The promise for bad NFL teams slogging through an ugly December is that a franchise-altering quarterback could be available in next April's draft. At least four teams projected to have a top-10 pick in 2020 could be looking for one, and the Miami Dolphins have three first-round selections to make it happen.
But the 2020 quarterback class has enough questions that finding a once-in-a-decade quarterback is hardly a guarantee, which helps Ohio State edge rusher Chase Young's case as the top selection.
While Alabama's Tua Tagovailoa continues to struggle with injuries and Oregon's Justin Herbert has been underwhelming at times as a passer, LSU's Joe Burrow has capitalized with near-flawless play in 2019.
That doesn't change this reality for one longtime AFC scout. "Most defensive coordinators will say, 'Who scares me the most?'" the scout said. "And Tua [Tagovailoa] and [Justin] Herbert will scare teams more than Joe Burrow."
With insight from several NFL personnel evaluators, here's a look at which player might go No. 1 and how the pieces fit in a draft with at least five losing teams potentially seeking a quarterback at the top of the draft.
The Bengals are 'deficient everywhere'
The Bengals -- projected to pick No. 1 overall -- are immersed in a lengthy rebuild that requires upgrading nearly every position and phasing out aging veterans. By refusing to trade assets A.J. Green and Geno Atkins at the deadline, the Bengals have just one draft pick in each of the first three rounds in 2020.
What the Bengals need is what few teams have: a transcendent quarterback who can overcome those deficiencies with elite play. The team finally benched nine-year starter Andy Dalton in October, but the Ryan Finley introduction lasted three starts before Dalton was back in the lineup. Neither appears to be the answer.
"They had that in Carson Palmer, and I don't know that that reality exists for them based on this draft," one AFC exec said. "I don't think Ryan Finley is that bad. He's got a big arm. But he obviously didn't play well. So they need help there, but they are deficient everywhere."
Any quarterback selected must fit the personality of head coach Zac Taylor, who will get at least a second year in Cincinnati. The Bengals are all-in on Taylor. But there's still so much we don't know about his style.
He was hired late in the process because of his Super Bowl run as quarterbacks coach with the Los Angeles Rams, and he got a late start in assembling a coaching staff as a result. Multiple sources around the league expect Taylor to make changes to that staff after the 1-12 start. What seems reasonably clear is that Taylor wants a Rams-like identity -- a balanced attack with play-action to help the quarterback.
The Bengals could move out of the No. 1 pick and take the best available quarterback a few picks later. Or if they target a second-tier quarterback from this deep QB class -- Georgia's Jake Fromm or Oklahoma's Jalen Hurts or Washington's Jacob Eason -- they can take the dream pick on the other side of the ball.
"They love explosive defensive guys," the AFC scout said. "I could see them taking a defensive guy from the Big Ten with the top pick."
The safe play: Chase Young
The pass-rusher from Ohio State -- located 109 miles from where the Bengals play on Sundays -- is considered a foundational defensive piece.
"Absolute freak," an AFC exec said. "He's the most logical candidate for the No. 1 pick. Teams will have the easiest time selecting him."
Young would fit seamlessly in the Bengals' 4-3 scheme. He's got a lot of what you want out of a defensive end: speed, power, run-stopping ability. And there's room to improve. He's not yet a refined pass-rusher but has plenty of ability to get there.
Young was considered the best defensive player in college football, and if the Bengals don't want him, he likely won't slip past the New York Giants, who are projected to have the No. 2 pick.
The Giants can see what quarterback Daniel Jones does with a full offseason while letting general manager Dave Gettleman do what he loves: selecting a lineman high in the draft.
In each of his seven drafts with Carolina and New York, Gettleman has used one of his first three picks on an offensive or defensive lineman, including three first-rounders and four second-rounders.
The case for Joe Burrow
An AFC personnel director pulls out his phone to show a Joe Burrow clip he saved during a recent film study.
Early in the second quarter of the game against Auburn, backed up at the 9-yard line, Burrow evaded pressure and ran to the right for a 14-yard gain. Defensive back Javaris Davis blasted him deep into the Auburn sideline.
The TV clip showed Burrow calmly popping up from the hit, but the director's film from an aerial view showed Burrow going back at Davis with some healthy jawing. Seven plays later, LSU completed a 98-yard touchdown drive. This is an example of what teams absolutely love about Burrow, who will be a consideration for many teams choosing in the top 10.
"He's tough as s---," one general manager said.
That doesn't make the Burrow evaluation clear-cut. He's rising as the top quarterback in the class because of his football smarts, flair for the big play and accuracy jump of more than 20 points: 77.9% in 2019 compared to 57.8% in 2018. He's one of college football's unlikeliest Heisman turns, a three-star recruit turned Ohio State afterthought who reinvented himself in the Bayou.
Many NFL evaluators believe Burrow shortened the gap with Tagovailoa well before the Alabama quarterback's latest injury.
The concerns with Burrow are about pedigree, which helps explain why he was overlooked for years.
"He's not a particularly thick, stout guy, and he doesn't have a huge arm," said an AFC scout of Burrow's 6-foot-4, 216-pound frame. "He's overcome all of that by the way he played, and the Alabama game helps him a lot. He's a really smart football player. ... Joe Burrow quite frankly looked like a backup at best last year. Even in training camp, I don't think anybody could have anticipated how well he's played. The debate is going to be: OK, how much is it him? Is it Joe Brady's system?"
Multiple evaluators say Burrow's arm won't make him a vertical threat like others in the draft, although his stats show that perhaps that shouldn't be as much of a concern. Burrow has 16 touchdown passes on throws of 20-plus air yards, which ranks first in the FBS. His 1,293 yards on those throws ranks second.
But some doubts remain.
"He doesn't look like a top quarterback," the AFC exec said. "He has a slender frame. That will be a concern for some teams."
The Tua conundrum
A healthy number of evaluators agree:
"Tua over Burrow all day long," an NFC scout said.
If only it were that simple. Tagovailoa's injuries are holding him back. His height (6-foot-1) will always concern some general managers, but that's less of a concern than in past years.
The injury-prone label was a problem well before Tagovailoa went down with a dislocated hip on Nov. 16. Over the next four months, NFL teams will treat Tagovailoa like an Operation board game.
"He literally has had something every spring and every summer since he got to Tuscaloosa -- hand, toe, knee, elbow, ankle," the second AFC scout said. "His medical evals will be absolutely crucial."
The raw ability should overcome enough concerns to get Tagovailoa into the top half of the first round. Many people around the league believe the Dolphins, projected for the No. 4 pick, targeted Tua long ago.
Good coordinators can mask quarterback deficiencies over full seasons with timely playcalling, misdirection plays and a strong supporting cast. But the quarterbacks who last can stretch a defense, and Tagovailoa can place balls through tight windows and hit streaking receivers over the top.
"If you want anticipation throws and the accuracy and the ability to go vertical, Tua's still at the top of the list for these quarterbacks," the NFC scout said.
Despite the scarcity of left-handed NFL quarterbacks, multiple NFL people interviewed say Tagovailoa doesn't get dinged for being a lefty because premier left tackles are so hard to find now that there's almost no difference between the left and right sides. "If you don't have a primo left tackle, it almost helps you a little bit," the NFC scout said.
The wild card: Justin Herbert
Evaluators include Herbert in any conversation about quarterbacks at the top of the draft and usually bring him up unprompted.
Herbert's 6-foot-6, 237-pound frame and seemingly effortless arm strength remind of Buffalo's Josh Allen, even if his accuracy, anticipation and footwork prove maddening at times.
"He has all the prototypical things, and there are still teams that will go off measurables," one NFC exec said. "There will be certain GMs who play in the cold weather who say they will take 6-6, 240. They will make that work."
No prospect has more to gain out of the draft process than Herbert, who will undoubtedly look good in a pro-day setting. "Based on some of his traits, I'm excited to dig into him more," the NFC exec said.
But there's enough bad tape out there -- the Arizona State game included -- that will give teams pause.
"He's lived in Oregon all his life. He's a program guy," the AFC exec said. "I think he's a smart kid, but it will be interesting to see how he responds to an NFL offense in a city clear across the country."