With no NFL combine this week, it's a great time to press reset for the 2021 NFL draft and take stock of where we are two months out. Once we get through free agency in two weeks, we'll have a much clearer answer about team needs -- and where the quarterbacks will land in Round 1.
You've seen my latest projection at the top 32 picks and updated position rankings. Mike Tannenbaum told you what it's really like inside the interview room with prospects. And Todd McShay will have his third mock draft later this week. So I asked my readers for some help this week, and you all came through with questions for an early mailbag.
How would I rank the quarterbacks if last year's class was included? Who is a sleeper wide receiver to watch in April's draft? What would be the perfect scenario for the Raiders in Round 1? I've got answers for 15 questions. I even explained the time I almost went to work for an NFL team. Let's get to it. (Questions have been edited for clarity.)
If you combined the 2020 and 2021 classes, how would you rank the top 10 quarterbacks? (via @jdllaw23)
So if we're using my pre-draft rankings for last year's class, the top two is pretty easy. Trevor Lawrence is going to have one of the highest grades I've ever given (more on that Wednesday); he's the clear No. 1. And Joe Burrow was head-and-shoulders above the rest of last year's class. After that, it's very close, but I had slightly higher grades on two 2020 signal-callers.
My top 10 -- again, based on pre-draft grades -- looks like this:
Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
Joe Burrow, LSU
Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama
Justin Herbert, Oregon
Zach Wilson, BYU
Justin Fields, Ohio State
Mac Jones, Alabama
Trey Lance, North Dakota State
Jordan Love, Utah State
Jacob Eason, Washington/Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma
Tagovailoa didn't have a great rookie season, but the talent is there -- if Miami gets him some help. I've gone back and forth on Wilson and Fields in my rankings, but I'm giving Wilson the edge for now. There is a lot of demand for quarterbacks in this draft, which means Jones and Lance could go higher than they would in a normal year.
If Mac Jones goes in the top 10, could Kyle Trask sneak into Round 1? (via @DraftCfb)
I don't think so, but it's not because of where Jones gets drafted. Where Jones goes won't affect Trask -- every player is evaluated individually. Trask had a tremendous season -- 43 touchdown passes, eight picks and he ranked fifth in QBR -- but he has some limitations that will likely keep him out of the first round. He's not a stellar athlete, and he needs to improve when a play breaks down. His flaws really showed in the Cotton Bowl loss to Oklahoma. Still, I have a second-round grade on Trask, and he's going to get a chance to start in the NFL at some point.
Who's a quarterback sleeper in this class? (via @ModeFB)
It's Stanford's Davis Mills, who only started 11 games in college. He has intriguing traits in a 6-foot-4 frame. Even though he hasn't played much, he's my seventh-ranked quarterback and has a third-round grade. That's because of his arm talent, frame and ceiling -- NFL teams will consider him a project because it's rare that a QB with so few starts gets drafted. If he can come in and sit behind a starter for a year or two, he could develop into a starter.
What is the logic for high-drafting teams with multiple issues drafting a tight end in the top five? (via @JeffJezewski13)
I got a lot of these questions after my mock draft 2.0, with Jets fans curious about why I had their team taking Florida tight end Kyle Pitts after trading down to No. 4. It comes down to ... stop thinking of Pitts as just a tight end. Yes, he'd be the highest-drafted tight end in the common draft era, but he doesn't have the limitations of most tight ends. Would you be OK with the Jets taking a No. 1 receiver in the top five? Because that's what they'd be getting, a guy who could get 10 targets per game and score a bunch of touchdowns.
Because of Pitts' size, length and speed, he's really a matchup threat who can line up all over the formation. He's in a different category than any player I can remember, and he has an elite grade from me.
Which team is under the most pressure to 'hit' in the first three rounds of this draft? (via @time_advantage)
Speaking of the Jets, I think they fit here. They've been in the cellar of the AFC East for years, have another new coach and have the picks to turn things around quickly. They have two first-round picks (Nos. 2 and 23), a very high second-round pick (No. 34) and two third-rounders (Nos. 66 and 87). This is a huge draft for general manager Joe Douglas, and it starts with the Sam Darnold decision.
If Douglas & Co. want to stick with Darnold at quarterback for another year, they have to get him some weapons so they can get a fuller evaluation. If they deal Darnold -- they could get a second- or third-rounder for him, I think -- they're almost certainly taking a quarterback with the No. 2 pick, but they still need to help him out. So they need to add offensive playmakers and boost the depth of talent on defense. It's not easy, but they have the capital to do it -- if they hit on their picks.
What are the strengths and weaknesses of this draft? (via @conmann88)
The position groups of strength are at wide receiver, offensive line and cornerback. There could be three receivers in the top 10 picks, and it's deep throughout. There will be Day 2 picks who make an impact as rookies. As far as offensive line, this is one of the best classes for tackles in the last decade. There could be four or five picked in Round 1. It's a talented and loaded crop of corners, too -- I expect a bunch of starters to go in the second round.
The biggest weakness is the lack of pure, 4-3 hand-in-the-dirt defensive ends. There's no Myles Garrett or Joey Bosa at the top of the class, and even guys like Gregory Rousseau (quick-twitch ability) and Kwity Paye (production) have major flaws. Of course, teams always covet edge rushers, so we're likely going to see a few prospects get overdrafted.
What's the best-case scenario for a defensive player for the Raiders at No. 17? (via @geojonny75)
I think it's what I laid out on my mock draft 2.0, with TCU safety Trevon Moehrig falling to Vegas. He's the top safety on the board -- the only safety with a first-round grade from me -- and a player who can cover the deep half of the field and relieve pressure on the Raiders' corners. They should be thrilled if Moehrig is still available.
I could also see general manager Mike Mayock and coach Jon Gruden targeting Notre Dame's Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, a sideline-to-sideline linebacker who has speed and a nose for the football. This Raiders team is not that far away from contending, but they have to shore up the back seven of their defense.
Which Day 2 pick will have the biggest impact as a rookie? (via @tagaboutnothing)
I'll give you one on both sides of the ball. Ole Miss wide receiver Elijah Moore is a magnet to the football and one of the best slot wideouts in this class. He's likely to be taken in the second round. He'll find an early role in the slot, catching passes in the middle of the field and picking up first downs. He caught 86 passes for 1,193 yards and eight touchdowns last season.
I also really like UCF safety Richie Grant, who had 10 career picks in college and added two forced fumbles last season. He has some range as a free safety, and he could be an early starter. I expect him to be picked early in Round 2.
Rate the top three pure linebackers in this class. (via @THEFOGG1982)
My top three:
Micah Parsons, Penn State
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame
Nick Bolton, Missouri
More and more, I think Parsons will end up as a middle linebacker, though he has the athletic traits to be an edge rusher too. He can make the most impact as an off-ball linebacker. Owusu-Koramoah is a heat-seeking missile who can wreck plays. Bolton doesn't get a ton of publicity, but he's a really solid player. I wouldn't be surprised if he snuck into the bottom of Round 1.
Could we see the most Round 1 offensive players ever in this draft? (via @blakemichael1)
The record for first-round offensive prospects is 19, which happened in 2009, 2004 and 1968 (thanks to the fine folks at ESPN Stats & Info for their help here). That's absolutely doable in the 2021 class. I had 18 in my mock draft 2.0, and that was without any running backs. Reaching the record is possible, because as I mentioned, it's another deep class of wideouts, and I could even see another offensive lineman crack the top 32 picks. This record is in jeopardy.
Who's an underrated running back to know in this draft? (via @JayC9099)
I like the way Oregon State's Jermar Jefferson plays. He's my eighth-ranked back. He runs hard and also can catch the ball. He rushed for 2,923 yards and 27 touchdowns over the past three seasons, and he caught 43 passes. He's going to be a Day 3 pick, but he can play -- he hasn't been talked about enough over the past year.
Who is a late-round sleeper at wide receiver? (via @JGribbs15)
I'll give you two. UCF's Jacob Harris is 6-foot-5 with soft hands. He averaged 20.1 yards per catch over the past two seasons, with eight scores in 2020.
You can actually watch the other sleeper wideout this spring, as FCS school Nicholls State is playing its season that was postponed in the fall. Dai'Jean Dixon is another big target (6-foot-4), and he had a 1,000-yard season in 2019. He can find the end zone with the ball in his hands; he has 21 touchdowns since he entered school in 2017.
Will anyone in the FCS that is playing in the spring get drafted? (via @benjamin_vns)
I mentioned Nicholls State's Dai'Jean Dixon, but another FCS prospect to watch is Illinois State's Drew Himmelman, a 6-foot-9, 315-pound offensive tackle who has started 36 games in his Redbirds career. Himmelman has good feet -- he played basketball in high school -- and is a high-character prospect. He plays left tackle for Illinois State. He could be an early Day 3 pick.
Can you be the Chicago Bears GM? (via @ztech06)
No. I have a great job. But this does give me the opportunity to tell you about the time I almost did work in the NFL. Back in 1983, I accepted a job with the Baltimore Colts. Ernie Accorsi was the general manager at the time, and he called me up and offered a job in the personnel department. I went through all of the clearances with the league, and I was going to start in July and prepare for the 1984 draft.
Then Accorsi called. He didn't feel good about his job status, and there were rumblings that the Colts would move out of the city. The deal fell through. Five months later, I got a call from ESPN. The 1984 draft was my first with the company. Accorsi ended up being right -- the Colts moved to Indianapolis that year. Accorsi resigned and went on to work for the Browns and Giants.
Pizza with or without pineapple? (via @cmacinchevalley)
This is the easiest question so far. Definitely without. If I'm eating pineapple, it's going to be on a pineapple upside-down cake. I love pizza, but I don't eat it with cheese. I take it off. I just like sauce as the topping. The best.