Trading down in the NFL draft is still free money. Despite significant evidence -- including research by Wharton professor Cade Massey and Nobel Prize winner Richard Thaler -- suggesting that teams regularly overpay when trading up, the market remains inefficient and teams continue to pay a premium to move up year after year.
At its core, this boils down to overconfidence in player evaluation: the difference in the chance that, for example, WR2 will outperform WR3 does not justify the price teams pay to make that distinction (see: the price the 49ers paid for Trey Lance vs. the price the Bears paid for Justin Fields vs. the price the Patriots paid for Mac Jones).
To determine reasonable values for draft picks relative to one another, we have our own draft chart based on a regression of historical performance of players by draft pick using Pro Football Reference's approximate value metric (similar to work done by many others, including Chase Stuart in 2013). By comparison, the antiquated Jimmy Johnson chart overweighs how quickly the talent of players drops off as picks elapse in the draft. Our analysis does not include the difference in salary by pick, as Massey and Thaler's research did, which would cause an even more severe departure from the Johnson chart.
And if ever there were a year to trade down, it was this one. With suggestions that there was less information on prospects this season due to circumstances dictated by the COVID-19 pandemic, the additional uncertainty presumably led to a flatter talent curve than usual. That means that first-round picks were likely worth less than usual and that middle-round and/or late-round picks were worth more than usual (because the likelihood of a gem falling was higher than normal).
In this strange year of draft evaluation, an even stranger thing happened: Giants general manager Dave Gettleman traded down -- for the first time ever. Not only did he do that but he did so in the most valuable deal in the entire draft.
We're breaking down the five most valuable trades in this year's draft (during the draft only, so the 49ers-Dolphins-Eagles deals are not included) according to our AV-based chart, starting with "Trader Dave."
1. New York Giants-Chicago Bears
The trade: Bears receive pick No. 11; Giants receive picks Nos. 20 and 164, 2022 first-round and fourth-round picks
The value winner: Giants
Surplus value: First-round pick
Let me start off by saying that trades are not a zero-sum game and this deal is a perfect example: It's a win-win. The value calculation changes for a team trading up for a quarterback -- the upside of "hitting" on the pick is dramatically higher than hitting on a non-quarterback -- and so the Bears paying this premium for Fields is, in my view, not only acceptable but worthwhile.
But for the Giants, it's irrelevant whom the Bears selected: New York walks away with a ton of extra value. The expected production out of a player selected with the No. 11 pick is about 20% more than for a player at No. 20 in an average draft. In exchange for that 20%, the Giants landed an entire extra first-round pick and then some.
If we assume the Bears' pick is in the middle of the first round next year and we don't discount any value for that extra first being in a future year (which, to be fair, there probably should be some discount), then Gettleman roughly doubled the value of his No. 11 pick with this trade. That's just good business.
2. Minnesota Vikings-New York Jets
The trade: Jets receive picks Nos. 14 and 143; Vikings receive picks Nos. 23, 66 and 86
The value winner: Vikings
Surplus value: Early third-round pick
After leading these rankings a year ago, the Vikings again took advantage of the edge gained in the trade market. In this case it was an incredible deal for them, particularly considering the player they ended up with: Christian Darrisaw, who was a logical fit for Minnesota at pick No. 14 and ended up falling to No. 23.
For the Jets, this looks like an error. The overpay is by almost exactly pick No. 66 itself -- had that pick been removed, this trade would have been "fair." I'm not arguing the Jets shouldn't have drafted an offensive lineman to protect Zach Wilson. On the contrary, I think they should have drafted more of them.
If we want to put this trade in the context of players, think about it this way: If you were the Jets, for the same price would you rather draft USC guard Alijah Vera-Tucker or Oklahoma State tackle Teven Jenkins and BYU tackle/guard Brady Christensen? Jets GM Joe Douglas chose the former, but history indicates the latter is more likely to pay off. And that's not even counting the possibility that Darrisaw or Vera-Tucker might've slid to No. 23.
At the time of the Jets' selection, there was a 21% and 34% chance of those players making it to No. 23, respectively, according to ESPN's Draft Day Predictor.
3. Cincinnati Bengals-New England Patriots
The trade: Patriots receive pick No. 38; Bengals receive picks Nos. 46, 122 and 139
The value winner: Bengals
Surplus value: Third-round pick
Just three picks before this trade, the Broncos paid a fourth-round pick and got back a sixth-rounder to move up five spots. Here, the Patriots dealt two fourth-rounders without getting anything back to move up eight spots and draft Alabama defensive tackle Christian Barmore.
Bottom line: The Bengals got Bill Belichick to pay up here, increasing the value of their original No. 38 pick by roughly 60%. With the picks acquired, Cincinnati selected offensive tackle Jackson Carman in the second round and then defensive tackle Tyler Shelvin and offensive tackle D'Ante Smith.
4. Carolina Panthers-Houston Texans
The trade: Texans receive pick No. 89; Panthers receive picks Nos. 109 and 158 and a 2022 fourth-round pick
The value winner: Panthers
Surplus value: Late third-round pick
This ranks fourth in value gained, but there's an argument that this was the best negotiated trade of the entire draft because Panthers GM Scott Fitterer swindled Texans GM Nick Caserio here. The Panthers doubled the value of their No. 89 pick, which was both an incredible deal in a vacuum and when compared with the other trades made around it.
The difference between expectation for the 89th pick and the 109th pick is not that large, yet Caserio dealt two fourth-rounders to bridge that gap and select Michigan wide receiver Nico Collins. That is not a price worth paying, especially not for a team with a roster in as much trouble as Houston's is.
Houston surrendered more value in this deal than was lost in the seven trades before this deal and every trade after.
5. New York Giants-Miami Dolphins
The trade: Dolphins receive pick No. 42; Giants receive pick No. 50 and 2022 third-round pick
The value winner: Giants
Surplus value: Late third-round pick
Trader Dave strikes again!
Fresh off his Day 1 success in the trade market, Gettleman decided to take another stab -- to great success. I don't think you need approximate value or a trade chart to see why this is a winner: What's larger, the difference in value between picks No. 42 and 50 or an entire third-round pick next year?
It's an obvious gain for the Giants, particularly considering they were able to land a falling player at a position of need in edge rusher Azeez Ojulari at No. 50.
BONUS: A worthwhile trade up
Carolina Panthers-Cleveland Browns
The trade: Browns receive picks Nos. 52 and 113; Panthers receive picks Nos. 59 and 89
The value winner: Panthers (barely)
Surplus value: Early seventh-round pick
I'm including this here to demonstrate that trades up for a non-quarterback can be worthwhile. In this case, the Browns paid a 5% premium -- a small price in a vacuum and well below typical market cost for trades up -- to select linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, who most people thought would go in the first round.
Even if the league valued Owusu-Koramoah less than outsiders originally thought (likely, at this point), given how far he fell it seems like a fine bet to make that he's worth the tax Cleveland paid of 5% over the No. 52 pick.