The Buccaneers' dominant Super Bowl win on Sunday closed the 2020 NFL season and swung open the door on what promises to be an eventful and unusual offseason -- which of course includes the 2021 NFL draft. The Tampa Bay defense showcased what smart drafting can do for a team, with recent early-round picks Devin White and Antoine Winfield Jr. each hauling in an interception. Which team will make savvy moves in this year's draft to take the next step? Let's predict how all 32 selections of the first round will play out on April 29.
Despite the lack of a traditional combine this year, there is still plenty of time for movement on draft boards. Interviews, medicals, pro day workouts and more digging into the game tape lie ahead. Likewise, much has changed in just one month since my last mock after an exciting College Football Playoff national title game and the annual Senior Bowl week. We are still more than two months out and have much to learn about this talented class -- including how the quarterbacks and playmakers stack up.
But with the draft order locked in after Game No. 269 of the season and plenty of talent in this year's class to be excited about, here is my post-Super Bowl projection of the opening 32 picks of the 2021 NFL draft, starting with a no-brainer at No. 1. And surprise -- we have two mock trades in this edition.
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Jump to a trade: No. 3 | No. 12
1. Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
Another mock draft, another Lawrence-to-Jacksonville projection. You won't be seeing much of anything else, and for good reason. The 6-foot-6 big-armed quarterback has all the traits you want in a franchise guy, and he would be the focal point of what new coach Urban Meyer hopes to build. Only Washington has a lower Total QBR over the past three seasons than the Jaguars' 41.6, but Lawrence has finished in the top 10 among all FBS quarterbacks in that category in every season of his college career. He will throw for scouts on Friday ahead of surgery on his non-throwing shoulder this spring, but consider him a lock for the top pick at this point.
2. New York Jets
Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
What the Jets do here will alter how the draft plays out -- but this projection is more about the spot than the team because, frankly, the Jets have some evaluating and decision-making ahead. We know they are listening to offers for QB Sam Darnold, but that doesn't necessarily mean they are aggressively pursuing a trade. Regardless, this much is pretty clear to me: If Darnold is traded, Wilson should be the pick. And if New York keeps Darnold, I think a team -- perhaps Carolina -- will jump on the chance to move up to take Wilson here.
The BYU signal-caller is tough in the pocket but can also create when it all breaks down, and he excelled on the deep ball this season, hitting 20 of 27 passes thrown at least 30 yards downfield.
Trade: Carolina moves up the board
OK, my guy Mel Kiper Jr. waived the no-trade clause on our mocks, so let's have at it. The Panthers give the Dolphins a call in this scenario, seeing a chance to jump the line to get a quarterback at No. 3. Miami originally acquired this pick via an August 2019 trade with the Texans but now hand over the selection to Carolina in exchange for the No. 8 pick, the Panthers' second-rounder (No. 39) and a 2022 first-rounder. It's a great haul for the Dolphins, who just barely missed the playoffs this season and can now build even further around QB Tua Tagovailoa. But it's also a good price for the Panthers, who need their QB of the future.
3. Carolina Panthers (via mock trade with MIA through HOU)
Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
Eight of the Panthers' 11 losses were one-score games, running back Christian McCaffrey missed most of the season and the defense was an improved unit this year. But Carolina needs a QB it can build around. Teddy Bridgewater is under contract for two more years -- with a potential out after the 2021 campaign -- and can serve as a bridge, but his 15-to-11 TD-INT ratio in 2020 left a lot to be desired.
The quarterback-to-Carolina rhetoric isn't new, but some might be surprised to see Lance as the pick rather than Ohio State's Justin Fields. Both possess strong arms, both are highly competitive, both are sturdy in the pocket and can pick up chunks when they decide to tuck it and run, and both can hit the deep ball. But in going back to the tape, I think Lance goes through his progressions a little quicker than Fields, who gets stuck on his primary read too often. It's tight, but I think Lance has an edge.
4. Atlanta Falcons
Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
Atlanta will want to move out of this spot and pick up some extra draft capital, and plenty of other teams likely will be interested. It needs reinforcements at edge, offensive line, running back, tight end and linebacker. Quarterback, however, is not a dire situation, as Matt Ryan is still highly productive and under contract through 2023. But if the Falcons can't trade out, will they really pass on the opportunity to draft their QB of the future? It's no given that they will be drafting this high again any time soon, and Ryan is turning 36.
Fields has consistency concerns, but he will be a talented NFL starter with an ability to drive the ball and make plays off-schedule outside of the pocket. In two seasons as the Buckeyes' starter, he has 63 touchdown passes and just nine interceptions. If it plays out like this, it would be the first time that quarterbacks have gone 1-2-3-4 to begin Round 1.
5. Cincinnati Bengals
Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
Cincinnati fans watched No. 1 overall pick Joe Burrow take 32 sacks in 10 games, so no one needs any convincing here. Sewell -- who opted out of the 2020 season -- is a game-changing tackle. Opposite Jonah Williams, he'd help keep Burrow upright when the Bengals' franchise quarterback returns from a knee injury suffered on (yup, you guessed it) a hit this season. Whereas Sewell allowed just one combined sack during the 2018 and 2019 seasons, the Bengals closed 2020 with the fifth-most sacks allowed (48) and tied for the third-worst pass block win rate (50.0%), an ESPN metric powered by NFL Next Gen Stats.
6. Philadelphia Eagles
Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU
The Eagles' wide receivers room ranked No. 30 in yards this season (2,082), and they were one of three teams to catch fewer than 60% of their WR targets (56.3%). Those numbers came even after they drafted Jalen Reagor in the first round last April. The Eagles need to give quarterback Jalen Hurts -- who is taking the reins as the team moves on from Carson Wentz -- tools to succeed, and that, of course, starts with a game-breaker on the outside.
Chase vs. Alabama's DeVonta Smith is a tough call, but I think Chase might have slightly better traits and certainly more size at 6 feet, 200-plus pounds. You might have forgotten because he opted out in 2020, but Chase had 20 touchdowns and nearly 1,800 yards in 2019. It's win-win for Philadelphia if both receivers are still on the board, but the LSU product gets the call here.
7. Detroit Lions
DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
If Philly is on the clock and both Chase and Smith are still available, you'll see some smiles from new coach Dan Campbell and new QB Jared Goff. It would mean one of the talented pass-catchers would be there for them. Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones Jr. and Danny Amendola are all pending free agents, meaning the most productive wide receiver on the roster returning right now is Quintez Cephus, a fifth-round rookie who had 349 yards in 2020. It's a problem, but not one that the Heisman winner can't help solve. Smith is explosive, piling on 1,856 yards and 23 touchdowns in his senior year.
8. Miami Dolphins (via mock trade with CAR)
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
So in our mock trade scenario, Miami picks up an extra first-rounder and a second-rounder and it still gets an elusive playmaker on offense. Tagovailoa was ranked 35th out of 35 qualified quarterbacks this season in yards per attempt when targeting wide receivers (6.2), and the WR group was No. 30 in the NFL in yards after the catch per reception (3.18). Waddle caught 48 passes from Tagovailoa during their Bama days together, and he'd be a dangerous option opposite DeVante Parker.
This would not only be the first time a school has sent multiple wide receivers to the first round in back-to-back years, it would also be the first time two from the same school have been off the board this quickly. (The previous high was last year, when Alabama's Henry Ruggs III and Jerry Jeudy were off the board by No. 15.)
9. Denver Broncos
Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
We will have to see if new GM George Paton decides to run it back with Drew Lock as the team's clear starting QB, but with four signal-callers off the board and the Broncos' pick of any defender in the class, they would likely address another need at No. 9 regardless. Cornerback happens to be one of those needs. Bryce Callahan is primed to hit the open market, and Denver hauled in only 10 interceptions this season. Surtain didn't have his best season, but he's a true shutdown corner with the instincts to read and reroute receivers.
10. Dallas Cowboys
Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
Big D needs help on D. Last year's second-rounder, Trevon Diggs, looks like a solid find for the Cowboys, but that secondary is still problematic -- especially now that Chidobe Awuzie and Jourdan Lewis could be headed elsewhere in free agency. The Cowboys allowed 34 passing touchdowns this season, tied for the third most in the NFL. Farley (another opt-out) is a ball hawk who could turn some of those TD passes into interceptions.
11. New York Giants
Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
With the top three wide receivers and top two cornerbacks off the board, filling those needs would mean significant reaches for the Giants here. Offensive line could be in play, as could the edge rush. But if Pitts is still there at No. 11, it'd be really hard for New York to do anything but add the 6-6 speedy and versatile matchup nightmare. Giants tight end Evan Engram has missed 14 games over four years and will be a free agent after next season. In the meantime, the Giants could enjoy a fantastic duo at tight end -- Pitts is versatile enough to play with Engram and be moved around the formation -- and provide quarterback Daniel Jones with a playmaker.
Trade: Chicago makes a play for a QB
Another trade! Four quarterbacks went in the first four picks, and in this scenario, the Bears didn't fully address quarterback via free agency or trade. That means it's now or never for Chicago, and it pulls the trigger on a move up the board in the middle of the first round. So what gets it done? To land the No. 12 pick from San Francisco, the Bears would have to send their own first-rounder (No. 20) and a second-rounder (No. 52), probably along with a 2022 first- or second-rounder.
This is more than the traditional trade-value chart expects, and whether that '22 pick is of the Day 1 or Day 2 variety would depend on how desperate Chicago is for the last true Round 1 QB still out there. Niners GM John Lynch could maybe throw a midrounder back to the Bears to sweeten the deal and get it done.
12. Chicago Bears (via mock trade with SF)
Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
This would tie the earliest that five quarterbacks have been drafted in the common draft era (1999), but the Bears didn't want to risk missing out on the player I consider the final Round 1-worthy QB. If there is a run on quarterbacks, then the Bears have to do what they have to do here. Mitchell Trubisky played pretty well down the stretch, but after declining his fifth-year option, Chicago is likely looking at other options. This season, the Bears were 25th in Total QBR and 28th in yards per attempt, and they tied for the fourth-most interceptions thrown.
Jones had a fantastic 41-to-4 TD-INT ratio and led the nation in Total QBR at 96.1. He anticipates well and has a nice touch on his deep throws, and Chicago would hope he can spark one of the NFL's least efficient offenses.
13. Los Angeles Chargers
Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern
The Chargers were middle-of-the-pack with 34 sacks allowed in 2020, but they saw QB pressure on 33.5% of their dropbacks (eighth in the NFL). Not what you want when you have a rookie quarterback whom you are trying to build around. Los Angeles will have free-agency concerns all over that offensive line in the near future, too. So how about drafting a talented and versatile tackle who can pop inside to play guard or center? Slater opted out in 2020, but he would help give quarterback Justin Herbert time in the passing game.
It's worth pointing out, though, that the Chargers could go in a lot of directions. They are facing quite a few free-agency questions this March, and how that plays out will directly impact the focus of this pick.
14. Minnesota Vikings
Alijah Vera-Tucker, OT/G, USC
Minnesota will take a long look at the pass-rushers on the board, and it might decide someone like TCU safety Trevon Moehrig is worth the grab here. But the Vikings' offense starts with a good zone-blocking scheme, and Vera-Tucker excels there, with a feel for angles and blocking at the second level. I like how Ezra Cleveland, last year's second-rounder, has fit into the Minnesota offensive line puzzle, but more help is needed in protecting quarterback Kirk Cousins and springing running back Dalvin Cook on big runs. Plus, Vera-Tucker can play tackle or guard.
15. New England Patriots
Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
No, one of the top five quarterbacks isn't available, but this isn't a bad consolation prize for coach Bill Belichick. Parsons -- my No. 4 prospect overall -- slides to the No. 15 pick here because of unique circumstances following a rush on QBs and wide receivers. Dont'a Hightower will be back after opting out of the 2020 season and Chase Winovich has been disruptive off the edge, but Parsons gives Belichick a true sideline-to-sideline linebacker who can do a little bit of everything. And if the team moves on from Hightower after the 2021 season when he is set to be a free agent, Parsons would be the QB of this defense going forward.
As for QB of the offense, it doesn't seem to be in New England's nature to trade up for one. Watch the free-agent market closely and keep an eye on what happens with former Patriot Jimmy Garoppolo, but if it comes down to the draft, the Patriots might have to look to Day 2 if all five QBs are indeed off the board.
16. Arizona Cardinals
Gregory Rousseau, DE/OLB, Miami (FL)
Finally, an edge rusher. The last time it took this long to see one drafted was 2004, when Will Smith went to the Saints at No. 18. But you won't hear any complaints from the Cardinals, who can jump on an opportunity to slide in a difference-maker opposite Chandler Jones (who is a free agent after next season). The Cardinals were tied for fourth in sacks this season (48), but 12.5 of those came from Haason Reddick, who is hitting the open market this spring. Rousseau opted out in 2020 but trailed only Chase Young in sacks in the FBS the season prior with 15.5.
17. Las Vegas Raiders
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
The Raiders spent last spring bringing in Cory Littleton and Nick Kwiatkoski at linebacker, but the unit didn't help a defense that surrendered the eighth-most yards per game in 2020, and Raekwon McMillan is now a free agent. Owusu-Koramoah gives the Raiders a little bit of everything and something they don't already have in that LB corps. He can play off the ball in overhang, he can cover and he can rush the QB. This is a true value pick in the middle of the first round, and the Notre Dame game-breaker provides versatility to a defense that is begging for help.
There are holes all over. The pass rush generated all of 21 sacks this season, and the run defense allowed north of 125 yards per game. And let's not forget that Derek Carr has two years left on his deal and at least some QB consideration needs to be made if one or more of the top quarterbacks are still here at No. 17.
18. Miami Dolphins
Jaelan Phillips, DE, Miami
After getting Tagovailoa a receiver at No. 8, let's turn our attention to the defense and keep a strength exactly that. Miami had 41 sacks in 2020, tied for 10th in the NFL, but the rich get richer with Phillips, who racked up eight of his own this season. The Dolphins will love his suddenness and length coming around the corner. And looking ahead to 2022, he'd ease a potential loss of Emmanuel Ogbah or Jerome Baker in free agency.
19. Washington Football Team
Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida
Toney isn't the most polished receiver in the class, but he is ultraversatile and offensive coordinator Scott Turner could get very creative with the way the team uses him. After Terry McLaurin (1,118 yards), you have to look all the way down to Cam Sims (477) for the second-most productive WR on Washington this season. Toney caught 10 touchdowns with the Gators in 2020.
And of course, Washington is another QB-needy franchise. But Alex Smith is still under contract, and the team can afford to wait it out if no one falls to it in this spot. Washington could handle this in free agency or via a trade, too.
20. San Francisco 49ers (via mock trade with CHI)
Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU
Remember that we had the Niners trade back to this spot. The Garoppolo decision looms large for the Niners' draft plan, and what happens there might not only keep San Francisco from trading down but might even influence a trade up into the top 10. For now, though, let's fixate on a secondary losing many pieces. Safety Jimmie Ward is currently the only defensive back on the entire roster under contract beyond next season. Perhaps the 49ers look to cornerbacks Jaycee Horn (South Carolina) or Aaron Robinson (UCF), but the value and need of Moehrig is just too great to miss. He's my No. 13 prospect and picked off six passes over the past two seasons.
21. Indianapolis Colts
Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan
Maybe Virginia Tech offensive tackle Christian Darrisaw is the play, replacing Anthony Castonzo. Perhaps cornerback is a focus. But with three of the team's top defensive ends out of contract -- Justin Houston, Denico Autry and Al-Quadin Muhammad -- I think replenishing the edge is going to be critical. Drafting Paye gives the Colts a playmaker (he had 8.5 sacks over his last 16 college games) and simultaneously blocks a division rival with a big need in that place set to pick next.
22. Tennessee Titans
Azeez Ojulari, OLB, Georgia
Tennessee had 13 sacks through 15 games before getting four in a Week 17 matchup with a dreadful Texans line. Don't let the five sacks in the AFC wild-card playoffs fool you, either. Edge rushing is by far the biggest problem for the Titans, especially after the one-year deals for Jadeveon Clowney and Vic Beasley didn't work out. Ojulari is certainly a start after the Titans suffered a net decline of 24 sacks from 2019 to 2020. I love his first-step quickness and "dip-and-rip" move coming around the corner.
23. New York Jets (via SEA)
Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
We got them a quarterback. Now let's get them a running back. The Jets were one of two teams with single-digit rushing touchdowns this season, and their 4.1 yards per carry tied for the sixth worst in the NFL. Scoring won't be a problem for Etienne; he had 78 touchdowns over his four-year career at Clemson. And while this could be Alabama running back Najee Harris, Etienne gives the Jets a little more explosiveness to La'Mical Perine's power.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers
Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
What becomes of Bud Dupree's role if he leaves, and would someone like Tulsa outside linebacker Zaven Collins be the savvy pick? What is the future plan at quarterback? Who starts at running back next season? And would the Steelers look to replace JuJu Smith-Schuster with a similar type of receiver in Minnesota's Rashod Bateman? Those are all important questions, but to me, the need along the offensive line and the value of Darrisaw still being available make this a worthy move.
The Steelers could lose all of their currently rostered tackles either this March or next, and whoever is under center has to have the kind of protection Ben Roethlisberger saw this season (league-low 14 sacks allowed). Darrisaw shows power in pass pro and smoothness in working to the second level as a run blocker.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars (via LAR)
Levi Onwuzurike, DT, Washington
In theory, the Jags could immediately give Lawrence either an offensive lineman or a receiver outside, but my guess is they split their two first-rounders on offense and defense. The secondary has to be sorted and the run defense needs shoring up. We'll look to the latter after Jacksonville was gashed for 153.3 rushing yards per game in 2020, the third most in the NFL. And if your argument is that much of that came in garbage time with opponents holding big leads, look no further than the 4.7 yards per carry allowed, a bottom-five number. Onwuzurike, an opt-out who impressed at the Senior Bowl, is a disruptive 3-technique with lots of quickness up the middle.
26. Cleveland Browns
Zaven Collins, OLB, Tulsa
I mocked Collins to the Browns a month ago as well, and nothing has changed for a team certainly ready to contend for a Super Bowl. Myles Garrett can't be the only effective pass-rusher on this roster, and after hovering in the middle of the league in sacks for the past few years (34, 37, 38 and 39 sacks in the past four seasons), Cleveland needs to make the jump with its edge rush to truly challenge in the AFC. Collins -- who would be Tulsa's second first-rounder in the common draft era -- has versatility and burst.
27. Baltimore Ravens
Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
There are definitely wide receiver options for a team that got very little out of the position this season, including Minnesota's Bateman and Ole Miss' Elijah Moore. An edge rusher could also be in the mix. But weighing need against value, Horn -- a midseason opt-out -- pops as the most logical pick here. He's long and instinctive, and he tends to play his best in big games. The son of former NFL receiver Joe Horn, he would fit in nicely with a secondary that could use depth behind Marcus Peters, Marlon Humphrey and Jimmy Smith.
But again, I wouldn't be surprised to see Baltimore go the pass-catcher route in the first round for the fourth time in the past seven drafts (Marquise Brown, Hayden Hurst and Breshad Perriman).
28. New Orleans Saints
Jalen Mayfield, OT, Michigan
This one is a tougher read because the Saints have some questions that will be answered in free agency. The secondary is littered with holes at the moment, and inside linebacker requires some attention. (Missouri's Nick Bolton could be someone to watch.) And who will be under center?
All that aside, Mayfield makes sense. New Orleans has found success in taking linemen early, as it did with Cesar Ruiz last April, Erik McCoy in the second round in 2019 and Ryan Ramczyk at the tail end of Round 1 in 2017. I like Mayfield in rotation inside as a rookie and then sliding back to his natural position outside at tackle in 2022 if the Saints aren't able to return both Ramczyk and Terron Armstead after next season. His power would help open lanes for running back Alvin Kamara.
29. Green Bay Packers
Aaron Robinson, CB, UCF
I'm relenting on my crusade to get quarterback Aaron Rodgers first-round help. If the board falls this way, Bateman (Minnesota), Moore (Ole Miss), Terrace Marshall Jr. (LSU) and Tutu Atwell (Louisville) would all be available here, and the Packers could even add Harris at running back to alleviate a potential loss of free agent Aaron Jones. But frankly, it's clear at this point that the Packers are more likely to add a receiver or running back on Day 2, perhaps even one of those five names. Why project something if history tells us it won't happen?
Plus, it wasn't the Green Bay offense that raised an eyebrow in the NFC Championship Game. Outside of Jaire Alexander, the secondary got torched by Tom Brady all day long. Robinson is a playmaker with 16 passes broken up and three interceptions over the past two seasons, and he comes with size and versatility in coverage.
30. Buffalo Bills
Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
It has been three years since we had multiple running backs in Round 1, and Kiper will shake his head at this pick, but the Bills' run offense was a visible issue during their playoff run. Quarterback Josh Allen led the team in rushing over three games with 145 yards, and no running back broke 65 in total. During the regular season, the Bills averaged 4.2 yards per carry, but no player broke 700 yards on the ground.
Devin Singletary looks more effective as a third-down back, and Zack Moss struggled to stay healthy this season. After spending third-rounders on each of them over the past two drafts, it's time for Buffalo to get a true difference-maker in the run game to balance the Allen-Stefon Diggs connection in the pass game. Harris showcased his strength, size and speed en route to 1,466 rushing yards and 26 rushing touchdowns this season.
31. Kansas City Chiefs
Joe Tryon, DE, Washington
The snap reaction here will be to throw picks at the offensive line after that unit was bullied on Sunday by the Bucs. It's not a bad call, with some pieces headed to free agency this year (Austin Reiter, Daniel Kilgore, Mike Remmers and Kelechi Osemele). And while Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz were out of the Super Bowl with injuries, and Laurent Duvernay-Tardiff of course opted out, all three will be on their final contract years in 2021 as well. Does GM Brett Veach go get a tackle like Teven Jenkins (Oklahoma State) or James Hudson (Cincinnati)? It's very possible.
I'm looking to the edge on defense, though. Another opt-out, Tryon is scheme-versatile and effective in getting to the QB with both his swim move and a quick spin move. The Chiefs were 19th in the NFL with 32 sacks this year, and Alex Okafor -- who was second on the team among edge rushers with three sacks -- is a free agent.
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
Super Bowl champions don't typically come with flaws, and this Bucs team is indeed a complete roster. Or at least it was. Free-agency concerns loom for most of the dominant defensive front seven that kept the Chiefs' high-octane offense scoreless on Sunday. Shaquil Barrett, Lavonte David, Ndamukong Suh, Rakeem Nunez-Roches and Steve McLendon headline the guys without a deal at the moment, and Tampa Bay won't be able to bring them all back.
But luckily Barmore is still on the board as Day 1 gets ready to close down shop, and he provides the Buccaneers with versatility along the line, a developing pass-rush skill set and power run-stopping. The champs could also seek a wide receiver to fill the void left by Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown if either or both leave this offseason.