The stage for the 87th Heisman Trophy is set. The four finalists for the best player in college football include Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett, Michigan defensive end Aidan Hutchinson, Alabama quarterback Bryce Young and Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud.
Pickett has put together one-year leap reminiscent of Joe Burrow, who won the award in 2019. Hutchinson took the nation by storm in a heroic three-sack performance against arch rival Ohio State and has 14 sacks for the season. Young is coming off a four-touchdown day in an upset over Georgia, which catapulted the Crimson Tide to No. 1. And Stroud has the best QBR in the country and has engineered one of the most explosive offenses in the country.
But how do all four project as NFL prospects? That's what I'll get into today. Hutchinson was just moved up to the top of the boards from ESPN NFL draft analysts Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay, but the three quarterbacks are interesting evaluations, especially with Young and Stroud a year away from being eligible for the draft.
Let's get into the pros and question marks for each of the finalists, and then I'll tell you where they're likely to be drafted based on the tape we've seen so far. I'll start with the two 2023 prospects, since you might not know just yet what makes them so good:
Jump to conference:
Pickett | Hutchinson
Stroud | Young
Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
2021 stats: 4,322 passing yards (4th in FBS), 43 TDs, 4 INTs
Heisman odds, via Caesars Sportsbook: -4000
Pros: Young spent a year learning behind No. 15 overall pick Mac Jones, playing sparingly as a true freshman. As a first-year starter this season, he has thrown 43 touchdown passes, which ties Tua Tagovalioa's single-season record set in 2018. With another start on tap against Cincinnati in the College Football Playoff, he will have a chance to break the mark.
A slender 6-foot, 194-pound quarterback, one of Young's best attributes is his poise. He's coming off setting the SEC title game record for passing yards (421), and he also had three touchdowns in the win over Georgia. He has consistently shown a calm demeanor this season, combined with the accuracy of a prospect who has made twice as many starts.
An always-on target and balanced throwing base helps Young diagnose and attack coverages while also having the wherewithal to have solutions to the blitzes that he faces. His ability to decisively solve problems on the fly and still remain accurate has helped him far exceed the expected stage of his development. With a snappy release and a quick flick of the wrist, the ball comes out of his hand with plenty of urgency behind it. Placing minimal stress on targets at the catch point, Young's ball placement allows his receivers to gain yards after the catch without having to worry about the location of the ball.
Some stuff you just can't coach. Reviewing the tape from the SEC Championship Game, the poise and throw from Bryce Young are top tier. pic.twitter.com/Wb4k9ghGVP
— Jordan Reid (@Jordan_Reid) December 9, 2021
Young is a throw-first, dual-threat quarterback with pinpoint precision and accuracy inside and outside of structure. And with two years of eligibility remaining, his upside and what he potentially can turn into are limitless considering what he has already shown during his first season as a full-time starter in Tuscaloosa.
Biggest question marks: With only 13 starts so far, sample size will be the common narrative raised surrounding his early draft stock projection, though that won't be an issue if he plays the same way in 2022. We've seen quarterback prospects in previous seasons -- Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray and Zach Wilson -- have breakout seasons that led to them becoming top picks, but all were draft-eligible while doing so. Entering his junior season, expectations will be heightened for Young as he enters his second season as a starter with plenty of hype. The presumed favorite for the Heisman Trophy, that also will add even more attention to him.
Where he projects in the 2023 draft: Kiper has already stated that Young is the favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick in 2023, and now the young quarterback could make it three first-round QBs in four years for the Crimson Tide. Since the common draft era began in 1967, Alabama has never had a player selected as the top overall pick. that's hard to believe, considering the talent that the program has produced. With a repeat performance next season, Young has a strong chance to be the first.
C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
2021 stats: 3,862 passing yards (8th in FBS), 38 TDs (5th), 5 INTs
Heisman odds, via Caesars Sportsbook: +3000
Pros: Stroud had huge shoes to fill in taking over for No. 11 overall pick Justin Fields. He had an up-and-down first start against Minnesota, though he finished 13-for-22 passing for 294 yards and four scores, and he has developed as the season has gone on.
Stroud has clean mechanics, which helps him generate velocity on his throws. A nice over-the-top release marries well with an offense that is predicated on attacking the intermediate and deep levels of the field. As he has continued to gain more experience, Stroud's familiarity with going through progressions has become more efficient, and he's become quicker with knowing how to attack each step within it. He understands the value of differing ball speeds, and he can change the trajectory and velocity behind each throw. Knowing when and how to guide passes to his targets is one of his biggest strengths.
Watching Stroud become more comfortable with star wideouts Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson throughout the season, it's clear that one of the young quarterback's best traits is his decisiveness and accuracy to all levels of the field. Priding himself on winning from the pocket, he found his comfort zone as he gained more starts. The game that most impressed me from him was against Purdue, when he completed 81.6% of his passes and had five touchdowns. That win provides a snapshot of all of the tools that Stroud possesses and show just how much better he can be with another year of experience under his belt.
As a redshirt freshman, he will enter the 2022 season as one of the best overall quarterbacks in the country. With another year in Ryan Day's uptempo and wide open scheme, he's going to have another opportunity to put up huge numbers.
Biggest question marks: Stroud showed a few warts in the final game of the season, a loss to Michigan. Notable, the mental clock must be sped up, as he spent too much time hanging on to options that weren't open and was sacked four times. Another area that scouts want to see Stroud perform more of is showcasing his rushing ability; he finished the season with minus-30 rushing yards, taking into account sacks.
He has the capability of being an option in the designed QB run game and taking off sooner when options aren't available, but he has to improve there. It's evident that Stroud will need to unlock and trust his ability with using his legs more.
Where he projects in the 2023 draft: Alongside Young, Stroud will be near the top of the positional rankings entering next season. Losing Wilson and Olave will be an adjustment early on, but star sophomore Jaxon Smith-Njigba returns to form what could be the best QB-WR duo in the country. If he's able to repeat what he showed during his first season as a starter, Stroud could be a top-10 pick in 2023.
Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt
2021 stats: 4,319 passing yards (5th in FBS), 42 TDs (3rd), 7 INTs
Heisman odds, via Caesars Sportsbook: +3000
Pros: Pickett suffered an ankle injury midway through his junior season in 2020, but he considered entering last April's draft. After a 13-touchdown, nine-interception season, though, he received unfavorable responses from NFL evaluators; early-to-mid Day 3 was the prevailing consensus about where he was likely to be picked.
The 6-foot-3, 220 pound signal-caller returned for his senior season and orchestrated one of the best seasons in program history. He rewrote the record books while leading Pitt to its first ever ACC title, finishing with 4,319 passing yards, 42 touchdowns and only seven interceptions. His 42 TDs helped him surpass Deshaun Watson's previous single-season ACC record (41). He now owns the school record for career touchdown passes (81), surpassing Dan Marino (79).
Pickett is a textbook definition of an extreme distributor at the position. His high school background as a point guard and outfielder show up often as he continues to pick defenses apart with his arm. Completing 65% percent of his passes outside of the numbers, he has enough arm strength to get the ball to any location on the field. With 49 career starts, his experience shows up when attacking exotic coverages and when forced to throw into the teeth of defenses. His calm and confident demeanor has helped him excel this season.
Biggest question marks: Whenever a player makes a significant leap from year to year, evaluators always wonder what caused it. Twenty-nine-touchdown improvements don't usually happen. And because he plays the most important position on the roster, they'll take a close look at his tape to see what changed.
What caused the big jump? Comfort in the Pitt scheme, more dependable surroundings -- including a stellar connection with Jordan Addison, who caught 93 passes -- and improved ball placement. The biggest reason, however, was Pickett fully healing from his ailing ankle. He showed off his running ability on a noteworthy fake slide that turned into a 58-yard TD score.
The term "ceiling" will be used often when talking about Pickett because of his arm strength, which is only slightly above average. ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. has recently compared Pickett to Raiders QB Derek Carr , who was a second-round pick in 2014, and I see the same thing on tape. Pickett will need to rely on his accuracy over his arm strength. Still, Pickett could go higher in the draft than Carr. Pickett's patience in the pocket and consistency over the long haul are questions that scouts want to see eventually answered, particularly for a quarterback who is about to make his 50th college start.
Where Pickett projects in the 2022 draft: Unlocking the next stage of his development has resulted in Pickett starring amid a 2022 class that has struggled with consistency. He's firmly in the QB1 mix and has a chance to be a top-15 selection. He could climb even higher, if he performs well at the Senior Bowl in February.
Aidan Hutchinson, EDGE, Michigan
2021 stats: 55 tackles, 15.5 TFLs, 14 sacks (3rd in FBS)
Heisman odds, via Caesars Sportsbook: +2000
Pros: Hutchinson played in just two games in 2020, before a right ankle fracture ended his season. And even though he didn't have a sack, his talent was evident. Scouts wanted to see him fulfill his potential and string together great performances over a full season. That's exactly what he has done this season, leading one of the best defensive units in the country.
Over the past five games, Hutchinson had 28 tackles and seven sacks, including a pair of three-sack performances against Penn State and Ohio State. Standing out while on the biggest of stages resulted in the 6-foot-6, 265-pound edge rusher being finalist for the Heisman Trophy. Charles Woodson (1997) is the only defensive player to take home the illustrious award during its 86-year history. Now, another Michigan man is vying to repeat history.
Hutchinson is a long levered and versatile defensive end. Crafty with his rush plans, he can attack blockers in many ways. Consistently running hard up the field before slipping back underneath with counter moves has become a staple for him. Combining his maturation off of the edge with his effort through the entirety of games, the arrow continues to point up for his development.
Biggest question marks: Durability was one that scouts had coming into the year and how he would respond coming back from that injured ankle. Now, though, there aren't many question marks with Hutchinson's resume -- he has checked multiple boxes this season. Having silenced those critics, the biggest hurdle remaining for him is the lead up to the pre-draft process with the combine and interviews at the draft.
Where Hutchinson projects in the 2022 draft: If he aces those tests, he's firmly in position to battle Oregon pass-rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux to be the No. 1 overall pick. Both defensive ends could seesaw back and forth as the top defenders and best players at the position in this draft class.