A year after five quarterbacks were picked in the first round of the 2018 NFL draft -- tying a record for most QBs in the first round (1983) -- there's an outside chance we could see five more first-rounders in the 2019 draft. Seriously. And one of those teams that picked one last year is likely to pick another in Round 1 this year.
That's why fit matters so much with quarterbacks. It doesn't matter how talented a QB is if he ends up in a poor situation with little talent around him.
So let's find the best fits for the top seven quarterbacks in the 2019 class, starting with Kyler Murray, who could go No. 1 overall.
Jump to a QB:
Murray | Haskins | Lock
Jones | Finley | Stidham | Grier
Kyler Murray, Oklahoma
Best NFL fit: Arizona Cardinals
Murray is an easy fit as the top pick in Arizona under new coach Kliff Kingsbury. Start with the Air Raid pass concepts in Kingsbury's playbook. There is some carry-over from the Oklahoma offense that allowed Murray to throw for 4,361 yards and 47 touchdowns last season. That's the Y-cross, hitch-seam, mesh and four verticals, among other routes. These are core concepts that we will see in Kingsbury's game plans in 2019. And Murray, who completed 69 percent of his passes in his lone year as a college starter, can attack all three levels of the defense from the pocket.
Plus, Kingsbury can cater directly to Murray's dual-threat talent with a deep collection of run-pass options (RPOs) and QB-designed runs. Murray has legit straight-line speed and the lateral quicks to shake defenders at the point of attack. You don't need a stopwatch time to see that on the tape. And we know he can threaten opposing defenses on second-reaction plays, just like he did on this touchdown pass against Alabama in the Orange Bowl (check out the video below). Recognize the pressure, step up, then drop an absolute dime on the move. Ridiculous.
Kyler Murray keeps Oklahoma alive with a perfect 49-yard touchdown pass to Charleston Rambo in the third quarter.
Now, I understand the concerns over Murray's 5-foot-10 frame, but I also look at the unique skill set, which reminds me of playing against Michael Vick during my time in the league. Putting Murray in Kingsbury's system will allow the Heisman Trophy winner to maximize his game.
Dwayne Haskins, Ohio State
Best NFL fit: Washington Redskins
Could Haskins slide in Round 1 and be available when Washington picks at No. 15? It's possible. But I also see a situation in which Washington trades up to draft him. The 6-foot-3, 231-pound pocket thrower is a great fit in Jay Gruden's heavily schemed, West Coast passing game.
With veteran Case Keenum on the roster, Haskins won't be asked to play immediately. That's a positive thing after going deep into his film. It's more time for Haskins -- who has only 14 career college starts -- to correct his lower-body mechanics, which need to improve versus NFL speed.
At Ohio State, Haskins displayed an easy arm, and you can see it in his 50 touchdown passes from 2018. I'm talking about the ability to push the ball down the field and attack underneath on shallow crossers and in-cuts. He also showed his ability on touch throws to find soft windows in zone coverage. And the film on his last three games, in which Haskins racked up 14 touchdown passes in wins over Michigan, Northwestern and Washington, shows us the necessary traits to win from the pocket in the league.
Take a look at the touchdown toss here in the Rose Bowl (check out the video below). With the Huskies dropping eight in the high red zone -- which Haskins will see in the NFL -- the quarterback looks to the boundary side, then comes back to find the hole in the coverage. Throws the post for six points.
Dwayne Haskins throws to Johnnie Dixon, who's wide-open in the end zone, to put Ohio State up by two possessions.
In Washington, Haskins would give the Redskins a boost in the vertical passing game. This offense lacked explosive plays in 2018, and Haskins has the ability to alter that. The size is there, and so is the pocket movement. And while he will go through the ups and downs of a rookie quarterback, his upside is extremely high. This is a young quarterback who can throw on rhythm, hit the West Coast concepts in Gruden's offense out of multiple personnel groupings, and aggressively take his shots to target the top of the secondary.
Drew Lock, Missouri
Best NFL fit: Denver Broncos
Lock checks off all the boxes that Broncos general manager John Elway looks for at the position. That's height and weight (6-foot-4, 228 pounds), movement skills (above-average athleticism and a 4.69 40-yard dash at the combine) and arm strength -- Lock has the strongest arm in this class, and it's not close. He has top-15 traits, and Denver could take him No. 10 overall with a plan to develop him behind recently signed veteran Joe Flacco, who has three years left on his contract but no guaranteed money.
From a system and coaching fit, I also like the idea of Lock working with new Broncos offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello. For the past two seasons, Scangarello was the quarterback coach in Kyle Shanahan's offense in San Francisco, which would cater to Lock's game. Think of Lock off play-pass concepts, the movement and boot schemes, and the dropback concepts that put defenders in conflict, which lead to open-window throws.
Just like we see here from Lock on the post-crosser versus Florida -- which is also a top concept in Shanahan's system. Climb the pocket and rip the ball down the field to hit the post:
Missouri WR Kam Scott hauls in a 41-yard touchdown and does the gator chomp in the direction of the crowd to celebrate.
Yes, there are negatives to Lock's game that the Broncos will need to coach out of him. Even with the arm strength and athleticism to throw the ball from any platform, his inconsistent accuracy and mechanics, decision-making and lack of consistent touch led to subpar production versus SEC competition in college. In fact, Lock completed just 53 percent of his passes with 47 touchdowns and 31 interceptions against SEC opponents during his college career.
But given the measurables that fit Elway's desired profile at the position, plus an offensive system that can put quarterbacks in a positive position, I could see the Broncos drafting Lock as the eventual QB1 for new coach Vic Fangio.
Daniel Jones, Duke
Best NFL fit: New York Giants
With the Giants holding two first-round picks -- Nos. 6 and 17 -- general manager Dave Gettleman could use his first pick to draft a pass-rusher or a big boy up front on the offensive line, then land Jones with his second pick to give New York a young quarterback to compete with veteran Eli Manning, who has just one year left on his contract. And taking Jones, who has a lot of upside, meshes with Gettleman's profile on building the roster.
I would like to see Jones speed up his release for coach Pat Shurmur's offense, but he's a fundamentally sound thrower who would fit in a system that blends West Coast and spread concepts. Jones has shown accuracy in the short-to-intermediate route tree, plus he has enough arm strength to challenge the top and manipulate post safeties when given the opportunities.
And Shurmur can add more RPO/play-pass concepts to take advantage of Jones' ability to target the quick game throws inside the numbers, like this red zone touchdown pass from Jones against Northwestern:
Daniel Jones successfully connects with T.J. Rahming for a 9-yard Duke touchdown.
Jones could be available near the end of the first round, bringing both the Los Angeles Chargers and New England Patriots into play. But given the state of the Giants' roster, and Manning's subpar 2018 season, New York should go after him and make him the quarterback of the future. Jones has the movement skills, toughness and technical base to develop.
Ryan Finley, NC State
Best NFL fit: Cincinnati Bengals
With new Bengals coach Zac Taylor bringing Sean McVay's system to Cincinnati, I looked for a quarterback with the mechanics, movement ability and processing speed to make rhythm throws. For me, that's Finley, who played in a modern passing attack in college.
The Bengals could opt to take a quarterback at No. 13 overall if Haskins or Lock slide. But in this situation, with Andy Dalton the expected starter in Taylor's first season, they could target Finley in Round 2, taking him at No. 42 overall.
This would give Finley the bonus time to grow at the position, cleaning up his footwork from under center, from the top of his drop to the finish on his release. Plus, Finley could use some extra work in the weight room to add size to his 6-foot-4 frame.
The key here, however, is an offense that fits with Finley's traits based on his college tape. And with Taylor's offense, we know about the pre-snap movement and concepts that create opportunities for the quarterback to go through the backfield mechanics, while throwing on rhythm to beat both man and zone coverage.
Want an example? Check out the throw from Finley against Syracuse:
NC State wide receiver Kelvin Harmon blows by the defense and hauls in the 74-yard touchdown pass.
It should look familiar given the backfield action we saw from the Rams last season. Pre-snap wide receiver motion, play-pass, and dial up the shot to the post. Finley can make the throws in this offense, and he has enough mobility to the edge of the pocket off play-action. The NC State product could be a solid Day 2 quarterback with developmental upside in this new Cincinnati offense.
Jarrett Stidham, Auburn
Best NFL fit: New England Patriots
Stidham's 2018 film is tough to evaluate because of the limited Auburn route tree and poor play of the offense overall. When you study his tape from 2017, however, you can see his potential. I focused on his mechanics and mobility, plus the intermediate accuracy and how well he anticipates middle-of-the-field throws. Stidham can accelerate his development if he lands with the right coaching and system approach.
That's why I'm looking at the Patriots, who head into the draft with five picks on Day 2, including two second-rounders at Nos. 56 and 64. Plus, New England has a history under Bill Belichick of drafting and developing quarterbacks, with Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett as recent examples.
The New England system under offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels? It's a fit for Stidham given McDaniels' game plans, which target opposing defenses underneath -- using play-action pass and the dropback game -- while picking spots to challenge vertically or up the seams. Think two-level reads, especially in the high red zone with a flat concept partied to a corner route, like this ball Stidham threw in the win over Texas A&M last season (check out the video below).
Auburn QB Jarrett Stidham fires a beautiful ball to Seth Williams, who hauls it in for the 11-yard touchdown.
At the Senior Bowl workouts, Stidham showed the ability to progress throughout the week with NFL coaching, and I see a prospect here who grades out as a No. 2 with more growth potential in the right system. In New England, where the Patriots need a young quarterback to work with behind veteran Tom Brady, Stidham is a quality fit. He is a smooth thrower with the makeup to succeed in today's pro game.
Will Grier, West Virginia
Best NFL fit: Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins have multiple roster holes that can be filled with an immediate impact player with their first-round pick (No. 13). And after signing veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick in free agency, Miami can look at the quarterback position later in the draft on Day 2, at picks Nos. 48 or 72. That puts Grier in the mix, a super productive college quarterback who played in a spread system.
In the West Virginia offense, Grier worked often off his initial read, with some predetermined throws. But if we look closer at his traits, Grier could fit with Miami and new offensive coordinator Chad O'Shea, the former wide receiver coach in New England. And similar to what we just discussed with Stidham in New England system, Grier would fit given his three-level accuracy and his ability to make deep-ball throws. Take a look at the seam route Grier hit in the shootout with Oklahoma last season:
West Virginia QB Will Grier throws it to Gary Jennings Jr. who speeds into the end zone on a 75-yard touchdown play.
With the roster that new coach Brian Flores inherited in Miami, the Dolphins could very well be in a position to target Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa or another quarterback at the top of the 2020 draft. That shouldn't prevent Miami from adding Grier to the mix as a strong candidate to eventually get some live game reps in 2019. The Dolphins need talent and depth across the board.