One of the quandaries facing teams looking to take a wide receiver early in the 2011 NFL draft is whether to go after a Randy Moss-like vertical threat or more of an all-around type of wideout in a Reggie Wayne mold.
The Moss types are often valued higher because of their long pass skills, but the master-of-all-trades receivers often are equally if not more valuable.
In 2007, Moss joined a New England Patriots team that had maybe the greatest dink-and-dunk pairing in NFL history in Tom Brady and Wes Welker. That duo's short pass abilities meant Moss could set his focus almost exclusively on running vertical routes. It was the primary reason he had the second-most vertical pass attempts, the seventh-highest vertical pass percentage in the league that season and scored 23 touchdowns.
In that same year, Wayne actually topped Moss in the vertical yards per attempt (YPA) category (14.7 to 11.5), even without a healthy Marvin Harrison in the lineup. He also nearly equaled Moss in vertical receiving yards (1,031 versus 1,124) and beat him in overall yards as well as the short, medium, deep and overall YPA categories.
This should be kept in mind when it comes to comparing the relative skills of A.J. Green and Julio Jones. Both are dominant physical talents, but after doing a review of their 2010 seasons, it is clear that Jones' skill set is much more varied than Green's.
The metrics are a very good way to illustrate this. First up is Green's total from the eight games in the tape breakdown (at Colorado, Vanderbilt, at Kentucky, Florida, at Auburn, Georgia Tech, UCF):
Now contrast those totals against the ones posted in the 10-game sample for Jones (Penn State, at Duke, at Arkansas, Florida, at South Carolina, Ole Miss, at Tennessee, at LSU Tigers, Mississippi State, Auburn, Michigan State).
Short passes
Jones' two-yard YPA edge here is significant but what might be more important is to note how these totals contrast with short pass YPA totals in the NFL.
An 8.1 YPA like the one Jones posted would have ranked fourth in the league last year (out of 90 qualifying wide receivers). That total is likely to drop against professional caliber competition, but even if it falls a yard, it would still leave Jones in the top 20 in that category.
Green's 6.1 short pass YPA mark would have placed him tied for 49th in that category. If that number dropped by a yard, it would rank 77th in the league.
This variance wasn't just a matter of Jones posting a couple of big gains on a quick catch and run. His median reception length on short passes was also two yards higher than Green's (nine yards versus seven yards).
Medium and long passes
All of those marks show that Green's short pass skills may leave something to be desired, but Jones also tops Green in two of the longer pass route depths. His medium pass YPA was nearly a yard higher (11.9 to 11.0) and his deep YPA was nearly five yards higher (19.5 to 14.6).
Green does take the vertical YPA lead when bomb routes are accounted for, but it is only a sixth-tenths of a yard advantage. To put that into perspective, consider that Brandon Lloyd led the NFL with 110 vertical targets last season. Multiply sixth-tenths of a yard by 110 passes and it equals a 66-yard edge. That kind of advantage is not enough to say that Green is a better vertical target.
None of this is meant to indicate that either receiver will be anything less than a dominant pass catcher at the professional level. It is rather to point out that Green looks to be more like Moss and Jones more like Wayne.
That may make Green a better fit with certain clubs who know how to most effectively utilize his skills, but Jones' edge in short pass productivity and his nearly equal vertical numbers means he's a higher percentage choice.
It also means he should be the first receiver picked on draft day.
KC Joyner, aka the Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. He also can be found on Twitter @kcjoynertfs and at his website. He is the author of "Blindsided: Why the Left Tackle is Overrated and Other Contrarian Football Thoughts."