NFL draft 2021 mailbag: Mel Kiper, Todd McShay answer questions on Mac Jones, QB trades and surprises

We're exactly two weeks away from the start of the 2021 NFL draft, and there are still many unknowns in Round 1. Which player do the 49ers have in mind after they traded up for the No. 3 pick? That could shake up the rest of the top 10. Could the Patriots jump ahead in the draft to try to get one of the top quarterbacks? That might mean New England going all-in and sacrificing future prime picks as it attempts to get back in the AFC playoff race this season.

With so much intrigue ahead of the first round, we asked ESPN NFL draft analysts Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay to answer questions from readers via Twitter. Check out McShay's latest rankings, where he has grades for the top 350 prospects in the class. Kiper just put out his two-round Mock Draft 4.0, which features two interesting trades in the top 10.

They alternated questions below, diving deep into the quarterback class, the under-the-radar prospects you need to know and more. (Questions have been edited for clarity.)

What percentage chance would you assign to Mac Jones, Trey Lance and Justin Fields going No. 3 to the 49ers? (via @EvanStrothers)

Kiper: This is a really interesting question, and the answer could evolve over the next two weeks. But right now, there's no denying the way it's trending. All the buzz I've heard is that 49ers general manager John Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan traded up nine spots because they covet Jones. They see him as the perfect fit in Shanahan's system and the quarterback to put them over the top. This is the way it works sometimes with quarterbacks -- teams find their guy, and they pull out all the stops to get him. Jones is my fourth-ranked quarterback and is No. 12 on my Big Board. I don't see superstar potential from him, but he could be a very solid starter.

So to answer the question directly, here's how I'd lay out the percentages as of today: 80% to Jones, 15% to Lance, 5% to Fields.

What's a pick you could see happening that would break most mocks? (via @CheeseSando)

McShay: Well, following up on what Mel just said, it'd be the Niners taking either Trey Lance or Justin Fields. Those early picks going a different direction are the most likely ones to "break a mock" because of how many picks it could mix up afterward, and right now, a change in the wind direction for San Francisco is the most likely thing that could happen in that regard.

Everything we're hearing right now indicates Shanahan is targeting Jones at No. 3, and it makes sense in a lot of ways. I can't shake this feeling that it's just going to play out a different way, though, and I don't think he's as talented as Lance or Fields. There will be plenty of intrigue when the 49ers are on the clock.

Another one to watch, albeit a little further down the board: What do Bill Belichick and the Patriots do at No. 15? New England spent, spent and spent some more in free agency, and it brought back Cam Newton on a one-year deal. It was an un-Patriot-like approach, so is it now possible we see an un-Patriot-like first round and a trade up for a QB? It might not be what Belichick is used to, but it's a different time in the post-Tom Brady era, and New England is adjusting. Keep a close eye on the Pats.

Which team is most likely to move up in this draft if one of the top QBs slides? (via @mattcoop_13)

Kiper: Let's rank them. Here's how I'd put four teams, with the most likely at the top:

1. New England: The Patriots don't usually have a pick as high as No. 15. Can Bill Belichick & Co. really afford to wait for a franchise quarterback? The 2022 class is not nearly as good as this one.

2. Denver: Are the Broncos sold on Drew Lock? They have the No. 9 pick and wouldn't have to move up as many spots. They could also pick the best player available and give Lock one more year to prove he's a legit NFL starter.

3. Washington: These next two teams rank here because of where they are in Round 1. At No. 19, Washington would have to give up a lot to move a few spots. It does have an extra third-round pick from the Trent Williams trade last year.

4. Chicago: The Bears gave Andy Dalton a one-year deal, but at No. 20, they'd have to really love a quarterback to trade up. General manager Ryan Pace, though, could be desperate to get his guy.

We hear a lot about the probable first-round QBs, but are there any interesting Day 2 or Day 3 quarterbacks you guys see with starting potential? (via @CGott17)

McShay: Stanford's Davis Mills. He was a five-star recruit coming out of high school and has a lot of natural ability. He makes good decisions with the football, is accurate and gets the ball out quickly. But Mills is a rhythm passer -- he does his best work when his drops are timed well with the receiver's routes and the pocket is clean -- and struggles when things get muddy around him, forcing him off-platform. That, along with just 11 starts of college experience and some durability concerns, makes him a gamble, but potentially a worthy one on Day 2.

To me, Mills has the highest ceiling of those guys beyond the top five, and I think he could be the sixth QB taken. At worst, he's the eighth. But he's a hot name right now, and a team like Denver, New England, Washington, Chicago or maybe even Pittsburgh could certainly jump at the chance to draft him in Round 2 and walk away with a future starter.

Who has the most exciting/interesting pick in the draft? (via @KBbrewhaha)

Kiper: I'll go with the Bengals, who have the No. 5 pick and must love the way this draft is playing out. Because we'll see at least three quarterbacks in the top four picks -- and potentially a fourth, depending on what Atlanta does at No. 4 -- Cincinnati could have its pick of the top non-quarterback in this draft. That's rare.

The Bengals' debate should come down to wideout Ja'Marr Chase, who was Joe Burrow's teammate at LSU and caught 20 touchdown passes from Burrow in 2019; tight end Kyle Pitts, who is my second-ranked prospect and is one of the best tight ends I've ever graded; or offensive tackle Penei Sewell, who would plug a significant weakness along the Bengals' O-line. They're also in position to trade back a few spots and pick up prime capital if they want. They can't go wrong here, but this is a pick that will cause dominoes to fall in the rest of the top 10.

Is there a player and team that you think are an absolutely perfect fit together? (via @kyledc202)

McShay: Northwestern offensive tackle Rashawn Slater and the Los Angeles Chargers at No. 13. Slater is not as long as Penei Sewell, but he's a classic left tackle in terms of his footwork, balance and technique.

He can get to the second level, which helps with the run game. He can pass protect on the edge, which is crucial now that the Chargers have a young franchise QB in Justin Herbert. And he brings mobility, which fits perfectly with the run-pass options and screen stuff that the Chargers' offense runs with Herbert. Los Angeles has been looking for an elite OT for a while, and Slater fits the bill.

Who could be the surprise first-round pick this year? (via @DRAFTPLEX)

Kiper: This is fun, and @DRAFTPLEX mentioned linebacker Jordyn Brooks last year and safety Darnell Savage in 2019 as past "surprise" picks. I have three options here -- all from the ACC -- and again these are just guys who could be surprising first-round picks, not that I'm projecting them to be:

• Javonte Williams, RB, North Carolina: He's my third-ranked back, but it wouldn't be shocking if a team at the end of Round 1 liked him a little more than Najee Harris and Travis Etienne. There's not much separating the top three. Williams is a really good pass-catcher.

• Hunter Long, TE, Boston College: He might end up as the second tight end off the board, and he's a better blocker than Pitts. Long led led all FBS tight ends with 57 catches last season. He's a complete tight end, and we know NFL teams covet those players.

• Dyami Brown, WR, North Carolina: Yes, another Tar Heel here. Brown is a big-time deep threat -- he put up more than 1,000 yards and averaged 20 yards per catch in each of the last two seasons -- with great hands.

Who's the most undervalued WR in this draft, and why is it Shi Smith? (via @mackbellamy6783)

McShay: I do love Smith -- I wrote about him earlier this week -- and he certainly helped himself out with a strong Senior Bowl week. He accelerates to top speed quickly and can go up to get some passes despite being 5-foot-10. But he struggles a little when he's pushed around by physical corners, and I think he is probably a Day 3 pick. So I'm sorry, @mackbellamy6783, but this has to be Minnesota's Rashod Bateman.

Bateman might be the best route runner not named DeVonta Smith in the draft class, and he has very strong hands in traffic. He knows how to use his body to box out defenders on contested throws, and he's a strong runner after the catch. He also ran faster than we expected at his pro day, clocking his 40-yard dash at 4.39. I like the JuJu Smith-Schuster comp for Bateman, and I think he could be a very talented starter either outside or in the slot in the NFL.

Will Kwity Paye or Jaelan Phillips be the first edge rusher selected? (via @vikings_cg)

Kiper: Paye. He has 10-sack-a-year potential if he can improve his technique. He has tremendous potential, and that's what teams draft for. He should be off the board by Arizona at No. 16.

Phillips has upside as a pure pass-rusher, but his injury history -- he dealt with concussions at UCLA before he transferred to Miami -- means he's not likely to be the first edge defender off the board.

The big thing today is versatility, but which prospects seem extremely scheme-restricted? (via @CD3_allday)

McShay: Instead of painting these guys as restricted, I'm looking at their fits as a positive. NFL teams know exactly what they are getting with players who excel in a particular scheme. If you're a team looking for a player to fill a certain role, you're thrilled to land a player who, while not ultra-versatile, is excellent within the confines of your specific offense or defense. And those teams will value those players higher. So with that in mind, here are three guys who could really stand out in a particular system and role at the next level:

• Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina: If you play a lot of press-man coverage and are looking for a long, physical cornerback, Horn is the guy. He makes it really tough for receivers to get off the line and into their routes, and he's competitive on 50-50 balls. But if you are looking for a corner to play more in space, he might not be as effective as Patrick Surtain II or Caleb Farley.

• Azeez Ojulari, OLB, Georgia: I'm not saying that 3-4 OLB is the only role that Ojulari can play, but it's certainly the one that makes the most sense. I just don't see a good fit as a true defensive end in a 4-3. He's 6-foot-4 and 249 pounds, and he ran a 4.61 in the 40. He is a menace as an edge rusher, and he can drop and cover. Look at what the Steelers and Ravens do on defense, for instance. He'd be a great fit there.

• Levi Onwuzurike, DT, Washington: Not many NFL teams would ask Onwuzurike to anchor blockers. He's 6-foot-3 and 290 pounds, and he has 4.86 speed. Onwuzurike is at his best when he's turned loose to get upfield and disrupt, and that's why I think he's the perfect 3-technique in a 4-3 scheme.

Is Penei Sewell sliding? (via @MarkN1ssen)

Kiper: It's possible Sewell is being undervalued because of two reasons. For one, the quarterback class is in such demand that we could see five picked in the top 10, which means other prospects could drop. And Sewell didn't play in 2020, which means he was sort of out of sight, out of mind. But if you turn on his 2019 tape at Oregon, you see a dominant left tackle and instant NFL starter.

So maybe Sewell won't go in the top three, but I don't see him sliding out of the top 10. Cincinnati at No. 5 or Carolina at No. 8 are his most likely landing spots as it stands.