2021 NFL draft QB class: Do the stats match the tape for Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, others?

We've spent a good deal of time talking about each of the top 2021 NFL draft quarterback prospects' tape and analyzing their strengths and weaknesses. But what happens when we compare those evaluations with statistics in a handful of areas?

We took the top 13 QBs in this class -- Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, Trey Lance, Mac Jones, Kyle Trask, Kellen Mond, Davis Mills, Jamie Newman, Ian Book, Sam Ehlinger, Shane Buechele and Feleipe Franks -- and dove in on five key statistical realms. But because the 2020 season was uneven across college football, we had to get creative. ESPN Stats & Information's John Parolin pulled two telling stats from each quarterback's past 13 games for each of those categories. We considered that the approximate sample of a typical season, and it helped account for anyone who either opted out in 2020 or played a shortened campaign.

Then NFL draft analyst Todd McShay evaluated the numbers against what he sees on tape, with some additional context from Parolin. What matches the film, and what doesn't? Numbers don't tell the entire story, but they help support and complement evaluations, and sometimes they can even force a scout to go back to the tape and take another look from another angle. So let's dig in, beginning with how each quarterback handles pressure.

Note: Even after trying to level the field for all QBs by looking at their past 13 starts, there were still some irregularities. First, Mills' sample was just 11 games because that is all he has for his career. Second, Lance's numbers were only available for two of the five sections, as FCS numbers have limited offerings.

Jump to:
Pressure | Deep ball | Accuracy
Pocket | Out route

Who can extend plays under duress?

McShay: While all of these categories matter, I really dig in on the pressure numbers. What happens when it all breaks down is very important for today's quarterback prospects. NFL pass-rushers will get on you quickly, and I like to see how well a signal-caller can still make things happen when the pockets closes in. We see what we see on tape, but having the numbers line up with that is a good clarifier.

And wow, do Alabama's Jones and BYU's Wilson pop here. Wilson certainly isn't surprising -- one of his best traits is his ability to extend plays, instinctively creating when forced to go off-schedule and adjusting his arm angle to hit windows. But Jones isn't the kind of QB who makes a lot of throws on the run or scrambles for big pickups when the pocket isn't clean. Instead, his ability to process quickly, get through his progressions and maneuver within the pocket stand out. And of course, he had a great offensive line and plenty of weapons to work with at Bama.

Parolin: Let's put Jones' numbers in context. The FBS average for QBR under pressure last season was 10.0, and no other QB in this exercise exceeded 44 (which is, by the way, also a great result). Yet Jones -- who was pressured 101 times last year, averaging 11.1 yards per attempt and throwing 13 TDs to only two interceptions on those plays -- managed to hit 78.3. Joe Burrow is the only first-round quarterback over the past decade to post a better number in a collegiate season (82.6).

McShay: I was a little surprised to see Trask perform so well here too. The Florida QB gets the ball out quickly, but I wouldn't have expected that kind of result. Ohio State's Fields struggled, which speaks to what we've said about his problems when the initial read isn't there. He will extend, and he is super tough in the pocket, but he wants to see his receivers open, which can be an issue when time is running out. Though, to be fair, nine of the 13 games in his sample came against ranked opponents. That matters.

Parolin: Lawrence's numbers under pressure might cause a raised eyebrow, but he also was really unlucky. To just look at this 13-game sample with Clemson, eight of the quarterbacks fared better. But four of those 13 games came in the College Football Playoff over the past two seasons. Those aren't easy opponents, to say the least. Lawrence posted an 88.0 Total QBR against the blitz in his career, which would be second best of the past seven QBs taken at first overall (Kyler Murray, 95.1).

McShay: And just to round out this area, Franks' struggles and Book's success under pressure match what I see on tape. Franks (Arkansas) has the arm, but he makes a lot of bad decisions under pressure and doesn't have a natural feel for it in the pocket. And Book (Notre Dame) is actually at his best when the initial play breaks down. He has quick feet in the pocket and can do damage when he tucks and runs.

Who thrives when airing it out?

McShay: If handling pressure is 1A for me, accuracy when driving the ball downfield is 1B. Give me a QB who can do both. And Jones and Wilson are right there at the top again, though the tape suggests Jones was bailed out on some deep-ball underthrows by Alabama's playmakers.

Parolin: The accuracy marks for Wilson are excellent. We have this data for the past 10 college seasons (2011-20), and Wilson's 13.2% deep-ball miss percentage in this sample would be the best career mark of any first-round QB in that time frame. But how about this? Franks actually completed a higher percentage of his deep balls than Wilson in their last 13 respective games -- and he did it with two different programs and against seven ranked opponents. (Franks transferred from Florida after the 2019 season.)

McShay: Yeah, for all his struggles under pressure, Franks makes up for it with arm strength. He can flick his wrist and launch a deep ball with some pretty good touch on it. The accuracy on the vertical throws for Trask and Fields isn't shocking, either. Fields' offense at Ohio State was more keen on shorter throws, but when asked to make a throw downfield, he can hit it.

Parolin: Lawrence is again lower than expected for an obvious top pick. He's hurt by his opponents in the sample for sure, but Sunday opponents won't be a step down in opposition, and the Jaguars did finish 1-15 last year, so he won't have the talent advantage for a while. But it's worth noting that despite a lower completion rate on his deep balls, his off-target percentage was third of the 13 quarterbacks here.

McShay: Mond (Texas A&M) and Lance (North Dakota State) struggled statistically on the vertical throws. For Mond, I get it. He has a strong arm, but he isn't super accurate with it, and that is backed up here. You can't be off-target on half of your throws beyond 20 yards. But Lance has arm strength and touch going downfield. His overall accuracy isn't stellar -- it's his biggest weakness -- but that tends to show up more on short-to-intermediate throws on tape.

Parolin: And it isn't a small sample size: Lance went 17 of 52 on throws at least 21 yards downfield over his past 13 games. The good news is 10 of those went for a touchdown and zero were picked off.

McShay: Lastly, it's worth pointing out Ehlinger (Texas). He has plenty of problems with deep throws, and the stat sheet matches what is in the tape. He's a competitive QB, but he misses on the deep ball too often.

Which QB hits his spots the best?

McShay: Simply put, Jones is an accurate quarterback. That Alabama scheme might have boosted his numbers here a little bit, but he just has great ball placement. Stanford's Mills jumps out a bit too, particularly impressing in the short range. He is getting a little bit of a push as we get closer to the draft. When he gets the ball out in rhythm and on time, he hits his spots, even though his mechanics are still inconsistent. And as a whole, he has been right there in the middle of the pack in most of these categories.

Parolin: I thought Mond was an interesting case. His short off-target percentage is really good, his intermediate number is pretty poor, and as discussed above, he's the only QB in the exercise to miss on at least half his deep balls. But the only QB worse than the FBS average in short, intermediate and deep-ball off-target percentage is Buechele (SMU).

McShay: Yeah, I actually thought this was one of Buechele's best categories, too. He lacks arm strength and mobility, but he is definitely better when targeting receivers inside 20 yards of the line of scrimmage, especially from the pocket. But the numbers aren't complimentary for him, at least relative to the rest of the pack. And Mond -- that's what his game is. His footwork and mechanics need to improve.

Parolin: How about this: Lawrence, Wilson, Fields, Jones and Trask are all better than a 9% miss rate on both short and intermediate throws, suggesting some strong accuracy. The lone missing QB of that upper tier is Lance, who checks in with the worst intermediate-range and second-worst short-range off-target percentages of the 13 QBs looked at here.

McShay: And to be honest, this matches perfectly with what I see on tape. His deep ball is actually the most consistent of his throws, but he struggles with ball placement on the shorter ones. And he wasn't asked to make many anticipatory throws at North Dakota State.

What kind of QB are you looking for?

Parolin: Three quarterbacks have a QBR above 80 both in and out of the pocket. Jones and Wilson are there again, but how about Book? He doesn't stand out in accuracy, but both of these high QBRs suggest there aren't many turnovers or untimely sacks whether he is in the pocket or on the move.

McShay: Yeah, I think some of that comes from Book's ability to run with the ball. He has a good feel in the pocket, avoids sacks and shows excellent vision as a ball carrier. I was more impressed with Jones of those three, though. I wouldn't have expected such a high QBR when he was forced outside the pocket. That's an outstanding number.

Parolin: I was interested by the vast difference between Trask's two numbers. There was a 33-point drop in Trask's QBR from inside the pocket (an excellent 86.6, 20 points clear of the FBS average) to outside (53.5 and second-to-last in this exercise). He showed out against pressure and proved very good against the blitz, suggesting he can hang in the pocket to deliver a throw. Just don't ask him to move too much.

McShay: Yeah, and Mond was the opposite. He excels when he is out and moving. Honestly, just about everything here passes the eye test.

Parolin: We don't have Lance's numbers in this category -- no QBR for FCS guys -- but I did pull the basic numbers for his play in and out of the pocket. And they are pretty strong in both spots. In the pocket, Lance completed 66.1% of his passes for 19 touchdowns and one interception over his past 13 games. And outside the pocket in that span, he completed 62.7% for 11 TDs and no picks. He averaged at least 8.5 yards per attempt in both situations.

McShay: Lance has fast eyes and great arm strength. I like the way he drops from center and gets through his progressions. But when he leaves the pocket, he can also extends plays and make off-platform throws. And if you left him find an opening in the run game, he will burn you with his bruising running style.

What does the NFL out route show us?

Parolin: Who cares about this? Well consider a 15-yard out route. A QB in the middle of the field is 80 feet from the sideline, meaning a "15-yard out" throw actually travels over 30 yards into what can be a very tight window. Rainbow-launch angles won't work with the sideline, and underthrows invite catastrophe. (Not all of these are traditional out routes, but this sample can give us a glimpse of how each prospect performed on throws they will need to make at the next level.)

McShay: Timing is everything. Quarterbacks have to anticipate, release the ball before the break and get it there with some zip on it. We get a good idea of a quarterback's arm strength, delivery timing and instincts all at once. But we also have to account for the receivers the quarterback is throwing to -- more talent on the outside means there is more leeway as to how on-target the QB needs to be.

Parolin: Fields looks really strong here. His 4.4% miss percentage is exceptional, especially considering the FBS average is almost 22%. Of the 45 midrange outside passes Fields has thrown over his last 13 games, only two were off-target -- and five went for touchdowns.

McShay: Yeah, I think his best throws are to the outside. He's more accurate there than when he is going inside, and his big-time arm shows up. He can drive the ball where it needs to go. Lawrence also looks pretty good in this section. The frustrating part about evaluating his game is the lack of intermediate and anticipatory throws in that Clemson offense, but the numbers show that he hits his spots on the more difficult NFL-caliber throws.

Parolin: Mond's inaccuracy pops up again. There were 163 quarterbacks who threw 25-plus of these attempts in a season over the last two years, and the only one who posted a worst completion percentage in a season than Mond's 22.9% in the sample was Syracuse's Tommy DeVito (16.7% in 2019).

McShay: I want to point out Georgia's Newman, who we haven't really mentioned yet. He loves throwing outside the numbers, especially the 9 route. He did it a bunch at Wake Forest before transferring. Newman places the ball high and lets his big receivers go up and get it. And he has the arm strength to get the ball there with velocity. But his accuracy falters when he has to be anticipatory with his throws.

What we learned

McShay: The stat sheet isn't the full story, but this serves as a cross-check for me, much like 40-yard dash times are for wide receivers, or arm length measurements are for offensive linemen. If it lines up with what you see on tape, great. If it doesn't, that's when we have to take another look. Here, a lot matches. And I'll say this: If you're drafting a quarterback strictly off the numbers, Jones is your guy.

Parolin: He was in the top four in all 10 stats we pulled, and he led in seven of them. That's downright impressive. But Wilson was also in the top four in eight of them, while Fields did so for six and Lawrence checked in for five of them. The top guys in most draft evaluations were also among the best in the number check.

McShay: Context is also pretty important. Lawrence, for instance, might not dominate every category here. But look at the consistency. He has put up strong numbers for three full seasons while playing against top-notch competition. You have to account for that, and it's another reason we can't just draft based on statistics. But when applied in the right way, the numbers are very helpful when sizing up a QB class.