There has been at least one edge rusher selected in the top five of the NFL draft every year since 2012, where the first edge rusher off the board was Bruce Irvin at pick No. 15. That streak is likely to end this year, as most onlookers agree that there is not an edge rusher worthy of a top-5 pick in this year's draft.
Although this year's group of edge rushers may lack the elite prospects of past drafts, it is certainly an interesting and eclectic group. One top prospect had a single season of double-digit sacks as a sophomore and then declined to play in 2020. Another top prospect may have the record for the greatest disparity between his on-field production and workout performance.
In light of this year's unusual edge rusher prospects in an unusual draft, Football Outsiders' system for projecting college edge rushers, SackSEER, could be helpful in cutting through some of the noise. SackSEER uses pre-draft workout data, along with college statistics, to project the NFL pass rushing prospects of defensive ends and 3-4 outside linebackers.
Check out the bottom of the article for more detail on how SackSEER works. Here is a ranking of the top edge rusher prospects for 2021 according to our model.
Jaelan Phillips, Miami Hurricanes
SackSEER projection: 30.5 sacks through fifth NFL season
Scouts, Inc. overall ranking: No. 17
Similar historical prospects: Shawne Merriman, Jadeveon Clowney
A sneaky-good edge rusher prospect. In pre-draft coverage, Phillips is somewhat overshadowed by his slightly more highly-regarded teammate, Gregory Rousseau. However, SackSEER actually thinks that Phillips is the stronger prospect and best edge rusher prospect in this draft. A consistent theme of Phillips's projection is that he does not excel or break records in any one area, but all of his SackSEER numbers are good, making him a solid prospect overall.
Phillips' production is not quite as good as the production of some of the more dominant edge rushers of drafts past, but it is still well above average. Phillips has only 12.5 career sacks in college, but he only played in 20 career games. He also recorded an interception and five PBUs, resulting in a good 0.3 passes defensed per game, which is approximately twice as good as the passes-defensed rate of the typical edge rusher prospect.
Phillips also had good workouts. Phillips ran the 40-yard dash in 4.56 seconds, recorded a 36-inch vertical jump and recorded a 10-foot-5-inch broad jump at his pro day. Again, none of those numbers are records for edge rusher prospects, but they are all still very good.
Overall, SackSEER puts Phillips at a projection of just over 30 sacks, which is nearly identical to the projection of last year's top prospect, Chase Young. Truth be told, you would probably prefer a prospect like Young over Phillips. Phillips played in only 20 career games and his best season was the bizarre 2020. That said, over half of historical edge rusher prospects with 30-sack projections have gone in the top ten in the draft. Phillips, by contrast, is slated to go in the middle of the first round, which would make him a great potential value pick if he performs similarly to other top SackSEER prospects in the past.
Jayson Oweh, Penn State Nittany Lions
SackSEER projection: 24.5 sacks through fifth NFL season
Scouts, Inc. overall ranking: No. 35
Similar historical prospects: Danielle Hunter, Kamerion Wimbley
The easy hot take on Jayson Oweh is to discount him as the latest in a line of "workout warriors" who are over-drafted and destined to disappoint. Although teams would be smart to take Oweh's lack of production seriously, they should also not be quick to disregard Oweh's uniquely amazing performance in workouts.
There have been so many edge rusher prospects in past drafts who have been hyped for their workouts that it is easy to miss how truly special Oweh's were. Owen ran the 40-yard dash in 4.37 seconds, which is faster than all but the fastest wide receivers. To put Oweh's time in perspective, the fastest 40-yard dash time in SackSEER's database is Dontay Moch, who ran the 40-yard dash in 4.40 seconds. However, Moch ran his dash at only 248 pounds, while Oweh ran his at 257. Oweh's 11-foot-2-inch broad jump was better than all but three edge rushers (Jamie Collins and Bud Dupree edge him out while Ben Bangou ties him). Oweh's 39.5-inch vertical leap is not quite as impressive as his 40-yard dash and his broad jump, but it is still great.
However, Oweh has only seven career sacks and had exactly zero sacks in the seven games he played last year. Oweh also had only two career passes defensed, which makes his passes-defensed rate a bit below average as well.
It might seem unlikely that a player with so little sack production in college football would be likely to succeed in the NFL -- but it does happen! The most recent example is Danielle Hunter. Hunter had only 4.5 college sacks in three seasons at LSU, but he ran a 4.57-second 40-yard dash. Hunter has recorded 54.5 NFL sacks to date. There are also a handful of players with a similar profile, like Michael Johnson, who had solid but not spectacular edge rusher careers.
You can't just expect Oweh to star or flame out; he is just as likely to fall somewhere in between. Oweh's projection, which is in the mid-twenties, suggests that nearly anything could happen.
Kwity Paye, Michigan Wolverines
SackSEER projection: 21.7 sacks through fifth NFL season
Scouts, Inc. overall ranking: No. 18
Similar historical prospects: Rashan Gary, Dion Jordan
An average edge rusher prospect who reaches third on this list mostly due to his high projected draft position.
Paye simply does not have the sack production of top edge rusher prospects in the past. Paye had 11.5 sacks in 28 games. He is certainly not the least productive edge rusher who has been drafted in the first round, but his sack rate is below average for someone of his projected draft position. Paye also had only one pass defensed, which is also below average.
He really needed to stand out to make up for this lack of sack production, but his workouts were not quite good enough. Paye had a 4.52-second 40-yard dash, which is definitely great for a 261-pound player. However, his vertical leap and broad jump scores were only slightly above average. The 40-yard dash, vertical leap and broad jump all equally correlate to success at the NFL level, so when you average the three numbers together, you have an above average workout, but not an exceptional one.
Paye has enough going for him that it would not be surprising to see him succeed. However, his SackSEER profile suggests that he is somewhat more likely to bust than the typical first-round prospect.
Gregory Rousseau, Miami Hurricanes
SackSEER projection: 21.3 sacks through fifth NFL season
Scouts, Inc. overall ranking: No. 16
Similar historical prospects: Nick Perry, Whitney Mercilus
Rousseau is the highest-rated edge rusher prospect in this year's draft class. He had a great season as a sophomore, recording 15.5 sacks in 13 games. So why is Rousseau's projection so low?
First of all, SackSEER adjusts Rousseau's sack production for regression to the mean. 15.5 sacks is an impressive total as a sophomore, but it is also true that many edge rusher prospects have had fast starts to their college careers and then faded considerably. You may not remember Ricky Sapp and George Selvie. Both had double-digit sacks as sophomores, but faded and ultimately dropped to the fifth and seventh round, respectively. That could have been the case for Rousseau as well, and for that reason, Rousseau was incredibly smart to opt out of the 2020 season and preserve his draft stock.
Second, Rousseau's workouts were below average overall. Reports place his 40-yard dash in the 4.70-second range, which is firmly average. However, his vertical leap (30 inches) and broad jump (9 feet, 7 inches) were below average, meaning that his SackSEER "explosion" numbers are below average overall.
Third, while Rousseau's sack production was good, he had only one pass defensed.
Overall, it adds up to SackSEER being less bullish on Rousseau than the conventional wisdom. Because he and Jaelan Phillips are so similarly rated by draftniks, a team with the option to do so might want to take a hard look at Phillips instead of Rousseau.
Carlos Basham Jr., Wake Forest Demon Deacons
SackSEER projection: 20.7 sacks through fifth NFL season
Scouts, Inc. overall ranking: No. 41
Similar historical prospects: Chandler Jones, Carlos Dunlap
Despite being rated solidly in the second round, Basham Jr. is only a hair's breadth away from overtaking the more highly rated Paye and Rousseau. Basham was a reasonably productive player at Wake Forest, recording 10 sacks in 13 games as a junior, and five sacks in only six games as a senior. Unlike many of this year's top prospects, Basham was productive on the passes-defensed front, recording eight PBUs.
Basham also has a great size-speed combination. At 274 pounds, he managed to run the 40-yard dash at 4.64 seconds, which is quicker than an average edge rusher prospect. His vertical leap was just average, but his 10-foot-2-inch broad jump was very good.
A team that needs pass-rushing help but misses out on Phillips might be smart to pass on an edge rusher in the first round and look at selecting a player like Basham in the second round.
Joseph Ossai, Texas Longhorns
SackSEER projection: 19.7 sacks through fifth NFL season
Scouts, Inc. overall ranking: No. 58
Similar historical prospects: Kyle Van Noy, LaMarr Woodley
A similar prospect to Basham. The two players were equally productive, recording similar sack and passes defensed totals. Ossai is smaller, at 256 pounds, but had better workouts. In particular, Ossai had a phenomenal vertical leap of 41.5 inches, which bests all but five edge rushers in past drafts: Davis Tull, Bud Dupree, Dontay Moch, Mark Anderson and Jamie Collins.
Ossai's SackSEER projection lags slightly behind Basham's because Scouts, Inc. projects Basham as a second-round pick and Ossai as a likely third-rounder.
Azeez Ojulari, Georgia Bulldogs
SackSEER projection: 18.7 sacks through fifth NFL season
Scouts, Inc. overall ranking: No. 29
Similar historical prospects: Anthony Spencer, Jason Babin
A productive player rushing the passer at Georgia, recording 15 sacks in 23 games. However, Ojulari had only two passes defensed, which loses him some points with SackSEER.
Ojulari's workouts were similarly mixed. He had a poor 30-inch vertical leap, but he did have a very good 10-foot-7-inch broad jump. It's somewhat uncommon for a player to be below average on the vertical leap and very good on the broad jump, so the discrepancy is somewhat curious.
Joe Tryon, Washington Huskies
SackSEER projection: 17.4 sacks through fifth NFL season
Scouts, Inc. overall ranking: No. 31
Similar historical prospects: Calvin Pace, Shane Ray
Tryon is an okay prospect, but SackSEER does not quite see why he is projected as high as the end of the first round. Tryon played only two full seasons for the Huskies and recorded 9.0 sacks and two passes defensed. As was the case with Rousseau, SackSEER fears that Tryon's production could have dropped off if his career continued.
His workouts were also not particularly noteworthy. Tryon's 40-yard dash time and vertical leap were slightly above average, but his broad jump and 3-cone drill were both below average.
The bottom line is that SackSEER thinks Tryon is an average prospect. The "average" edge rusher prospect goes in the third or fourth round -- not the bottom half of the first. Although Tryon is not a terrible prospect, he may be the most overrated edge rusher prospect in this draft.
Potential sleeper: Elerson Smith, Northern Iowa Panthers
SackSEER projection: 13.9 sacks through fifth NFL season
Scouts, Inc. overall ranking: No. 213
Similar historical prospects: Jared Allen, Robert Mathis
Most late round gems in at the edge rusher position are productive college players who fell in the draft for one reason or the other. The most notable examples are Jared Allen and Robert Mathis, who were extremely productive players who came from small schools. They were both average to below average during pre-draft workouts, so teams (erroneously) concluded that their production was the result of poor competition.
Cue Elerson Smith, who was a productive player from Northern Iowa. Smith had a nice junior season, with 14 sacks in 15 games. Smith also batted away eight passes during his three-year career, which gives him one of the top passes-defensed rates in this class.
Although Smith posted good numbers, he was not as dominant as either Allen or Mathis. However, Smith had a much better workout than either Allen or Mathis. Smith had an average 40-yard dash but had an amazing 41.5-inch vertical leap and a great 10-foot-7-inch broad jump. Smith also ran the 3-cone drill in seven seconds flat, which is an excellent time.
Of course, the odds are that Smith will not be the next Allen or Mathis. For every Allen or Mathis, there is a David Bass or a Davis Tull, productive small-school edge rushers who never made much of an impact at the NFL level. Accordingly, due to Smith's low projected draft position, SackSEER projects Smith at 13.9 sacks instead of 30. However, the chances of Smith becoming a star are not zero and he is SackSEER's second-highest projected player (behind Phillips) if you disregard projected draft position. Indeed, even accounting for the wide gulf between their respective projected draft positions, SackSEER rates Smith as only 3.5 sacks behind Tryon.
Sixth-round picks have a very low success rate, so it should be worthwhile for some team to select Smith and see if he can realize the potential that his statistical profile suggests.
Methodology
SackSEER is based on a statistical analysis of all edge rushers drafted between 1998 to 2019 and measures the following:
The edge rusher's projected draft position. Specifically, the rankings from Scouts, Inc.
An "explosion index" that measures the prospect's scores in the 40-yard dash, the vertical leap and the broad jump in pre-draft workouts
The prospect's score on the 3-cone drill
A metric called "SRAM" which stands for "sack rate as modified." SRAM measures the prospect's per game sack productivity, but with adjustments for factors such as early entry in the NFL draft and position switches during college
The prospect's college passes defensed divided by college games played