The 2022 NFL draft is here. Months of evaluating prospects, talking to team personnel, stacking my board and everything else that goes into draft prep concludes with one final mock draft ahead of Thursday night's Round 1.
Remember, these predictions are based on what I think a team will do, rather than what I think it should do. And that's no simple task this year. There will be plenty of surprises in the opening 32 selections, and the intrigue begins right at No. 1 with the Jaguars. Jacksonville, and the teams that follow, will have options, though. This class is stacked with high-caliber players who should slide right into starting spots and make an impact.
But where will those talented prospects end up in the draft? How will the eight teams currently set to have multiple first-round selections approach the board? Who will land a quarterback? And will we see a run on wide receivers in a deep class? Here is my final projection of the opening 32 picks, including a trade. Catch all the action Thursday night, starting at 8 ET on ABC, ESPN and the ESPN App, and follow along live with our NFL Draftcast.
See more: My final rankings
1. Jacksonville Jaguars
Travon Walker, DE, Georgia
As I said on Monday, signs are now strongly pointing to Walker as the top pick. He is versatile, explosive and powerful, and he'd team up with Josh Allen to form a solid edge-rush pairing for new coach Doug Pederson. Michigan edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson -- who was long rumored to be the guy here -- has the production résumé, but Jacksonville is intrigued by Walker's upside and traits. And while taking an offensive tackle isn't out of the question, Wednesday's three-year extension for Cam Robinson certainly made the Jags' direction here much more clear.
2. Detroit Lions
Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan
Detroit might turn in the draft card before commissioner Roger Goodell is even finished reading Walker's name. Landing Hutchinson would be a big win for general manager Brad Holmes and the rebuilding Lions. Hutchinson is my No. 1 overall prospect and would immediately be a leader on the Detroit defense. And he could top the team in sacks as a rookie thanks to his relentless and technically sound approach to rushing the passer.
3. Houston Texans
Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU
In true Las Vegas fashion, Houston is keeping its cards close to its vest. I could see Oregon edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux or NC State tackle Ikem Ekwonu here, but I've heard the Texans are high on Stingley, and they could certainly use a cornerback with his ball skills and massive upside. There is a wide range of opinions about Stingley's game and what he will bring to the NFL, but the ceiling is undeniable. He was one of the best players in the country as a freshman in 2019.
4. New York Jets
Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State
The Jets are going to be playing the value game here, with another pick lined up at No. 10. Cincinnati cornerback Ahmad Gardner would be tempting if things fall this way, and I wouldn't rule out the Jets addressing the edge rush concern now rather than later. But Ekwonu is a mauler who would immediately upgrade the offensive line, and he has the versatility to play all over.
5. New York Giants
Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
I've heard the Giants and the Panthers both love Cross, who is the best pure pass-protector in the entire class. So New York will likely want to first address the line and land its guy ahead of Carolina before looking at other needs at No. 7. Pairing Cross with Andrew Thomas gives the Giants a solid duo, helping put Daniel Jones in the best possible position to succeed in a make-or-break season for the fourth-year quarterback.
6. Carolina Panthers
Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
Neal is nearly impossible to get around in pass protection, and he takes great angles in the run game, which would help spring Christian McCaffrey. The Panthers gave up 52 sacks last season, and while I like what they did on the interior in free agency, offensive tackle is still a need. Quarterback is, of course, also a consideration, but it's just too early, and it doesn't matter who is under center if the team can't keep him upright.
7. New York Giants (via CHI)
Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
It's not often that a team gets good value this high on the board, but the chance to add a true shutdown cornerback might be enough for the Giants to skip out on the pass rush for the time being. And remember, it's possible that cornerback could become the bigger of the two needs if the team's salary-cap concerns forces it to move on from James Bradberry. The Giants can pop the champagne early and celebrate adding two high-level young starters before the sun even sets in Las Vegas.
8. Atlanta Falcons
Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE, Oregon
Atlanta would think long and hard about a wide receiver here -- Ohio State's Garrett Wilson or Southern California's Drake London would be the two to watch -- but it would probably jump at the chance to stop Thibodeaux's slide down the top 10. The Falcons' 18 sacks were No. 32 in the NFL last season -- 11 clear of the second-worst team -- and Thibodeaux explodes off the line. Atlanta can concentrate on wideout in Round 2 with a deep pass-catching group.
9. Seattle Seahawks (via DEN)
Jermaine Johnson II, DE, Florida State
The drop-off at edge rusher after Johnson is steep, and all of the wide receivers are still on the board, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Seattle trade out of this pick. But if the Seahawks can't find a dance partner or opt to stay home, Johnson's high-rev motor, first-step quickness and powerful hands would spark their pass rush. Others to watch, should they fall, include Stingley, Thibodeaux and the top three tackles.
10. New York Jets (via SEA)
Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
The cornerback and edge rusher groups each took an early hit, but the wide receiver class remained untouched through nine picks. So it's a pretty easy move here. Wilson has elite body control and great speed, which would provide quarterback Zach Wilson with a trusty target in the vertical and red zone games. With Ekwonu blocking and plenty of other playmakers already in place, the Jets can look to the Wilson-to-Wilson connection for Year 1 fireworks. As for defensive needs, remember that the Jets have two more picks inside the top 40.
11. Washington Commanders
Drake London, WR, USC
Terry McLaurin had 1,053 receiving yards last season, but no other Washington player broke 400. I love London's ability to box out defenders and come down with tough contested catches, and new Commanders quarterback Carson Wentz would too.
12. Minnesota Vikings
Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
Xavier Woods left in free agency, and Harrison Smith is 33 years old. Hamilton comes at pretty good value, and he has a unique combination of range, size, length and ball skills. Before his knee injury in October, Hamilton picked off three passes.
MOCK TRADE: Dallas skips the line
The Texans already have 10 picks in this draft, but a rebuilding team can never have enough. To make this deal happen, the Cowboys would likely have to send a package in the ballpark of No. 24, No. 56 and a 2023 second-rounder to Houston. (As an aside, I also wouldn't be surprised to see the Texans do the opposite here and move into the top 10 for a wide receiver.)
13. Dallas Cowboys (via mock trade with HOU/CLE)
Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
The Cowboys released La'el Collins this offseason, leaving a hole opposite Tyron Smith. Penning would help buy time for quarterback Dak Prescott in the pocket; but Penning's real value to Dallas might come in the run game, where he truly excels. Eleven spots is quite a jump up the board, but there's a noticeable drop-off at offensive tackle in this class after Penning.
14. Baltimore Ravens
Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia
This is probably the latest that Davis would come off the board. Even after signing Michael Pierce, Baltimore could use a massive, double-team-eating run-stopper like Davis to clog the middle of the field. We all know about his legendary combine workout by now -- I mean, a 4.78-second 40-yard dash at 341 pounds is ridiculous -- and if Davis stays at his current weight, he'll be a nightmare for opponents every Sunday.
15. Philadelphia Eagles (via MIA)
Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
Another year, another first-round wideout for the Eagles. And while Williams is still recovering from a torn left ACL, he is a burner who can beat you over the top in the vertical game or after the catch. Having Williams and DeVonta Smith running routes would ease some pressure on quarterback Jalen Hurts, even though we won't see both wideouts on the field right away.
16. New Orleans Saints (via PHI/IND)
Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
Penning being off the board likely throws a wrench in the Saints' draft-night plans, but they have other issues on offense too. Zero Saints pass-catchers reached 700 receiving yards last season, and the team's No. 1 wideout -- Michael Thomas -- has played seven games over the past two years. Olave is a smooth route runner with soft hands and the wheels to haul in vertical shots.
17. Los Angeles Chargers
Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida
The Chargers opened the checkbook during free agency, and as they signed checks, they checked off big needs. But every team needs three good corners, so despite signing J.C. Jackson in March and drafting Asante Samuel Jr. in the second round last April, Los Angeles would welcome Elam's instincts, versatility, physicality and speed to the mix.
18. Philadelphia Eagles (via NO)
Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
We just projected a game-breaker on offense opposite DeVonta Smith, so how about one on defense opposite Darius Slay? McDuffie is an outstanding tackler with great burst and instincts.
19. New Orleans Saints (via PHI)
Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia
Defensive tackles David Onyemata and Shy Tuttle are only under contract for one more year, so if New Orleans can't find value on the offensive line here, it could very well look to the defensive line. Wyatt finds the ball so quickly and then has the short-area quickness to close in a flash. With the additions of Olave and Wyatt, the Saints would take a step toward catching Tampa Bay in the NFC South -- and as soon as this season.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers
Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
It has been 25 years since the first quarterback came off the board this late (Jim Druckenmiller at No. 26 in 1997), but that speaks to this year's class. And the Steelers aren't complaining. Willis has the biggest arm in the class and can do damage with his legs when he gets out of the pocket. Pittsburgh brought in Mitch Trubisky on a one-year deal, which just means it won't have to immediately force Willis onto the field. There's a lot of upside here.
21. New England Patriots
Devin Lloyd, ILB, Utah
Bill Belichick could use a player like this in the middle of his defense. Lloyd is a safety-turned-linebacker who will make an impact against the run (111 tackles last season), in coverage (four interceptions) and as a pass-rusher (eight sacks).
22. Green Bay Packers (via LV)
Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
No surprise here: The Packers use the pick they acquired from the Davante Adams trade to go get a wide receiver. Burks has a big 6-foot-2 frame, and he is tough to contain after the catch thanks to his field vision and strength. This would put a smile on Aaron Rodgers' face.
23. Arizona Cardinals
Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State
Christian Kirk signed with Jacksonville, but quarterback Kyler Murray -- whose fifth-year option was picked up by Arizona on Wednesday -- would love Dotson's suddenness, speed and reliable hands out of the slot.
24. Houston Texans (via mock trade with DAL)
Tyler Smith, OT/G, Tulsa
I've heard a lot of buzz around Smith this week, and Houston needs an offensive tackle opposite Laremy Tunsil. The Texans have given up at least 44 sacks in five straight seasons. Smith plays with a real edge and will help keep quarterback Davis Mills upright. Not a bad Thursday for Houston, landing two solid players and picking up some additional picks.
25. Buffalo Bills
Breece Hall, RB, Iowa State
The Bills need a cornerback, and perhaps they look at Clemson's Andrew Booth Jr. But they also were No. 25 in the NFL in rushing yards from the running back position -- quarterback Josh Allen obviously padded the overall numbers -- and Hall has breakaway speed, reliable hands and the contact balance to break tackles along the way.
26. Tennessee Titans
Zion Johnson, G/C, Boston College
Center Ben Jones re-signed with Tennessee, but there is still room for improvement at guard, and Johnson is a smooth-moving pass-blocker with versatility. He didn't allow a single sack or pressure in 2021. And as far as wide receiver goes, six are off the board, so Tennessee will probably look to Day 2 there.
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Kenyon Green, G, Texas A&M
The Buccaneers lost interior linemen Ali Marpet and Alex Cappa this offseason (though they added Shaq Mason), and they have to keep 45-year-old quarterback Tom Brady on his feet. Green has the balance and strength to handle power rushers inside.
28. Green Bay Packers
Lewis Cine, S, Georgia
I love Cine's range and instincts on the back end, and he'd fit nicely with what the Packers do on defense. With Adrian Amos' deal voiding after this season, Green Bay could pair Cine with Darnell Savage, assuming it picks up the 2019 first-rounder's option.
29. Kansas City Chiefs (via MIA/SF)
Daxton Hill, S/CB, Michigan
Back-to-back picks for the Chiefs here, and Hill has versatility, a lot of speed and solid ball skills. The signing of Justin Reid shouldn't keep Kansas City from continuing to improve the secondary.
30. Kansas City Chiefs
George Pickens, WR, Georgia
Even with six wide receivers gone, the Chiefs simply can't afford to go to sleep Thursday night without adding one. Pickens missed time in 2021 while recovering from a torn ACL, but he can get off press coverage with his acceleration, and his ability to track the deep ball stands out. That skill set would come in handy with Patrick Mahomes under center and former Chiefs wideout Tyreek Hill suiting up for another team next season.
31. Cincinnati Bengals
Quay Walker, ILB, Georgia
Iowa center Tyler Linderbaum might make sense here, but Cincinnati did quite a bit to fix the offensive line in free agency. Germaine Pratt will be a free agent next year, and Walker has gotten some first-round buzz. Walker would be a difference-maker in the middle of the defense.
32. Detroit Lions (via LAR)
Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh
Yeah, Pickett is still here at No. 32. I wouldn't be surprised to see a team try to trade into Round 1 if he starts to slide this far, but Detroit would obviously take a long look itself, too. The Lions could move on from current signal-caller Jared Goff after this season, and they'd have the fifth-year option on Pickett. A quarterback at the end of the first round and the top prospect in the class at No. 2? A pretty good night for Detroit.