Editor's note: Mayfield won the Heisman Trophy on Saturday night.
The field for the 83rd Heisman Trophy is set -- Baker Mayfield, Bryce Love and Lamar Jackson are the finalists to take home the award for most outstanding college football player of 2017.
So how does their college production translate to the NFL, and in which round could each be drafted? Here are my thoughts on all three collegiate stars:
Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma Sooners
2017 stats: 4,340 passing yards while completing 71.0 percent of his passes; 41 passing touchdowns to five interceptions; 310 rushing yards and five touchdowns; 93.1 Total QBR (second in FBS)
On the field, Mayfield is a brilliant quarterback and playmaker who has been one of the most productive players in the country since he transferred to Oklahoma. He has 117 passing touchdowns and just 20 interceptions over the past three seasons, and he has completed more than 70 percent of his passes during each of the past two seasons. He has a quick release and an underrated arm, and I love the way he competes. He's athletic, too.
Off the field, there are two things that make Mayfield one of the most difficult evaluations I've had to make in the past several years:
One is his maturity. He has had a few notable incidents, in addition to his February arrest in Fayetteville, Arkansas, in which he was charged with public intoxication, disorderly conduct, resisting arrest and fleeing. He called it the "biggest mistake of [his] life." These add up, and scouts are always watching. They have to consider whether their general manager and head coach see Mayfield as someone who can be the CEO of their football team.
The other question is his size. Mayfield is listed at 6-foot-1, but I think he's closer to 6 feet and maybe even a little bit under. Russell Wilson is the only NFL starting quarterback under 6 feet tall, and Drew Brees is the only NFL starting quarterback right at 6 feet even. Neither was drafted in the first round. The only recent sub-6-foot quarterback who was drafted in the first round was Johnny Manziel, who lasted just two disastrous seasons in the league. Now, Mayfield and Manziel are completely different quarterbacks, but they're going to be compared to each other for a long time because of their size and because of the way they act on the field. Manziel is a former Heisman winner who had a couple of high-profile taunting incidents. It's easy to make the connection. I think Mayfield's build is more similar to Wilson's than Manziel's, but Mayfield has to prove during interviews with teams over the next five months that he's more like Wilson than Manziel.
Where Mayfield projects in the draft: I think he's on the fringe of being a first-round pick right now. It's going to depend on his interviews with teams and the background they receive from probing people who know him best. I feel good about saying he won't make it past the second round, and he could be a big riser if he elects to go to the Senior Bowl, measures over 6 feet and has a good week of practices.
Bryce Love, RB, Stanford Cardinal
2017 stats: 1,973 rushing yards on 237 carries; 8.3 yards per carry; 17 touchdowns
Love is a home run hitter and one of the best game-breakers I've scouted over the past few years. In fact, his 12 50-yard rushes this season were the most by an FBS player over the past 10 seasons. He might be one of the fastest players in the 2018 class, and he's a tough runner who has played through injuries.
At 5-foot-10 and 195 pounds, Love is not going to get 25 carries a game in the NFL. He's not Saquon Barkley or Leonard Fournette. He has to be a change-of-pace guy. And we haven't seen the receiving skills from Love that made Christian McCaffrey so valuable in the 2017 class; Love has only caught 14 passes over the past two seasons. That's not to say he can't do it, but Stanford didn't use him that way. That's what makes his combine and team workouts so important, though. He needs to show off his hands.
Where Love projects in the draft: Because of his speed -- and he's going to light up the combine -- I think he could sneak into the bottom of the first round. It's possible he ends up the second back drafted behind Barkley. But there are some questions about his versatility. He can't be used in the slot at this stage in his career, like McCaffrey could. I think Love is a solid second-round pick if he leaves Stanford and declares for the 2018 draft.
Mike Greenberg, Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay weigh in on which college QBs will top the draft boards in 2018.
Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville Cardinals
2017 stats: 3,489 passing yards while completing 60.4 percent of his passes; 25 passing touchdowns to six interceptions; 1,443 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns; 85.9 Total QBR (third in FBS)
The 2016 Heisman Trophy winner is one of the most dynamic and athletic quarterbacks I've ever scouted. Jackson could set QB records at the combine. He really improved as a passer this season, even as he didn't have the same kind of talent around him. I wanted to see his accuracy improve -- he hit 60.4 percent of his passes -- and I wanted to see him work on his delivery. He did both. And he continued to show off the speed and running ability that makes him such an intriguing prospect; he has 38 rushing touchdowns over the past two seasons.
From the NFL scouts I've talked to, however, I think teams are going to ask Jackson to work out as a quarterback and a receiver. They want to see if he could make the transition if he didn't develop enough as a QB. He's that gifted of an athlete, and some people in the league think his lean, 6-foot-3 frame isn't suited to hold up long term at quarterback.
Jackson is the rawest of any of the top quarterback prospects in this class, but he has tremendous upside if he can put it all together. He shouldn't be asked to step in and start right away -- think more like what the Chiefs have done with 2016 first-round pick Patrick Mahomes. And again, teams like Jackson as a potential offensive weapon as a receiver too.
Where Jackson projects in the draft: If Jackson tests how I think he will at the combine, I think he's a Day 2 pick. Teams will give him a chance as a developmental prospect at quarterback, but he's such an athlete that they will find a way to get him on the field.