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Football analyst- Mel Kiper Jr. has served as an NFL draft analyst for ESPN since 1984. He is a regular contributor on "SportsCenter," ESPN studio shows and ESPN Radio. He is the co-host of the First Draft podcast, and he writes regularly for ESPN+.
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senior NFL draft analyst- Todd McShay is a senior NFL draft analyst for ESPN, providing in-depth scouting reports on the nation's top pro prospects. He also serves as a college football field analyst on Saturdays in the fall. Todd joined ESPN in 2006 and contributes to SportsCenter, NFL Live, College Football Live and ESPN Radio. He is a Massachusetts native and was a backup quarterback at the University of Richmond. You can follow Todd on Twitter via @McShay13.
The NFL combine is finally here, and the best 2020 NFL draft prospects are in Indianapolis to go through athletic testing, meet with teams for in-depth interviews and get accurately measured. It's the most important evaluation event leading up to the draft, which starts April 23.
With workouts starting Thursday night -- here's the full schedule -- we asked NFL draft experts Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay to answer questions about what they're keeping an eye on in Indy, which prospects could rise and more.
Check out coverage on ESPN and the ESPN App on Thursday and Friday, with nightly specials dedicated to the workouts. And catch the combine special on ABC on Saturday at 5 p.m. ET.
Jump to:
QBs to watch | Potential risers/fallers
Workout warriors | 40-yard dash burners
Let's start with Joe Burrow: Does his hand size matter?
Kiper: No, it doesn't, though NFL teams do use 9-inch hands as the bar for quarterbacks. They might worry if he was under that, but there's no reason to knock him at this point. He didn't have a fumbling problem in college, and it didn't affect him when he was throwing 60 touchdown passes on his way to winning the Heisman Trophy. And it hasn't affected Patrick Mahomes, who is a quarter-inch above 9.
Hand size is overrated; there's a long list of busts who had huge hands. Paxton Lynch, Christian Ponder, Josh Freeman and Tim Tebow all had over 10-inch hands.
McShay: Here's a nugget: Of 34 quarterbacks who've measured in with 9-inch hands or smaller since 2006, only two -- Ryan Tannehill and Jared Goff -- have experienced sustained success in the NFL (although Drew Lock looked good in half a season, too). But it's not an end-all, be-all. It's just a data point that, like other measurements, makes you go back and look for certain things on tape. In this case, it's how well he protects the football and how he throws in poor weather.
I saw Burrow live vs. Ole Miss in late September 2018 in driving rain in Death Valley, and he completed 72% of his passes for 292 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions. As for fumbling, he did so just four times last season, and lost just one. Let's put this to bed: Hand size is not an issue for Burrow. The Bengals shouldn't hesitate in taking him No. 1 overall, especially now that Burrow says he will indeed suit up for Cincinnati if it uses that top pick on him.
Outside of Burrow, who is the most interesting prospect in Indianapolis?
McShay: No, he isn't working out. No, he isn't even the top quarterback on my board. But make no mistake, Tua Tagovailoa is the center of attention in Indianapolis this week. Though the Alabama quarterback expects to be fully cleared from his hip injury by mid-March, his medical reports here are the main focus and an important checkpoint for NFL scouts. Has he progressed to where he should be at this point?
We also will all be watching how he carries himself this week. Whether he excels in team meetings and how he handles himself amid the attention will stand out. Remember, a team will be banking on him to lead its franchise with an early pick. He's poised, charismatic and even-keeled, so I expect him to impress a lot of coaches and general managers in Indy, even though he won't be on the field.
Kiper: I agree that it's Tagovailoa, though we won't know the full extent of his medicals for a few weeks. Remember: Every team gets a chance to look at him, and their reports could be different. There is already a buzz around him because of his on-field numbers; you could make the case that he should be ahead of Burrow based on his tape alone. But his injury history -- he has had concerning ankle injuries too -- makes him a wild card in this class.
Tagovailoa said this week that he plans to hold his own pro day and throw for scouts on April 9, and that will be one of the best-attended pro days ever. I put him at No. 3 in my Mock Draft 2.0, and he could cement a top-five grade in this class in April. Can he jump Burrow and get in contention for the No. 1 pick? That remains to be seen. But he's not as far behind Burrow as you might think.
What are you most interested in seeing from the quarterbacks this week?
Kiper: With Burrow and Tagovailoa not throwing, I want to see who takes charge in each drill. Who has the "it" factor? This is a great chance for the third quarterback in this class to cement his spot. You'd think it would be a perfect showcase for the 6-foot-6, strong-armed QBs like Justin Herbert (Oregon) and Jacob Eason (Washington), but they have to work with receivers to whom they've never thrown. That's tough. Can the QB put a bad throw immediately behind him and move on to the next one? Jordan Love (Utah State) and Jake Fromm (Georgia) round out my quarterback rankings; there could be six quarterbacks drafted in the top 50 picks in April.
McShay: I'll be keeping a close eye on the workouts just like you, Mel, looking for improvement in footwork or release or whatever it may be. But I'm even more interested to see how these guys operate off the field. I love talking to quarterback group leaders, the scouts responsible for spending the day with each group and taking them around to each event. They are great sources of information. Who has the big personality? Who was shy or standoffish? Which QB did everyone gravitate toward? Specifically, Herbert, Love and Eason will be important guys to watch.
Herbert let it rip at the Senior Bowl and showed more and more confidence in Mobile as the week wore on. Now around the big dogs, will he continue to carry himself as a top NFL quarterback prospect or will he shy away from attention?
Love also had a good week at the Senior Bowl, but his 2019 season was pretty disappointing, as he struggled without a supporting cast. Will he come out and sling it? Will he carry himself as a Round 1 guy?
Can Eason show he can be leaned on as a starting QB in the NFL? Despite all his talent, he was beaten out by Fromm at Georgia. He lost some close games in college, and he never really had to carry his team. These are short interviews, but they are important in answering lingering questions. Teams need to get to know Eason at this stage.
Which quarterback has the best chance to rise at the combine?
McShay: Consider this yet another chance for Love to separate himself from Eason and Fromm in that second tier with Herbert. Remember, Love played with Utah State in several West Coast games that kicked off after 10 p.m. ET. For some, this might be an introduction to Love. And he certainly fits what the NFL wants. He has size, a big arm and some ability to extend and move around in the pocket. Now, can he put it all together and iron out some decision-making issues?
One more name to keep in the back of your mind this week: Cole McDonald out of Hawaii. He has been working with QB coach Jordan Palmer, and while he tends to play on his toes and has a bit of a wind-up delivery, there is some potential here. He could be a good dart throw on Day 3 if he has a strong week here.
See why former Alabama WR Henry Ruggs III was the first ever draft pick by the Las Vegas Raiders.
Kiper: That's interesting, Todd. McDonald hasn't yet cracked my list of the top 10 quarterbacks in this class, but I'll be watching closely. I'm going to go outside the box a little here and say Herbert. I know I just talked up Tagovailoa, but Herbert could jump the Bama signal-caller and be the second quarterback off the board if everything breaks right. Herbert has been a polarizing prospect over the past year, but there are teams that really like him, even over Tagovailoa. This is his chance to impress in interviews with teams. We know he has all the physical tools -- he was the clear best quarterback at the Senior Bowl -- but he can prove any doubters wrong behind the scenes this week.
Is there any chance Chase Young is not the No. 1 prospect on your board coming out of the combine?
Kiper: Barring a red flag in his medical report, no, because Young isn't going to work out. The Ohio State pass-rusher will go through medical testing and interviews with teams and wait until the Buckeyes' pro day to go through drills in front of scouts. And he's a prospect who can afford to trust his tape, right, Todd?
McShay: Of course -- he'll be No. 1 in my rankings. Young is absolutely the top prospect, and if you have any question of that, go turn on a few minutes of his tape. He doesn't need to work out this week because teams already know what he can do.
Who are the prospects with the most to gain at the combine?
McShay: If Henry Ruggs III runs in the 4.2s or low 4.3s in the 40-yard dash, he's a lock for the first round in my eyes. Those 40 times could prove just how fast the Alabama wideout is. Likewise, a good 40 for Florida's CJ Henderson (think 4.4s here) could cement him as the No. 2 cornerback in the draft class behind Jeff Okudah. He played only nine games because of injury in 2019, so this is a good opportunity to showcase his elite combination of size, speed and athleticism. I think he could pop in the CB drills because of his high-end foot quickness and oily hips.
Ohio State running back J.K. Dobbins loves the challenge of being hit and not being the one to fall.
Another name to watch is LSU edge rusher K'Lavon Chaisson. He was already rising at the end of the season, thanks to 4.5 of his 6.5 sacks coming in his last four games, and now he has a chance to really surge. Production wasn't always there, but his physical traits, high-end flexibility and outstanding natural athleticism should show up in the pass-rush drills and push him closer to locking down the No. 2 edge rusher spot in the class behind Young.
What about the prospects with the most to lose?
Kiper: Let's start with two wide receivers in Tee Higgins (Clemson) and Justin Jefferson (LSU). Higgins needs to put up a good 40 time -- something in the 4.55 range would suffice -- to solidify his first-round grade. At 6-foot-4, he has a big frame and isn't a burner, but teams don't want to spend a first-round pick on a big, slow wideout. Jefferson, who caught 111 passes for the Tigers last season, also needs to show scouts that he has the athleticism of a No. 1 receiver. He could slip to Round 2.
Alabama defensive lineman Raekwon Davis is an enigma; he didn't produce the past two seasons -- just two sacks -- but has all the physical tools to be a great player. If he doesn't test well across the board, he could continue to drop.
What is the most important drill in Indy, and why?
McShay: This is entirely dependent on the position. Here are some examples:
For edge rushers, I'm looking at the three-cone drill. Register a 6.9 or better there, and you're in elite company. Von Miller (6.7), T.J. Watt (6.79), Melvin Ingram III (6.83), J.J. Watt (6.88) and Joey Bosa (6.89) all came in sub-6.9 and have gone on to have excellent NFL careers.
No single drill takes the cake for cornerbacks. It's really more about a combination of the 40-yard dash (4.4 or faster is outstanding), arm length measurements (33 inches shows elite reach) and, perhaps surprisingly, the Wonderlic test. The Wonderlic is just one gauge to help show football IQ, which translates into quick decision-making and instinctive play. But really, it's all important for the CBs.
On the offensive line, it's all about the weight-adjusted 20-yard shuttle. Interior guys will be targeting 4.6 seconds, while 4.82 is red-flag territory. And tackles who hit 4.62 are the elites, while 4.84 or worse will raise some questions. The 4.75-4.77 range is the five-year average for offensive linemen.
What prospect-drill combination is must-see TV this year?
Kiper: Todd already mentioned Henry Ruggs III, but let's just say you should get to your TV on Thursday night to watch him run. I think he's going to be in the 4.2s. This is such a fun wide receiver class, led by his teammate Jerry Jeudy, and it's possible Ruggs could be a top-15 pick.
The guy everyone will be talking about when the combine is over is ________.
McShay: This is an easy one. In 2019, Clemson linebacker Isaiah Simmons posted 8.0 sacks, 102 tackles, 16 tackles for loss, eight pass breakups, three interceptions and a forced fumble in 15 games. And on Saturday, the 6-foot-4, 238-pounder could wow in just about every test, too.
I've heard he could run in the 4.4s in the 40, but even a low 4.5 would be outrageous. Typically a 4.65 is considered outstanding for an outside linebacker, and the average is 4.74 over the past five years. Simmons has apparently hit 40 inches in the vertical jump and nearly 11 feet in the broad jump, too. Those are tremendous numbers. And of course, a sub-6.9 figure in the three-cone could bring it all home. Simmons is an absolute beast, and his unique skill set will jump off the screen in Indianapolis.
Who are the most intriguing prospects you want to see this week?
Kiper:
Notre Dame's Cole Kmet has a chance to be the No. 1 tight end in a wide-open class, but anything slower than a 4.70 40 could cause the 262-pounder to drop. He had just 60 catches in college, but teams love his upside.
Louisville offensive tackle Mekhi Becton is massive -- he measured at 6-foot-7, 364 pounds on Tuesday. I expect him to test extremely well for a prospect of his size, and he could become the top OT -- and a potential top-five pick -- with a good workout on Friday.
Here's a prospect you probably haven't seen: Kyle Dugger, a safety from Division II Lenoir-Rhyne. His tape from the past three seasons is tremendous, and he didn't look out of place during Senior Bowl practices. He's my fifth-ranked safety heading into the week, but he could rise.
McShay:
LSU safety Grant Delpit will be a prospect to watch closely. He has fallen a bit on my board with a subpar 2019 season, but the traits are there. Will they show up in Indy?
I want to see how a certain pair of running backs catch the ball this week. It's such a big part of the modern NFL running back and could be a big factor for just how high Ohio State's J.K. Dobbins and Wisconsin's Jonathan Taylor are selected. A good week for Dobbins could solidify his spot as the second-best running back in the class behind D'Andre Swift. And while Taylor has excellent lower-body explosion, how will he be able to adjust on screens catching the ball? It will be something to watch for both ball carriers.
USC's Michael Pittman Jr. is very underrated in a strong wide receiver class. His hands and route running will likely pop in drills, and I fully expect him to do well in team meetings. How fast he runs in Indy could further raise his stock.
Who are three freak athletes/workout warriors everyone should know?
McShay:
Iowa offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs is notorious in the weight room. The 6-foot-5, 320-pounder carries his weight well and has explosive power. So what should you expect in Indy? Consider that when Wirfs was 19 years old, he set the school record in the power clean for four reps of 450 pounds. But don't only pay attention to the strength. He is rumored to be right around 35 inches on the vertical jump, which would be the second highest by an offensive lineman in the past seven years (Connor McGovern jumped 36 inches last year).
If you were to design a defensive end prototype on a computer, it'd look like South Carolina's Javon Kinlaw. You might remember him from his dominant 48-hour trip to the Senior Bowl. He has long arms, he carries weight beautifully and he is athletic, flexible and fast.
Like Kinlaw, Oklahoma defensive tackle Neville Gallimore is a physical freak. He should be one of the fastest 300-pounders at the combine and could run in the 4.7s. When he turns it loose, he's tough to stop. Sure, Gallimore has an inconsistent motor and some technique work to improve, but he will turn heads with his overall workout at the combine.
Kiper:
Wideout Jalen Reagor had some issues with drops at TCU, but he has off-the-charts athleticism. At 5-foot-11, 206 pounds, he could be a receiver who plays all over the field. He's going to be among the leaders in almost every drill. In a loaded receiver class, he's ranked No. 10 on my list.
Oklahoma linebacker Kenneth Murray is a chiseled 6-foot-2, 241 pounds, and he'll be one of the fastest linebackers in this class. He's a true sideline-to-sideline player. My second-ranked inside linebacker, Murray has a chance to go in the top 15 picks.
I'll also mention Missouri tight end Albert Okwuegbunam, who didn't have a great season (just 26 catches). He could rise if he tests how I expect him to; he's No. 4 on my tight ends list.
Who are two burners who could run the fastest 40-yard dash?
McShay: I think we are in agreement that Ruggs is a jet and could run something in the 4.2s, so for the sake of variety, I'll skip him and mention a pair of alternative choices here: TCU wide receiver Jalen Reagor and Western Michigan running back LeVante Bellamy.
Kiper: I need to mention Utah corner Javelin Guidry because Adam Schefter thinks he has a chance to break the combine record. That alone might get him drafted. And Auburn corner Noah Igbinoghene, whom I put in Round 1 of my latest mock draft, is another possibility.