2021 NFL draft sleepers: Mel Kiper, Todd McShay make picks, plus Big Ten prospects to watch, risers, more

What do we know a few weeks into the 2020 college football season? Clemson and Alabama are great. The Big 12 is not. Trevor Lawrence looks like the clear No. 1 prospect for the 2021 NFL draft, but the quarterbacks behind him are still jumbled. And now, with the Big Ten officially kicking off its season this weekend, we can get a closer look at a whole conference's worth of top prospects.

NFL draft analysts Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay give their first-round sleepers for April's draft, pick six Big Ten prospects to watch, then run through prospects who are rising and under-the-radar players you should know.

Potential first-round sleepers for the 2021 NFL draft

These are the prospects who are trending toward first-round grades:

Najee Harris, RB, Alabama

Harris is likely to be my new top-ranked running back when I reshuffle my rankings. What is most impressive is his ball security: He has fumbled only once on 515 career touches. The downside is that he is going to finish his college career with well over 600 touches, so he will have some tread on his tires when he enters the NFL. Still, he can be a first-round back. Harris can run well between the tackles or bounce it outside; he has great patience to find his hole. He has improved as a receiver. And he can make tough yards on his own. Harris already has 11 rushing touchdowns in four games. He could be in the Heisman Trophy discussion by the time the season ends. -- Kiper

Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU

When I finished my summer tape study looking ahead to the 2021 class, I didn't think there was much of a grade difference between Moehrig and Oregon's Jevon Holland, who is widely considered the top safety in this group. Holland is No. 20 in my rankings, whereas Moehrig is No. 22.

Moehrig is tough in run support and above-average in open-field tackling ability. But the 6-foot-2, 202-pound defensive back really shines in pass defense, where he shows good closing speed and breaks quickly on the ball. And what I like most is his playmaking skill. That's the most important quality when evaluating safeties: Can you get the ball back to the offense? Moehrig can do just that, as evidenced by his four interceptions and 11 passes broken up in 12 games last season. -- McShay

Rashawn Slater, C, Northwestern

To be clear, Slater won't be playing football this fall. He decided to opt out and won't opt back in. He has 26 career starts at right tackle, and he started 11 games at left tackle last season, but Slater projects as an interior guy at the next level because of shorter arm length. I have him as a center prospect, but he could absolutely play guard in the NFL too. Slater has so much talent, showcasing great feet, excellent feel for angles in the run game and very good body control in pass protection. The 6-foot-3, 305-pound lineman is 28th on my board at the moment and the second-highest interior offensive lineman behind Tennessee's Trey Smith. -- McShay

Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina

Horn was going to be on this list even before his great performance on Saturday, when he picked off two passes in the Gamecocks' 30-22 win over Auburn. Check out the traits he showed on his first pick as he dove in front of the receiver. The second was more fortuitous, but Horn was in the right position to grab it. He is just a super impressive defensive back with great length -- a legit 6-foot-1 -- and instincts, and he can lock down wideouts. He can play in press and off coverage. Horn, the son of former NFL wide receiver Joe Horn, has really improved over the past two seasons, when he had 17 combined pass breakups. Now, I'd love to see him finish on more plays; those two INTs on Saturday were the first of his career. Horn has the talent, though, to be a first-rounder in April. -- Kiper

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Horn dives to pick off Nix's pass

South Carolina DB Jaycee Horn picks off Bo Nix's pass in traffic to earn his first career interception.

Nick Bolton, ILB, Missouri

When you look strictly at his speed and 6-foot, 232-pound frame, Bolton doesn't seem like a first-round talent. In fact, I didn't have him ranked in my top 200 heading into the season. But study his tape a bit further and you start to see the type of player you want on your roster. Bolton is always prepared, leaves nothing on the field and has some pop to his game. And he plays a lot faster than his straight-line speed would indicate because he has such good instincts and locates the ball so quickly. He had 107 tackles, two interceptions and a sack last season, and he already has 36 tackles and a fumble recovery in three games this year. Keep an eye on him, especially when Mizzou sees Florida's high-powered offense on Halloween. -- McShay

Big Ten prospects to watch

The Big Ten kicks off its season this weekend, and here's who we're keeping a close eye on:

Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

First game: vs. Nebraska, Saturday (noon ET, Fox)

This is the obvious one. After Penn State's Micah Parsons, who opted out of the season, Fields is the highest-ranked Big Ten player on my board at No. 6 overall (and the second-ranked QB behind Trevor Lawrence). Fields has a prototypical build for a QB (6-foot-3, 228 pounds), displays above-average accuracy and puts great zip on his throws thanks to a good arm and quick release. He works off-platform pretty well, changing arm angles when necessary, and shows strength when moving around the pocket. It all amounted to 3,273 passing yards, 41 touchdown throws, three interceptions, 10 rushing scores and the nation's third-best Total QBR (92.1) in 2019.

In 2020? I want to see how he handles pressure after a full season under center. That starts before the snap: recognizing potential pass-rushers and setting his protection. That will be key for the junior in taking the next step this season. -- McShay

Jayson Oweh, DE/OLB, Penn State

First game: at Indiana, Saturday (3:30 p.m. ET, FS1)

Oweh is a prospect I really just want to watch more closely, and he is going to be the key guy for the Penn State defense after potential top-10 pick Micah Parsons opted out of the season. Oweh is only a third-year sophomore, but he has rare physical talent. Oweh (6-foot-5, 255 pounds) caught my eye last season when he was in the pass-rushing rotation, and he had five sacks and two forced fumbles. He started just one game, but he showed flashes of dominance as a speed rusher off the edge. I think Oweh has double-digit sack potential, even in this shortened season. Can he hold up against the run? That will be something to watch. -- Kiper

Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota

First game: vs. Michigan, Saturday (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC)

I love wide receiver prospects like Bateman. With just average speed but a big, strong frame, he has some JuJu Smith-Schuster, Michael Thomas and Michael Pittman Jr. to him. Bateman is a crafty, precise route runner, using his physicality to generate separation, work the middle of the field and eat up zone coverage. He is terrific in adjusting his 6-foot-2, 210-pound body to the ball in the air, can pluck on the run and has a big catch radius, leading to 60 receptions for 1,219 yards (20.3 per catch) and 11 scores in 2019. He has some versatility in where he lines up too. I'm excited to see what my No. 7 overall prospect can do this season. -- McShay

Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan

First game: at Minnesota, Saturday (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN app)

I had Paye on my preseason Big Board too, but I mentioned that it was more about his upside and not what he had shown on film. He is an enormous talent who just hasn't put up big numbers yet (6.5 sacks last season), but he will test off the charts at the combine. The 6-foot-4, 272-pound Paye disrupts plays, but I want to see that talent turn into production. Can he take his game to an elite level? He could be a top-15 pick if he shows that, because, again, he's going to light up the combine. -- Kiper

Shaun Wade, CB, Ohio State

First game: vs. Nebraska, Saturday (noon ET, Fox)

Wade was No. 7 on my preseason Big Board, and this is really about watching him in his first season as the guy at Ohio State. He played with two first-round cornerbacks in Jeff Okudah and Damon Arnette last season, but now Wade is going to be the most targeted corner on the team. Can he live up to the hype? He was stellar in the slot in 2019, with three interceptions and eight total pass breakups, and he'll get more outside reps this season. I'm glad Wade decided to opt back in to the season. -- Kiper

Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State

First game: vs. Nebraska, Saturday (noon ET, Fox)

My No. 17 overall prospect, Olave explodes off the line of scrimmage and challenges defensive backs vertically with his speed, generating separation better than most other wide receivers in the class. He is aggressive as a route runner and accelerates out of his breaks. Olave broke out last season a bit, hauling in 49 catches for 849 yards and 12 touchdowns while working behind KJ Hill Jr. Expect even more targets this season for the 6-foot-1, 188-pound wideout. -- McShay

Prospects on the rise

These are the 2021 NFL draft prospects moving up boards.

Mac Jones, QB, Alabama

Like most scouts, I'm still in the very early stages of evaluating Jones' game, as he has started just eight games in his college career. But I'm really impressed with his demeanor, football sense and the way he responds to adversity -- including the poise he showed in Alabama's VRBO Citrus Bowl win against Michigan last season after throwing a pair of pick-sixes in a loss to rival Auburn in his previous start. You do have to consider that he has arguably the beat supporting cast in college football -- DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle and Najee Harris are all potential Day 1 picks -- but the production is there. This season, he has 1,518 passing yards, 12 touchdowns, two interceptions and a sparkling 96.6 Total QBR (tops in the country).

Two things really jump out at me when studying his tape. First, his pocket awareness is particularly strong. The 6-foot-3 redshirt junior knows how to maneuver in small spaces and shows toughness while hanging in there with defenders bearing down. Second, the accuracy is definitely there. His ball placement and trajectory are high-end and have helped him to a 78.3% completion rate. -- McShay

Beau Corrales, WR, North Carolina

The 6-foot-3, 205-pound senior was exceptional in Saturday's loss to Florida State, pulling down four catches for 141 yards and a touchdown. Those receptions were each 32 to 40 yards, and a few of them were contested. There are some pro-level traits in his toolbox, but I need to see more of what I saw this past weekend going forward. Right now, I think Corrales is an intriguing Day 3 prospect. -- McShay

Under-the-radar prospects you should know

Keep an eye on these potential Day 2 or Day 3 picks.

Keyion Dixon, WR, Eastern Kentucky

Dixon has had an outstanding start to his senior season. The UConn transfer caught eight passes for 196 yards and two touchdowns against Division I Troy on Saturday, and he now has 25 catches for 476 yards and five touchdowns through five games. He could surpass his receiving totals from all of 2019 in his next game. At 6-foot-3 and with long arms, Dixon is a matchup problem for opponents, and he is showing his ability in 2020. He is likely a late-round pick in April, but he has some upside. -- Kiper

Ontaria Wilson, WR, Florida State

Wilson, a 6-foot, 174-pound redshirt junior, is a strong, vertical threat. He had just 21 catches last season, but he already has caught 15 balls for 185 yards this season. If he gets a clean release off the line, he is a real headache for defenses because of his speed. With Tamorrion Terry currently out for the Seminoles, Wilson has to step up and seize the opportunity. While I think he could benefit from more game experience, some work on refining his route running and getting bigger and stronger, his future draft stock is certainly rising. -- McShay