We've seen at least two quarterbacks selected in the first round of every draft over the past 10 years, with the exception of 2013 when there was just one (EJ Manuel, a true stunner). In fact, to find the last time a QB didn't go in Round 1, you have to go back to 1996.
How about in 2017? We'll know more in the coming months. With plenty of teams in the market for a QB, let's break this year's class into tiers and figure out how the talent compares to previous groups I've studied.
Tier 1: Talented but raw
Based on what we've seen to date, I wouldn't take any of these guys in Round 1 but believe they belong on Day 2.
Deshaun Watson, Clemson: Watson is a tough evaluation because he's really good in so many areas. Adequate size. Great athlete. Great temperament. Mobile. Good arm strength. But I haven't seen him be consistently accurate on the intermediate-to-deep throws you need to make at the next level. This season, I was expecting him to build on his performance down the stretch last season, but that just hasn't happened. One scout I talked to gave Watson a midround grade. We're in the mid-second-round range right now. I like that he seems to play his best when the game is on the line, but I need to see better timing, touch and accuracy on throws downfield.
Brad Kaaya, Miami (Fla.): Kaaya has been put in a tough spot this season, playing behind a really shaky offensive line. He has taken an absolute beating, and I think he has probably gotten into some bad habits mechanically because of his protection issues. Kaaya will be more reliant than other guys in this class on finding the right system. He's a good fit for a West Coast scheme. But he won't be for everyone because he doesn't have the arm strength to play in certain windy-weather locales. Kaaya will need to add bulk and get stronger before he can be handed the keys to a franchise. I'd like to see him return to school and get another year of experience playing in a pro-style system.
DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame: Kizer might have the best upside of anyone in this class. He has great intelligence and physical ability. But he struggles with accuracy inside the pocket and makes his fair share of mistakes. The last time we saw him, Kizer was struggling against Stanford and being benched by coach Brian Kelly. Kizer's confidence has gone south, and unless we see a major reversal in his play, I'd suggest he return to school to get more experience.
Tier 2: The lottery tickets
These guys might never be starters, but they have some impressive tools. Middle rounds is where we have them graded right now.
Luke Falk, Washington State: Falk has flashed the ability to make full-field reads. And he shows good anticipation and accuracy. But he comes from a system that has never produced a QB with sustained success in the NFL.
Chad Kelly, Ole Miss: Kelly plays with a gunslinger's mentality, which can be both good and bad. He can wow you with his physical tools and then show poor decision-making. Ole Miss' system features a lot of half-field reads and quick screens, which will make his transition tougher. I worry about his maturity too.
C.J. Beathard, Iowa: Beathard might have the best chance of anyone in this tier to have success in the NFL. He has an elite work ethic and plays in a pro-style system. Similar to Kaaya, he has developed some bad habits this season as his O-line has surprisingly struggled, but I love his intangibles.
Tier 3 The wild cards
Check back with me in a few months on these guys.
Mitch Trubisky, North Carolina: I'll be perfectly candid: I have not studied tape on Trubisky. He wasn't on our radar over the summer, having thrown just 125 passes in his prior seasons, but he's the only guy in this class who I've gotten positive feedback on from scouts. With a 71.2 completion percentage and an 18-to-2 TD-INT ratio, Trubisky has had a true breakout season. He could be moving up my board soon.
Davis Webb, Cal: Webb has good size and a big arm. He's throwing the ball all over the yard in Cal's Air Raid attack (51.7 attempts per game), and his numbers reflect that. Webb has some upside, but as we've seen with Jared Goff so far this season, it's not easy to transition from that spread attack to the NFL.
Final thoughts
This is as bad a quarterback class as I can remember. Supply never seems to meet demand when it comes to quarterbacks in the draft, but we could be looking at an extreme case this year.
As it stands now, I don't see a single franchise savior in the group. That has to concern teams like the Browns, Bears, 49ers and Jets, who could all be in the market for a quarterback in the first round.
This could change, of course, as I watch more tape (particularly on Trubisky) and as guys continue to develop. But right now, I wouldn't feel comfortable taking any of these quarterbacks in Round 1.