There are no guarantees in the NFL draft. No surefire starters. No instant Hall of Famers. The reality is that there is is a range of outcomes for every prospect, even the best. Any prospect can become a rotational piece or a replacement-level player.
At the same time, teams are not throwing darts on their draft boards. It's more like they are rolling weighted dice. The trick is rolling the die with the most favorable weight and then hoping for the best. Our 2020 NFL draft projections depict that weight: it's a model that projects each prospect's chance to become a Pro Bowl-caliber player, a consistent starter, a bench or special-teams player, replacement-level player and nonfactor. Success is measured by Pro Football Reference's Approximate Value.
The most important factor in the model is a qualitative measurement: Scouts Inc. grades. In a way, it is largely a depiction of what a range of outcomes for those grades truly looks like. But it also incorporates measurable and combine information, which does add value to the projections. The useful events and measurements are not always where you think. We also use those measurables to provide athleticism comparisons to past prospects, as long as we have enough information (not the case with every prospect this year).
Position is important as well. What the model has found is that qualitative and athleticism assessments are more accurate for some positions than for others. The result is that while in general the model often matches consensus (prospects considered generally strong by Scouts Inc. are also broadly considered strong by our model), its specific forecasts include some surprises.
Let's start by taking a look at the most likely Pro Bowl-caliber players, which includes a surprise from the jump:
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Full list of top 2020 projections
What about the quarterbacks?
1. Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa
Chances to become Pro Bowl-caliber: 79%
Athleticism comp: Trent Williams
We mentioned at the top that some positions are more predictable, and offensive tackle is high on that list. Perhaps the best way to earn high marks from our model is to be an athletic, highly regarded tackle, which is exactly what Wirfs is.
While there is annual derision of the fact offensive linemen run the 40-yard dash at the NFL combine, the event is a sign of a player's athleticism, which is a factor in how well he'll play in the league.
Though athleticism is surely considered by the qualitative grade, the addition of the combine metrics helps compensate for some events being over or undervalued. The 40-yard dash is one of those undervalued events for offensive tackles. So for Wirfs, who was a second-team All-American and earned a 93 grade from Scouts Inc., running a 4.85 at 320 pounds boosted his stock. To a slightly lesser degree, broad jump is an indicator for offensive linemen, and Wirfs aced that event, as well.
2. Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville
Chances to become Pro Bowl-caliber: 75%
Athleticism comp: Not enough data
For all the same reasons that Wirfs was No. 1 on this list, Becton is No. 2. Though his 40 time was slower than Wirfs' at 5.05 seconds, Becton weighs substantially more, at 364 pounds. Weight, like speed, is in general a positive factor in the model.
So why is Becton behind Wirfs if he's much larger but still very fast for his size? Don't forget, the combine information is somewhat on the margins. The real driver of the model is the scouting grades, and Wirfs is higher than Becton there.
3. Kenneth Murray, ILB, Oklahoma
Chances to become Pro Bowl-caliber: 69%
Athleticism comp: Stephone Anthony
Inside linebacker is another position that scouts are particularly successful at forecasting, the model believes. That was evident this time last year when Devin White and Devin Bush led this same exercise.
That -- along with a strong 4.52 40-time, which puts Murray in the 91 percentile, per MockDraftable.com -- is why the model is so confident in him despite being Scouts Inc.'s 25th-ranked player. His projection trailed White's by just a hair. Given that Murray is expected to be a late first-rounder, the model will surely consider him the steal of this group.
4. Isaiah Simmons, OLB, Clemson
Chances to become Pro Bowl-caliber: 67%
Athleticism comp: Thomas Howard
Combine events are the most predictive of NFL success for outside linebackers and defensive ends, so it's no surprise to see Simmons high on this list. The former Clemson defender was 99 and 98 percentile in the 40-yard dash and broad jump, per MockDraftable.com, on top of his 94 grade from Scouts Inc.
Of course, muddying the waters in projecting Simmons is his versatility. To classify him as simply an outside linebacker would not be capturing the role he played in the Clemson defense. In fact, Simmons played more slot corner than outside linebacker last season.
5. Chase Young, DE, Ohio State
Chances to become Pro Bowl-caliber: 52%
Athleticism comp: Not enough data
Though a strong projection for any other player, Young's number here looks a shade disappointing for a pass-rusher who is expected to be the No. 2 overall pick -- though the Redskins might want to think twice about that.
And Young does receive a higher scouting grade than any other player in this draft. So what's the deal?
There are two things happening. The circumstances of this offseason have dictated that we have combine event information on fewer prospects, Young included. He didn't work out at the combine and with his pro day canceled, we don't have, say, a 40-yard dash or broad jump for him. The result is simply more uncertainty, which flattens the range of outcomes curve and -- for an otherwise elite prospect -- hurts his forecast. It's just not going to be as confident about Young's elite abilities if it doesn't have access to that sort of athletic information.
In addition, Young might be a victim of a quirk of the model: Instead of players classified as "edge," they are sorted into their more traditional "OLB" and "DE" labels. The result is that Young looks light compared to most other players who are characterized as DEs, which hurts his numbers -- probably unfairly.
Ultimately, Young is an outstanding prospect who has, for example, roughly the same projection as both Bosa brothers. We just can't be confident that he is the most likely prospect in this class to succeed.
Where are the quarterbacks?
Quarterback is not one of the more consistently evaluated positions, so they are unlikely to crack the top of this list. That doesn't mean they shouldn't be selected at the top of the draft. Though the hit rate for quarterbacks might be lower, the value of a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback vastly outweighs the value of a Pro Bowl-caliber anything else.
But even among the top two quarterbacks, there is a surprise: Tua Tagovailoa has a higher chance to be Pro Bowl-caliber or at least a starter (23% and 66%, respectively) than Joe Burrow (15% and 57%). That's despite the fact Burrow has a slightly better Scouts Inc. grade and neither worked out at the combine.
So what's going on? It's about the measurables. Believe it or not, the model is concerned with Burrow's small hands (9 inches) and arm length relative to his height. While it might seem silly to ding the Heisman Trophy winner on his hands, these factors have shown in the past to have some predictive value for NFL performance. And that pushes Tagovailoa ahead.
We will note that it is possible that the model is not fully accounting for Tagovailoa's injury risk. It's presumably partially captured in the qualitative grade, but the full extent of the concern might not be captured by this method.
ESPN's NFL Draft Projections were built by Brian Burke. A more detailed description of the methodology behind the model can be found in our projections of last year's draft.