Last year, when I created my first Big Board for the 2009 season, there were players like Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy who, barring injury, seemed likely to stay. They were highly rated players with a penchant for consistency. But I would also have put Taylor Mays in that group. Mays already had three full years as a starter in a top-flight program, and his physical tools were off the charts. Yet his play suffered so much in 2009 that he fell all the way to the second round of a draft that was, unfortunately for him, loaded with good safeties.
Now that I have my first Big Board in place for the NFL draft class of 2011, I decided to take a look at players who I think could have the most volatile stock. Meaning, these are the guys who could see themselves stay high on the board as their play matches the skill set, or, like QB Jevan Snead, suffer because of inconsistency.
The bottom line is these rankings are always about more than raw performance. Some of these players don't even project to play the same position at the NFL level. So a lot of factors are involved. But these are guys who I feel have more volatile stock compared to their peers on the board.
1. Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas
I bring up Snead for a reason. Mallett is in that profile as a QB who currently has physical tools that far outweigh his performance. Not to scoff at his 2009 campaign, during which he had a fantastic TD-INT ratio of 30-7, but Mallett can improve in every area. He needs to develop his footwork and pocket presence, and he'll also need to prove that he can be a quarterback, not just a thrower.
Leaving Michigan for Arkansas due to a change in coaching and systems will prove to be a great decision for Mallett in terms of development for an NFL career. In 2010, he'll need to improve on that 55.8 completion percentage, and he might be able to bring that number way up simply by checking down more often. Arkansas' running backs had really low receiving totals last season, often because Mallett knows he can make every throw downfield. If he can learn when to use the fastball and when to simply dump it off, it'll be hard to fall in the 2011 draft in the manner other QBs did in 2010.
2. Marvin Austin, DT, North Carolina
Austin reminds me of Everson Griffen in the sense that, from the moment each stepped on campus, you knew they were destined to get a shot in the NFL. But while Austin is a defensive tackle and Griffen a defensive end, they share a lack of consistency. Nobody questions Austin's ability to disrupt offenses as a penetrating defensive tackle, and playing for a coach with the defensive pedigree of Butch Davis should allow him to develop. But he'll move up or down this board based on an ability to bring it on every down.
3. Allen Bailey, DE, Miami (Fla.)
The fact that Bailey is on this list at all as a defensive end is a sign that he could continue to rise. That's because he hasn't been a 4-3 defensive end -- he switched to there later in the 2009 season and was exceptional when he did. If he can continue to develop his pass-rushing skills from the end of the line, he could continue to rise. But if he can't consistently perform to the degree he did late in 2009, when he appeared almost unblockable, he could drop. I'm optimistic, given that Bailey will only continue to gain skills at a still relatively new position.
4. Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
Jones, like Austin, is another player who seemingly had the physical pedigree to be an NFL player from the time he stepped on campus. But he needs to show more. While Jones has all the physical skills in the world -- and, it should be noted, he's a fantastic blocker for a team that we know loves to run the ball -- there were times when he was invisible in the passing game last year. And when the ball was thrown to him, his hands were a question. He'll need to overcome the problem of dropped balls. The good news for Jones is that he'll be just a junior in 2010, and the fact that he may still be living somewhat on hype and the confidence most evaluators have in his physical skills -- well, that means those physical skills are extremely highly regarded.
5. Rahim Moore, S, UCLA
Last year, Boise State cornerback Kyle Wilson opted to come back for his senior year. While Wilson managed to impress scouts during the all-star games and workout process enough to stick in the first round, he suffered a bit during the regular season because teams often didn't throw his way at all. What happened is that Wilson may have either baited some throws or relaxed a bit and found himself getting beaten a few times, even when the competition wasn't great. Similarly, Moore led the nation in INTs last year with 10. He'll need to grow as a player to remain impactful even when offenses are more aware of where he is during the game-planning process. It's hard to imagine he'll replicate those INT totals. If he does, he looks like a safe bet for the first round.
A few more:
Wisconsin OT Gabe Carimi is still more of a prototype at a position of great value than he is a guy whose tape is truly that outstanding. He'll need to continue to grow and add consistency. North Carolina LB Bruce Carter has been steady, but he needs to make more big plays. Ohio State DT Cameron Heyward was unblockable in some games and disappeared for stretches of others. Another player who needs to add consistency.
Keep up with Mel Kiper through the year via his home page.