ESPN NFL Insider Mike Sando recently traveled to Jon Gruden's office in Tampa, Florida, to watch a seven-hour pre-draft film session with Mel Kiper Jr. After putting together a list of Gruden's favorite players, this column focuses on 15 well-known prospects Gruden feels less certain about, pulled from a pool of 62 players Gruden and Kiper analyzed during their meeting.
Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
Winston has prototypical size, a great personality, intangibles, enthusiasm and effort. He is a leader and excels on the practice field at dealing with players. He will stand in the pocket under intense fire and throw strikes, which I really admire. He can also throw to the wide side of the field against pressure and with tremendous anticipation in a manner you don't often see at any level of football.
That is all great. But when you talk about being the No. 1 pick, I'm a little leery because Winston is an unfinished product as a sophomore, he has made questionable decisions on the field and the off-field history has to be concerning.
Now, I spent a day and a half with Winston and enjoyed every second around him. I would want him on my football team. No matter how we slice it, though, there were bad decisions on and off the field. Some of his 28 interceptions were troublesome. I thought there were 12-13 other passes over the past two years that should have been picked off. There were also 36 false starts in two years, so the communication of the offense is another question mark.
A good offensive staff could help Winston with some of these things. Expectations will be high, but Winston might be best off sitting for a year and learning. Because when he does figure things out, he has all the talent you are looking for.
Arik Armstead, DE, Oregon
The measurables are there, and Armstead has an interesting athletic background as a basketball player. But when I watch the tape -- other than a base defensive end in a 3-4 defense who can two-gap a tackle, shed a block and make a tackle -- I just do not get enough Armstead on any of these tapes. He doesn't have a lot of production. I've seen some people say he's a top-10 or top-12 pick, but I would not select him in the first round based on the production.
At the college level, with a man of this stature, you should walk out of the stadium going, "Holy cow, this Armstead is unbelievable!" I do not remember a film that I put down and said, "I'm going to go get my season tickets renewed and buy an Armstead jersey." I do not think it was a lack of effort. It was a lack of getting there and making the play --- not penetrating, not beating the block.
Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State
Having three different coordinators in three years could help explain why sometimes it's just hard to find Goldman. You don't really know what he has been coached. His mind could be spinning a little bit. But, as with Armstead, he's an underclassman who should have stayed in college for another year.
With Goldman, the center often snapped the ball with Goldman still in his stance. He has to get off the ball better. I thought the effort was marginal at times for a first-round pick, and when I watched him against Oregon, that game really bothered me. Against Notre Dame, the ball is bounced off the right side and I see Goldman with the right guard still looking for that ball carrier. I want to see him shed that block and be a part of the tackle.
Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson
Beasley is an edge rusher who needs to be in space to dominate. And when he is, he can use his explosive get-off and speed to turn the corner and create problems. He has 33 sacks, which is impressive. He can bench-press a lot, so he has some strength. But I have problems with some of these edge rushers who do not show up against the run.
You want to be a great pass-rusher? Ask Jared Allen and DeMarcus Ware. They know you have to stop the run to set up situations to be able to rush the passer.
We talked about Dante Fowler Jr.'s tremendous playing style. Wherever the ball carrier is, Fowler is going to be on the pile or at the bottom of it. He has a reckless abandon about him, and the great ones have that. When I watch Beasley, I don't feel like he wants to get into the bottom of that pile. I want to see him retrace and be a part of the tackle, be a part of the pile. Opposing coaches will shift a tackle and a tight end into an unbalanced line and find Beasley if they think they can overpower him -- he won't just be allowed to play in space.
Randy Gregory, OLB, Nebraska
The failed drug test at the combine is a big concern. Gregory is also a mysterious traveler. He committed to Purdue, was ineligible and had to go to junior college. He had some injuries in his career. He is really good pass-rusher, but he is a little bit like Beasley to me.
When you watch the sack reel, the splash reel, you say: "Give me Beasley! Give me Gregory!" But when I watch him stop the run, when I watch him for 75 plays in a game, there are too many plays I do not like. Remember, Melvin Gordon ran for 400 yards against Nebraska when Gregory was on the field. This bothers me when you are taking a guy in the top 10 or in the first round who gets stuck on blocks.
If I am coaching against Gregory, I want to tell our quarterback to stop the game, audible to 96 stretch, and run it right at No. 4 and see whether he can stop it.
Jordan Phillips, DT, Oklahoma
They credited Phillips with 39 tackles, but I had him with about 19. I watched him against West Virginia and just did not know what happened to him in that game. There would be a good play and then four or five we don't want to talk about. I wanted to see more. He looks like a nose tackle without much pass-rush ability, which makes me wonder why people are mentioning him for the first round.
Is it in him? Does he want to be great? That is the key. Do you really feel from this kid on this play or when you talk to him, do you really feel like he wants to split that double-team more than anything in life right now? I had questions about that after looking at the tape.
Owamagbe Odighizuwa, DE, UCLA
Odighizuwa was a 4-technique in a 3-4 defense at UCLA -- just a shade inside the offensive tackle -- and was really inhibited as a pass-rusher from that alignment. They made him their right or left end in their sub packages, and I liked his effort, but you don't know what he is going to be at the pro level. Is he going to be a defensive end or an outside linebacker in the sub packages, or is he going to be a base end like Armstead? You can see some really good things on tape -- grabbing hold of the tackle, looking for the ball carrier, shedding and making the play. The big question I have is whether he can play on his feet and learn to play in reverse.
Odighizuwa is a physical freak, and I want as many freaks as I can get on my team, but Jim Mora is an excellent defensive coach, and if you are playing a 3-4 scheme, why wouldn't you put one of your best athletes outside? Maybe his instincts aren't great? Maybe he is not good in reverse? He might not survive in there as a 4-technique. I have seen him get worked in there pretty good by some run schemes. Stanford got after him. Oregon got after him. I do not know where he fits in.
Landon Collins, S, Alabama
As much as I like Collins, he looks to me like a linebacker more than he does a safety, and that is a concern now that the safety position has become so critical in terms of coverage and disguises.
Collins is really good in close-quarter tackles near the line of scrimmage, but when you get him as a deep defender where he has to make one-on-one tackles in the open field and play the ball deep, I have concerns. Here is another concern: Nick Saban has a lot of great players, but there is a good chance they are going to play better for Saban than they are for you because he is that good of a coach.
Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
Once NFL teams find out you are a reluctant or poor tackler, they are going to bring their receiver in motion and are going to crack your safety. When that happens, your corner has to replace and make these tackles. They are basically not blocking him. So I am watching this Michigan State game against Oregon, and that is what happens. I wanted to see Waynes replace and make the tackle, but it was not happening. He is not really big, and on the tape that I have, he is not a great tackler. The same thing happened against Ohio State.
When they throw a bubble screen and a man tries to block you, you have to be able to grab that receiver around the sternum with another hand on his biceps. You have to be able to get rid of that block and make that tackle. When I watch some of the long runs against Michigan State, you know whose fault it is a lot of the time? It is the corners' fault. Waynes should use that 4.3 speed because he has it. I want to see it on the running plays. I want to see it on every play. Because we are talking about a first-round draft choice. I'm looking for a man who can do it all.
Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
Johnson also needs to show he can be a better tackler. He is lean, and I question what happens on game day when somebody comes out in two tight ends and two backs and decides to make this corner tackle. When they throw this bubble screen -- and here is a receiver blocking your corner -- can you get rid of the blocker and make the tackle? Or are you going to get stuck on a block, blocked into the post, and we're going to give up an 80-yard touchdown?
What happens when the ball is caught? Have you stood next to Calvin Johnson or Brandon Marshall? It's not easy bringing those guys down. I just think the top corners in the draft, the first-round guys, should be able to cover and be able to tackle. They have a role in the outcome of the running game, as well.
Jalen Collins, CB, LSU
Collins has the length we are looking for in our corners, pass-rushers and wide receivers. The problem is he has not started many games -- just 10 in all. It is tough to draft someone in the first round when he did not start much at his college. If a guy is not the best player at his college, how does he get picked in the first round ahead of more complete corners such as Senquez Golson and D'Joun Smith? That tremendous length is the reason.
There is a lot to like about Collins, but some of these young players need to realize it is not the right time to come out for the draft yet. They have not dominated from start to finish. I like guys who finish the job. I do not know that Collins has a complete body of work, but I do like his talent. He is intriguing, and I know he will do one thing I like, and that is tackle. I just need to know why he started so few games before I'm ready to sign off on him as an early choice.
Jay Ajayi, RB, Boise State
Ajayi is a big back with Ricky Watters-type size. He is a slasher with good production, but before drafting him I would need to find out whether we could coach him up in other areas of the game. Catching, running and protecting for the quarterback are important parts of being a back. Protecting the football is also important.
Pro coaches are going to blitz you. Rex Ryan is coming after you, and the running back has to pick up the blitz. Is this something we can train or is it something guys just don't get into? Ajayi is not the only one. If you cannot do this at the NFL level, you cannot play. Our quarterback will get crushed. When you look at a Frank Gore or a Matt Forte, these guys know who to block, know how to block and can't wait to block.
I'm worried about some of these college backs in protection. I see the running skills and hear the measurables, but when you break down pass protection, it has to be looked at carefully. That was a concern when I watched Boise State.
Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Oklahoma
Green-Beckham is a mystery man. He went to Oklahoma but never played there. The only film I have of him is from Missouri, when he was a freshman and sophomore. He has tremendous size. I just did not see him play to that size. He lined up on the left all the time when he did play, and there were too many plays where he was getting pinned into the boundary and became an ineffective receiver.
Route running is a work in progress for Green-Beckham. Then, when you get to the off-the-field issues and transferring to an archrival where he never played, are those things too much to take? I'm not quite satisfied with what I see on tape and what I'm hearing off the field.
Breshad Perriman, WR, Central Florida
If I'm a coach, do I want Perriman? Certainly. Do I want Sammie Coates? Yes. But they need to work on catching the football and their route running because it's far too inconsistent. That is why I don't have them in the first round.
Mel Kiper had Perriman at No. 10 in one of his mocks, and that was just too high for me because Perriman dropped so many balls. He ran a sub-4.3, which is hard to do. But the No. 1 thing you have to be able to do as a receiver is catch the ball reliably. And the one thing I can't understand with Perriman is you have all this talent, and I have plenty of tape where he is making circus catches, but there are way too many drops. These balls are easy catches.
Some of the passes were not on target, but you have to be a bad-ball receiver. I put on the tape and saw a scramble throw that Perriman should catch for a touchdown that he drops off his hands in the end zone. I've got 14 drops for him. No one is perfect, but if people are going to talk about you as a potential top-10 pick, the catching has to be more consistent.
D.J. Humphries, T, Florida
Humphries has all the measurable, and there is a buzz around him heading toward this draft, but he does not have a lot of playing experience. I'm surprised he is coming out, really. I do not see a lot of production. The Gators really struggled on offense. Shane Ray beat him up. But a lot of people are intrigued. I'm hearing first round on him. As a run-blocker, as a one-on-one pass protector and as a reliable backside left tackle, there is work to be done. I like Jake Fisher of Oregon better.