The 2020 NFL draft is already shaping up to be a loaded class at several positions. The No. 1 pick, though? No prospect is a lock. Did anyone the past two years have Kyler Murray or Baker Mayfield going No. 1 overall two games into the season? I don't think so. That's what makes the draft so fun -- any player could emerge over the course of the season.
So let's evaluate those early candidates for the top pick in 2020, and I'll show you how each of them dominates on tape. Yes, Tua Tagovailoa makes the cut, but I have three other quarterbacks on the list, plus pass-rushers, offensive tackles and one stud wide receiver.
I'm looking for special traits -- some prospects are more consistent than others, but all of them flash those elite qualities. I'm even including a few wild cards at the end. Here we go:
Jump to a position:
QBs | WR | D-line
OTs | Wild cards
The elite quarterbacks
Signal-callers have been picked No. 1 overall in four of the past five drafts, and we know that it's the most important position in the NFL. These QBs would fit well with the Dolphins, who are projected to have the top pick:
Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama
Class: Junior | Height: 6-1 | Weight: 218
Kiper rank: 4 | McShay rank: 1
Stat to know: Total QBR of 93.1 in 2018
How he dominates: Accuracy/anticipation
I don't see elite arm talent with Tagovailoa, but his ability to make anticipatory throws -- with high-end accuracy -- puts him in a prime position to attack in the vertical passing game (check out the video clip below) or target tight windows. Whether Tagovailoa is throwing the quick game, working the ball to the middle of the field or hitting a flood concept outside of the numbers, he can dice up secondaries with quick processing and ball placement.
Alabama takes its first lead of the game as Tua Tagovailoa finds Jerry Jeudy down the middle for a 79-yard touchdown.
In addition to Tagovailoa's throwing traits, which I have compared to Kurt Warner's, the junior quarterback has the movement skills that mesh with today's modern pro schemes. He can be used on QB-designed runs, run-pass options (RPOs) and play-action concepts that allow him to move outside of the pocket. Pair that with surgical accuracy -- he completed 69.5% of his passes last season on his way to being Heisman runner-up -- and Tagovailoa is very much in the discussion to go No. 1 overall next April.
Game you have to watch: at Auburn in the Iron Bowl on Nov. 30. I want to see Tua put up numbers -- and punch a ticket to the SEC title game -- against a Tigers defense that flies to the ball.
Justin Herbert, Oregon
Class: Senior | Height: 6-6 | Weight: 237
Kiper rank: 8 | McShay rank: 7
Key stat to know: 69 TD passes and just 17 INTs in his career
How he dominates: Physical tools
With natural arm talent and an athletic 6-foot-6 frame, Herbert has the physical makeup of a QB1 in the NFL. And I can see that on his film. Just take a run through Herbert's 15-plus-yard throws. He can push the ball down the field, pepper the seams or challenge on deep cuts outside of the numbers. He has velocity and touch (see the clip below). Plus, with above-average mobility, he can get off the spot to make second-reaction throws.
Oregon's Justin Herbert throws a perfect pass to wide receiver Dillon Mitchell for the 34-yard touchdown.
I understand the concerns about some of Herbert's decision-making last season, and he struggled with consistency at times. If Herbert can boost his completion percentage from that 59.4% clip of last season and show more production on a week-to-week basis, he will climb up the top of the draft board. Can Herbert's tape match up to the natural traits in his game? That's what I want to see from the quarterback this season in an Oregon scheme that will create positive pass-game opportunities.
Game you have to watch: vs. Cal on Oct. 5. I want to see Herbert make smart decisions and fit the ball into tight windows against an aggressive Bears secondary that is coached by former NFL defensive back Gerald Alexander.
The special playmaker
A wide receiver at No. 1 overall? It will take a team passing on a quarterback or edge rusher because of a generational talent. That's what this wideout is:
Jerry Jeudy, Alabama
Class: Junior | Height: 6-1 | Weight: 192
Kiper rank: 1 | McShay rank: 2
Stat to know: Averaged 19.3 yards per catch in 2018
How he dominates: Play speed
We haven't seen a wide receiver go No. 1 overall since USC's Keyshawn Johnson in 1996. Before that? Go all the way back to Irving Fryar out of Nebraska in 1984. I'm putting Jeudy in the mix, though, because he has all the elite traits of a top-end receiver who can produce in an NFL route tree.
Jeudy's route running is so slick. The separation ability pops, too. And his play speed is going to jump off the screen, just as it did in Alabama's opening win over Duke (check out the video below). Over the summer, I picked out Odell Beckham Jr. as a player comp for Jeudy. That's the ability to win at all three levels of the field, plus the explosive play talent. As we see with Beckham, Jeudy can make a house call from anywhere on the field. He's a special talent.
Jerry Jeudy catches the short pass and shows off his skills for a 21-yard touchdown.
Game you have to watch: vs. LSU on Nov. 9. Give me the matchup of Jeudy against a loaded LSU secondary led by potential first-round picks Grant Delpit and Kristian Fulton.
The toolsy pass-rushers
Outside of quarterback, this is the position to most likely be drafted No. 1. And these pass-rushers have the traits to do it:
Chase Young, DE, Ohio State
Class: Junior | Height: 6-5 | Weight: 265
Kiper rank: 2 | McShay rank: 5
Key stat to know: 9.5 sacks in 2018
How he dominates: Speed-to-power
Turn on Young's tape and you'll see an edge rusher with twitch, power and the athleticism to win on stunts along the Buckeyes' defensive front (see video below). Young had 9.5 sacks and 14.5 total tackles for loss last season, and he already has three sacks this season. He is quick off the ball. Plus, his ability to convert speed to power will be a jumping point for his developmental path in the pros.
Miles Sanders gets tackled for a loss on fourth down by Chase Young as the Buckeyes take over and hold on for a 27-26 win.
The next step? Building a deeper toolbox of countermoves to get the pass-rush technique on par with his movement traits. Young fits best as a defensive end in a 40 front, and the upside here is real. He is a disruptive player who could rise up the board quickly if we see more detail in his pass-rush arsenal.
Game you have to watch: at Michigan on Nov. 30. The best rivalry in college football. And this game could have College Football Playoff implications for Young and the Buckeyes.
A.J. Epenesa, DE, Iowa
Class: Junior | Height: 6-5 | Weight: 277
Kiper rank: 5 | McShay rank: 9
Key stat to know: 10.5 sacks in 2018
How he dominates: High-level technique
Epenesa will see an uptick in snaps this season after he racked up 16.5 tackles for loss in a rotational role last season. He has top-10 traits with his long 6-foot-5 frame and power that pops at the point of attack. A potential edge setter versus the run, Epenesa fits in both 40 and 30 fronts in the NFL, with the pass-rush counters to make a quick transition to the pro game.
While Epenesa isn't going to be tagged as a pass-rusher with an elite combo of speed and bend to rip up grass off the snap, his hand usage (see the clip below), strength and technique base consistently show up when he's working against opposing offensive tackles. He'll use the rip move, slap down on the hands and club to gain leverage in one-on-one matchups. And with Epenesa playing a three-down role in 2019, he's going to put up some sick numbers.
Iowa's offense capitalizes off a forced fumble as Nate Stanley finds Ihmir Smith-Marsette for a 15-yard touchdown.
Game you have to watch: at Wisconsin on Nov. 9. Check out Epenesa setting the edge in the run game and working his pass-rush technique against a nasty Badgers offensive front.
Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn
Class: Senior | Height: 6-5 | Weight: 318
Kiper rank: 9 | McShay rank: 6
Key stat to know: 10.5 tackles for loss in 2018
How he dominates: Raw power
Brown is a classic interior disruptor, and the tape shows it. This guy can simply wreck plays. It's the raw power to walk blockers into the backfield. While Brown posted only 4.5 sacks last season, we have to look at the pass-rush upside here. He has a huge frame, and there are flashes of power/countermoves to get up the field.
Brown is an easy mover for his size, with the footwork and lateral quickness to emerge as a dominant run-defender at the next level. And if he can show more pass-rush production this season in a nasty Auburn front, we can expect him to shoot up draft boards. Remember, with the amount of quick-game passing in today's NFL, there is a premium on defenders who can rush in the interior gaps. Brown has the potential to be that guy.
Game you have to watch: vs. Georgia on Nov. 16. I want to see improved pass-rush production from Brown against a Dawgs offensive line that has NFL talent, including a tackle who could go in the top 10 in 2020.
The stud offensive tackles
There have been just two offensive tackles picked No. 1 overall over the past 20 years -- Jake Long (2008) and Eric Fisher (2013). But two tackles in this 2020 class are good enough to be in the discussion:
Tristan Wirfs, Iowa
Class: Junior | Height: 6-5 | Weight: 322
Kiper rank: 7 | McShay rank: 30
How he dominates: Athletic power
Wirfs is a freaky mover at 322 pounds, with the power base and athleticism to dominate in both the run and pass game. With live feet and a solid anchor, he handles speed or power off the edge. Wirfs can quickly reset to take on countermoves, and that punch on contact has some juice behind it. Plus, as a run-blocker, he displays the finishing power to move defenders off the ball.
Wirfs plays right tackle for the Hawkeyes, but that doesn't mean he can't be the first tackle off the board. And I expect the Iowa product to test extremely well in the pre-draft process.
Game you have to watch: vs. Penn State on Oct. 12. It's Wirfs head-to-head against edge rusher Yetur Gross-Matos. Give me all the one-on-ones here in Kinnick Stadium.
Andrew Thomas, Georgia
Class: Junior | Height: 6-5 | Weight: 320
Kiper rank: 6 | McShay rank: 20
How he dominates: Footwork
It's all about the upside with Thomas. You can see that with his footwork and overall athleticism. While Thomas can struggle with power off the edge -- and needs to develop more core strength -- he shows the ability to slide or match up to speed. And with that long frame, Thomas has the traits to jump into the discussion.
Do I want to see more growth from him this season? Sure. Thomas could be a fast riser who cements his draft status as a high-end prospect by January.
Game you have to watch: vs. Notre Dame on Sept. 21. National stage in prime time. And we could get some matchups with Thomas against pass-rusher Julian Okwara, a potential first-round prospect.
The wild cards
These five prospects might be long shots to go No. 1, but they deserve to be mentioned. Let's start with the class's consensus preseason top defensive back:
Grant Delpit, S, LSU
Kiper rank: 3 | McShay rank: 3
Former LSU safety Jamal Adams went No. 6 overall to the New York Jets in 2017, and I would anticipate Delpit being drafted in that same range. But we need to hit on Delpit here because he has the versatile traits to be an immediate-impact player. Picture Delpit as a rolled down safety/hybrid slot defender who can track ball carriers and blitz and finish on the ball in coverage. He racked up five sacks, five interceptions and nine pass breakups last season. There is production and high-end tape here with the physical defensive back.
Jacob Eason, QB, Washington
Kiper rank: No. 3 underclassmen QB | McShay rank: NR
The past two No. 1 overall picks -- Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray -- weren't seen as big-time prospects when they began their final seasons in college. But that's why we have to take a look at Eason. The Georgia transfer threw for 2,430 yards and 16 touchdowns during his freshman season in Athens in 2016 before getting injured and losing his job. Now he's starting again and off to a decent start, though Washington was upset at home by Cal. Eason has stellar size at 6-foot-6, 237 pounds, and the arm talent jumps. With those traits, he could rise quickly as he improves in Washington's pro passing scheme. It's worth noting that Eason is only a fourth-year junior, so he could return to school in 2020.
Jacob Eason slings a 50-yard pass to Andre Baccellia, who runs it in for a touchdown to put the Huskies up 14-0.
Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State
Kiper rank: 15 | McShay rank: 4
I want to bring Okudah into the discussion because of the elite coverage skills I see on the tape. Whether the Buckeyes cornerback is pressed, bailing at the snap or aligned in an off-man position, he is silky smooth in coverage. That's the footwork, hip flexibility and closing quicks to drive on the football. He gets there in a hurry. While Okudah had eight pass breakups last season and has another this season, he has yet to post an interception. I want to see Okudah finish plays this season, but he has the traits and coverage skills to be the first defensive back off the board.
Jake Fromm, QB, Georgia
Kiper rank: 25 | McShay rank: 36
Fromm doesn't display a rocket arm on tape, but he tossed 27 touchdowns for the Bulldogs last season and is completing 73.5% of his passes in two games this season. At 6-foot-2, 220 pounds, he is a rhythm thrower who can identify and anticipate windows. And that fits in today's heavy misdirection/play-action NFL offenses. Yes, Fromm is probably a long shot to jump into the discussion as the No. 1 overall pick, but he could be a first-rounder if he improves his deep-ball throwing in 2019.
Yetur Gross-Matos, DE, Penn State
Kiper rank: 16 | McShay rank: 35
Gross-Matos put up eight sacks and 20 total tackles for loss while playing as a down defensive end last season, but I could see him playing rush linebacker in the NFL. At 6-foot-5, 262 pounds with a long frame, he could dial in as an edge rusher from both a two- and three-point stance. That athleticism shows up immediately on tape with Gross-Matos, who has 3.5 sacks in two games this season.