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senior NFL draft analyst- Todd McShay is a senior NFL draft analyst for ESPN, providing in-depth scouting reports on the nation's top pro prospects. He also serves as a college football field analyst on Saturdays in the fall. Todd joined ESPN in 2006 and contributes to SportsCenter, NFL Live, College Football Live and ESPN Radio. He is a Massachusetts native and was a backup quarterback at the University of Richmond. You can follow Todd on Twitter via @McShay13.
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ESPN Stats & Info- Senior Stats Analyst for ESPN Stats & Information
- Contributes to ESPN Chalk section
- Worked at ESPN since 2009
They say numbers never lie, and it certainly helps in scouting to have them support -- or differentiate from -- what we see in draft-prospect evaluations.
We took the top 10 ranked 2019 NFL draft quarterbacks -- Kyler Murray, Dwayne Haskins, Drew Lock, Ryan Finley, Jarrett Stidham, Daniel Jones, Tyree Jackson, Will Grier, Clayton Thorson and Gardner Minshew -- and looked at five key statistical areas. What do the numbers really say about the next wave of NFL signal-calling talent?
ESPN Stats & Information pulled two telling stats for each of the five categories, and NFL draft analyst Todd McShay evaluated the numbers against what he has seen on tape. Stats & Info's John Parolin provided some context for the numbers against other draft classes and the rest of the FBS.
Jump to:
Pressure | Deep ball | Pocket
Out route | Accuracy
Who can extend plays under duress?
McShay: I always put more value in pressure than the blitz factor. You have to consider the full picture. Blitz numbers aren't just on the quarterback; they're a function of the team's offense. But pressure is just pressure, and performance in such circumstances definitely correlates to success in the NFL. You're looking for efficiency under duress when QBs are forced to make faster decisions with fewer open receivers. It's an important component of evaluating QB talent.
With that in mind, Jackson is a pretty interesting case. He has some wheels (4.59 40-yard dash) and the arm strength to deliver throws under pressure, but that offense didn't help him out much when opponents sent the blitz. His pocket awareness puts him behind the eight ball a little when the house crashes down.
Parolin: Exactly two of the 47 Power 5 and Mountain West quarterbacks drafted since 2012 had better Total QBRs under pressure in their previous season than Jackson: Sam Darnold (twice) and Baker Mayfield. Andrew Luck posted a 23.7 in 2011, and Jared Goff had a 23.0 in 2016.
McShay: Finley's success here isn't surprising; he processes very quickly and gets through his progressions without delay. He senses pressure and knows when to climb and when to slide laterally, all while keeping his eyes downfield. Additionally, he comes with above-average mobility.
Parolin: The NC State QB indeed carved up blitzes last year (14 touchdowns, one interception), and his worst game -- a 41-7 loss vs. Clemson -- came when he was blitzed on only eight of 35 passing plays.
McShay: It's a good sign to see the top guys hang tough against pressure, too. I think Haskins can extend plays better than people give him credit for, and Lock and Murray excel just as we expected. Murray's 98.0 Total QBR against the blitz certainly had a lot to do with him, but it's also a result of the weapons he had in the Sooners' passing game and an offensive line that is sending four players to the draft this year. But it should shock no one that such an explosive athlete is terrific when forced to create.
Parolin: Yeah, none of the 47 QB draft picks since 2012 -- not Mayfield, Goff, Luck, Patrick Mahomes or anyone else -- were more effective against a blitz than Murray. And he wasn't simply outrunning linebackers, either. Murray was blitzed 105 times last season and scrambled only 17 times for nine yards. Murray did his damage against at least five pass-rushers through the air, completing 72 percent of his throws with 18 passing touchdowns and two interceptions.
Oklahoma's Kyler Murray is an aggressive playmaker with a strong arm, quick release and good passing accuracy.
McShay: Jones stood out as a potential first-round guy who really struggles under pressure. He just isn't a quick-twitch guy, and he locks onto targets and hangs onto the ball too long. Pressure really starts to impact his accuracy during the course of a game. And Jones ran a 4.81 40 at the combine, but there's a big difference between straight-line speed and creating space in the pocket. A QB has to buy time early in his NFL career before he learns how to see the entire picture. His lack of ability to do so is a little concerning.
Who thrives when airing it out?
Parolin: There were 20 quarterbacks drafted in the past seven drafts with below 20 percent in deep-ball off-target percentage, all better than this year's standard-bearer in Lock.
McShay: This is another one we need to keep in perspective. Murray, for instance, has great deep accuracy and a natural feel for touch and trajectory, but he also had more wide-open receivers than the rest of this bunch, thanks to his system and personnel. Certainly more than Stidham, Thorson and Jones had.
Parolin: How about Jackson, Todd? He had 106 deep attempts last season, over twice the per-game average of an FBS quarterback. Yet he joins Stidham and Jones as more likely to overthrow or underthrow a deep target than complete the pass. Thirty-seven quarterbacks were drafted in the past seven drafts who had a higher off-target percentage than completion percentage on deep balls. Twenty-four never started a game at quarterback, and the career record of the other 13 is 71-110. Goff and Lamar Jackson look like the outliers here, but the list is littered with names like Zach Mettenberger, Trevor Siemian, Cody Kessler, Mike Glennon and Brett Hundley.
McShay: Yeah, Jackson absolutely reflects what I see on tape. You can have the strongest arm in the world, but if you drop it in the wrong place, it has no use. His lower-body mechanics and ball placement are erratic. The accuracy is a big reason he's only my No. 7 quarterback.
Parolin: Grier is worth pointing out here, too. The only selected Power 5/Mountain West quarterbacks in the past seven drafts to match Grier's deep-ball stat line (16-plus pass touchdowns, 44 percent or better completion percentage and two or fewer interceptions) were Robert Griffin III in 2011 and Mayfield in 2016.
McShay: Yeah, that's intriguing to me because he frequently throws off-balance and has a habit of falling off his downfield throws on tape. But he can certainly drive the ball vertically.
What kind of QB are you looking for?
McShay: When you look at the numbers here, it's just pretty evident why Murray is the top guy. In fact, that might be the biggest takeaway from this entire exercise. Nothing pulls him down. Everyone views Murray as a run-first QB, but he is excellent in the pocket too. He's a lot like Mayfield was a year ago, when he excelled statistically in pretty much every area. Part of it is the Oklahoma system, but the talent is also just completely off the charts.
Parolin: When Murray gets picked, he'll become the second drafted quarterback since the 2012 draft with a 90-plus Total QBR both inside and outside the pocket in a single season. Who joins 5-foot-10 Murray? That would be 5-foot-10 Russell Wilson, who just became the highest-paid player in the NFL.
Dwayne Haskins is a gifted pocket passer out of Ohio State with good arm strength.
McShay: Haskins' pocket presence and Lock's mobility and arm strength are apparent here as well. There isn't a better pocket passer in the entire class than Haskins, and Lock has the athleticism and cannon to make things happen on the run. Grier and Stidham also popped out to me, but not in a good way. They can both move pretty well, but throwing on the run is not an area of strength for either.
What does the NFL out route show us?
Parolin: A 15-yard out doesn't sound intimidating until you figure out how far that throw actually is. A QB in the middle of the field is 80 feet from the sideline, meaning a "15-yard out" throw will actually travel over 30 yards into what can be a very tight window. Rainbow-launch angles won't work with the sideline, and underthrows invite catastrophe.
McShay: Yeah, I look at these types of throws in my evaluations because of the timing. Quarterbacks have to anticipate well, get the ball out before the break and drive it there with authority. You can see arm strength, delivery timing and instincts all wrapped into one throw.
Parolin: These are big-money throws, and this is the first spot Stidham really shines. There's a small sample size here with only 31 attempts, but that 71 percent completion percentage is easily the best in a season among the 47 drafted quarterbacks in Stats & Info's data set (drafts since 2012).
McShay: He flashes potential. Auburn's offense just didn't ask him to make these throws much, but he really excels in that intermediate 15-to-25-yard range. He has good overall arm strength and can fit the ball into tight spots. Minshew has some good numbers on this particular throw too. He has a good feel for trajectory and timing, despite not having the arm to really drive vertically.
Parolin: So, who does have a strong sample size? Finley led this 10-pack with 63 out routes. And he will be the only Power 5/Mountain West quarterback drafted since 2012 with a 60-plus percent completion percentage on 60-plus such attempts.
McShay: That comes back to his very good timing and anticipation, making up for just average zip. Lock's sample size was also pretty small, but I would have expected better statistics from him here. He is good under pressure, is one of the more accurate passers in the draft and certainly has the arm, but this out route appears to be an outlier. And he can't blame his receivers in this spot. He has to be able to place this throw.
Which QB hits his spots the best?
Parolin: There are only two quarterbacks who ranked in the top six here in short-range (10 yards or fewer), intermediate (11-20 yards) and deep-ball (20-plus yards) off-target percentage: Murray and Haskins. It's no surprise they're expected to be off the board first in the 2019 draft.
McShay: I was even more intrigued by Finley in this area. Simply put, this is exactly what you see from him on tape. When throwing short-to-intermediate distances, he's as accurate as anyone in the class. It's only when you ask him to go deep that the issues really begin. The arm strength isn't there, but the touch and anticipation are very apparent.
Clayton Thorson is a quarterback out of Northwestern who threw for 17 touchdowns and more than 3,000 yards in his senior season.
Parolin: The numbers also seem to support Jones' reputation for short-range accuracy, and he's still respectable on intermediate throws. He feels somewhat similar to Finley. But Tyree ... yikes. Jackson and Minshew are the only two quarterbacks here below the FBS average in both ranges.
McShay: Tyree is Tyree. That 40.4 percent off-target accuracy for intermediate yardage is just shockingly bad. He truly is the wild card of the group, and the numbers confirm what you see in evaluations: He's the least accurate of the top draft prospects. Jackson is big (6-foot-7, 249 pounds), fast and smart, but he has to figure out the accuracy if he's going to have a chance of playing in the NFL at some point.
Thorson is another one who is all over the place and very streaky with placing the ball. He can make some really impressive anticipation throws at times, but also misses within the strike zone too often.