The 2022 NFL draft is just days away from kicking off in Las Vegas. By now every team should know what positions they will target to improve their team.
Rivers McCown, Scott Spratt, Bryan Knowles, Vince Verhei, Cale Clinton, Robert Weintraub, J.P. Acosta and Mike Tanier from Football Outsiders take a look at the biggest need positions for all 32 teams going into Thursday. We evaluated each team and listed its biggest need, a lesser-priority need and a position where there's no need at all. Plus, we name prospects that might make good fits to fill each need and could be a team target.
Many of the descriptions reference Football Outsiders stats which are explained here. The most common is DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, which compares every play of the NFL season to a league average and adjusts based on situation and opponent. You'll also see a lot of DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement), which transforms DVOA into a total stat rather than a rate stat.
Here is our complete team guide to the 2022 NFL draft, starting with the NFC East.
Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
NFC East (McCown)
Dallas Cowboys
Biggest need: Defensive line
The Cowboys were destined to lose some players in free agency up against the cap, but they weren't expecting to lose Randy Gregory to the Broncos until the minute it happened. While they pivoted to Dante Fowler Jr., he wasn't exactly lighting it up in Atlanta before being released. The best thing the Cowboys could do at the moment is plug in another edge rusher, but another interior guy to play with Osa Odighizuwa would also be helpful.
Prospects who might fit: Jermaine Johnson II, David Ojabo
Quiet need: Receiver
Maybe this isn't so quiet after the Amari Cooper trade, but with James Washington here the Cowboys could elect to slow play the situation. That might be a mistake, as the more the Cowboys talk about Michael Gallup's torn ACL the less it sounds like he's going to be ready to provide big snaps in Week 1. Dallas doesn't necessarily need to add a wideout -- they could find a tight end instead to replace Blake Jarwin -- but they should solidify the target situation.
Prospects who might fit: Khalil Shakir, Charlie Kolar
Not a need: Quarterback
Dak Prescott's contract situation is not an issue for the first time in what feels like forever, and the Cowboys already have three backups under contract in Cooper Rush, Ben DiNucci and Will Grier.
New York Giants
Biggest need: Offensive line
To their credit, the Giants made a lot of moves to solidify the offensive line this offseason. They brought in Jon Feliciano, Mark Glowinski and Max Garcia in free agency. They also let Will Hernandez walk. One could still argue that between Garcia, Feliciano and Matt Peart there is not a lot the Giants should believe is settled on the line for now. They're going to be hoping that they can grab an offensive lineman with their two top-seven picks, then looking to plug that lineman in at right tackle to bookend with Andrew Thomas.
Prospects who might fit: Evan Neal, Ikem Ekwonu
Quiet need: Tight end
You may remember that Evan Engram fled to the Jaguars in free agency. You probably don't remember that Kyle Rudolph was here last year, or that he was released this offseason. Almost nobody will know that Kaden Smith was non-tendered. Those were the top three Giants by snap counts at tight end in 2021. They signed Ricky Seals-Jones in free agency, and he is a decent depth tight end, but not someone you want leading off the depth chart at the position. The Giants could be in line to draft a tight end on Day 2.
Prospects who might fit: Trey McBride, Cade Otton
Not a need: Wideout
While they may circle back around to this next year, between Kadarius Toney, Darius Slayton, Sterling Shepard and Kenny Golladay, the Giants are four deep at the position. They'll reevaluate the bigger contracts of Shepard and Golladay after 2021.
Philadelphia Eagles
Biggest need: Wide receiver
It was the biggest need the Eagles had pre-free agency and it remains the biggest need they have after the Eagles weren't involved in any of the major wide receiver movement this year. They did come away with Zach Pascal as a power slot wideout, but Pascal hasn't generated many explosive plays and finished 87th of 91 qualifying receivers in DVOA last season. The Eagles could use a third receiver to finally move beyond the "we're starting Jalen Reagor" era.
Prospects who might fit: Drake London, Treylon Burks
Quiet need: Cornerback
Steven Nelson fled to the Texans in free agency, leaving Darius Slay and Avonte Maddox as incumbents at the position. Backups like Zech McPhearson and Josiah Scott have not exactly proven indestructible in small samples, and these cornerbacks had trouble playing on an island against Tampa Bay in the playoffs. Spending one of the first-rounders or maybe a second-rounder on a corner could both set the Eagles up with depth for next season and bring in someone to serve as an eventual replacement for Slay, who will turn 31 next season.
Prospects who might fit: Kyler Gordon, Roger McCreary
Not a need: Running back
Between Miles Sanders, Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell, the Eagles should be well set to weather injuries at the position. They also eternally appear to have the rights to Jordan Howard, unsigned at the moment, who is a solid backup in his own right.
Washington Commanders
Biggest need: Quarterback
Normally, when we do these follow-up pieces, we have to be cognizant of the noise around the team, and the noise around this team is that it's all but quit evaluating quarterbacks after acquiring Carson Wentz. However, with the way this offseason has unfolded, it feels like the Wentz trade is already a disaster for Washington. Similar quarterbacks like Baker Mayfield and Jimmy Garoppolo remain available and likely won't command anywhere near the two third-round picks -- one that could potentially upgrade to a second -- that Washington spent.
Wentz is a stopgap and the Commanders need to act like it. If they see a quarterback fall to them at 11, and they have a first-round grade on him, they should strike. If a quarterback with a second-round grade is there in the second round, they should strike. We don't think they will. But it's what they would do if they were honest about what Wentz is.
Prospects who might fit: Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder
Quiet need: Wide receiver
With Terry McLaurin's extension the next big item on the agenda, the Commanders need to start surrounding him with more talent. Big free-agent signee Curtis Samuel played just 84 offensive snaps as he struggled with a nagging hamstring injury. Dyami Brown can be a nice deep threat (average depth of target: 16.7 yards) but he had problems creating separation in his rookie season. The Commanders could use another starter to push guys like these two into lower expectation roles.
Prospects who might fit: Chris Olave, Jahan Dotson
Not a need: Defensive line
We could understand the Commanders adding some depth to this unit in the middle rounds. As far as the starting lineup, not many teams project to roll out a better group than Chase Young, Montez Sweat, Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne.
NFC North (Spratt)
Chicago Bears
Biggest need: Wide receiver
The Bears provided rookie quarterback Justin Fields with what on paper looked like reasonable receiver talent in Allen Robinson II and Darnell Mooney in 2021. But Robinson produced the fewest yards per catch of his career (10.8) and his lowest receiving DVOA rate in half a decade (minus-9.2%). And with Robinson now on the Rams, the Bears may need a new No. 1 receiver to effectively evaluate Fields' fitness to be their franchise quarterback. After trading their 2022 first-round pick to the Giants to move up for Fields, the Bears will presumably miss out on the top prospects such as Drake London and Chris Olave. But a deep class should offer the team appealing outside options in the second and third rounds.
Prospects who might fit: Christian Watson, Jalen Tolbert
Quiet need: Offensive tackle
It's a Football Outsiders axiom that quarterbacks are more responsible and offensive linemen are less responsible for sacks than their respective reputations. And the Bears' extreme split of the sixth-best pass block win rate (66%) and worst adjusted sack rate (9.5%) points a finger at rookie quarterback Fields. Still, the Bears shouldn't put all of their eggs in the basket that Fields will make quicker reads and decisions in his second season.
Second-round sophomore tackle Teven Jenkins could be an upgrade over the 40-year-old Jason Peters. But Jenkins has had back problems in college and the NFL. Peters belied his age with a solid 3.1% blown pass block rate in 2021, per Sports Info Solutions charting. And even if Jenkins enjoys a healthy 2022 season, the Bears are poised to start Larry Borom at right tackle. With a 4.7% blown pass block rate, the Day 3 rookie was the weak link of the team's 2021 pass protection. No other Bears lineman with 200 or more pass snaps blew even 3.2% of his pass blocks.
Prospects who might fit: Tyler Smith, Daniel Faalele
Not a need: Running back
David Montgomery's 3.9 career yards per carry presents him as a below-average back, and he'll be a free agent after his rookie contract expires at the end of this season. But Montgomery has always played better than his basic statistics suggest. The Bears have finished in the bottom 10 in adjusted line yards in all three of his seasons. And Montgomery's 10.1% avoided tackle rate per Sportradar charting is the fourth-best among backs with 300 or more carries since 2019. At a minimum, Montgomery is a strong plan at his position for 2022.
Meanwhile, the Bears may have struck oil with their sixth-round running back pick from last year, Khalil Herbert. He finished 15th among 50 backs with 100 or more carries with an 8.7% avoided tackle rate last year. If he can provide an encore of that efficiency in 2022, he would offer an inexpensive succession plan if they let Montgomery leave in free agency.
Detroit Lions
Biggest need: Quarterback
If Matthew Stafford proved the importance of context for quarterback success in his Super Bowl win in his first year with the Rams, you can likely guess how things went for his trade counterpart on the Lions. Jared Goff's minus-3.6% passing DVOA was his lowest since his rookie year in 2016, and it continued a three-year trend of decline from his peak 2017 and 2018 seasons that saw his lone trip to a Super Bowl.
Recent record extensions for quarterbacks such as Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson have rendered Goff's annual contract average of $33.5 million palatable. And Goff may even return to above-average efficiency as the Lions add receiving talent such as DJ Chark Jr. and perhaps a 2022 rookie while Amon-Ra St. Brown enters his second season. The Lions will very likely take a swing at the position in the next year or two. And Goff's standard of competence gives the team the buffer to draft a less-ready but higher-ceiling quarterback such as Malik Willis -- a buffer that a more desperate team such as the Panthers might not have.
Prospects who might fit: Malik Willis, Desmond Ridder, Matt Corral
Quiet need: Linebacker
Lions head coach Dan Campbell knew he inherited a fixer-upper. But the toughness-minded Campbell could not have been thrilled to finish 31st in run defense DVOA, especially after he picked 330- and 295-pound defensive tackles Levi Onwuzurike and Alim McNeil in the second and third rounds of his first draft with the team. Onwuzurike and McNeil were part of the problem. Their struggles held them to just six combined starts. But the Lions also underwhelmed at linebacker, where positional snaps leader Alex Anzalone allowed a 34.8% broken tackle rate -- the highest among players with 25 or more tackles, per Sports Info Solutions charting -- that carried the team to its last-place total of 157 broken tackles. Fourth-round rookie Derrick Barnes showed promise with a 15.4% broken tackle rate, but the Lions need more help after starter Jalen Reeves-Maybin left for the Texans in free agency.
Prospects who might fit: Nakobe Dean, Channing Tindall
Not a need: Offensive line
Campbell can at least take solace in the promise of his inside-out rebuild on offense. Pro Bowl center Frank Ragnow and tackle Taylor Decker missed half of last season with toe and finger injuries that landed the team in the middle of the pack in adjusted line yards (4.09, 21st) and adjusted sack rate (5.8%, 12th). But Ragnow and Decker should both be healthy for offseason team activities. They and fellow starters Penei Sewell, Jonah Jackson and Halapoulivaati Vaitai blew 2.7% or less of their blocks when they played in 2021. And all five are under contract for multiple seasons, Sewell and Jackson on inexpensive rookie deals.
Green Bay Packers
Biggest need: Wide receiver
The Packers could have used another wide receiver last year even when they had the best one in the league in Davante Adams. But after the team traded Adams to the Raiders and lost Marquez Valdes-Scantling to the Chiefs in free agency, its receiver room became barren. Adams and Valdes-Scantling saw 207 of Aaron Rodgers' 415 wide receiver and tight end targets last season. That is just a fingernail shy of 50%. Remaining incumbents Allen Lazard (24.8%) and Randall Cobb (23.5%) were positional leaders in receiving DVOA in 2021 and may offer evidence that Rodgers can transform any group of receivers into a top-10 passing offense. But Lazard and Cobb would likely lose some efficiency if asked to play more featured roles that would earn them greater defensive attention.
Prospects who might fit: Jahan Dotson, Treylon Burks, Justyn Ross
Quiet need: Special teams
The volume of the Packers' need at special teams depends on how vividly you remember the end of their 2021 season when the 49ers returned a blocked punt for a touchdown and later walked off with a field goal with only 10 Packers on the field. In truth, the Packers special teams was a major issue all season. They ranked 32nd in special teams DVOA and were in the bottom eight on field goals and extra points, kickoffs, kickoff returns and punt returns.
New special teams coach Rich Bisaccia may improve the unit with the magic he used as an interim head coach to pull a depleted Raiders roster to the playoffs. But beyond coaching, the Packers may consider targeting proven returner or gunner prospects rather than patching together a unit from whichever bench players end up with fewer offensive or defensive responsibilities.
Prospects who might fit: Marcus Jones, Velus Jones Jr.
Not a need: Offensive line
Most teams would never have survived the Packers' offensive line misfortune from 2021. After losing longtime starters Bryan Bulaga and Corey Linsley to the Chargers in free agency in consecutive offseasons, the Packers saw just one start from All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari and eight starts from standout left guard Elgton Jenkins between injuries.
And yet, the Packers were as excellent as ever up front. They finished top six with 4.79 adjusted line yards and a 5.1% adjusted sack rate. And they finished top five with 73% run block and 66% pass block win rates, standings that suggest those successes had as much to do with the team's remaining linemen as they did Rodgers. The Packers may be the best offensive line talent identifiers and developers in football. Former Day 2 and Day 3 draft picks Royce Newman, Jon Runyan and Josh Myers excelled as new starters with 2.2% or better blown block rates. And they will be back with the team in 2022 to help replace free-agency loss Lucas Patrick and to keep pressure off returning stars Bakhtiari and Jenkins.
Minnesota Vikings
Biggest need: Cornerback
The Vikings planned for their current need at cornerback with first- and third-round picks at the position in 2020. But while their later pick Cameron Dantzler has blossomed into an excellent player -- he led the team with 5 yards allowed per target and a 57.4% coverage success rate, sixth and 25th among qualified corners per Sports Info Solutions charting -- the team released the former pick Jeff Gladney after an assault indictment. Frequent 2021 starters Mackensie Alexander and Bashaud Breeland are also free agents. And while Patrick Peterson returned on a team-friendly one-year deal, he will be 32 years old at the start of this season. The Vikings will soon need a new outside starter even if Dantzler and Peterson stay healthy this year.
Prospects who might fit: Derek Stingley Jr., Roger McCreary
Quiet need: Wide receiver
The Vikings enjoyed a bit better success with their other first-round pick from 2020. Wide receiver Justin Jefferson trailed just Cooper Kupp and Adams with 416 receiving DYAR last year. And at 22 years old, Jefferson is in a battle with his former LSU teammate Ja'Marr Chase for the best value relative to contract at his position. But as good as Jefferson is, he can't carry the Vikings' passing offense by himself. Adam Thielen is a strong No. 2 when healthy, but he has missed time with injuries each of the last three seasons and will turn 32 this offseason. Meanwhile, K.J. Osborn and Ihmir Smith-Marsette are the most heralded other members of the team's receiver room, and they were just fifth-round draft picks. With a new head coach in Kevin O'Connell who is likely to move away from Mike Zimmer's heavy reliance on 12 personnel, the Vikings will presumably want to add some depth at the position.
Prospects who might fit: John Metchie III, Wan'Dale Robinson
Not a need: Quarterback
Vikings fans may have wanted O'Connell and new GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah to move on from Kirk Cousins and start a rebuild. But Cousins has hardly held his team back from playoff success. He has finished 10th or better in passing DVOA the past three seasons with the team. And the Vikings passing offense has finished 12th or better in DVOA the past three seasons. Whether or not his extension's trading of future dead salary cap for current cap space makes the team a contender, Cousins should continue to be an above-average starter in his age-34 and 35 seasons.
NFC South (Knowles)
Atlanta Falcons
Biggest need: Wide receiver
We'd be fine if the Falcons used their first-round pick to try to find Matt Ryan's long-term replacement, but at least current starter Marcus Mariota has starting experience and was in some demand this offseason. He's fine as a bridge until something better comes along, and there's always the chance that Arthur Smith can help him flourish in a new system. Instead, for the biggest need, we turn to the receiving room. With Calvin Ridley suspended for a year for gambling and Russell Gage off to Tampa Bay, Atlanta has the worst receiving corps in football at the moment.
Atlanta entered the offseason with just one receiver under contract who caught a pass in 2021 -- Frank Darby, the special teams gunner who caught exactly one, from Josh Rosen in garbage time against the Cowboys. That necessitated a lot of work, and to their credit the Falcons have been busy. They re-signed Olamide Zaccheaus and brought in Damiere Byrd, KhaDarel Hodge and Auden Tate from outside the organization.
That means the receiving room as a whole caught 74 passes last season for 945 yards. That's fine for one player; it's basically DK Metcalf's 2021 season. But as a receiving room it's a nightmare. Zaccheaus is a fine contributor; he's the only receiver on the roster who has ever had a qualified season with positive receiving DVOA. But he's a nice third receiver or slot guy, not the focal point of an offense. Even with Kyle Pitts continuing to develop, the Falcons simply do not have the makings of an NFL-caliber passing attack; you can't just skate by with journeyman Day 3 picks and undrafted free agents.
Prospects who might fit: Garrett Wilson, Drake London
Quiet need: Defensive tackle
The Falcons basically need one of everything, so "quiet need" is a matter of degrees here. Grady Jarrett is still a fine player but he is on the last year of his deal. Even with him in the lineup, the Falcons ranked 29th in adjusted line yards and 32nd in short-yardage success in 2021 -- they simply could not get any sort of push to stop the run game. With Tyeler Davison released, the Falcons have Marlon Davidson and Ta'Quon Graham penciled in on the line next to Jarrett, and either or both could be improved upon. Given the choice, a five-tech end would likely be more valuable than a nose tackle or three-tech, but the Falcons have enough holes that they could plug any reasonably talented rookie into the lineup.
Prospects who might fit: Perrion Winfrey, DeMarvin Leal
Not a need: Tight end
Pitts was more or less as advertised last season. He didn't quite crack the top 10 rookie tight ends of all time by either DYAR or DVOA, but that's more of a statement on the overall quality of the Falcons' offense than a slam on Pitts, who was the closest thing to a dynamic player Atlanta could roll out a year ago. They still needed a second tight end until April 13, when they added Anthony Firkser to fill out the depth chart. Firkser is coming off his worst season as a pro, but he's far from the worst player in the Falcons' projected lineup.
Carolina Panthers
Biggest need: Quarterback
The trade for Sam Darnold didn't exactly work out. Darnold's minus-588 passing DYAR and minus-31.6% passing DVOA were both the second-worst in Carolina franchise history among qualified passers, better than only 2010 Jimmy Clausen.
There are situational factors in Carolina that you could argue mean Darnold's performance was slightly better than his underlying stats, but it's clear at this point that he is not an NFL starting quarterback, and his poor play in New York was not just a result of being mismanaged by Adam Gase. And since the Panthers used all their midround picks last season trading for Darnold and CJ Henderson, they didn't really have the capital to go out and get a new passer during free agency. This is somewhat less than ideal.
This probably leaves them taking a passer in a draft devoid of surefire talent at the position. As general manager Scott Fitterer has said, at some point you have to take a shot at the position. And with no second- or third-round picks to work with, that pretty much leaves the Panthers swinging at No. 6 regardless of the perceived quality of the class. The question they'll have to answer is whether they swing for the fences with a risky pick such as Malik Willis, or go for the high-floor, low-ceiling option of a Kenny Pickett. The decision will make or break Matt Rhule's tenure.
Prospects who might fit: Malik Willis, Kenny Pickett
Quiet need: Cornerback
The departure of veterans Stephon Gilmore and A.J. Bouye leaves the Panthers thin in the secondary. They did bring back Donte Jackson, so they have three starters at the position, but there's very little behind them. Depth is needed, both for dime packages and in case Jackson, Jaycee Horn or CJ Henderson miss time.
Prospects who might fit: Cordale Flott, Kalon Barnes
Not a need: Running back
When healthy, Christian McCaffrey can still be one of the top running backs in the league. "When healthy" is doing a ton of work as a qualifier there, but to the Panthers' credit, they weren't just going to sit back and hope CMC could stay off the IR. They added D'Onta Foreman, who had very solid numbers replacing an injured Derrick Henry last season. He'll be a much-needed upgrade over Chuba Hubbard, with 0.5% rushing DVOA compared with Hubbard's minus-14.3%.
New Orleans Saints
Biggest need: Wide receiver
Will Michael Thomas be Michael Thomas again? In his first four seasons, there was an argument for Thomas as the best receiver in the NFL -- an Offensive Player of the Year award, two All-Pro selections, three Pro Bowls and four straight seasons in the top five in receiving DYAR. Well, Drew Brees and Sean Payton are gone, and Thomas has missed the past year and a half because of an ankle injury. Perhaps none of that will matter, and Thomas will once again be among the league's best and brightest. In that case, the Saints need only one more receiver.
The Saints currently have Marquez Callaway and Tre'Quan Smith penciled in as starters next to Thomas, with return man Deonte Harty providing depth. None of these players are terrible receivers, per se, but it's a roster filled with third options and complimentary players. Only the Eagles and Browns had fewer receptions from their wide receivers than the Saints had last season. And while the rising tide of a healthy Thomas and Jameis Winston would lift all boats, it would be nice if the Saints had a second receiver who could float on his own.
Prospects who might fit: Chris Olave, Jameson Williams
Quiet need: Edge rusher
The Saints' pass-rush numbers look fine at first glance -- sixth in adjusted sack rate, fifth in quarterback knockdown rate, 13th in pressure rate and eighth in raw sacks. But dip in a little further, and you begin to see cracks. New Orleans ranked just 26th in pass rush win rate at 36%, and 29th in quarterback hurry rate at 8.3%. According to Sports Info Solutions, the Saints had the third-most coverage sacks in the league last season and the eighth-most "untouched rusher" sacks. Only 37% of New Orleans' sacks were charted as blown blocks, where the Saints defender just beat the opposing lineman; that ranked 23rd in the league. No individual Saints defender ranked in the top 30 for pass pressures. Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport are both very good players, but they could stand to have some more help around them.
Prospects who might fit: George Karlaftis, David Ojabo
Not a need: Running back
Alvin Kamara is coming off of his worst season as a pro, but you can blame a lot of that on injury and the second-half quarterback chaos; his numbers from the first half of the season were more respectable. Mark Ingram II is a solid, if unspectacular, option to help keep Kamara fresh, as well. A young big-play threat in the backfield certainly wouldn't go amiss, but the Saints have enough needs everywhere else that they should avoid running backs in this year's class.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Biggest need: Guard
The Buccaneers lost both starting guards this offseason -- Ali Marpet to retirement and Alex Cappa in free agency. They filled one hole by trading for the Patriots' Shaq Mason, but that leaves left guard as the biggest question mark on the roster at the moment.
If they had to play a game right now, Aaron Stinnie would presumably get the start -- he has started one regular-season game and three playoff games in his career in one of the odder splits you'll ever see. Stinnie has played decently when called upon, but he's much more comfortable as a trusted reserve than an every-week starter. At the very least, a high draft pick would be useful as competition.
Prospects who might fit: Kenyon Green, Zion Johnson
Quiet need: Safety
The Buccaneers really don't have many needs for the 2022 season, meaning they can start to plan for the future with most of their mid-round picks. That includes trying to find a long-term answer next to Antoine Winfield Jr. at safety. Jordan Whitehead left in free agency, and Tampa Bay brought in Logan Ryan and Keanu Neal as replacements. That should be fine for this season, but both players are on one-year contracts for a reason. Ryan's 31 years old, and Neal has a lengthy injury history and a lack of success away from Dan Quinn. Drafting someone who could gain experience in 2022 and take over a starting role in 2023 wouldn't be a bad idea.
Prospects who might fit: Jaquan Brisker, Kerby Joseph
Not a need: Quarterback
One day, age will finally catch up with Tom Brady. Presumably. But that is not this day. And even if it does, you could do worse than having a prospect such as Kyle Trask as your backup -- the Buccaneers have to hope he can beat out Blaine Gabbert for the second quarterback spot. At the very least, the Bucs don't have room for a second developmental passer on the roster.
NFC West (Verhei)
Arizona Cardinals
Biggest need: Cornerback
Fourth-round rookie Marco Wilson was one of the worst starting corners in football last year, with a coverage success rate of 39% that ranked 79th out of 81 qualifiers, per Sports Info Solutions. Byron Murphy Jr. was also subpar -- ranking 56th with a rate of 50% -- and none of the backups left on the roster fared any better. Free-agent addition Jeff Gladney comes with a bucket of red flags. The former first-round pick was not good as a rookie with the Vikings in 2020, ranking 70th in success rate, then was released the following preseason after being indicted on domestic violence charges. He was found not guilty in March and signed with Arizona shortly thereafter. It's optimistic to think he will be much of an upgrade at this point.
Prospects who might fit: Andrew Booth Jr., Trent McDuffie
Quiet need: Pass-rusher
With Chandler Jones leaving for Las Vegas in free agency, the Cardinals are counting on production from a pair of aging stars. Markus Golden led the team with 11.0 sacks last season, but he turned 31 in March and has alternated good seasons with bad ones throughout his career. The 33-year-old J.J. Watt had only one sack in seven games in his debut season in Arizona. Devon Kennard, who will also be 31 by the start of the season, steps into Jones' spot on the outside opposite Golden. In 15 games last year, he had zero sacks. Top backups Dennis Gardeck and Victor Dimukeje also failed to record a single sack between them despite appearing in 14 games each.
Prospects who might fit: Kingsley Enagbare, Nik Bonitto
Not a need: Inside linebacker
Arizona used its 2020 first-round pick on Clemson's Isaiah Simmons, then picked Tulsa's Zaven Collins in the first round in 2021. With Jordan Hicks released in March, the path is clear for Simmons and Collins to dominate the interior of the Cardinals' defense for years to come. And should some sort of disaster befall one of the two starters, Arizona signed Nick Vigil in free agency. Vigil has started 51 games in his career (mostly for Cincinnati but also including a dozen last year in Minnesota), making him perhaps the best backup at his position in the league, and certainly the most experienced. Even Joe Walker, the fourth name on the depth chart, started 11 games for the Cardinals in 2019.
Los Angeles Rams
Biggest need: Cornerback
Top corner Jalen Ramsey is as good as it gets, but the rest of the depth chart here is pretty ugly. Darious Williams' departure in free agency leaves David Long as the other starter by default. Long has started only six games in three seasons in the NFL, and his charting numbers last year were awful. His coverage success rate of 47% would not have made the top 60 at his position even he had seen enough targets to qualify. The third corner looks to be Robert Rochell, a fourth-round rookie who played only 234 defensive snaps in 11 games in 2021. And in a tiny sample, his success rate of 40% was even worse than Long's. Also on hand: Grant Haley (a former starter for the Giants who played five games for L.A. last year, but exclusively on special teams) and Tyler Hall (only six defensive snaps in his career, yet somehow has already been burned for 68 yards and a touchdown).
Prospects who might fit: Derion Kendrick, Mario Goodrich
Quiet need: Offensive Line
The Rams lost two starters from their Super Bowl championship team in left tackle Andrew Whitworth (who retired) and right guard Austin Corbett (who signed with the Panthers in free agency). As they are doing at cornerback, L.A. is hoping to find new starters by promoting from within. Joe Noteboom started nine games at left tackle in 2019 when Whitworth went down with a knee injury and held up well enough to earn a three-year, $40 million contract as a new starter at that slot in 2022. The picture at guard is murkier, but 2019 third-rounder Bobby Evans (eight NFL starts, including seven as a rookie) seems to have the early edge over Coleman Shelton (who started one game each at center and guard last year and was re-signed in free agency) and Tremayne Anchrum (a 2020 seventh-rounder with exactly three offensive snaps in his career).
Prospects who might fit: Ed Ingram, Marquis Hayes
Not a need: Wide receiver
All Cooper Kupp did in 2021 was win the receiving triple crown and the Offensive Player of the Year and Super Bowl MVP awards. Now he'll get to play alongside Allen Robinson, who has put up 1,000-yard seasons while catching passes from Blake Bortles, Mitch Trubisky and Nick Foles. He disappointed somewhat last year, but Matthew Stafford will be the best quarterback he has ever played with. Third receiver Van Jefferson went over 800 yards while starting every game last season, and 2021 second-rounder Tutu Atwell should see the field more after being lost in a very crowded depth chart. And Odell Beckham Jr., who remains unsigned after tearing his ACL in the Super Bowl, could rejoin the team at any time.
San Francisco 49ers
Biggest need: Cornerback
It's hard to find holes on a roster that lost only five of the 22 starters from last year's NFC Championship Game. And one of those five losses was at cornerback, where free-agent addition Charvarius Ward should be a big upgrade over the departed K'Waun Williams.
Ward and Emmanuel Moseley look like a fine pair of starters, but you need a good third corner in the NFL in 2022, and the 49ers simply don't have one. Rookies Ambry Thomas and Deommodore Lenoir and journeyman Dontae Johnson each allowed at least 9.6 yards per target last year, which would have put them in the bottom five cornerbacks if they had played enough to qualify, while Darqueze Dennard and Ka'dar Hollman are fringe NFL players at best at this point.
Prospects who might fit: Kaiir Elam, Kyler Gordon
Quiet need: Safety
Jaquiski Tartt is still unsigned, and San Francisco has few options on hand to replace him. The favorite would be George Odum, a former All-Pro special teamer for the Colts. Odum played sparingly on defense in his first three seasons but started seven games last year when Khari Willis and others were out because of injuries. He signed a three-year, $11 million contract with San Francisco in free agency.
Other alternatives include Tarvarius Moore, a third-round draft pick in 2018 who has started 13 games but missed all of 2021 because of a torn Achilles tendon, and Talanoa Hufanga, a fifth-round rookie out of USC last year who played every defensive snap in each of his three starts. At least the 49ers still have Jimmie Ward at free safety ... though it should be noted that Ward turns 31 in July, and that his contract expires in 2023. He will need to be replaced sooner or later.
Prospects who might fit: Kerby Joseph, Bryan Cook, Nick Cross
Not a need: Quarterback
San Francisco's biggest need might actually be a trade partner in search of a passer with Super Bowl experience, because it is in the very rare position of having too much talent at the quarterback position. One year ago, the 49ers made a major trade up to acquire Trey Lance, but getting him onto the field is going to be very difficult with Garoppolo lurking on the sidelines. When the youngster makes a bad mistake, as he inevitably will, it won't help his confidence knowing that fans (and, likely, some teammates) would prefer a switch back to the veteran. Adding a third quarterback in the draft would be a waste of resources that would serve only to muddy the waters.
Seattle Seahawks
Biggest need: Quarterback
In a decade in Seattle, Russell Wilson never ranked any lower than 15th in passing DYAR; he was never worse than an average starter. Now he's gone, and none of the quarterbacks Seattle has under contract -- Jacob Eason, Drew Lock and Geno Smith -- has ever ranked higher than 30th in passing DYAR in 14 combined seasons. Lock won four of five starts as a rookie in 2019, but he followed that by leading the league in interceptions in 2020 and getting benched for Teddy Bridgewater in 2021. Seattle does have a top-10 draft pick, but unfortunately it comes amid the weakest quarterback class in the past decade or so. This figures to still be Seattle's biggest need when previewing the 2023 draft.
Prospects who might fit: Kenny Pickett, Malik Willis
Quiet need: Offensive tackle
This is not actually a quiet need. It is a screaming-loud, cacophonous need. Seattle has two offensive tackles under contract, both rookies in 2021. The first is Jake Curhan, who went undrafted out of Cal before playing in 15 games for the Seahawks, starting each of the last five. Per Sports Info Solutions, he was credited with one blown block every 16.2 offensive snaps, the worst rate of 191 qualified offensive linemen last season.
The other is Stone Forsythe, a sixth-round draftee out of Florida, who played only 14 offensive snaps in 10 games. Last year's starters, Duane Brown and Brandon Shell, remain unsigned, but if a reunion were in the cards, it likely would have happened by now.
Prospects who might fit: Charles Cross, Bernhard Raimann
Not a need: Running back
Rashaad Penny finally broke out in his fourth season, averaging an NFL-best 6.3 yards per carry and running for 130 yards or more in four of his last five games. Seattle re-signed him to a one-year, $5.8 million deal. Chris Carson is expected to make a full recovery from his neck injury and join Penny in a thunder-and-lightning backfield. The Seahawks also have DeeJay Dallas and Travis Homer, who combined for over 600 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns in 2021. This is clearly the deepest position on Seattle's roster, but don't be surprised if the Seahawks add another back in the draft -- they have done so in five of the past six years.
AFC East (Clinton)
Buffalo Bills
Biggest need: Cornerback
The Bills boast one of the most complete rosters in football, so they don't have many glaring needs on their roster. The acquisitions of Tim Settle, Rodger Saffold III, Von Miller and Shaq Lawson were fine-tuning adjustments typically made by preseason Super Bowl contenders. It's a luxury to have such a well-rounded roster, but every team has its flaws.
With Levi Wallace walking in the offseason, the cornerback spot opposite Tre'Davious White is up for grabs. Taron Johnson and Dane Jackson proved sufficient in a pinch after White went down with a torn ACL in Week 12, allowing 5.4 and 7.8 yards per pass attempt respectively. The only issues? Jackson's contract is up after this year, and the Bills have an out in Johnson's contract before his cap hit doubles for the next two years. This is the prime opportunity to add cost-effective, top-end talent alongside White before Josh Allen's big extension begins in 2023.
Prospects who might fit: Kaiir Elam, Trent McDuffie
Quiet need: Wide receiver
Buffalo has a solid core of receivers locked in for the foreseeable future. Stefon Diggs' new extension runs through 2027. Late-season breakout star Gabriel Davis is still on his rookie contract, and the Bills showed their faith in Isaiah McKenzie by re-signing him and releasing Cole Beasley this offseason. That trio should be competitive, and Jamison Crowder provides a bit of depth at the position.
Is it enough offensive firepower for the team that ran the most five-wideout sets and second-most four-wideout sets in 2021, per Sharp Football Stats? To totally shore up the position and remain competitive with the rest of the AFC, Buffalo likely needs one more pass-catcher to compliment Allen. With the depth and variety of skill at the receiver position in this year's draft, the Bills have options. Whether they pick up someone who can thrive over the middle or a contested-catch phenom, one more receiving target could make the Bills an offense no one wants to line up against.
Prospects who might fit: Treylon Burks, Skyy Moore
Not a need: Defensive tackle
One blustery Monday night in December was all the proof Brandon Beane needed to fix Buffalo's run defense. The Bills' defense led the league in total DVOA but ranked 11th in run defense DVOA because of holes in the interior defensive line. What better way to plug said holes than throwing Settle, DaQuan Jones and Jordan Phillips at the problem? With the attention (and money) paid to the position this offseason, Buffalo's draft capital is best spent elsewhere.
Miami Dolphins
Biggest need: Linebacker
The Dolphins addressed most of their biggest offensive needs with their wallet, offering massive paydays to Terron Armstead and Tyreek Hill. Most of the money spent on Miami's defense went toward bringing back its own. Xavien Howard signed an extension, while Emmanuel Ogbah, Duke Riley and Elandon Roberts all re-signed with the Dolphins.
While the secondary and defensive line are set, linebacker remains a question mark. Jerome Baker and Jaelan Phillips are solid prospects at the position, but the majority of Miami linebackers are veterans on one-year deals. Riley, Roberts, Andrew Van Ginkel and Sam Eguavoen all have deals expiring after the 2022 season. These four are stopgaps while Baker and Phillips continue to develop. Add a third rookie to the mix, and the Dolphins will have a pipeline of young talent ready to roam the middle of the field.
Prospects who might fit: JoJo Domann, D'Marco Jackson
Quiet need: Offensive tackle
Just because Miami signed the best tackle in free agency doesn't mean the job is over. While signing Terron Armstead shores up the left tackle spot, right tackle is all but vacant. The position is currently slotted to Austin Jackson, who played mostly left guard last season. Sports Info Solutions registered Jackson with 29 blown blocks on 1,097 snaps, averaging 37.8 snaps per blown block in 2021. That number was up from 27.4 snaps per blown block in 2020, when Jackson played left tackle his rookie year. Jackson would be on his third position in three years; Miami is better positioned to take a Day 2 tackle and convert Jackson to a plug-and-play backup role.
Prospects who might fit: Alec Lindstrom, Rasheed Walker
Not a need: Running back
The Dolphins are entering this draft without much draft capital after sending it all to Kansas City for Hill. While Miami finished the 2021 season with the fourth-worst offensive rushing DVOA, it made upgrades at the position in free agency. Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert and Myles Gaskin should be enough manpower to work Mike McDaniel's new run-heavy system. Put off bringing in any new running backs until there's draft capital to spend.
New England Patriots
Biggest need: Cornerback
The debate over New England's biggest need this year can be boiled down to cornerback and wide receiver. While the Patriots certainly need a top pass-catcher on their roster, the trade for DeVante Parker gives New England a small buffer before figuring out the next move.
Cornerback, however, is a desperate need for the Patriots. New England ranked fourth in defensive DVOA in 2021, helped by its third-best minus-12.6% defensive passing DVOA. Most of that production came from shutdown cornerback J.C. Jackson, who bolted for the Los Angeles Chargers this offseason. Signing Super Bowl XLIX hero Malcolm Butler might buy New England's front office some brownie points, but Butler sat out all of last year after retiring in late August. Jalen Mills allowed a 46.9% completion percentage and notched 14 pass breakups in 2021, according to Sports Info Solutions charting data, but Mills faced mostly secondary receiving options last year.
The positional downgrade gets magnified by New England's divisional schedule. Covering Stefon Diggs and Tyreek Hill twice a year is hard enough, but doing it without a bona fide top-end cornerback makes it seem like a herculean task.
Prospects who might fit: Kyler Gordon, Andrew Booth Jr.
Quiet need: Linebacker
The days of a Belichick defense boasting big, bruising linebackers might be behind us. The 2021 Patriots defense looked a half-step too slow at points last year, and that can only spell trouble as the NFL gets faster. The Patriots traded Chase Winovich for Mack Wilson, a 6-foot-1, 233-pound linebacker who might be a harbinger of things to come for New England's defense.
Wilson's arrival, coupled with the departure of New England mainstays Dont'a Hightower and Jamie Collins, highlights the Patriots' need to add range and speed to the middle of their defense.
Prospects who might fit: Nakobe Dean, Chad Muma
Not a need: Tight end
New England has spent the past two offseasons trying to revitalize the tight end position. Have any of these moves worked? Beyond Hunter Henry's 25.8% receiving DVOA in 2021 (second among tight ends), not quite. The Patriots' 2020 draft picks Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene have combined for 12 career targets in two years. While Henry excelled, Jonnu Smith's minus-28.1% receiving DVOA in 2021 ranked 54th out of 55 qualified tight ends. According to Spotrac, the Patriots have a combined $31.1 million cap hit for four tight ends in 2022. That's by far the most money committed to the position in 2022. Whether or not the moves have worked, these are the tight ends New England is stuck with next season.
New York Jets
Biggest need: Cornerback
The Jets are still in a rebuild, so they can go several different directions with their two first-rounders. Both wide receiver and edge rusher are big needs for the Jets, but no position represents a more pressing need for the Jets than cornerback.
Defensive-minded head coach Robert Saleh has his work cut out for him, especially after finishing his rookie campaign dead last in both total defense DVOA and pass defense DVOA. The Jets' leading cornerbacks -- Bryce Hall, Brandin Echols, Michael Carter II and Javelin Guidry -- allowed completion percentages ranging from 54.3% to 66.7% when targeted, surrendering a combined 1,748 yards and nine touchdowns, according to Sports Info Solutions. Beyond Hall -- who can be a fine second cornerback alongside the right player -- the Jets have no other quality options to defend the pass.
The addition of D.J. Reed this offseason can add depth, but this position group needs an injection of young talent. With the draft's best secondary options lining up with the Jets' two top-10 picks, this seems like a perfect match of need and opportunity.
Prospects who might fit: Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner, Derek Stingley Jr.
Quiet need: Linebacker
As stated above, the whole defense could use an overhaul. While cornerback and edge rusher have gotten the most attention thus far, the Jets' hole at linebacker has flown quietly under the radar. C.J. Mosley looked great in stretches last season, but between a COVID-19 opt-out and a groin injury, he has played just 18 games in three seasons with the Jets. According to Spotrac, the Jets have an out in Mosley's contract in 2023, which would save them from paying him a $17 million base salary the next two seasons.
Beyond Mosley, the Jets lack starting-caliber linebackers and have drafted one linebacker since 2017 (Jachai Polite, 2019). The position is in dire need of an overhaul; with four picks in the top 38, what better time than now?
Prospects who might fit: Devin Lloyd, Leo Chenal
Not a need: Interior offensive line
The Jets have some questions on their offensive line, but most revolve around the enigmatic Mekhi Becton and whether he can bounce back in a pivotal year. Unlike the tackle spots, the Jets' interior offensive line is solid. New York hit a home run last year by drafting Alijah Vera-Tucker, whose 41.0 snaps per blown block were second only to center Connor McGovern, who boasted 60.8 snaps per blown block. The Jets also signed Laken Tomlinson in free agency, rounding out a beefy trio poised for a strong season.
AFC North (Weintraub)
Baltimore Ravens
Biggest need: Pass-rusher
In a division that features pass-rushers such as T.J. Watt, Myles Garrett and Trey Hendrickson, Baltimore counters with ... Tyus Bowser and his seven sacks.
Overall, the Ravens managed just 34 sacks and an adjusted sack rate of 5.3%, tied for 31st in the NFL. Those are shockingly bad numbers for a team with a history of going after quarterbacks. Rookie Odafe Oweh flashed some promise (five sacks, 40 pressures), but otherwise the line comprises aging Calais Campbell and banged-up Derek Wolfe. The Ravens' assembly line ability to develop pass-rushers has thrown a gasket. For the first time since Haloti Ngata in 2006, Baltimore could pick a defensive lineman in the first round (No. 14 overall), with the emphasis this time on an edge rusher.
Prospects who might fit: Jermaine Johnson II, George Karlaftis, Boye Mafe
Quiet need: Offensive line
The status of left tackle Ronnie Stanley -- whose injured knee has cost him most of the past two seasons -- hangs over the 2022 Ravens. Alejandro Villanueva was not a worthwhile replacement last year (35 blown blocks, 10 penalties), and Bradley Bozeman, the solid center, left in free agency. Morgan Moses (33 blown blocks with the Jets in 2021) was brought in at right tackle, but the overall unit needs more players with strong physical traits, whether or not Stanley can return to his All-Pro form -- or even play.
Prospects who might fit: Trevor Penning, Tyler Linderbaum
Not a need: Safety
What was an area of concern in 2021 was filled in free agency, when the Ravens spent the bulk of their available dough on signing Marcus Williams, late of New Orleans. Entering his age-26 season, Williams (who set career highs in tackles and pass breakups in 2021) is the rangy centerfielder the Ravens lacked, and he should team well with banger Chuck Clark to form a dynamic duo in the defensive backfield. Last year's third-round pick Brandon Stephens and veteran Tony Jefferson provide strong depth.
Cincinnati Bengals
Biggest need: Defensive back
The starting trio of Chidobe Awuzie, Mike Hilton and Eli Apple are all back, but the Bengals surely would like to add talent and youth to the group that ranked only 24th against the pass by DVOA. At safety, Jessie Bates III seems likely to play 2022 on the franchise tag, while tag-team partner Vonn Bell is in the final year of his contract. One or both might need replacing after this season, so an early pick at that position is not just warranted but necessary.
Prospects who might fit: Kaiir Elam, Andrew Booth Jr., Jaquan Brisker
Quiet need: Defensive line
Part of the explanation for the poor pass defense DVOA noted above was the lack of consistent pass rush. Despite 42 sacks, including a double-digit sack season from Trey Hendrickson and solid pressure (55 of them) from Sam Hubbard, the Bengals' adjusted sack rate was just 19th in the league. Inside, the loss of Larry Ogunjobi in free agency (presuming he doesn't return after failing a physical in Chicago) leaves a hole at 3-technique tackle. B.J. Hill was excellent but can't fill the role alone, and the Bengals need inside push in their pass rush.
Prospects who might fit: Logan Hall, Boye Mafe, Drake Jackson
Not a need: Wide receiver
When the Bengals went with Ja'Marr Chase over an offensive lineman with the fifth overall pick a year ago, they filled out a dominant three-receiver base set that the team rode all the way to Super Bowl LVI. Chase won Offensive Rookie of the Year while setting the franchise record for receiving yards. Meanwhile, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd were hardly forgotten -- indeed, Higgins actually out-DYAR'd Chase, 334-326 (good for fifth and sixth in the NFL), while Boyd put up 828 yards and five touchdowns from the slot. The trio was mostly healthy in 2021, and depth is a concern should injury strike, but that's a Day 3 problem.
Cleveland Browns
Biggest need: Defensive line
For the second straight season, the group around All-Pro anchor Myles Garrett is being overhauled. End Jadeveon Clowney, who turned in a solid season on a prove-it deal (nine sacks, 16 tackles for loss, 52 pressures) remains on the market; even should he return to Cleveland for a season, he isn't a long-term answer. Takkarist McKinley tore an Achilles and apparently isn't in Cleveland's plans. The matching set of Maliks at tackle, Jackson and McDowell, are gone for differing reasons. The Browns brought in a couple of castoffs, Chase Winovich and Taven Bryan, and youngsters Jordan Elliott and Tommy Togiai will get their chances inside. But when the Browns are on the board on Day 2 (after the Deshaun Watson trade erased their first-rounder), D-line will be in their sights.
Prospects who might fit: DeMarvin Leal, Perrion Winfrey, Cameron Thomas
Quiet need: Wide Receiver
The acquisition of Amari Cooper alleviated the gaping hole left by the trade of Odell Beckham Jr., at least to a point. But Cooper, who was 23rd in the NFL in DYAR in 2021, can be targeted only so often. Who will catch the rest of Watson's tosses remains an open question. Jarvis Landry is unsigned and could return, but he is a short-term fix at best. Donovan Peoples-Jones had a poor sophomore campaign, and the wideout corps as a whole was beset by drops last year. The draft is deep once more in receivers, and the Browns will look to inject some new talent on the perimeter.
Prospects who might fit: George Pickens, John Metchie III
Not a need: Quarterback
The acquisition of Watson fills a hole the franchise has been unable to address with any certitude since the team returned to Lake Erie in 1999. Watson's availability and status with the league still remains unclear after 22 lawsuits were filed against him alleging sexual assault and inappropriate conduct during massage sessions. Jacoby Brissett provides a quality backup should Watson be suspended by the NFL.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Biggest need: Wide receiver
The Steelers have a reputation for drafting quality wideouts, but that has taken a hit of late, perhaps due to the collapse in effectiveness of the now-retired Ben Roethlisberger. JuJu Smith-Schuster has departed in free agency, leaving a hole in the slot. Diontae Johnson had a good rebound season after a miserable 2020, but Chase Claypool regressed badly from a promising rookie year.
Right now, the starting slot receiver is slated to be Anthony Miller, cast off from multiple teams in the past year. Pittsburgh will probably draft a pair of receivers in a deep draft, and with the lack of both talent and depth on the roster, they will be needed.
Prospects who might fit: Jahan Dotson, Drake London, Skyy Moore
Quiet need: Defensive line
Despite the high quality of Pittsburgh's pass rush (first in the NFL in sacks in 2021), the state of the defensive front three is surprisingly shaky. Cam Heyward is a stalwart, but Stephon Tuitt (entering his age-29 season) and Tyson Alualu (age-35 season) are being counted on to return after a year on the sidelines. Even with their returns, the depth and long-term outlook of the defensive front need fortification.
Prospects who might fit: Devonte Wyatt, Cameron Thomas, Phidarian Mathis
Not a need: Edge rusher
Between Watt, Heyward and Alex Highsmith (48 pressures), the Steelers can get after the passer. It is perhaps the lone area the team can rely on entering the 2022 season. Granted, there was some falloff last year. After finishing first in adjusted sack rate an amazing four years in a row, the Steelers dropped last season -- all the way to second.
AFC South (Acosta)
Houston Texans
Biggest need: Cornerback
The Texans need help everywhere, but cornerback is a particularly strong position of need. They finished 22nd in defensive DVOA against the pass, including 23rd against passes on the offensive left side and dead last against passes on the offensive right side. In Lovie Smith's Tampa 2, zone-heavy defense, a corner who has good instincts and is physical enough to man the flat is important. Locking down one side of the field helps the pass rush as well. Steven Nelson is a useful veteran addition but a stellar young cornerback could unlock that entire defense.
Prospects who might fit: Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner, Derek Stingley Jr.
Quiet need: Pass-rusher
Because the Texans play a lot of Tampa 2, they do not blitz often -- ranking 30th in the NFL in blitz rate, according to Pro Football Reference. They need pass-rushers who can consistently manufacture pressure on their own, without the help of blitzes. Jacob Martin led the team in pressures this past season, then left for the Jets in free agency. The Texans re-signed Maliek Collins to help out on the interior, but they need a true franchise pass-rusher: someone who can not only get pass rush for himself but elevate the play of others along the defensive line as well. In a conference now with elite quarterbacks that the Texans will be staring down for the next few years, being able to get to the passer is paramount.
Prospects who might fit: Travon Walker, Jermaine Johnson II
Not a need: Quarterback
Dare we say it: Davis Mills might be all right? Mills threw for 2,664 passing yards and 18 touchdowns in his rookie year but was often sunk by a porous offensive line and bad wide receiver play. Perhaps the Texans are in a similar spot to the Jaguars when they were entering the 2020 season with Gardner Minshew as their starter. They can surround Mills with talent to see if he truly is the guy under center.
If it works, then the Texans have a quarterback. If it doesn't work and the Texans bottom out, the 2023 quarterback class is strong. But there isn't a real need this year to address the quarterback position, especially in a draft class that doesn't have the high-tier talent to justify it.
Indianapolis Colts
Biggest need: Offensive line
The Colts have built a reputation for having one of the best offensive lines in the entire league over the past few years, but last year they saw a steep decline, dropping from 12th to 20th in ESPN's pass block win rate. In addition, their runs were stuffed for a loss or no gain at the third-highest rate in the NFL.
This offseason, the Colts lost Mark Glowinski to the Giants, and they have not re-signed Eric Fisher, Julie'n Davenport or Sam Tevi. Matt Ryan isn't exactly nimble in the pocket, and in order to get the most they can out of their offense, protecting Ryan and opening lanes for Jonathan Taylor are pivotal.
Prospects who might fit: Bernhard Raimann, Darian Kinnard
Quiet need: Wide receiver
The Colts are in an interesting spot entering the NFL draft. They traded Wentz away in the offseason and replaced him with Ryan, and then signed Rodney McLeod and Gilmore to upgrade their secondary. However, the Colts still need explosiveness at the wide receiver spot. The Colts lost Zach Pascal in free agency, and T.Y. Hilton still hasn't re-signed. The Colts didn't have a receiver last year finish in the top 30 of DVOA among wideouts, and while Michael Pittman Jr. is good, they need another receiver to complement his playing style.
Prospects who might fit: Skyy Moore, Khalil Shakir
Not a need: Defensive Line
The Colts added to their defensive line talent by trading corner Rock Ya-Sin to the Raiders for pass-rusher Yannick Ngakoue, who experienced a resurgence in 2021, recording 34 pressures opposite Maxx Crosby. Now he'll get to rush the passer with DeForest Buckner and rising young edge defender Kwity Paye. The Colts are also high on Dayo Odeyingbo, whom they took in the second round despite his Achilles tear during NFL draft prep last year. All of this combines to suggest that the Colts will probably not be using their premium picks on someone along that defensive front.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Biggest need: Wide receiver
You've all seen the memes of former Jaguars head coach Urban Meyer not remembering which players were in the game, as well as other antics on and off the field that made football in Jacksonville look something less like football and more like aimless buffoonery. This was particularly a problem in the wide receiver room, where the Jaguars led the NFL in drops and regularly saw receivers run into each other in passing situations. Now, they've done some work to address that in free agency, signing Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, but those two are primarily inside receivers. The Jaguars need an outside threat who can grow with QB Trevor Lawrence and provide a different play style than the other receivers on the roster.
Prospects who might fit: George Pickens, Alec Pierce
Quiet need: Running back
The Jaguars have two quality running backs on the roster already in James Robinson and Travis Etienne Jr. (last year's 25th overall pick), but both are coming off serious foot injuries -- Robinson tore an Achilles in December against the Jets, and Etienne suffered a Lisfranc injury before the season even began. Neither player is a sure thing to be ready for Week 1 this upcoming year, and even if they do play, it's unsure if they'll be back to the players they were before. The Jaguars should be interested in a few backs, especially in new head coach Doug Pederson's offense.
Prospects who might fit: Hassan Haskins, James Cook
Not a need: Cornerback
This is really kind of a stretch considering the Jaguars need help simply almost everywhere, but one thing that mock drafts have been doing is sending a cornerback to the Jaguars early. We simply don't think this will be the case, especially with the way the Jaguars addressed free agency. Tyson Campbell played very well near the end of his rookie season, and Shaquill Griffin just signed a large contract last year. In addition, the Jaguars signed Darious Williams away from the Rams to give themselves inside/outside cornerback versatility. There just simply isn't a need at the position to warrant drafting a corner early, especially with larger holes pretty much everywhere else.
Tennessee Titans
Biggest need: Wide receiver
Quick, name a wide receiver for the Titans not named Robert Woods or A.J. Brown! That's the problem the Titans have run into the past few seasons. Brown is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, and Woods' versatility should mesh well with Brown's YAC-heavy, in-breaking route style. However, Woods is 30 years old and is coming off of a torn ACL, and Brown has been hampered by injuries the past two seasons, never playing a full season. The Titans could use some more depth at the position while Woods is on the shelf, and another receiving threat who can mesh with Brown's and Woods' talents.
Prospects who might fit: Treylon Burks, Christian Watson
Quiet need: Offensive line
The offensive line was a sore spot for Tennessee this year, despite winning its division and getting the No. 1 seed. The Titans finished middle of the pack (16th) in adjusted line yards and had the eighth-highest adjusted sack rate in the entire league. In addition, Ryan Tannehill was sacked 47 times, seventh most in the NFL.
On top of that, the offensive line unit struggled to stay healthy. A majority of the unit, including left tackle Taylor Lewan, missed time during games or missed games in general. The Titans had to release Rodger Saffold due to cap constraints but held on to Ben Jones, who didn't miss a game at center last season. Dillon Radunz was a highly drafted rookie last year, but his role is still unclear heading into the 2022 season. In order to maximize the title window the Titans have open right now, the offensive line needs to get back into its 2019 form (fourth in adjusted line yards).
Prospects who might fit: Kenyon Green, Tyler Smith
Not a need: Defensive front
Harold Landry III signed a massive five-year, $87.5 million extension this offseason, after posting a career high in sacks and tackles for loss. Bud Dupree will be in his second year post-ACL injury and rounding back into form. In addition, the duo of Denico Autry and Jeffrey Simmons is one of the best when it comes to pass-rushing from the interior. Simmons had a breakout year, racking up 34 pressures and 8.5 sacks. Autry actually had more pressures than Simmons, and Landry and is the perfect complement to both of these Titans stars. Some depth would be useful, but the starting positions are strong.
AFC West (Tanier)
Denver Broncos
Biggest need: Defensive line
The Broncos solved most of their biggest offseason problems already, not just by trading for Russell Wilson but by adding edge rusher Randy Gregory and defensive tackle D.J. Jones in free agency. But while Jones makes up for the loss of Shelby Harris in the Wilson trade, the Broncos remain thin on the interior defensive line.
The Broncos' run defense ranked 24th in adjusted line yards in 2021. Opposing rushers were stuffed for no gain or a loss on just 13% of carries, the third-lowest figure in the NFL. The big names will be long off the board, but some rugged, versatile interior linemen will still be available when the Broncos finally get their chance to select 64th overall.
Prospects who might fit: Perrion Winfrey, Matthew Butler
Quiet need: Tight end
Noah Fant was part of the Wilson trade. Albert Okwuegbunam has outstanding tools and caught 33 passes last season, but Eric Tomlinson, a 30-year-old special teams ace with two receptions in the past three years, is currently listed as the Broncos' TE2. The Broncos could use second tight end who is ready for an immediate role and can block a little bit.
Prospects who might fit: Jake Ferguson, Grant Calcaterra
Not a need: Wide receiver
KJ Hamler is expected back from his 2021 ACL tear by the start of the season. Jerry Jeudy has been playing catch in Wilson's backyard. Courtland Sutton looks like the ideal target for Wilson's deep shots, and Tim Patrick is ready to once again step up as soon as something goes wrong. The Broncos might have the deepest receiver corps in the AFC West.
Kansas City Chiefs
Biggest need: Cornerback
Charvarius Ward, the Chiefs' best cornerback in 2021, signed with the 49ers as a free agent. Ward allowed just a 44.8% completion rate when targeted, the third-lowest figure in the NFL among defenders targeted 50-plus times. Opposing quarterbacks recorded just a 60.5 rating when targeting Ward, the ninth-lowest figure in the league. Mike Hughes, who started opposite Ward for much of the second half of the 2021 season, also left Kansas City as a free agent.
L'Jarius Sneed, Rashad Fenton and DeAndre Baker are currently the projected 2022 starters: not terrible, but not exactly equipped to stop the Bills or Bengals when it matters, either.
Edge rusher is also a huge Chiefs need -- "defense" is essentially a huge Chiefs need -- but ring-seeking veteran edge rushers will be available at affordable prices after the draft. The Chiefs need someone they can play at cornerback for the next five years. Fortunately, some solid prospects will still be on the board when they pick 29th and 30th overall.
Prospects who might fit: Andrew Booth Jr., Kaiir Elam
Quiet need: Tight end
Travis Kelce finished second among NFL tight ends in receiving DYAR last year. But Kelce is 32 years old and recorded his lowest reception, yards and yards-per-reception totals since 2017. Top backup Blake Bell, who re-signed with the Chiefs in the offseason and turns 31 in August, has just 58 career receptions and is best known for his short-yardage Wildcat quarterback misadventures.
With top receiver Tyreek Hill gone, the Chiefs might need to downshift into 12 personnel more frequently and/or ask even more of Kelce and their other tight ends in the passing game. This is a deep class at that position, and some seam-stretchers and high-upside prospects will still be on the board for the Chiefs to select with the 50th, 62nd or 94th pick.
Prospects Who Might Fit: Greg Dulcich, Jelani Woods, Isaiah Likely
Not a need: Offensive line
The Chiefs' offensive line ranked eighth in adjusted line yards and fourth in adjusted sack rate. It was also the fourth-youngest offensive line in the NFL, according to Football Outsiders' snap-weighted age metrics, thanks in part to rookies Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith. If the Chiefs can fix their defense this year the way they fixed their offensive line in 2021, rumors of their decline will prove greatly exaggerated.
Los Angeles Chargers
Biggest need: Right tackle
Bryan Bulaga, last year's expected starter at right tackle, suffered a core muscle injury in the 2021 opener and was lost for the season. The Chargers released Bulaga in March. Storm Norton, Beluga's replacement in 2021, finished third worst in the NFL with 42 blown blocks, according to Sports Info Solutions charting.
Tackle talent is plentiful in the 2022 draft class, though the tackle-needy Saints leapt over the Chargers when they acquired the 16th overall pick from the Eagles. With no second-round pick because of the Khalil Mack trade, don't be surprised if the Chargers trade down in the first round if they cannot nab a top tackle prospect, such as Mississippi State's Charles Cross or Northern Iowa's Trevor Penning. By trading down, they could dip into a deep pool of maulers who might be better suited for right tackle than left without reaching, and they could fill another need for good measure.
Prospects who might fit: Tyler Smith, Daniel Faalele
Quiet need: Defensive tackle
The Chargers' run defense ranked 30th in DVOA in 2021, and their inability to stop the run manifested itself at the worst moments (late-season Texans and Raiders losses) and in high-leverage situations (they ranked 26th in DVOA for goal-to-go defense).
They added defensive tackle Sebastian Joseph-Day in free agency but spent most of their offseason upgrading their pass defense with edge rusher Mack and cornerback J.C. Jackson. Sure, 10-yard gashes up the middle now and then won't matter much if opposing quarterbacks keep enduring strip-sacks and interceptions, but the Chargers should invest in just a little more beef on their interior defensive line.
Prospects who might fit: Neil Farrell Jr., Eyioma Uwazurike
Not a need: Edge rusher
Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa? Yeah, that'll do.
Las Vegas Raiders
Biggest need: Offensive line
Kolton Miller has left tackle locked down. Everything else is up in the air. Alex Leatherwood was a disaster at right tackle and not much better at right guard as a rookie: He was charged with 41 blown blocks in 2021 -- the fourth-highest total in the NFL. Leatherwood could get another chance at right tackle, slide back to guard again or just end up tossed on the ever-growing heap of Raiders first-round draft busts. Andre James was a pleasant surprise at center but might not be the long-term answer. Denzelle Good is 31 years old and coming off an ACL tear in September. John Simpson was generally solid at right guard but tied for fourth in the NFL with nine holding penalties. There's no depth at any position, which is a problem across the Raiders' roster.
The Raiders don't select until the 86th overall pick after trading for Davante Adams. Immediate right tackle help might be out of the question by then, but some bulldozing guards who could slide outside to push/replace Leatherwood will still be on the board.
Prospects who might fit: Jamaree Salyer, Darian Kinnard
Quiet need: Cornerback
The Raiders have done an impressive job making over their cornerback room on the cheap while spending lavishly elsewhere. Newcomers Anthony Averett and Rock Ya-Sin are likely starters, with oft-injured ex-Bengals cornerback/returner Darrius Phillips adding depth. Throw in incumbent slot corner Nate Hobbs and perma-prospect Trayvon Mullen, and the Raiders aren't facing a cornerback crisis, despite so many draft failures and the departures of Casey Hayward and others. Still, the Raiders should look for depth on Day 3: Settling for "not a crisis" at cornerback is a great way to guarantee settling for the final AFC wild-card spot.
Prospects who might fit: Tariq Woolen, Decobie Durant
Not a need: Splashy big-name talent
The Raiders took care of that with the Adams trade, the Chandler Jones signing and Derek Carr's recent extension. Throw in Miller, Maxx Crosby, Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow, and their starring roles are set. The 2022 draft will be about filling in a flimsy supporting cast with limited leftover resources.