be comfortable trading down to address positions such as left guard and nickel cornerback later in the draft. Coach Doug Pederson likely wants to add another tight end to replace departed blocker Chris Manhertz and eventually take over as the starter if Evan Engram doesn't agree to a long-term deal, and that's a position the Jags could hit in the 30s and 40s this year.
25. New York Giants
What they should do: Trade up.
Giants general manager Joe Schoen traded down multiple times in his first draft with Big Blue a year ago, adding a pair of fifth-round picks across deals for moving down from No. 36 to No. 43. They still landed receiver Wan'Dale Robinson at that spot, but Robinson tore the ACL in his right knee in December and might not be ready to start the 2023 season.
Expectations have changed in New York after a surprising trip to the postseason, though, and Schoen should still be in the market for a No. 1 receiver to play alongside Robinson, Darius Slayton and new acquisition Darren Waller. Getting that player probably means moving ahead of the Chargers (No. 21) and Ravens (No. 22). Cornerback is also a weakness for the Giants, and Schoen could want to jump the Seahawks (No. 20) if there's somebody he likes on the board.
26. Dallas Cowboys
What they should do: Stay put.
While it's easy to imagine Dallas team owner Jerry Jones trying to keep star Texas running back Bijan Robinson in state, the Cowboys generally stay where they are on draft day. They've made just one trade during the first three rounds of the draft since 2015, moving down two spots in a deal with the Eagles in 2021. Philly landed wideout DeVonta Smith, but the Cowboys still got their man, picking star defender Micah Parsons.
Robinson would be a logical addition for a roster that doesn't have much behind franchise-tagged back Tony Pollard, but the Cowboys need depth more than they need players at any specific position. Even if they miss out on the top running back in the class, I wouldn't be surprised if they added a running back later in the draft.
27. Buffalo Bills
What they should do: Trade down.
Bills fans might love the idea of moving up for one amazing player to try to put their team over the top in its chase for a Super Bowl, but the Von Miller signing from a year ago shows how that can go wrong if that player isn't available.
With the Bills paying for Miller, quarterback Josh Allen and several other stars around their roster, this is a team that needs to add multiple players to supplement its core. Teams at the top of the second round are usually looking to move up into this range, and the Bills should be listening.
28. Cincinnati Bengals
What they should do: Stay put.
The Bengals are in transition on defense, as their free agency-fueled success on that side of that ball is unsustainable in a world in which quarterback Joe Burrow and wideouts Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are about to get massive raises. Burrow and Higgins should be on the list this summer before Chase gets paid next year, and that's going to impact the defense. Defensive backs Vonn Bell, Jessie Bates and Eli Apple all left in free agency, while defensive linemen Trey Hendrickson and DJ Reader and cornerback Chidobe Awuzie will be pending free agents next year.
We saw Cincinnati plan for the changes by drafting defensive backs Dax Hill and Cam Taylor-Britt in the first two rounds of last year's draft, and I would expect the team to add to its defensive line this time around. A tight end to replace Hayden Hurst and Drew Sample would also make sense, but the Bengals should be in range to land one of the tight ends from this class in the first two rounds without needing to move up.
29. New Orleans Saints (from DEN/MIA/SF)
What they should do: Trade up.
The Saints should be trading down to add cost-controlled players for a roster that is old, expensive and lacking depth. That's not their style, though. They have a well-established habit of trading up in the first few rounds of the draft for the players they want. Those moves have delivered star running back Alvin Kamara and wideout Chris Olave, but they have also instead landed on edge rusher Marcus Davenport and linebacker Zack Baun.
After losing a large chunk of its defensive line over the offseason, New Orleans could move up a few spots to try to target someone such as tackle Calijah Kancey (Pitt). Both Kiper and draft analyst Jordan Reid have the Cowboys opting for defensive linemen at No. 26, so the Saints could try to get ahead of Dallas to land their preferred option.
30. Philadelphia Eagles
What they should do: Trade ... into the future.
OK, this one's not up or down. Last year, we saw the Eagles defer on one of their first-round picks by sending a first-rounder to the Saints for a package built around New Orleans' 2023 first-rounder. It looked like that pick could land in the top five for a stretch before eventually landing at No. 10. For waiting a year and moving down two spots with their other first-round pick, the Eagles essentially picked up a third-rounder and moved up from the 19th pick in 2022 to the 10th pick in 2023.
Here, I wonder if Roseman will try to pull the same tactic on a team desperate to get back into the first round of this draft. Unless he's making a trade with the Chiefs, he can feel confident the first-rounder the Eagles get in 2024 will be a better selection than No. 30. Could this be a spot in which the Titans or Vikings try to land Hooker by giving up their first-rounder next year?
31. Kansas City Chiefs
What they should do: Trade up.
Let's finish with the defending champs, who have typically been aggressive in moving up in the first round over the past few seasons, with Patrick Mahomes (2017) as the most famous example. Last year, the Chiefs jumped from No. 29 to No. 21 to take cornerback Trent McDuffie in a trade with the Patriots. The two teams then hooked up again for a second-round trade, but this time, it was the Patriots who moved up for receiver Tyquan Thornton. The Chiefs landed their own wideout in Skyy Moore.
Kansas City general manager Brett Veach & Co. could be looking for another receiver this time, but I wonder if this is the draft in which they target the player who ends up as the long-term replacement for Travis Kelce. The future Hall of Famer is doing virtually unprecedented things for a tight end in his mid-30s, but he eventually has to slow down. Adding a second playmaker at tight end will only help an offense that loved playing out of 12 personnel a season ago.
The Chiefs could stay put and grab a tight end without any question, but if they have a particular affinity for Michael Mayer (Notre Dame) or Dalton Kincaid (Utah), they might need to move up a few spots to beat the Jags (No. 24) and Cowboys (No. 26) to the punch.