The debate over who the top quarterback will be in the 2023 NFL draft has already started. Honestly, it had already started even before the 2022 draft's first pick was announced. Knowing teams have already spent a year in some cases studying the upcoming quarterback class, we decided to ask their opinions of the top players. And the answers might surprise you.
I talked to 12 NFL evaluators and numerous college coaches and studied the 2021 tape of the top draft-eligible quarterbacks for this class to figure out the early QB1 for 2023. As has become commonplace in most draft classes, the order and names listed here could (and should) change as new information becomes available about each player. Some will rise, some will fall and some new names will be introduced throughout the process.
Kenny Pickett was seen as a Day 3 quarterback last year at this time before eventually going No. 20. Before he was the No. 1 overall pick, Baker Mayfield was a Day 3 prospect entering his senior season. And while C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young are the biggest names headed into the season, we can all remember that last year those names were Spencer Rattler (benched at Oklahoma, transferred to South Carolina) and Sam Howell (Round 5 pick).
OK, enough disclaimers. Let's get into this.
C.J. Stroud, Ohio State
HT: 6-3 | WT: 215 pounds
2021 stats: 44 TD, 6 INT, 4,435 yards
First-place votes: 5 of 12
A rival college coach summed Stroud up by saying, "He just doesn't make mistakes. Some might see him as too cautious, but he picks apart defenses with his accuracy and his patience."
Stroud has been criticized for his tendency to give the ball away on run-pass option plays, as it makes the offense predictable and one-dimensional on a play designed to create hesitation in the defense, and that does show up consistently on tape. But is this a coached attribute or something Stroud can develop himself at the next level?
Being utilized as a runner is key as Stroud prepares his game for the NFL and as he makes what's expected to be a Heisman run this year. As is his accuracy outside the hashes. Stroud, who has great arm strength, can push the ball all over the field and should be able to develop his timing and accuracy better to the edges.
"He's the most polished. You worry about that offense and his readiness from a progression standpoint, but his mechanics are clean, and he's a big guy," one NFL scout said.
Stroud and Ohio State are in the running for postseason play and awards. All eyes will be on him as the Buckeyes start the season against a vaunted Notre Dame defense.
Stroud's early NFL comp: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers. Stroud's arm strength is comparable to what we've seen from Herbert, and he has a similarly strong frame with a running ability that could explode in the NFL.
Bryce Young, Alabama
HT: 6-0 | WT: 194 pounds
2021 stats: 47 TD, 7 INT, 4,872 yards
First-place votes: 3 of 12
Young's size is the elephant in the room. Scouts who have seen him in person are doubtful he's near his listed size of 6 feet, 194 pounds. And size is a trait, and as we saw with Pickett's hand size, it will be discussed at length once Young declares for the NFL draft.
One longtime NFL scout said, "He's not Kyler Murray, OK? Kyler is thick throughout his frame. Kyler is short, not small. Young is small."
On the field, it's easy to overlook Young's stature because he's a silky smooth operator with the football in his hands. In his first year as a starter, he won the Heisman Trophy and showed fantastic field vision, touch and anticipation as a thrower. No quarterback in college football last year had a better feel for giving his receivers room to run after the catch, and it showed in his almost 4,900 yards passing.
"He's a point guard. You want guys who can distribute the ball and charge the offense, and he does that," one opposing coach said. "He's a magician with some of those passing angles he finds."
Young might not fit the mold of the modern NFL franchise quarterback because of his lack of size, but his ability to make things happen off-script in and out of the pocket has him on the radar of NFL front offices. He'll get his first major test in 2023 against Texas in Week 2.
Young's early NFL comp: Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals. While Young is considerably leaner than Murray, their style of play is very similar as shorter quarterbacks. Young's field vision and ability to create when the play breaks down is Murray-esque.
Will Levis, Kentucky
HT: 6-3 | WT: 232 pounds
2021 stats: 24 TD, 13 INT, 2,826 yards
First-place votes: 3 of 12
A popular sleeper pick to emerge as the 2023 QB1, Levis has the size and arm strength that teams tend to fall for each year. It's easy to see why he earned three QB1 votes here, with his downfield throwing talent, big arm and ability to create when the play breaks down.
Levis, according to one scout, "would be the clear-cut top quarterback if he had the weapons the other guys do. Easily."
"Kentucky didn't have one offensive player who would start at Ohio State or Alabama last year," an NFL area scout said. "He had to carry this team -- which is what he'll have to do in the NFL, too."
NFL scouts love quarterbacks who overcome adversity or have a chip on their shoulder, and if Levis can elevate the Wildcats' offense again in 2022, he has a real shot to move up this list. There is some concern in NFL circles that the supporting casts at Ohio State and Alabama make the job too easy for Stroud and Young, respectively.
The biggest obstacle for Levis is cutting down on interceptions while keeping his exciting brand of football alive. He excels in pushing the ball down the field, but his love for challenging defenses and fitting balls into tight windows led to 13 picks last year. If he can cut down the ill-advised throws while still playing his "in-your-face" style of quarterback, Levis could indeed wind up QB1.
Levis' early NFL comp: Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders. Levis' arm strength, love for the deep ball and ability to stress defenses with his legs both in and out of the pocket make you feel like you're watching Carr operate the Raiders' offense.
Tyler Van Dyke, Miami
HT: 6-4 | WT: 224 pounds
2021 stats: 25 TD, 6 INT, 2,931 yards
First-place votes: 1 of 12
Van Dyke burst onto the scene with a fantastic 2021 campaign on a Miami team that needed him to step up after D'Eriq King suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. Now Van Dyke will be paired with new head coach Mario Cristobal and offensive coordinator Josh Gattis, forming a trio that many around the NFL believe could push Van Dyke's name up the draft list.
Cristobal, who coached Herbert at Oregon, will be very good for Van Dyke, who has the traits needed to excel at quarterback -- a strong right arm, good mobility and an NFL-ready frame.
"The new offense will modernize what they're doing [at Miami]," one NFL scout said. "I wouldn't be surprised if Van Dyke has a Joe Burrow-like year with a better staff around him."
That's high praise, but the expectations are high with Van Dyke having Zion Nelson at left tackle, Will Mallory at tight end and a good group of receivers around him. He has all the tools to be a franchise quarterback in the NFL. The pressure is on him to prove he can adapt to a new offensive system and carry the Hurricanes for the full season after starting nine games in 2021.
Van Dyke's early NFL comp: Carson Wentz, Washington Commanders. This might not seem like a glowing comparison, but Wentz was the No. 2 pick in the draft and was awarded a massive contract early in Philadelphia. Van Dyke's arm talent, size and ability to pick up tough yards on the ground remind me of an early Wentz.