As the 2018 NFL draft nears, it's time to run through our draft tier rankings, which use our grades to separate prospects into different groups. This is helpful when comparing players who are close to each other in the rankings. It also helps in predicting where players will come off the board during the first three rounds of the draft.
Here are our draft tiers for 2018, covering every prospect with a first-, second- or third-round grade. (I've put each player's grade in parentheses next to his name.) I have 108 total prospects here:
Tier 1
Elite prospects. Should be Day 1 starters and project as perennial All Pro players.
2018: three players | 2017 (at this point in the process): one player
1. Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State* (Grade: 97)
2. Quenton Nelson, OG, Notre Dame* (95)
3. Bradley Chubb, DE, NC State (95)
Barkley is a special running back and a cut above everyone else in this class. Chubb is a terrific all-around player and has the same grade as I had on Myles Garrett last year. From 2007 to 2016, my highest-rated offensive lineman was ranked, on average, fourth overall. Last year, it was Forrest Lamp at No. 15. This year, Nelson is a rock-solid prospect at guard.
Tier 2
A notch below the elite class but still considered a plug-and-play starter with high-level potential. Worthy of a top-15 pick most years.
2018: seven players | 2017: eight players
4. Sam Darnold, QB, Southern California* (94)
5. Roquan Smith, OLB, Georgia* (94)
6. Denzel Ward, DC, Ohio State* (93)
7. Derwin James, DS, Florida State* (93)
8. Minkah Fitzpatrick, DS, Alabama* (93)
9. Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA* (92)
10. Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming* (92)
Darnold has been my top QB through this process, although I think there's a good chance Allen goes No. 1 to the Browns. Ward is the best cover corner in the draft and Smith has been a hot name recently when I've spoken with scouts. Smith is the best off-the-line linebacker of the past few drafts.
Tier 3
These prospects grade out as good starters and are considered good values in the bottom half of Round 1 in any given draft class.
2018: 10 players | 2017: 10 players
11. Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma (91)
12. Vita Vea, DT, Washington* (91)
13. Da'Ron Payne, DT, Alabama* (91)
14. Tremaine Edmunds, OLB, Virginia Tech* (91)
15. Jaire Alexander, DC, Louisville* (90)
16. Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama* (90)
17. Mike Hughes, DC, Central Florida* (90)
18. Taven Bryan, DT, Florida* (90)
19. Josh Jackson, DC, Iowa* (90)
20. Rashaan Evans, ILB, Alabama (90)
Mayfield's height bothers some but he's instinctive and accurate, and he's also the most experienced QB in this class. And despite that grade, I'll be shocked if he doesn't go in the top 11. Edmunds is an athletic freak and only 19 years old. Ridley is the clear top wideout in this class, but poor athletic testing at the combine could drop him. I don't think he's a true No. 1 NFL wide receiver.
Tier 4
Grade out as future good NFL starters. Second-round value.
2018: 19 players | 2017: 27 players
21. Marcus Davenport, DE, UTSA (89)
22. James Daniels, OC, Iowa* (89)
23. D.J. Moore, WR, Maryland* (89)
24. Will Hernandez, OG, UTEP (89)
25. Dallas Goedert, TE, South Dakota State (89)
26. Hayden Hurst, TE, South Carolina* (89)
27. Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame (88)
28. Justin Reid, DS, Stanford* (88)
29. Sony Michel, RB, Georgia (88)
30. Isaiah Wynn, OG, Georgia (88)
31. Derrius Guice, RB, LSU* (87)
32. Harold Landry, OLB, Boston College (87)
33. Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville* (86)
34. Connor Williams, OG, Texas* (85)
35. Ronnie Harrison, DS, Alabama* (85)
36. Donte Jackson, DC, LSU* (85)
37. Maurice Hurst, DT, Michigan (85)
38. Billy Price, OC, Ohio State (85)
39. Ronald Jones II, RB, Southern California* (85)
I know Kiper will get on me, but I did like D.J. Moore's tape, and he's a likely 1 or early 2. Goedert and Hurst are both solid tight ends; Goedert has more potential to be a star. Lamar Jackson is an intriguing prospect, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him go late in the first. His progress as a QB will depend on if he goes to the right fit.
Tier 5
Grade out as future solid-to-good NFL starters but might need to serve in sub-package/situational role early in career. Mid-to-late-second-round value.
2018: 26 players | 2017: 16 players
40. Harrison Phillips, DT, Stanford (84)
41. Lorenzo Carter, OLB, Georgia (84)
42. Tyrell Crosby, OT, Oregon (84)
43. Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA* (84)
44. Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M* (84)
45. D.J. Chark, WR, LSU (83)
46. Jessie Bates III, DS, Wake Forest* (83)
47. Geron Christian, OT, Louisville* (83)
48. Brian O'Neill, OT, Pittsburgh* (82)
49. Darius Leonard, OLB, South Carolina State (82)
50. Isaiah Oliver, DC, Colorado* (82)
51. B.J. Hill, DT, NC State (82)
52. Rasheem Green, DE, Southern California* (82)
53. Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia (82)
54. Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU* (82)
55. Anthony Miller, WR, Memphis (81)
56. Rashaad Penny, RB, San Diego State (81)
57. Mike Gesicki, TE, Penn State (81)
58. Leighton Vander Esch, ILB, Boise State* (81)
59. Arden Key, DE, LSU* (81)
60. Martinas Rankin, OC, Mississippi State (81)
61. Carlton Davis, DC, Auburn* (81)
62. Jerome Baker, OLB, Ohio State* (81)
63. Tim Settle, DT, Virginia Tech* (81)
64. Austin Corbett, OG, Nevada (80)
65. Jordan Lasley, WR, UCLA* (80)
Chark has been a riser after his Senior Bowl and combine performances. Same with Bates and Chubb, who turned heads in Indy. Key has first-round ability but has fallen due to off-field issues.
Tier 6
Project as future solid starters but they need time to develop, have limited upside or come with baggage. Third-round value.
2018: 43 players | 2017: 49 players
66. Orlando Brown, OT, Oklahoma* (79)
67. Anthony Averett, DC, Alabama (79)
68. Frank Ragnow, OC, Arkansas (79)
69. Isaac Yiadom, DC, Boston College (78)
70. Antonio Callaway, WR, Florida* (78)
71. Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State (78)
72. Sam Hubbard, DE, Ohio State* (78)
73. Braden Smith, OG, Auburn (78)
74. Desmond Harrison, OT, West Georgia (78)
75. M.J. Stewart, DC, North Carolina (77)
76. Jalyn Holmes, DE, Ohio State (77)
77. Nathan Shepherd, DT, Fort Hays State (77)
78. James Washington, WR, Oklahoma State (77)
79. Terrell Edmunds, DS, Virginia Tech* (77)
80. Josh Sweat, DE, Florida State* (76)
81. Tyquan Lewis, DE, Ohio State (75)
82. Holton Hill, DC, Texas* (75)
83. Ian Thomas, TE, Indiana (74)
84. Parry Nickerson, DC, Tulane (74)
85. Kyle Lauletta, QB, Richmond (74)
86. Bo Scarbrough, RB, Alabama* (74)
87. Duke Dawson, DC, Florida (73)
88. Uchenna Nwosu, OLB, Southern California (73)
89. Michael Dickson, P, Texas* (73)
90. Kalen Ballage, RB, Arizona State (73)
91. Mason Cole, OC, Michigan (72)
92. Andrew Brown, DE, Virginia (72)
93. DaeSean Hamilton, WR, Penn State (72)
94. Derrick Nnadi, DT, Florida State (72)
95. Malik Jefferson, OLB, Texas* (72)
96. Kameron Kelly, DS, San Diego State (72)
97. Royce Freeman, RB, Oregon (71)
98. Jamarco Jones, OT, Ohio State (71)
99. Deon Cain, WR, Clemson* (71)
100. Hercules Mata'afa, DT, Washington State* (71)
101. Josey Jewell, ILB, Iowa (71)
102. Avonte Maddox, CB, Pitt (71)
103. Kyzir White, S, West Virginia (71)
104. Deadrin Senat, DT, South Florida (70)
105. Kerryon Johnson, RB, Auburn* (70)
106. Chukwuma Okorafor, OT, Western Michigan (70)
107. Dante Pettis, WR, Washington (70)
108. Dorance Armstrong Jr., DE, Kansas* (70)
Orlando Brown had a horrific combine, which is the only reason he's a Tier 6 player. Don't be surprised if Lauletta goes higher than people think; he processes information quickly and had a strong showing at the Senior Bowl. Scarbrough has risen up my ranks after a terrific combine.