When we headed into the 2022 college football season, most NFL draft evaluators and scouts saw a 2023 wide receiver class loaded with talent that could once again dominate the first round. Then the season began.
Ohio State's Jaxon Smith-Njigba was coming off a record-setting performance in last year's Rose Bowl but caught just five passes this season while battling a hamstring injury. LSU's Kayshon Boutte was viewed as perhaps the most explosive receiver in the country but wasn't healthy to start the year (ankle surgery in the spring) and posted just two 100-yard games all season. The top-ranked receivers from the summer were sidelined and slowed, leaving us with a much different 2023 class than what we saw in August.
"This is a strong middle-tier draft class, but it's not strong at the top," said one NFL general manager. "I don't see anyone in this class who is a surefire WR1 out of the gate."
Scouts widely agree that there are talented receivers -- including some who may emerge or develop into WR1 playmakers -- but few have a true first-round grade at this point. So with the regular season over and just one bowl game left to be played, we asked NFL scouts, general managers and coaches to help us restack this complicated wide receiver board, adding their insight on a difficult class to evaluate. Who is the consensus No. 1 now? And what are league evaluators saying about the top 10 pass-catchers? Let's dig in.
1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State
The presumptive No. 1 wide receiver heading into the season, Smith-Njigba missed all but three games in 2022 and caught just five passes for 43 yards. For context, JSN caught 15 passes for 347 yards and three scores in the 2022 Rose Bowl alone. Scouts are unsure how to grade a player who missed so much time with a hamstring injury and who was not the No. 1 target at Ohio State during the 2021 season, when the Buckeyes had Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson on the roster.
"He's scary [as a prospect], because when he's out there, he's so good -- but hamstring injuries have a way of coming back," one NFC area scout said.
But another scout says they are not worried about Smith-Njigba's hamstring injury, citing Ja'Marr Chase and Micah Parsons opting out of their final year of college and instantly producing in the NFL. "As long as he's healthy in September, he's the only [wide receiver] in this class that is a true WR1."
Smith-Njigba remains my top-ranked wideout because of what we have seen: eight straight games of over 95 yards to close out the 2021 season and the greatest bowl game ever for a wide receiver. He has shown excellent body control at 6-foot-1 and 200 pounds while showcasing the burst and agility to create separation against NFL-caliber defenders. The injury must be weighed in the evaluation, but a healthy JSN is the best receiver in the class.
NFL comparison: CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
Best team fits: Atlanta Falcons, Houston Texans, New York Giants
2. Jordan Addison, USC
The 2021 Biletnikoff Award winner racked up 100 catches for 1,593 yards and 17 TD receptions at Pitt before transferring to USC prior to the 2022 season. He went on to 59 catches, 875 yards and eight touchdowns. Scouts are concerned, though, about a drop off in production despite playing in a pass-heavy offense and on a Trojans team that was often in shootouts.
"I'm just not sure he's a guy who can produce outside the scheme," said one West Coast scout. "He had this huge year with a great college quarterback [Pitt's Kenny Pickett] and then goes to play under Lincoln Riley with Caleb Williams and has average numbers. He's never proven himself as the guy to me."
Addison lacks great size at 6-foot and 175 pounds, but another scout is a fan of his body type and makeup. "People have to see him in person. He's not a lean 175 pounds. The dude is rocked up, plays very strong and is physical. He's my top WR, and I'll bet you he's a top-20 pick."
With Addison nursing an ankle injury and missing the Cotton Bowl, scouts are anxious to see him work out at the NFL scouting combine. His tape doesn't show elite speed, so all eyes will be on his 40-yard dash time. Much like Garrett Wilson last year, if Addison can impress on the track, his film is good enough to warrant a selection in the front half of Round 1. He did have two games with more than 170 receiving yards this year, and his agility and lower-body control -- and the way he uses them to separate in his route tree -- are outstanding. Addison has the tools to become one of the league's best route runners early in his career.
NFL comparison: Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers
Best team fits: Houston Texans, Chicago Bears, New York Giants
3. Quentin Johnston, TCU
In a draft class loaded with smaller wide receivers, the 6-foot-4, 215-pound Johnston stands out from the rest. One NFL general manager believes that size could push Johnston into the WR1 spot.
"Johnston has the size to be a WR1, but he also has the mental and physical makeup to become a great player. He's good now, but he'll work his ass off to become great."
Johnston was slowed this season by an ankle injury but still managed to grab 59 passes for 1,066 yards and six touchdowns in a run-first offensive scheme, and he still has one more game to play. "What he was able to do can't be judged by numbers," said an area scout familiar with the Horned Frogs. "They've got an average quarterback and they run the ball nonstop there. So he might catch four balls, but you have to see the way he plays the pass in the air and how physically dominant he is at the catch point to appreciate his game."
TCU QB Max Duggan passes to Quentin Johnston, who stutter-steps by a defender and speeds 76 yards to the house.
Johnston is a post-up problem for defensive backs, but he also shows a second gear when running away from coverage and would-be tacklers. He has forced 24 missed tackles on catches this season (fourth-most in the FBS), and his 239 receiving yards after first contact rank seventh. His combination of size, strength and speed is why many evaluators are placing him at the top of the receiver class.
NFL comparison: Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals
Best team fits: Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Baltimore Ravens
4. Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee
The 2022 Biletnikoff Award winner and a unanimous All-American, Hyatt jumped onto the scene for Tennessee this season while many were expecting Cedric Tillman or Bru McCoy to become the team's star receiver. Hyatt's rise impressed scouts who saw him in person.
"Hyatt can fly! And guys like that usually jump up the board when it's all said and done. Will Fuller did it. Corey Coleman. ... Jahan Dotson did. Fast guys go early, and he's a legit 4.3 guy," said one NFL area scout who visited Tennessee this season.
Hyatt isn't like a lot of smaller, fast receivers with a 6-foot, 185-pound frame. "I hate comparing people to Tyreek [Hill], but he has that Tyreek ability to turn a screen into a score. And he'll be a nightmare on vertical routes," said one NFL general manager.
The junior caught 67 passes for 1,267 yards and 15 touchdowns this season. And he was particularly incredible against Alabama at midseason. He caught just six balls in that game but finished with 207 yards and five -- yes, five -- trips to the end zone. His 18.9 yards per catch ranks 13th in the country, and his 14 catches on balls thrown at least 20 yards downfield are tied for fourth.
Hyatt isn't just a speed threat, though. His ability to track, attack and adjust for the ball in-flight makes him a certified deep threat. But one evaluator is worried about Hyatt -- and the rest of the Volunteers' offense -- acclimating to the NFL.
"He ran like two routes there: go and screen," the evaluator said. "I think he could struggle to get onto the field depending on where he's drafted."
Despite his limited college route tree, Hyatt is a solid first-round prospect, and I believe he'll put on a show at the combine.
NFL comparison: William Fuller V, free agent
Best team fits: Tennessee Titans, New York Giants, Kansas City Chiefs
5. Zay Flowers, Boston College
Flowers has some of the best feet in college football, and NFL evaluators have taken notice of the 5-foot-10, 172-pound senior.
"If I had to pick a favorite small speed guy, it would be Flowers. His ability to stop and start and accelerate is nice," one NFL general manager told me.
Another GM compared Flowers to Jahan Dotson, who went in the 2022 first round to the Washington Commanders. He said, "He's just so good in the open field. He didn't have much to work with [at quarterback] and still produced."
Flowers certainly produced, pulling in 12 touchdowns on 78 catches and totaling 1,077 yards. He forced 25 missed tackles (third) with his elusiveness, and his 46 first-down catches rank inside the nation's top 20.
When asked where Flowers' draft stock lands, scouts were mixed in their opinions. Two evaluators believe he will ultimately land in the early parts of the second round, but one scouting director thinks Flowers is a late Day 1 pick due to that speed and playmaking ability. I personally have him ranked No. 32 overall, right on the bubble -- but he has a lot of potential to rise.
NFL comparison: Elijah Moore, New York Jets
Best team fits: Chicago Bears, Minnesota Vikings, Buffalo Bills
6. Josh Downs, North Carolina
NFL teams looking for instant impact ability out of the slot will love Downs. The 5-foot-10, 175-pound junior racked up 94 catches for 1,029 yards and 11 touchdowns while lining up on the inside of the Tar Heels' passing game. Downs is quick and has excellent acceleration.
One NFL scout summed up the outlook on Downs: "He's really good if you can get past the size, which I think limits him to a slot-only role. For some teams, that's no problem, and for others it'll push him down the board. He's a safe top-50 guy, though."
Another evaluator praised his ball skills. "Rarely do we see smaller receivers with the ability to play the ball in the air as well as Downs does. I mean, watch him against Clemson or Wake Forest, and tell me he's not a top-32 guy."
Downs had 50 first-round receptions (12th in the country) and hauled in 93.1% of his catchable targets (first among pass-catchers with at least 100 targets).
NFL comparison: Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders
Best team fits: Buffalo Bills, Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys
7. Rashee Rice, SMU
After a 96-catch, 10-touchdown season that saw him average 14.1 yards per catch for 1,355 total yards (third in the country), Rice is no longer a sleeper candidate. One NFL general manager jokingly asked me to not write about him, though, continuing to hope other teams haven't taken notice.
"He definitely made himself some money this year," he said. "We had a Day 3 grade on him before the season, but it feels like he's moved into that top 50 range now. We'll see how he runs, but he has a really good WR2 profile."
Rice's production isn't just a reflection of the SMU offense, too. He has shown a craftiness in his ability to get open off the line of scrimmage and has the quickness to pick up yards after the catch. And he has good size at 6-foot-2 and 203 pounds.
Rashee Rice fights across the goal line to extend the Mustangs' lead.
He is not without his flaws, though. Rice had nine drops this season, tied for the sixth-most in the country, and he has 24 over 44 career games. One area scout said, "I like him a lot, but he dropped too many easy ones for me. You can argue he had more targets so it leads to more drops, but that's the one thing I don't think receivers can really clean up at the next level. It keeps a good receiver from being great."
NFL comparison: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions
Best team fits: Dallas Cowboys, Chicago Bears, Los Angeles Chargers
8. Kayshon Boutte, LSU
The offseason brought two surgeries to repair a right ankle injury, and what was expected to be a breakout 2022 season leading to a Round 1 grade and WR1 candidacy didn't pan out. Boutte finished with 48 catches for 538 yards and two scores, but he failed to have the marquee season that many expected, and his eight drops are tied for 11th-most in the country. His yards per catch over his first two seasons was 15.0 before falling to 11.2 in 2022, and his yards after the catch per reception slid from 7.5 over 2020-21 to 4.8 this year.
"When he's out there, Boutte looks like a star, but he's not been active enough for me to put a [Round] 1 [grade] on him," said one area scout.
Another still liked what he saw from Boutte this year, though. "He has the size and speed package, and plays physically. Before this past year, he was real productive in the red area and had scored a bunch [14 touchdowns over 2020-21]. I chalk a lot of this year up to a new head coach and new offensive system."
Boutte initially announced he would return to LSU for the 2023 season before changing his mind and opting into the upcoming draft class. His 6-foot, 205-pound frame and excellent agility are that of a potential WR2 in the pros, and when he was healthy later in the year, we saw flashes of his great burst and juice that had been missing early in the season. Boutte can push defenders onto their heels with his acceleration and suddenness unlike most bigger receivers. But concerns about his injury and lack of production in 2022 have pushed him to the mid-Day 2 conversation as a prospect.
NFL comparison: Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals
Best team fits: Los Angeles Chargers, Green Bay Packers, Atlanta Falcons
9. Cedric Tillman, Tennessee
The 6-foot-3, 215-pound senior dominated the early parts of the 2022 season -- including a 9-catch, 162-yard day against Pitt -- before suffering an ankle injury in mid-September and struggling to consistently find his way back onto the field. On the year, Tillman caught just 37 passes for 417 yards and three scores over six games, but evaluators see his potential.
"Tillman has WR1 ability, but I want to see him run in person," one scout said. "The injury kept me from seeing him, but he has the size and production profile we want."
Another scout was skeptical, though. "He played in that wide-open, vertical offense that doesn't really translate to what we're doing in the pros. I'm not sure he can separate against NFL cornerbacks without the spacing of the college game."
Tillman did have 1,081 receiving yards and 12 TD catches in 2021. He had eight career catches before breaking out with 64 that year, and his career yards per catch is 14.9. Tillman's ability to outmuscle defensive backs and compete for 50-50 balls is impressive, and if healthy, he will be one of the most anticipated runners at the combine as teams try to determine his true burst and acceleration skills. Right now, Tillman carries a solid top-75 grade.
NFL comparison: DeVante Parker, New England Patriots
Best team fits: New England Patriots, Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers
10. Trey Palmer, Nebraska
Palmer, one of the most explosive receivers in this class, burst onto the scene with 71 catches, 1,043 yards and nine touchdowns in 2022 after catching just 41 passes in the three previous seasons combined at LSU. A change in scheme was huge for Palmer, who recently declared for the draft.
"He's one of the most explosive players in the class," said one scout. "You love his ability to get up the field and win vertically. He has legit deep ball chops, but he's also loose and agile on underneath routes."
Another scout believes Palmer has the chance to develop into a WR1, even if he's not there yet as an all-around player. "He has the athletic profile to be really good. Maybe he starts as your third guy, but [Palmer] could easily develop into more than that," the scout said.
The 6-foot-1, 190-pound junior has a Round 3 grade that could rise with a strong pre-draft showing. NFL teams looking to open up the vertical passing game should take special notice of Palmer, who was a big-play specialist in 2022. He caught 10 balls thrown at least 25 yards downfield this season, tied for the 10th-most in the country.
NFL comparison: Robert Woods, Tennessee Titans
Best team fits: Tennessee Titans, Dallas Cowboys, New England Patriots