<
>

Answering the 2020 NFL draft's biggest questions: Experts debate favorite picks, more

play
Mina Kimes loves the Hurts pick for the Eagles (2:02)

Mina Kimes justifies Howie Roseman's reasoning for the Eagles drafting Jalen Hurts and views the pick as a viable plan for the organization's future. (2:02)

The 2020 NFL draft featured 36 wide receivers, 29 draft-day trades and 63 prospects from the SEC. But the biggest surprises involved quarterbacks in the first two rounds, when the Green Bay Packers took Utah State's Jordan Love in the first round and the Philadelphia Eagles picked Oklahoma's Jalen Hurts in the second.

What did our panel of ESPN NFL experts think of the picks? We asked them to evaluate the new crop of rookies, and they dived right in, answering questions about their favorite (and most curious) picks and what we should expect from them in 2020. Check back every day this week to see more questions and answers.

The topics our panel has hit so far (click the links to see the answers):

Make a bold prediction about one player taken in the 2020 draft.

Matt Bowen, NFL analyst: Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver Jalen Reagor will lead all rookies in receiving yards. The first-round pick has the vertical stretch ability to threaten down the field, but he will be a full-scheme player in coach Doug Pederson's offense. That means quick-game throws, play-action and run-pass option targets, and reps in the slot. Plus, Pederson will work to get Reagor loose on screens to utilize his explosive ability after the catch.

Mike Clay, fantasy writer: Zack Moss will emerge as one of the league's best rushers. Moss fell to the Buffalo Bills in the third round after running a 4.65-second 40-yard dash, but that can't overshadow his absurd rushing efficiency at Utah; he ranked second in this year's rookie class in both yards after contact and forced missed tackle rate last season. Moss is big (223 pounds), tough, quick and has receiving chops. He is this year's Jordan Howard/Chris Carson.

Jeremy Fowler, national NFL writer: Cam Akers will push for 1,000 rushing yards. Many scouts love Akers and believe playing behind a bad Florida State line hurt his stock. Now, the second-round pick enters an ideal situation with the Los Angeles Rams, who rely heavily on the running game. Los Angeles' backfield needs a burst of explosion for the post-Todd-Gurley era.

Dan Graziano, national NFL writer: Jordan Love will win more Super Bowls for the Green Bay Packers than Aaron Rodgers will. Hey, you said bold, right? Figure Love becomes the Packers' starter in 2022, if not sooner. Unless Rodgers wins one of the next two, Love needs to win only two in his whole career to pass him. BOLD.

Mina Kimes, NFL writer: Denzel Mims will lead all rookie receivers in touchdowns. I don't think Mims was one of the three most talented receivers in the class, but with his body control, catch radius and athleticism, I was surprised to see him slip deep into the second round. I could see him becoming a target monster in the New York Jets' offense, where he won't have to compete with a true No. 1 for Sam Darnold's attention in the red zone.

Jason Reid, senior writer, The Undefeated: Tua Tagovailoa will have a long, relatively injury-free career and lead the Miami Dolphins to their first Super Bowl championship since 1973. By the time he retires, he will rank second to Hall of Famer Dan Marino in every major franchise passing category. I told you: I'm all-in.

Aaron Schatz, editor of Football Outsiders: Fifth-round pick Tyler Johnson will become Tom Brady's new favorite slot receiver for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He won't put up the numbers of Julian Edelman and Wes Welker, not with all the competition for targets in Tampa Bay, but he'll gain Brady's trust. Johnson is a former high school quarterback who runs crisp routes with vision and toughness.

Kevin Seifert, national NFL writer: Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive back Antoine Winfield Jr. will challenge for the league lead in takeaways. Last season at Minnesota, Winfield combined exceptional instincts with a lifetime's experience as the son of a former NFL cornerback to intercept seven passes and force two fumbles. Playing in Todd Bowles' defensive scheme will give the second-round pick plenty of opportunities.

Field Yates, NFL analyst: Dallas Cowboys defensive end Bradlee Anae will be the steal of Day 3. The fifth-round pick out of Utah will be counted on early in his career, as the team is looking for additional rushers to play opposite DeMarcus Lawrence. To be candid, I'm not entirely sure why Anae made it to the fifth round, but I believe he'll prove himself to be a worthwhile contributor for Dallas right away.


Give us a pick from Rounds 2-7 who will have some surprise value in fantasy this season.

Bowen: Van Jefferson, WR, Los Angeles Rams. With Brandin Cooks no longer in the mix, Jefferson has a shot to lock down that No. 3 role in an offense that leans on three-receiver personnel. With top-tier route-running traits and strong hands at the catch point, Jefferson can develop into a consistent target for quarterback Jared Goff off play-action throws and isolation routes.

Clay: La'Mical Perine, RB, New York Jets. They quietly grabbed Perine with a fourth-round pick, but there will be nothing quiet about the hype the Florida product will generate if Le'Veon Bell goes down with an injury this season. Perine is a strong bet for handcuff duties on a shaky Jets running back depth chart -- they just added Frank Gore -- and Bell, 28, hasn't appeared in 16 regular-season games since 2014.

Fowler: Ke'Shawn Vaughn, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tom Brady loves a good running game, and the Bucs thought enough of Vaughn to draft him instead of trading for Leonard Fournette. Vaughn plays with an edge and doesn't fumble, traits that could earn him valuable touches in a backfield with Ronald Jones.

Graziano: Jefferson. When in doubt, bet on Sean McVay's system to produce strong passing-game fantasy numbers. There is opportunity for Jefferson in Los Angeles.

Kimes: Antonio Gibson, RB/WR, Washington Redskins. It doesn't feel right to categorize Gibson as either a running back or a receiver; he can truly do it all, and is joining a Washington offense that isn't loaded with skill players. Look for him to be a reliable outlet for Dwayne Haskins this season.

Reid: Jefferson. McVay loves Jefferson's route running. Don't be surprised if Jefferson gets a whole bunch of targets this season.

Schatz: DeeJay Dallas, RB, Seattle Seahawks. With Chris Carson recovering from a broken hip and Rashaad Penny coming off a torn ACL, Dallas could end up as Seattle's opening-day starter at running back.

Seifert: AJ Dillon, RB, Green Bay Packers. It's true that Packers starter Aaron Jones led the league last season in rushing touchdowns (16). More than anything, that shows us the opportunity exists within coach Matt LaFleur's scheme. At 250 pounds, Dillon could be an alluring short-yardage (fantasy) vulture.

Yates: Darrynton Evans, RB, Tennessee Titans. The Titans are going to rely heavily upon Derrick Henry, but Evans is a unique change-of-pace option. In situations where Tennessee needs to pick up the pace, Evans should see a role.


Who is your early pick for Defensive Rookie of the Year?

Bowen: Kenneth Murray, LB, Los Angeles Chargers. Washington's Chase Young could be the pick here, but I'm going with Murray in Gus Bradley's L.A. defense. With three-down traits, second-level range and the 4.52-second 40-yard-dash speed to track the ball, Murray should rack up tackles and make impact plays as a rookie.

Clay: Isaiah Simmons, LB, Arizona Cardinals. Arizona picked eighth overall but very well might have selected the draft's best player. The do-it-all Simmons is expected to align primarily at linebacker, but he is versatile enough to help at slot corner and safety. It will be a surprise if the Clemson product isn't a full-time player, which means he'll have plenty of opportunities to fill up the stat sheet en route to a huge rookie season.

Fowler: Chase Young, DE, Washington Redskins. Washington's defensive front is actually pretty good, so Young can get some favorable one-on-one matchups. Taking advantage with eight to 10 sacks in Year 1 might be enough to snag DROY. Some NFL teams saw Young as a better prospect than Nick Bosa, and Bosa ran away with the award as a rookie last season. It's Young's turn now.

Graziano: Young. I believe he's in line to get the most sacks among the rookies, and these awards are very stat-driven.

Kimes: Young. There are a lot of similarities between Washington's defensive line and the 49ers' unit; it's stacked with high draft picks who haven't really produced as a group ... until now. I expect the addition of Young to be the key that unlocks the front seven, and he should rack up gaudy pass-rushing statistics alongside the other young talent.

Reid: Young. Coach Ron Rivera and his staff got this one right. So many great edge rushers have come out of Ohio State recently. It sure looks like Young could be the best of the bunch.

Schatz: Murray. Bowen gave the scouting report earlier on why Murray should excel in the Chargers' defense, but I'll also point out that he'll be playing in the position in which veteran Thomas Davis had 112 tackles last season. Three of the Chargers' top four tacklers were off-ball linebackers.

Seifert: Young. Between his elite skills and Rivera's history of getting high production from edge rushers, this answer seems as close to a lock as it can be in May.

Yates: Young. He was the best player in the draft. Enough said.


Who is your pick for Offensive Rookie of the Year?

Bowen: Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals. It's Burrow's high-level traits -- the movement skills, the ability to process the field, the prime ball location -- paired with his fit in Zac Taylor's offense. And with the Bengals adding wide receiver Tee Higgins -- a contested-catch star -- to mesh with a veteran group of pass-catchers, Burrow will have the targets to produce numbers as a rookie.

Clay: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Kansas City Chiefs. Burrow is the obvious pick, but I'm going to go a little bold with the first running back ever drafted in the first round by an Andy Reid-coached team. It's hard to find a coach who gets more out of his backs than Reid, and now he has a young back who sports elite elusiveness and tackle-breaking ability, and who paced this year's rookie class in all of the key receiving categories last season. Edwards-Helaire is positioned for an explosive rookie season in the Chiefs' high-scoring offense.

Fowler: Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers. I'm betting Herbert gets on the field sooner rather than later despite the presence of Tyrod Taylor. The Chargers will simplify the playbook and let Herbert rip corner routes to Keenan Allen all day. There's enough talent on this offense to make a rookie look good.

Graziano: Burrow. These awards lean so heavily toward quarterbacks, and this is the one rookie QB who looks as if he could start all 16 games (or however many they play).

Kimes: Burrow. The Bengals' offense could be hard to watch last season, but it was also missing a number of players, including wide receiver A.J. Green and first-round offensive tackle Jonah Williams. With Higgins in the mix alongside the perpetually underrated Tyler Boyd, Burrow has a nice arsenal with which to work, so long as he can stay upright.

Reid: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins. Well, I'm all-in on Tagovailoa, so I can't stop now. And yes, I know that with Ryan Fitzpatrick still on the roster, the Dolphins could redshirt Tagovailoa and protect his hip during his rookie year. But they can't keep him in bubble wrap forever. They used the fifth overall pick to get him, and he needs to play.

Schatz: Burrow. He's the one quarterback who is pretty much guaranteed to start all year, and he gets to throw to a healthy Green, who sat out all of last season. Green on his own is a big upgrade for the Bengals' offense.

Seifert: Burrow. I looked long and hard for an alternative, but he has too many built-in advantages to ignore. The chances that he has the right combination of skill, surrounding weapons and guaranteed playing time are higher than that of any other rookie.

Yates: Burrow. He's the starter, has a solid core of weapons around him, is mature and a natural born leader. I'm confident that Burrow will be an early success.


Which team's rookie class will make the biggest impact in 2020?

Bowen: Baltimore Ravens. They filled multiple needs and drafted scheme-specific players who can make an early impact. Start at linebacker with LSU's Patrick Queen and Ohio State's Malik Harrison. They fit the defensive profile in Baltimore. Running back J.K. Dobbins? He brings downhill juice and contact balance to the Ravens' run-heavy offense. And wide receiver Devin Duvernay is an explosive play threat in the slot, a middle-of-the-field target for quarterback Lamar Jackson.

Clay: Carolina Panthers. It's hard to go against the Dolphins here, but the Panthers' defense was in such rough shape entering draft weekend that they became the first team in the modern era to spend every one of their selections on defensive players. It's conceivable that all seven rookies could play a significant 2020 role and that can be considered a near lock for defensive tackle Derrick Brown, defensive end Yetur Gross-Matos and safety Jeremy Chinn, all early-round selections.

Fowler: San Francisco 49ers. Javon Kinlaw has top-10 talent and can assume the interior role vacated by DeForest Buckner. Brandon Aiyuk is a yards-after-catch demon perfectly suited for Kyle Shanahan's play-action game. And San Francisco flipped third- and fifth-round picks for Trent Williams, who's still one of the game's best left tackles.

Graziano: Cincinnati Bengals. Joe Burrow could be the only rookie quarterback to start in Week 1. Tee Higgins could be a valuable contributor, given all of the question marks in the Cincinnati wide receiver group. (Is A.J. Green going to be there? Is John Ross going to be healthy?) The linebackers they took in the third and fourth rounds could matter this year. And does 2019 first-rounder Jonah Williams, who missed all of last season with a shoulder injury, count as a rookie?

Kimes: Dallas Cowboys. I expect all three of Dallas' top picks -- wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, cornerback Trevon Diggs, and defensive lineman Neville Gallimore -- to see playing time as rookies, which is remarkable for a team that already was reasonably deep. Lamb, in particular, will benefit from all of the attention paid to his fellow receivers.

Reid: Miami Dolphins. This is a case of the most obvious answer also being the correct one. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has No. 1-overall-pick talent. I think he gets on the field sooner than some expect, and he'll stand out from the start. Offensive tackle Austin Jackson is only 20. Once he completely develops into his grown-man body, with his combination of footwork and instincts, watch out. In the 2020 season, he'll be solid while transitioning to great. And in this league, you can never have enough coverage. Cornerback Noah Igbinoghene has big-time skills.

Schatz: Denver Broncos. The Broncos' offense could be starting three of this year's draft picks, with Jerry Jeudy on the outside, KJ Hamler in the slot and Lloyd Cushenberry III at center (if free-agent addition Graham Glasgow remains at guard). All three players should play a vital role in helping quarterback Drew Lock to establish himself in his second year in the NFL.

Seifert: Detroit Lions. If nothing else, the Lions are going to get volume out of this draft. Four picks are likely Day 1 starters: cornerback Jeff Okudah, running back D'Andre Swift, linebacker Julian Okwara and guard Jonah Jackson. Three others could play big early roles. Okudah might be the only potential superstar, but there were a bunch of NFL-ready players in this class.

Yates: Cincinnati Bengals. The selection of quarterback Joe Burrow certainly accounts for most of this, but it should come as no surprise if their top three selections -- wide receiver Tee Higgins and linebacker Logan Wilson included -- make substantial contributions right away. I really like their class.


What was your favorite pick of the draft?

Bowen: CB Jeff Gladney to the Minnesota Vikings (No. 31 overall). Give me a cornerback with an ultracompetitive playing style. You can win with that. Gladney's aggressive coverage traits, toughness and ball production are an easy fit for coach Mike Zimmer's defense. I can't wait to watch him play in Minnesota.

Clay: The Miami Dolphins' entire first round. A ton of mock drafts had Miami burning a first-round pick on a running back, but instead it aggressively addressed the aspects of the game that matter most: effective passing (QB Tua Tagovailoa at No. 5), reducing pressure on the quarterback (OT Austin Jackson at No. 18) and stopping the pass (CB Noah Igbinoghene at No. 30). That's a job well done.

Fowler: LB Kenneth Murray to the Los Angeles Chargers (No. 23). The Chargers were happy that teams deprioritized middle linebackers this year, so they traded up and got an anchor. Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram can chase quarterbacks while the speedy and versatile Murray flies around behind them. One of the league's most talented units gets deeper.

Graziano: WR Jerry Jeudy to the Denver Broncos (No. 15). We were told he was the most pro-ready of the wide receivers crop, and as we enter an offseason full of questions, teams are going to have a hard time developing rookies in time to play the regular season. Jeudy looks like a guy who can help right away, regardless.

Kimes: WR CeeDee Lamb to the Dallas Cowboys (No. 17). I doubt Cowboys owner Jerry Jones went into that Thursday night expecting -- or even hoping -- to land Lamb, arguably the top wideout in a loaded class. Wide receiver wasn't near the top of the Cowboys' list of needs, but to snag a player of Lamb's caliber there is a coup. Dallas' offense -- which I imagine will use plenty of three-receiver sets under new coach Mike McCarthy -- should be a juggernaut.

Reid: QB Tua Tagovailoa to the Miami Dolphins (No. 5). Look, I get the injury concerns. And because of those concerns, this evaluation might age poorly. I accept that risk. That established, there's just so much to love about Tagovailoa's game. The Dolphins got a special quarterback prospect. In a QB league, that's the best type of prospect.

Schatz: WR CeeDee Lamb to the Dallas Cowboys (No. 17). Our playmaker score projection system had Lamb as the best prospect in a strong class of wide receivers. To get him all the way down in the middle of the first round was a coup for the Cowboys.

Seifert: QB Jordan Love to the Green Bay Packers (No. 26). I don't think the Love pick was the best draft decision, but it was the bravest I've seen in some time. The Packers made the NFC Championship Game last season, but general manager Brian Gutekunst started the clock on his future Hall of Fame quarterback's departure with absolutely no provocation. Aaron Rodgers, 36, isn't considering retirement. He is still playing at a high level, if not his best, and the decision -- while understandable from a long-term sense -- has the potential to lower the Packers' short-term ceiling. I'm here for it.

Yates: WR Jerry Jeudy to the Denver Broncos (No. 15). The draft is full of unpredictable elements, with Jeudy's relative "slide" being one of them. It didn't take much effort to make a compelling case for him as the draft's top wide receiver, and for Denver to land him at pick 15 -- addressing an area of need -- feels like a home run.


What was the most head-scratching pick of the draft?

Bowen: WR Laviska Shenault Jr. to the Jacksonville Jaguars (No. 42.) Shenault brings versatile traits to the league, but I have questions about his fit in coordinator Jay Gruden's West Coast offense and how he could be used to maximize his abilities. Shenault will need manufactured touches while he develops as a wide receiver.

Clay: RB AJ Dillon to the Green Bay Packers (No. 62). I understand that Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams are headed to free agency next offseason, but what about the NFL running back landscape suggests it's hard to find a competent back in a short period of time? Granted, Dillon is an impressive presence at 6-foot and 247 pounds who ran a 4.53-second 40-yard dash, but he offers little as a receiver, which is a value crusher in the modern NFL. Green Bay should've addressed a more important position in the second round.

Fowler: CB Damon Arnette to the Las Vegas Raiders (No. 19) Arnette should be a productive NFL player, but he wasn't considered a top-five corner among many NFL personnel evaluators, which means Las Vegas could have gotten him later. Maybe trading back for more assets was the play, but Day 2 offered good corner value.

Graziano: QB Jalen Hurts to the Philadelphia Eagles (No. 53). Bang on the Packers all you want for picking Jordan Love, but at least their quarterback is almost 37 years old. Hurts went just 27 picks later to a team that is locked in on a young star QB. If coach Doug Pederson really can make him Taysom Hill 2.0, great, but count me as a skeptic.

play
2:01
Orlovsky, Max clash over Eagles' decision to select Jalen Hurts

Max Kellerman sound off on the Eagles drafting Jalen Hurts considering they gave Carson Wentz an expensive contract extension but Dan Orlovsky adamantly defends the move.

Kimes: CB Kristian Fulton to the Tennessee Titans (No. 61). I understand that Fulton, who was suspended early in college for tampering with a drug test, probably slipped because of off-field issues. But to my eye, he was the third-best cornerback in the class, and I was shocked to see him fall this far.

Reid: QB Jalen Hurts to the Philadelphia Eagles (No. 53). This is not meant as a shot at Hurts. Several player-personnel people told me they had him ranked in the 50s. It's just that Carson Wentz, obviously, is the Eagles' guy. Even factoring in Wentz's injury history, the Eagles used a second-round pick on someone who, in a best-case scenario for the franchise, will remain as a backup for a long stretch.

Schatz: TE Dalton Keene to the New England Patriots (No. 101). After Cole Kmet was drafted at No. 43, the entire tight end position veered from conventional wisdom. I was surprised to see players such as Devin Asiasi, Josiah Deguara and Keene go in the third round, while well-regarded tight ends Hunter Bryant, Jared Pinkney and Thaddeus Moss went undrafted. Keene had just 21 catches for 240 yards last season. George Kittle also had very little usage in college, but that kind of stardom from a similar college career is exceedingly rare.

Seifert: QB Jalen Hurts to the Philadelphia Eagles (No. 53). This pick doesn't add up, at least in a world where Wentz is the Eagles' unquestioned and long-term starter. The second round is a valuable spot to draft a backup or an "offensive weapon," if that's how the Eagles view Hurts. If Wentz's injury history has compelled the Eagles into thinking they need to be a two-quarterback team, that's no less workable in the long term. It's hard to interpret the Eagles' plan here.

Yates: OT Josh Jones to the Arizona Cardinals (No. 72). The head-scratching part is why Jones was even available at this spot. While I was not convinced that he was just behind the consensus top four offensive tackles in terms of overall value, I believe Cardinals general manager Steve Keim landed an excellent prospect at this slot.